Wednesday, August 10, 2005

Productivity SLOWS, LAbor costs RISE

IN an interest rate rising environment

When I look at the data I have to go on, one thing strikes me in the face. The fact that in the face of 5 years of record home building and auto sales andhow that affects so many related industries, lowest interest rates in 45 years and Bush stimulus package, we have witnessed by many measures the WEAKEST recovery from Recession in history?

Now while MANY will trumpet the recent job report, it is obvious to me, we continue to lose high paying jobs and replace them with minimum wage positions at WalMart and Target or Burger King......is it any wonder the national savings rate has fallen to ZERO?

25% of recent mortagages were made to "sub-prime" candidates! Many are being made with no background check and NO DOWN PAYMENTS. Also many are interest only loans! We are trolling for the final list of buyers! As we already see 70% home ownership, it is close to as good as it gets.

WE also know that HELOC's and cash out refi's contributed mightily to Consumer spending last few years.

So, if all we have is a consumption society/economy, when we know we are already at historic highs is debt, and have no savings, is this where we begin a new era? Is this where we should stand tall and bullish? after most of the AMMO is spent?

When the big houses also own Hedge Funds and come in through them and buy SPX futures to induce rallies? Where we are close to highs in insider selling and distribution?

DO as you must, this time when trouble starts I dare say a bell won't ring.

To continue this folly economy, housing prices must continue to rise. After a near vertical rise in some markets, should we expect this?

Bushites will sing the man's praises, each time I see him I quickly change the channel. Energy bill give aways to the haves, higher energy prices for the nots, the misallocations and inequities continue......as our boys keep dying at a faster pace.

I don't suspect too many of you think of IRAQ when cutting the pot roast.

Duratek

No comments: