Thursday, June 30, 2005

THE BATTLE BEGINS...TARRIFS NEXT?

CNOOC BLOCKED BY CONGRESS The great Depression was brought about in part by protectionist US policies.

Duratek......be careful now, be very careful. YIELD STILL coveted like fine china

MERCK

VIOXX Lawsuits will cause MRK to lower its dividend? PIXR misses.

D

100 POINT WOOF!

Of note: CPC .71 VIX 12 ?? VOLUME EXPANDS ON DECLINE

STILL no need for protection? OK!

D

MORE REACTION TO FED

He said she said about the fED

D

FED'S RAISE TO 3.25% Funds Rate

STory here "NEUTRAL" is said to be 1% higher at 4.25%. Head fake was mkt rising, now in some decline.

5 YEARS OF RECORD HOUSING NUMBERS.........5 YEARS!

HOW much gas in tank I ask? MY international friends, (and I saw this in Ireland last year when I visited) you have also seen housing prices RISE more than they have right to, KILLING first time buyers and strapping them with debt.

And the WORLD seems sychronized, but not to the good, with LOW LOW interest rates, WHY isn't anyone asking why is this happening?

D

FOMC

Open market committee here you view last 15 years of action on rates.

It held at near historic LOW of 1% for ONE YEAR! You may not find another time in history that ever happened.

And as many things happening now are historic extremes, I ask WHY then should you approach your life blood, your investments as "business as usual"?

D

Today's Data

Briefing.com Spending and Income In a word WOOF!!

D

Wednesday, June 29, 2005

GOLD SHARES

NEM chart Weekly BB look gives a better look at trend.

Series of lower highs and lower lows

D

Like Candy From A baby

OIL delcines.
ORCL beats.
Seasonal strength pre July 4th
Peppy Bush speach
futures were green
hedgies, playa's need rise
bonds were rallying (rates falling)
GDP rises at faster pace
inflation tame?

Market is red. (for now) it seems ALL this good news is a yawner.....or could they possibly be so anal as to worry about the FED meeting Thursday? EVERYONE knows what is coming.....yet they will mince and disect every stupid word they release.

The economy cannot support itself, YANK away low rates and it's over.

Duratek

GDP REVISED HIGHER to 3.8%. Let's DIG IN

WHat can I find in there?

Financial corporations reaped about 60% of domestic profits during the quarter !!!!!!

For the current quarter, which ends Thursday, economists now expect growth of 3.4%. The figures will be released on July 29, along with yet more revisions to data for the past three years (that should be interesting)

**Remember the GOV uses adjusted figures along with manipulated HEDONIC pricing.

GDP LED by CONSUMER SPENDING.

Business investment slowed to 4.1% growth, its lowest growth rate in two years. Inventory building added 0.7 percentage points to growth.

INFLATION? The core personal consumption expenditure price index - the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of consumer inflation - increased at a 2% annual rate, close to the top of the Fed's comfort zone

DETAILS ON CONSUMER SPENDING

Details Consumer spending contributed 2.5 percentage points of the 3.8% growth. Spending on nondurable goods increased 5.5%, spending on services gained 3.1% and spending on durable goods increased 1.8%. Consumer spending had increased 4.2% in the fourth quarter

WHAT Business investment?

Business investment contributed 0.4 percentage points to growth. Investments in equipment and software grew 6.1%, a sharp decline from the 18.4% increase in the fourth quarter.

Finally:

Investments in business structures fell 2.4%, the 10th quarter of declines in the past 14 quarters Investments in residences increased 11.5% after a 3.4% gain in the fourth quarter. Homebuilding added 0.6 percentage points to growth Exports increased 8.9%, while imports grew 9.6% Inventories grew by $66.8 billion after growing $47.2 billion in the fourth quarter.

**Growing inventories is something to watch, financial companies make up over 60% of corp profits.

Our economy IS HOME BUILDING, but now 70% already own. THE FALL FROM GRACE will be of EPIC proportions!

Duratek

CRAMER LIKES GOOGLE

Cramer's 'Real Money' Radio Recap: Go Google By TSC Staff6/28/2005 4:07 PM EDTClick here for more stories by TSC Staff
Investors waiting for Internet superstar Google (GOOG:Nasdaq - commentary - research) to fall off a cliff are going to be waiting a long time, Jim Cramer said in his "Real Money" radio show Tuesday.
The Google story, which added a chapter Monday when the shares jumped over $300 for the first time, is altogether different than the high flyers that crashed in the last 1990s, because it's about "earnings not eyeballs," Cramer says. As a result, both retail and institutional investors are lapping it up, fearful they will miss the one true tech grower. Furthermore, mutual fund managers want to make sure they have it listed in their holdings with the end of the quarter in just a few days.

Cramer argued that Google is not just a momentum story, either; it holds up on relative valuation. By using fellow Internet star Yahoo!'s (YHOO:Nasdaq - commentary - research) forward price earnings multiple of 50 as a comp, he came up with a Google price target of $350 based on the company earning $7 a share next year.
Nevertheless, don't jump in with both feet just yet, as Google shares could weaken next week once end-of-quarter window dressing comes to an end. Once that's done, however, the stock is probably headed upward for the rest of the year, Cramer said.

**Recap, Cramer likes Goog, Cramer sees higher in 2005 to $350, a "FAIR" and just valuation.

FORGET it is near 25X sales and book value. After all Cramer SAYS it's a value play! LOL

Take note: GOOG has 100 M shares NOT in float yet. OH, GOOG is 50% ABOVE it's 200 day moving average!

WHEN IT FALLS, and it will, as FAST as it rose! IMHO

Duratek

Tuesday, June 28, 2005

SIX 911 References in Bush Speach...call 911

a decent leader as US President is MIA.

He started his speach with 911 reference. IRAQ is battle front in War on terror. How horrible the bombings are, how we'll take the fight to terrorists before they get us here, his duty as President.

Funny thing, maybe not so, IRAQ had a brutal dictator, a murderer with 2 sadistic offspring, ONE thing they didn;t have was a country full of outsiders, full of Al Queda, full of insurgents..........but after we invaded Iraq...........they are sure there now! It is because of the actions of this PResident, not anything this is all happening.

Tonights speach was to buy time? it offered nothing new but the same OLD tired BS rhetoric. I know I have readers from all over the world, I am proud of that. I don't like to preach poilitcs, you come here for Market commentary, but all the things going on now WILL effect world economies.

A LID is on showing the REAL WAR to the people, Iraqi body count DENIED/RESTRICTED, showing of any coffins coming home DENIED.

Good things may indeed be going on for some IRaqi's, but the death count is alarmingly GROWING, not receding. someone ought to inform Dickless Chenny on the facts of the war, the insurgents are not on the run Dick, only Haliburton for screwing the Gov and cheating the taxpayers.

Is this a corrupt Gov? I think it's very possible. And A lot else I think I'll keep to my self.

I'm glad I watched baseball this evening instead of LIVE speach......

Duratek.

Self Serving Idiot Foxes Running the Hen House PAss Energy Bill

Energy Bill

The 1,250-page bill >> D comment* Do you think our Neanderthal Congressman too busy with lobbyyist lunches read even a FRACTION of the 1250 pages?

Senate approves far-reaching energy bill * Do you think something written 5 years ago will be FAR REACHING?

offers $16 billion in tax breaks and incentives to boost domestic production. * WONDERFREAKINFUL!!! JUST what the Energy companies needed TAX BREAKS! Give the damn money to CONSUMERS!!! Isn't gouging the American publice enough incentives with HIGH GAS PUMP PRICES??

"I urge the House and Senate to resolve their differences quickly and get a good bill to my desk before the August recess," Bush said in a statement. *sure, before everyone comes to their senses!

Even as industry leaders and the White House offered kudos, knotty problems like the bill's price tag and lawsuit protection for makers of a water-polluting fuel additive must be solved before Congress can deliver a bill for Bush to sign into law. * More protection for lawsuits for killing people and our environment will make us less fuel efficient!??

"This is the first step on what will be a long road" toward more domestic-energy supplies, Bodman said. *THEY do not get it! WE need LESS OIL....MORE conservation!

This bill sucks! (I can say that!) WHERE IS ONE line on making the idot US car makers INCREASE their mileage EFFICIENCY???

Toyota will kick our bums with a 10 year head start on RATIONAL GAS MISER FUEL/ELECTRIC HYBRIDS.

WHAT need for "alternative fuels?" when it TAKES ENRGY to create energy? like Hydrogen?

A SIMPLE MANDATE from the US GOV to INCREASE AVG gas mileage even just 5 mile per gallon would DO MORE than this pathetic bill being trumpeted as GOOD legislation and just lines the greasy pockets of the in crowd??

Guess what, and that wouldn't cost a damn thing!

Chief among them are a ban on product-defect lawsuits against makers of a water-polluting fuel additive called MTBE, and a provision allowing oil and gas drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which is a top White House priority. * Do I need to say anything here?

SOme stories from Hybrid owners Technology even better now

20 year LOW in overall fuel economy in this country RUB your eyes, YES written in 2000!!! EVEN MORE SUV'S on road now it must be worse!

"Consumers want cars that have certain performance features. We sell cars that get 40 miles per gallon, but fewer than 2 percent of consumers buy them."Gloria BergquistAlliance of Automobile Manufacturers * taken from last link.....do you think ADVERTISING has anything to do with it!

If we could get all the energy out of a gallon of gasoline and apply it to overcoming the rolling resistance of a car, we could get about 400 miles per gallon. But the internal engine resistance multiplies the force required by roughly five, meaning the best we could hope for is about 80 miles a gallon. The engineering constraints of getting useful work out of expanding hot gases cuts that figure by 50 per cent to about 40 miles per gallon. So better fuels and fuel injection could improve mileage, but not stupendously. FACTOID

YOU make it this far? there's more!

An ambitious agenda to achieve those goals has been produced by Set America Free, a group set up by R. James Woolsey, Frank Gaffney and other national security hawks.
They advocate using existing technologies — not pie-in-the-sky ideas like hydrogen fuel cells — to wean the auto industry from its reliance on petroleum. Hybrid electric cars such as the Toyota Prius, which run on both electric motors and gas engines, already get more than 50 miles per gallon. Coming soon are hybrids that can be plugged into a 120-volt outlet to recharge like a cellphone.


They'll get even better mileage.

Set America Free estimates that if we convert entirely to flexible-fuel, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, U.S. gasoline imports in 20 years will drop by two-thirds.

Here's the kicker!!!!!!!

There is, of course, a catch. Moving to hybrid electric cars won't be cheap. Automakers would have to retool their wares, gas stations would have to add alcohol-fuel pumps, parking lots would have to add electric outlets. Set America Free puts the price tag at about $12 billion over the next four years.

*D comment......that's LESS than the entire energy bill!!!

MArket Action

Yesterday's action suggests a pause in the new downtrend, I don't expect spirited buying, but let's see how much the market can take back.

D

Monday, June 27, 2005

OIL

Cliff Droke on oil

And I'm Just Wondering

.....If the almost daily NYSE larger volume than NAZ is the same reason as the tightening spread between lower grade corporate bonds and treasuries.

That Elvis has already left the building, that speculators have already lost their appetite for riskier plays.

Now some high profile stuff like GOOG get played, but in general when compared to yesteryear the volume of NAZ is down and the fact NYSE volume outpaces it is a NEW occurance. SOmething worth watching.

Letter writers STILL overwhelmingly bullish, see this as ONLY a correction/consolidation of the gains. WHo are we to argue, MR MARKET will decide. AHH this just in GOOG to $302! LOL

Top looks like its in here, a new lower low.

3348 TRAN LOW of 2005 within spittin distance.

VIX above 20 EMA but at a low 12.52.

20 EMA turning down here.

Duratek

CNN Take on Bonds

"Boom Or Bust?"

Also, if stock dividend yields avg around 2%, Treasuries 3.9%, and the FED funds rate is 3% and rising.........it is OBVIOUS stock yields are STUCK near historic lows, and do NOT entice investors.

What must happen is some how or another the AVG SPX dividendd yield must rise to near 6%, to accomodate the risk involved in holding stocks.

I read an article where this is close to happening in Japan. We have in an odd sort of way accomodated the world's excess savings by using near 80% of it. But the imabalances increase with every dollar of IOU!

D

Sunday, June 26, 2005

WHAT "IF" AL GORE HAD BEEN PRESIDENT

I don't mean to offend any Bush supporter, but here it goes. If AL GORE had been not been CHEATED out of his Presidency by the BUSH boobsey squad, AMerica would be safer, stronger, and loved the world over.

NYTIMES Article (must be purchased for full read)

EDITORIAL DESK June 17, 2005, Friday As Toyota Goes ... By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN (NYT) Op-Ed 822 words Late Edition - Final , Section A , Page 27 , Column 1 ABSTRACT - Thomas L Friedman Op-Ed column says General Motors, which based its business strategy on building gas-guzzling cars and scoffing at hybrid technology, should be taken over by Toyota, pioneer in hybrid engine technology; says that technology could rescue American economy, relieve its oil addiction and end dependence on Middle Eastern oil autocrats; scores Bush administration for its utter indifference to developing geo-green strategy.

Can purchase from his site

But basically, the article suggests that GM and Gov policy have DROPPED the ball, having MANY TIMES VETOED or stalled ANY ATTEMPT at fuel mileage conservation!!! ANd that the technology ALREADY EXISTS to wean us off of foreign oil.

I also summise that all this time spent on "HYDROGEN FUEL CELLS" has mostly been wasted, that it takes FOSSIL FUEL to create hydrogen fuel and that it is also VERY EXPENSIVE to manufacture. The infrastructure required would be immense.

BUT<>oil from is inexecusable. What he offers is a TIRED and OLD POS bill from over 4 years ago!!! Probably giving his cronies incentives and FOCUSING on OIL exploration from precious ALASKAN WILDERNESS, which would provide a DROP in bucket of needs.

Our ECONOMY NEEDS to be a leader in this area, what we are is like an impotent old drunk who wets in his pants! INDEED BUSH is seen as many as the WORST AMERICAN President in the history of this country. And one of the least intelligent.

YEAH, OLD WOODEN no personality GORE would have been a GREAT President, do we want personality, or should we desire the highest intelligence and steady unflappable personality? NOT "bring her on" ignorance. "Hey look at me, I mispronounce words, I'm funny, human, avg guy like you..."

FED Chairman SIR Greenspan, (SOB was knighted!) instigated STOCK BUBBLE<>

LOW RATES are here to stay for now, MULTI DECADE BOND BULL MKT LIVES. and why? because it has been used to fuel the recovery and DELAY the SECULAR BEAR MKT and the coming K WINTER.

We have 70% Home Ownership in the US. HOW MUCH more growth is left?

OVER 30% of homes bought were either INVESTORS or 2nd homes. OVER 30% were NOT PURCHASED as PRIMARY LIVING QTRS!! THAT IS A MANIA!

Median HOME PRICES have been falling, 40% of homes bought are NOT YET UNDER CONSTRUCTION.

ALL I READ this week was that 2 day decline WAS expected, JUST NORMAL, STAY LONG!

Time for a lONG bike ride, away from this, to clear my head. I bumped into friend in the real Estate business, he sees first hand what I have been saying, he sees ALL these houses (he said 50% of his sales) being BOUGHT for SPECULATION!!!

Not a PEEP from GREENIE, NOR BUSH, NOT EVEN ABOUT CHINA BUYING up our companies. F!!**& we have been sold out!!!

A SEVER stock market decline is VERY VERY possible. given bullish sentiment. IMHO

Duratek

Saturday, June 25, 2005

JUNE 24th Briefing.com "Story Stocks"

Jun 24, 3:07 pm ET

Xyratex Ltd.: 15.85 -3.52: The digital revolution has resulted in mind-boggling levels of data, which in turn needs to be captured, processed, and stored. Information is generated from a wide variety of sources from mission critical applications, e-mails, the Internet, to multimedia platforms all increasing demand for data storage. IDC forecasts worldwide disk storage system shipments by 2008 will reach 5,444 petabytes (1 mln gigabytes) - a 45% increase from 2003 levels. Further, enterprise data is becoming increasingly critical commanding a larger share of IT budgets for hardware, software, and services. This is where Xyratex comes in. A spin-off of IBM (IBM), this company manufactures modular enterprise class data storage subsystems and storage process technology and despite reporting earnings doubled in the second quarter, disappointing guidance sent shares on a tailspin.

Excluding non-operating items, earnings came in at $13 mln, or $0.45 per share - six cents above analysts expectations. The top line expanded 57% year/year to $169.6 mln and 19% sequentially. These eye catching figures were pushed aside as the market focused on its guidance, which was negatively impacted by a shift in revenues at Seagate. With the revenue shift and increased expenses for its acquisition of Oliver Design, earnings were hit hard for Q3. XRTX sees EPS in the range of $0.20-0.27 well below consensus at $0.41. On revenues it forecasts a range of $155-165 mln vs. $168.98 mln consensus.

Its recent acquisition of Oliver Design, a designer and manufacturer of disk drive media cleaning technology, is expected to be accretive to revenues and earnings this year adding $30-35 mln and $0.13-0.17, respectively. According to analysts, company's guidance is still less than the full contribution of OD. For the full year, the company did raise revenue estimates by $6-16 mln to $660-675 mln, while despite lower Q3, left full year earnings unchanged at $1.50-1.60 (consensus $1.56).

The upside was driven by its Storage Infrastructure business, which accounts for 40% of the top line up from 24% in 2004. This growth engine produced revenue growth of 28.7% sequentially. Management attributed the strength to solid hard disk volumes, increased demand for real density points, and new products from drive vendors. The Storage Network Systems (other 60%) generated 13% sequential growth in revenues to $100.5 mln on continuing strong demand of NetApp. XRTX said it shipped 43.6 petabytes of disk during the quarter up 18.7% q/q. The SI business contributed to the gain in gross margins from Q1 to 21.9%. Management forecasts margins will remain in the 21-22% range for the full year.

As expected, the market chose to focus on lower guidance sending shares down another three bucks in early trading. We suggest investors focus on the bigger picture here and take advantage of the exaggerated selling. It's reasonable to expect, a company like Xryatex with its large scale products and small customer base, lumpiness in quarterly earnings. This British company offers a strong growth profile generating 32% and 37% revenue growth over the last two years, on target for 42% in 2005. We feel considering Xyratex's market position, strong balance sheet, and compelling valuation of 9.8x forward earnings, investors will be rewarded over the long-run. ---Kimberly DuBord, Briefing.com




09:50 ET

Solectron: 3.74, -0.08: Solectron, one of the largest electronics manufacturing services (EMS) companies in the world, reported fiscal third quarter earnings after the close on Thursday. Following its second consecutive disappointing quarter, the company recorded Q3 EPS, excluding non-recurring items, of $0.04 on $2.6 billion in revenues versus the consensus estimate of $0.04 on $2.7 billion. While earnings were in-line with estimates, revenues failed to meet expectations and marked a 14.4% decline from the year-ago period. The company attributed the lower revenues to weaker demand in the networking and consumer segments, offsetting relative strength in computing and storage, communications, industrial, and automotive.

Looking ahead, the company issued mixed guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter, projecting EPS of $0.03-0.05 on $2.4-2.6 billion in revenues versus the consensus estimate of $0.04 on $2.7 billion. Concurrent with the Q3 results, the company stated that "(they) are pleased that in a lower revenue environment (they) delivered profitability within (their) guidance and achieved strong cash flow generation again (for the) quarter".

In response to a challenging pricing environment and increased global competition, Solectron has taken great strides in improving operations and enhancing relationships with key partners and suppliers through the institution of the Lean Six Sigma program. The program, which is based on the world-renowned Toyota Production System, has been the guiding light for the company's overall strategy and a differentiating factor within the industry. As management forges ahead with their turnaround efforts, the permeation of the disciplined operating principles should help reinvent the business. Moreover, strategic efforts to aggressively cut costs and diversify operations will help dictate the company's ability to successfully restructure itself and generate future growth.

Although Solectron has shown modest improvements in working capital and operational efficiencies as a result of ongoing efforts, the nature of the EMS industry imposes inherent risks, including high stock volatility, industry overcapacity, and increased global competition. The aforementioned industry-specific risks are largely related to changing demand forecasts and shifting cost structures. As such, the integration of strategic outsourcing plans have directed manufacturing trends to lower-cost Asian countries. The successful ability to create comparative advantages through cost reductions and streamlined operations continues to dictate the low-margin business environment.

Despite trading down considerably since December, Solectron's shares have failed to reverse momentum as the company's turnaround story continues to unfold. Having reported modest earnings on sequentially lower revenues, the company's fundamental shape remains uncertain. However, ongoing restructuring efforts and Lean Six Sigma program initiatives should help drive expectations for improved sales and margin growth. As valuation levels have yet to settle behind volatile price behavior and impending fundamentals, the company's current multiple of 50.4x trailing earnings trades at a premium to industry peers Flextronics (FLEX) and Jabil Circuits (JBL), which trade at 23.7x and 33.8x respectively. Until the company hardens its position within the competitive landscape and increases earnings visibility, the premium multiple will remain unjustified. ---Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com




09:01 ET

Page One - Sell-Off Not a Big Surprise: : The S&P 500 index was up four of the past five weeks. The week ended June 3 it dropped a minuscule 0.2%. It has been a good run. In hindsight, it is thus not surprising that some bearish sentiment finally burst through.

The sharp 13 point drop in the S&P yesterday was largely attributed to rising oil prices. That indeed was what sparked the selling, but it was also a case of underlying concerns finally rising to the surface

Earnings growth is clearly slowing. Second quarter earnings will be up about 8%. That is down from 13% in the first quarter, and 21% in the fourth quarter. That 8% is heavily bolstered by large gains in the energy and materials sectors. The broader array of companies is experiencing an even more significant slowdown.

There are also concerns about the economic outlook. Forecasts for second half GDP remain near 3%, but many traders are concerned that a more significant slowdown could develop. May durable goods orders released this morning showed a strong 5.5% gain, but that was due to the volatile aircraft orders component. Excluding transportation, orders the past three months have been 0.1%, -0.7%, and for May, -0.2%. This trend suggests that business investment may stall in the second half of the year.

None of this means that the stock market is in deep trouble. It is not at all surprising that economic and profit growth rates should slow from the boom levels of 2004. And, there is still good growth in each of those key metrics. But it is also not surprising given the run-up of over 5% in the S&P 500 index the past two months that a bout of selling would hit.

In terms of news this morning, oil prices are holding just below $60 a barrel this morning. A.O. Smith, PMC-Sierra, Maverick Tube, and Tektronix warned. Legg Mason picked up Citigroup's asset management business in exchange for its broker dealer.

The market is poised to open flat to slightly higher. Yesterday's sell-off was not the start of something big or an assessment that $60 a barrel is a magic number under which the economy will collapse. It was a significant down day in what is still a trading range market. Dick Green, Briefing.com

new look

is old look, I hope this helps spacing problem blog developed.

D

IRAN elects Hardliner

"What they (Western countries) have is not democracy, but rule of trickery. It's parties and capitalists who get the vote of the people in their own favor to fill their pockets," he told worshippers at Friday prayers.

**Our system is the best, but those words are not without some truth. This country is run by the haves, by a secret club....by the lobbyist groups, special interests, a suptreme court that doesn't uphold the constitution and the right of property, of FOUL and unconstitutional taxation.....allows passage of patriot act and loss of more civil liberties, allows creation of unconstitutional fed reserve system...the country is run by BAnkers who then in turn get passage of strictist bankruptcy law on record.

Also REP's trying to shove appointments down our throat and evenafter what they did to Clinton, using same method, crying FOUL with the Filibuster.

Some changes are needed, who will bring them? no one I see. ANY VOICE that comes against the Bush doctrine is stricken down as a traitor.....and bogus FLAG BURNING LAW PASSES, because most in House too scared to have name as a no...do YOU see anyone burning flags anywhere?

In this country, there isn;t even anyone behind the friggin curtain!

I LOVE our fighting troops, as most pay the news from IRAQ no mind, these BRAVEST of the brave doing what they are told and dying for a cause that shouldn't have been ours, and there is NO way out.

The deal was for the OIL, and look where that got us, if not the worst American President in History who then?

DID I Nail it?

Thursday Missive and SPX/VIX Ratio
TA DA (from my blog Thursday AM)

NDX BB bands tightening,
IMHO NEXT sharp move is down.
UNOTICED by the gang of hypsters
is the steep selloff of the TRAN INDEX.
All coming with near record lows in the VIX.
SPX/VIX ratio sprinting to ever more extreme reading.
http://tinyurl.com/78ynd **(notice TRIPLE TOP
and EACH time it has reached this NEW bull
extreme a selloff followed IMHO breathes
some credability into this indicator I mention often)

DPosted by: Duratek / 8:48 AM 0 comments

Friday, June 24, 2005

CLOSED ON THE LOW TICK

NAZ 20 EMA now declining,
was close 1500.18....
just coincidence it didn't break 1500?

BIG buy came in on Q's at the low tick,
it bounced but then came back
to within 2 cents of that buy.
That BUY is why it bounced at that point.
NOT coincidence.

D

HOUSING DATA NO ONE ELSE WILL SHOW

In other economic news, sales of new homes climbed to the second highest level in history, but median home prices fell sharply in May. The government reported that sales of new single-family homes rose by 2.1 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.3 million homes, but the median cost dropped 6.5 percent to $217,000.

**HAS "IT" already begun? ALL for today, maybe I'll post tomorrow something. WATCH last half hour today, see if traders MUST hold stocks thru weekend. Some trendlines being broken.

D

CYCLE PATHS

June Contrary Investor

New Home Sales Miss the Mark

Along with last months DOWNWARD revision

Details of DURABLES less than enDURING!

Highlights (from briefing.com)
May durable goods orders 5.5%, ex-transportation -0.2%.
Key Factors
Aircraft orders provided the stupendous growth: civilian 165%, defense 17%. Left transportation orders at 21% (22% yoy).
The -0.2% dip in non-transportation orders is concerning given the lack of upturn since Jan.
Detail shows May declines in machinery, metals and computer/electronics.
Capital goods (and non-defense) jumped 14.5% (25% yoy). Ex-air/defense cap goods orders fell -2.3% (8% yoy).
Business demand, profits, large corporate cash flows and low financing rates will support strong business investment in 2005.

OUTSOURCING GOOD FOR US?

ALL service sector jobs in jeopardy, IBM hires in INDIA as it FIRES in US. ALso ALCOA lays off 6,500 workers.

D

Feul Cell News

http://money.cnn.com/2005/06/24/Autos/honda.reut/index.htm

..."fuel cell cars could gain 5% of market by 2020.."

To do so, fuel cell stations would be needed. HYGS could play here, do some DD on it. I don't YET own it, but have been following it closely. They bought a Canadian CO. in the forefront Stuart Energy recently.

BUT 15 years is a LONG time to wait...many cell co's won't probably make it that far with cash burning fast. And WHICH technology will win?

DID you see durable goods this AM up 5%?? more info not yet out to see what drove it, watch bonds on this news.

D

Everyone SEES the COMET COMING

UNLIKE a certain STOCK or commodity, IMHO the housing market, talked about in so many respects so far as being a BUBBLE, will NOT delay its eventual bursting.

Because unlike everyone observing it's a humid day...they are right, it's a humid day....certainly sooner or later cool weather will come.....but it is not the WORDS which are telling, it IS the ACTIONS of those observing which cast the ballot.

And the record sales of homes, the 1/3 of homes bought for SPECULATION, the PRICE action of homes are what I DERIVE my contrarian opinion about its eventual outcome.

ALSO, I can spot MANY stories about how the "housing BOOM has legs". MUCH of the stock action in housing has been BAD BETS by the shorts covering.

IN the piece Russell posted last night in Economist, it talked about how GREENSPSN SHOULD be talking about and also raising rates more aggresively.

BUT as the FED rate has gone from 1% to 3%, the 10 YR has fallen from around 4.9% to under 4% !!!

The FED has been LIQUIFYING as the other side of mouth has tightened, indeed it is the FLOW of fiat currency that matters most. and the $$ getting recent boost from the even more feeble other fiat currencies like the EURO.

UNLIKE STOCKS, homes are NOT liquid, and cannot be sold QUICKLY (the speculators) to RAISE CASH.

The FED, if wanting to really slow housing, would be SELLING treasuries, not buying them.

I was riding my bike yesterday, saw a house for sale, beautiful country like setting, farm and horse country. 2.4 acres, 4200 SQ ft, OLD OLD Colonial, house in NORMAL area without house boom gets maybe $150,000. PRIVATE SALE $695,000

I then look at my house, not 50 yrs old, but 20, all modern and fixed up on golf course lot, that would make my house worth..$900K (asessed value was under $500K) and I think....BS my house is worth IMHO maybe $700K and that's based on orig buy plus money we put in and a MODEST % of increase in value.

WE IN A HEEP A TROUBLE BOSS.

Thursday, June 23, 2005

PUNISHED ENOUGH?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=dwa Maybe Dreamworks is NO PIXR, but HAS it been punished enough for recent lame releases?

IS below IPO price, but not much price history to go on, appears oversold, was so at $26, did we get price reversal today at lows? 3X normal volume too.

IMHO a break of $26 would be promising short term, not sure what else may be a problem. MOVIE attnedence has been down so far this year and summer, lack of good films?

D

My EMAIL

For any reason you can email me at Duratek@yhoo.com

But normally, anything I could say in private I could say on my blog. I appreciate the comments, makes this site even more useful. I will continue to try and keep it active and updated on a daily basis.

Duratek

FEDX Warns and gets Downgrades

Story to above.

OIL is DOUBLE what it was 2 years ago! SO, of course there is NO inflation!

WAKE UP AMERICA! The FED and Bush policy have SOLD OUT this country from under our feet, now with LOW LOW approval ratings and assinine innefective policies and ideas for SS etc, future near term is bleak IMHO.

WHAT DAMN energy bill wouldn't have incentives for GREATER FUEL EFFICIENCY??!! LOL Give ME a break.

Right now Hydrogen is CLEAN FUEL, also MUCH more expensive fuel which ALSO takes ENERGY to produce....meaning fosil fuels needed to produce Hydrogen.

The CHINESE are set to take the money and run......to US and worlwide companies and buy them out....all the while they are RAMPING UP their military. Think about that the next time you enter Target or WalMart.

Duratek

My Bond Tracking LIST

I developed this list of 7 funds to track reaction to interest rate, also wanted to see if by diversifying I could protect principle, keep it stable while collecting the dividends or reinvesting them. In about 12 months of tracking the high was up $6,500 (based on 1,000 shares each) and low was down about $4,500. CUrrent position is UP $1,000 on about $113,000 invested. Again the 1,000 shares could be 100 shares for this purpose.

So far it has done just that, ignoring the ups and downs, it is 1% above it's buy in price. Past performance wouldn't guarantee future results. BLE is a large Muni fund. I would probably add a few more like GIM and even PGH or PVX that generate dividends to add greater diversity and hopefully stability of principle.

The $1K up includes 4 of the 7 that are below buy in and 3 that are above, obviously the 3 above were greater than 4 of the 7 losing. IMHO this approach, not looking for the ONE RISKY HIGH FLYER, but spreading it around can reduce risk.

Recent falling interest rates has not had a great effect on this group of funds.

This is for "entertainment" purposes only....of which I hope I do. ALso my attempt to bring a greater variety of opinion and commentary to my blog. And encourage you to think for yourself and control your own financial destiny. It is in Wall Street own best interest to dumb us down.

BLE
12:00pm
$15.12
+0.02
12,900 Volume
Chart, Profile, more...
EFR
12:04pm
17.78
-0.06
58,700
Chart, Profile, more...
ETG
12:08pm
19.45
-0.04
84,500
Chart, Profile, more...
EVT
12:07pm
20.75
-0.05
79,700

Chart, Profile, more...

JTP
12:01pm
13.97
-0.03
24,200
Chart, Profile, more...
PCN
12:02pm
15.36
+0.04
45,300

Chart, Profile, more...
RCS
12:06pm
12.64
+0.07
21,800

SIEZING OF HOMES??

I thought Supreme Court's job was to PROTECT our LIBERTIES?

IN a SUPER CYCLE BEAR MARKET, everyone loses.

D

TA DA

NDX BB bands tightening, IMHO NEXT sharp move is down.

UNOTICED by the gang of hypsters is the steep selloff of the TRAN INDEX.

All coming with near record lows in the VIX. SPX/VIX ratio sprinting to ever more extreme reading.

D

These Headlines Caught my EYE. AYE!

KPMG trying to SLITHER out of open ended lawsuit liability.

WHAT SS Surplus!?? They won't give up on ludicrous idea.

Housing BOOM has legs DENIAL brings center contrarian view, too many calls of a BUBBLE help it linger.

PARIS (Reuters) - U.S. direct investment abroad hit a record $252 billion in 2004, driven by rising corporate merger and acquisition activity, which picked up more generally last year and continues to do so in 2005, the OECD said on Thursday. ....while INWARD investment lags

I guess the lessons of 2000 are all but forgotten! DAMN the Bear has TORN to shreds all types of traders.

New highs in UTES a sign of desperate YIELD seekers the WORLD OVER (scurry for foreign and domestic Bonds) and well as PLUNGING LONG term yields.

HOW is it that Pension funds and stock INVESTMENT holdings of corporations probably STILL list yearly gains of 7-8% ??? And STOCK OPTIONS STILL NOT EXPENSED!!??


I STILL believe market is NEAR an important TURNING POINT, IMHO.

D

Wednesday, June 22, 2005

PARABOLIC SPIKES

Is there any doubt how our current condition will play out?

D

The CHEATING CONTINUES

Floor trading abuses and now Bear Sterns being probed.

Late trading, use of cell phones to tip off "buddies" of pending large transactions, the IN CROWD is still sticking it to the "little guy".

Smart money IMHO has exited and has been selling to the bagholders.

D

TRADING RANGE SINCE 1998

10 YR DOW Notice how WEAK RSI and MACD are to market action, descending peaks, bearish divergence, IMHO AS SPX/VIX ratio had been making new highs!

Now, if you look further back to 1995 (DOW 4K) IMHO ALL of that could be retraced.

D

YIELD SIGNS

P and F 10 yr NO longer sporting 7% bullish yield objective as it was, NOW showing 3.1% Bearish (on yield) PO

MACD about to go below zero, but RSI nearing overbought.

MOST likely to see LOWER BB

Bigger picture is bleak HOW useful are P and F charts?, they're fine until trend is reversed, for MONTHS it proposed a 7% yield objective for 10 yrs, now it doesn't.

BOND action is anything but bullish IMHO all in backdrop to rising FED funds, yield curve is flat lining.

D

Ready to break out? Magna

INsider info They own Racetracks, see recent news. Steady insider buying, stock gone sideways for over a year.

Daily overbought, but weekly chart shows possibility of MACD going positive. SO, I am not sure if BASING or going nowhere fast. OLD highs still stand

D

Yields and Bullish Sentiment

IBD on yields

Suprise Business Week is Bullish

5 INSIDER SELLS

FORBES STREETWALKER Interesting, one of the stocks BLUD, was stock Cabot was touting, and has since exited.

D

Bitch Slapped

NAZ 2100 short lived again, at least 5 X this year it has served up and volleyed the index backward.....I believe some kind of correction may have begun, SLOW getting going as it is.

Bond yields again UNDER 4%, LOW RATES have NOT sent home buying into another level of frenzy......."them bellies full, but they hungry.." NOT.

D

Financials Leading the Decline?

Morgan Stanley's 2Q Profit Dips 24 PercentWed 9:47AM ET - AP

Profit at embattled Wall Street brokerage Morgan Stanley fell 24 percent in the second quarter, the company announced Wednesday, due to difficult market conditions and higher legal expenses in connection with high-profile lawsuits.

*headline.....stocks higher, oil lower (no direct relationship can be proved) as the "headline writers" hypster dufuses" run out of TAGLINES.

BOND movement MOST telling, because Bill Gross says FED will begin LOWERING rates soon? Is that statement not self promoting his large bond portfolios? Or are BONDS hinting at economic slowdown.

Then WHAT is causing yields to stay near 40 yr lows?

Yesterday we had 5 yr at 3.83% and 10 year at 4.05% not MUCH of a premium for holding an extra 5 years.

I SMELL burning rubber!

Duratek

Top in energy?

BUffet on oil His entry into $$ short called the BOTTOM of that move

D

Tuesday, June 21, 2005

CRIPPLING WEALTH by Dr. Richebacher

CRIPPLING "WEALTH"
by Dr. Kurt Richeb├Ącher

Let us start with a quote from Friedrich von Hayek: "The means of perception employed in statistics are not the same as those employed in economic theory." American economists think far too much in statistical terms, regardless of underlying economic processes. While the statistics do, indeed, show general enrichment, in reality, there is none at all. The homeowner has zero gain in his comfort of living or income.

This perception of wealth has its true basis in nothing but the famous "greater fool theory"; that is, in the expectation that there will be a greater fool to buy the acquired house later at a higher price. Deluded by this wealth chimera, private households have run down their savings and piled up astronomic debts to be repaid with future earned income.

Where, then, are the economic benefits? The one obvious visible benefit is in the push to GDP growth from higher consumer spending, which also increases current incomes. Yes, but much of that spending on cars, furniture and houses is borrowed from the future. That is, the borrowing pulls future spending into the present, but, of course, at the expense of such spending in the future.

If you think it over, you realize that in reality, such a borrowing/spending bubble adds nothing to economic growth. It only distorts the time pattern of spending in relation to its long-term trend, as in the case of the consumer determined by the underlying rate of income growth.

The second problem is that such a bubble distorts and deforms the direction of demand and production in the economy. Consider these grossly disproportionate increases in U.S. domestic spending since 2000: consumer durables +30.8%, residential building +29.5%, nonresidential investment +5.8%, imports +23.5%, exports +5.8%.

Strikingly, all economies with housing bubbles have features in common that were, in the past, generally associated with ailing economies. These are collapsed savings; skyrocketing debts; chronic, large trade deficits; and booming residential investment, but weak business investment.

This coincidence is not accidental. The common denominator of these countries is runaway consumer spending. That is the key point. The big spending excesses in these countries are in consumption, while business fixed investment is in the doldrums. Policymakers and economists in the countries with these symptoms are the first in history to proclaim that people and nations become richer with consumer borrowing-and-spending binges.

Consumption never creates wealth. It is categorical: Capital decreases when consumer spending exceeds production. What is happening in these countries is the exact opposite of wealth. It is capital consumption in the sense that consumption absorbs a growing share of GDP at the expense of investment and the trade balance.

On the macro level, this is impoverishment. As a matter of fact, it is statistically easily verifiable. It shows in the comparison of soaring U.S. foreign indebtedness to the lagging growth of the domestic capital stock, as measured by net capital investment.

U.S. net foreign debts are increasing at an annual rate of around $700 billion, or 6% of GDP. The available data for America's net fixed investment end in 2003; in that year, net private domestic investment amounted to $529.9 billion, or 4.8% of GDP. Of this total, residential building accounted for 3.4% of GDP and nonresidential investment for 1.4%.

Traditional economic thinking assumes that higher consumer spending stimulates businesses to increase their spending on capital investment and employment. This went badly wrong. It has not been realized that excessive consumption, taking up a rising share of GDP, has the exact opposite effect of depressing savings, investment and the trade balance through well-known crowding-out processes.

If you think all this over, you will realize that the American economic reality on the macro level is not record wealth creation, but national impoverishment, foreboding a declining living standard. Take the borrowed import surplus away, and U.S. living standards collapse.

Among the industrialized countries, Japan and Germany are the two great exceptions that have missed the global housing bubble. Japan is still struggling with the aftermath of its building bubble in the late 1980s, while Germany is struggling with the building bubble that developed in eastern Germany in the wake of unification.

Yet speaking of a global housing bubble, we hasten to emphasize again that there is one all-important difference in such bubbles. There are countries where rising house prices have been isolated events in the price system without significant effects on the economy, and there are countries where the housing bubbles have become the dominant influence both on the economies and financial systems.

This really is the dividing line between bubble economies and nonbubble economies.

The inflating house prices in Europe have even failed to prevent a slow decline of consumer spending. Consumers maintained their high saving rates.

Now one question: What does this aversion to consumer borrowing have to do with monetary and fiscal policies? What does it have to do with fundamental economic weakness? Absolutely nothing.

It has to do with a traditional cultural aversion in Europe to consumer borrowing for purposes other than building or buying a house.

And of course, it is stupid to believe that this aversion can be broken with still lower interest rates. In the first place, it robs the savers of income on their large mass of existing savings. It will shock them. The crucial difference to see is that Europeans are primarily savers, while people in Anglo-Saxon countries are primarily borrowers.

Consumption-driven bubble economies reveal themselves at first through sharply falling personal savings. Their second typical, yet spectacular, hallmark is large trade deficits.

In the end, the main question is, of course, what happens when a housing bubble expires. As to be expected, Mr. Greenspan and the bullish consensus deny the possibility of a hard landing. A little logic says that such a landing is inevitable.

An illuminating case in this respect is the very recent experience in the Netherlands. While traditionally a country highly conservative in its finances, it developed a housing bubble in 1998-99, after years of strong economic growth. House prices and credit growth soared at double-digit rates. As homeowners cashing in on their burgeoning home equity went on a spending spree, the household savings rate plunged from 12.9% of disposable income in 1998 to 6.8% just two years later.

As the Dutch central bank raised its short-term rate from 2.5% to 4.5% from 1999-2000, house price inflation came to an abrupt halt. Household borrowing and mortgage equity withdrawal slumped sharply.

Being deprived of their "wealth effects," the Dutch people returned to saving from their current income. Within just three years, the personal savings ratio was back to 12%, driving the Dutch economy into the worst recession among the industrialized countries. The growth rate of consumer spending sagged in a straight line from 4.7% in 1999 to minus 1.2% in 2003.

We have recalled this episode to emphasize one point of greatest importance, yet one that is widely ignored. The Dutch example confirms that for consumer spending to slump in the wake of a fading housing bubble, house prices do not need to fall at all. It is sufficient that they stop rising, thereby depriving households of new wealth effects and the associated borrowing facilities.

Therefore, major housing bubbles imperatively end in a hard landing. A second major adverse influence on economic growth implicitly arises from the sudden cessation of the building boom. Yet the worst looming problem is always the potential damage to the banking system through escalating bad loans.

On Dec. 5, 1996, when Alan Greenspan made his famous remark about possible "irrational exuberance" in the stock market, he asked a rhetorical question: "How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions, as they have in Japan over the past decade?"

For a central banker, that is really a most astonishing question. With some knowledge in macroeconomics, bubble economies - in the sense that asset bubbles impact the economy - are most easily identifiable. Consider that last year, the United States had recorded an overall credit expansion of $2,718.6 billion, versus virtually zero national saving. As you can see, the simple clue is in the relationship between soaring credit and collapsing savings.

Regards,

Kurt Richeb├Ącher
for The Daily Reckoning

ORCL

Oracle revenue the past two years has been amplified by about 5 percentage points from converting stronger overseas sales in euros into weaker U.S. dollars. Oracle has typically gotten about 35 percent of revenues from Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
The euro has recently traded near a 9-month low against the dollar at about $1.20.

**Multi nationals could now be on other side of currency game.

Duratek

COILED AND BUSTED SPRING

ADJ Monetary BAse going nowhere fast.

Baltic Dry PLUMMETING still looking for traction.

MARKING A TOP IN SILVER?

SILVER ETF

US ECONOMY on "FIRM FOOTING"

so says Sir Greenspan

Pheww,, and I was worried! Watch Trannies and INDU, so far NO NET progress in about 2 weeks, unlike small caps.

Silver well below "break out point" of near $7.64

D

US "shape up!"

says IMF Director what he current level of IMBALANCES cannot continue? it is WHAT floats the boat!

D

Monday, June 20, 2005

China as Pac Man

They'll reap what the FED sow...a total destruction of the US economy as coaxed to change from manufacturing power to consumption based economy....and it shows in ZERO savings rate and historic extremes in DEBT!

D

Follow up to last post

Markets May 2005

Considering their heads up call in 2000, this read carries some weight IMHO.

D

AN EXCELLENT LOOK BACK

Churchill Management and their great call in FEB of 2000.

"the market goes from OVERVALUATION back to UNDERVALUATION"

ALong with dividend yields, we have our clues as to where we are in the great cycle. And I do believe because of the reckless nature of the FED and their money creation, that they have FED the BEAR until he is gorged with enough ammo to cause great havoc.

We may be near lines up for the worldwide meltdown in a synchronized black ballet.

Duratek

Forbes on Intel

Oversupply issues?

Fuel Cells

Forbes article

QTWW

Do you buy here? A buyer at double bottom near $3.50 YES, but usually trips outside boundries of Bollinger BANDS bring trip towards lower. Stock is in my fuel cell tracking portfolio.

D

OIL AND EBAY

U.S. Stocks Fall as Oil Prices Climb to Record; Retailers Drop
June 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell as oil prices traded near a record of more than $59 a barrel, stoking concern energy costs may slow profit and economic growth.

``Oil prices going up and up is definitely going to slam the economy into reverse,'' said n, who oversees $5 billion as chief investment officer at Boston Advisors Inc. ``Lower stock prices are certainly expected from higher oil prices.''

Retailers paced the decline. Shares of EBay Inc. dropped after the Wall Street Journal reported Google Inc. plans to offer an electronic payment service that would compete with EBay's PayPal unit.

**note, there is NO direct correlation between direction of price of oil and stock market.

D

Sunday, June 19, 2005

LEI or LIE !!!

http://briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicReleases/leader.html

7 of last 9 LEI readings were negative, do they call it "LEADING" indicators because it reads the past?

Or do "they" try and EXCUSE it away? this from their last reading !

With a 5th consecutive decline and a cumulative 6-month decline exceeding -1% the index suggests an economic contraction.
Briefing.com sees the current economy strong and self-sustaining and the index providing a false alarm.

**I find that rather amusing, does RR go against his PTI? does he say it gives a FALSE reading? then what good is it? (LEI)

Duratek...truth searched for and spoken here

THE COMING PERFECT STORM

The real value in the wolrd is right in front of you, right in the home....in your relationships.

The markets, and life as we know it could be at a very important crossroads, a pinacle so to speak. House prices soaring, markets ignoring no wage growth, record oil and record debt, VIX making new lows, life is good.

There's mold on the bread my friends, and all you see is made of sand...and in a firey inferno will turn to glass and shatter for those not paying attention and prepared.

I'm talking about a 7 (SEVEN)YEAR PERIOD that the Market has been topping, especially in the DOW (NO NET PROGRESS, in FACT LOWER) BUT at SAME time we have seen (Investors Intelligence) 339 out of 348 weeks with PLURALITY of BULLS!

YES, even during BRUTAL Bear market this time span ONLY saw 9 WEEKS where Bearish opinion dominated!

Last great Bear MKT saw over 40 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS of bearish polls! of plurality !

The 2000 BUBBLE MKT was WAY OVER THE TOP in valuations, set EVERY BULL MKT RECORD, yet the AVG investor thinks the bear is gone!? a LOW is in? BS

Precther asks, is an index saw earnings fall to MINUS $100 from PLUS $300 and the PE fall to infinity. And OIL rise to new highs (Transport Index) HOW MUCH would you have expected that index to fall by? With little or NO dividends paid?

Answer, the Transports hit NEW HIGHS! My Contrarian voice is SCREAMING HISTORIC COMPLACENCY and BULLISH SENTIMENT!

BUT, the TRansports are now underperforming and have formed an ugly H and S formation.

Now it seems everyone is hopping on the commodity train. OIL will never go down, and NEW FUNDS keep popping up for GOLD OIL etc, but gold has gone NOWHERE in a decade! EURO land is hopping al lover GOLD in a frenzy to protect from weak EURO! but bullishness towards Euro at all time lows. and opposite to the dollar, it appears Gold has unhinged itself from lock step anti $$ action of late.

And no one asking WHY SILVER sits STUPIFYED in silence and has not GAPPED, spiked ahead with Gold? I SAY MAJOR Non- CONFIRM of Gold's recent action , until Silver breaks $7.64 ish. IS SILVER acting as a manufacturing element?

PHILA FED says LOOK OUT, LEI'S have said LOOK OUT, investors say "what me worry?"

Investors in LOVE with Small Caps continues...and ANY catchy TECH name TZOO, GOOG....wiling to pay insane premiums to own the NAME. GOOG 20 X BOOK 20 X Sales! unprecedented orgy....and foolish.

WHY (I have emailed Russell on NUMUROUS occasion to include the chart I send and mention the BDI to NO avail) is the Baltic Dry Index is a STEEP DECLINE and Tailspin? IF the CHINESE ECONOMY and world's economy is sound and expanpanding?

The UPTREND LINE formed from the 2002 to 2004 lows has been SLICED through like it wasn't there in the BDI index. THE BDI (explained in detail on my blog) is one of the MOST RELIABLE indicators of coming economic trend...and its been STRAIGHT DOWN!

SO, IMHO GOLD is ONLY reacting to currency trends, NOT ACTUAL RAMPANT INFLATION, even if CPI and PPI are MANIPULATED and DISTORTED.

Money creation by the FED has been unprecedented in the last 39 months, creating 6 to 1 $$$ in that time span to what came before it!

CRISIS MODE is what the FED seems to be in, and ALL we have to show for it is IPODS and a hOUSING BOOM/BUBBLE?

What of the greater economy? Job Creation? Wage growth? Savings? How can we INVEST if we have NO savings? You can't unless you BORROW, as we do almost ALL of the worlds savings! WE LOSE BIG!

Credit mkt debt is WAY BEYOND ANY HISTORIC PREVIOUS HIGH. I feel we have entered the final phase of credit expansion as described and shown in KOndratief cycles, and will be enterring a period of credit expansion, we JUST cannot keep the FIAT and DEBT expansion going indefinately, especially if we have already surpassed historic extremes....by a freakin' mile!

The sucking sounds of the black hole of contraction and debt....and DEFLATION (a forgotten phrase)are now exerting their mortal forces.

NDX wary of 2100, a break could extend the hype for a period, so far reluctant....with SPX/VIX ratio at a triple TOP of orgasmic HIGHER than previous BUBBLE TOP levels, I just don't see much upside surprise of FUEL left here.

ALL IMHO BWDIK! sorry my first post here and maybe last in months is not optimistic, but I feel the bear has not been satiated, and knowing how long this CYCLICAL BULL has lasted, and how it hasn;t been able to make headway in sometime, new levels of PTI have not been able to bring NEW HIGHS,.....it is as if time stands still....FED keeps pumping and pumping, and the money...may be sitting there as if the perverbial "you can bring a horse to water, but can;t make him drink"

Prime Reatil closeout sites go unfilled, and shoppers absent.....the orgy nears an end.

We have trouble abroad, it now goes ignored by the new Millionaires.....and the Bush crowd has effectively STOLEN our Constitutional Rights visa ve the Patriot Act....again, the masses are stupifyed! and we are NO safer as we GIVE AWAY our rights to privacy, as the Unconstitutionally created FED destroys our currency and controls our financial destiny, WHAT FREE MARKETS?

With nothing more than Financial Boobery and having borrowed OODLES from future demand for HOusing and Auto's, the old DRIVERS of our economy, dying manufacturing, and worldwide competition for Service Sector jobs.......a NEW WORLD ORDER is occuring, not the one BUSH wanted...or is it?

911 gave Bush just what he needed to install his secret doctrine.....so did he have advance knowledge of its coming?

Something is wrotten in Denmark, yet it's aroma goes nearly undetected.

The market as I see it poised like a VENUS FLYTRAP, and there is no escape for the sleeping LEmmings.....smart money never seems to become the bagholders....unfair as it seems.

Saturday, June 18, 2005

AT A CROSSROADS IN SO MANY WAYS

First up the TRIN. EWT points out Fri STU that it has closed BELWO 1.0 for 8 STRAIGHT DAYS!, last accomplished in LATE 1999 not far from Bubble high in Dow. Dick Arms suggests looking at 4, 21, and 55 day moving averages to look for trend reversals.

The DailY Sentiment Index has pushed to an extreme reading. The VIX has pushed to an extreme reading, yet volume is punkish and in last 4 weeks the Dow has narely budges with ALL this bullishness.

The NAZ is faced again with resistance at 2100, though it certainly can push above, coming to 2098 friday with Big Board in rally mode, decided not to join in, ending basically unchanged for the day. Coincidence?

Transports show a supporting 52 wk average, but volume is declining and RSI and MACD IMHO do not support rise, which you can see are WELL below it's all time highs....

SPX/VIX ratio at prior extremes, as noted before, WELL ABOVE previous 1999-2000 records! and now approaching SAME for THIRD TIME!

A continued rise of stocks or fall in VIX would result in another extreme extreme. You can also see the rise from 2002-2003 lows as WELL developed, there is MUCH complacency to FEED the return of the BEAR.

GOLD is diverging from the path of SILVER, as GOLD SPIKES SILVER trades sideways. SILVER resistance is seen at $7.64 ish. Gold is nearing near term overbought. However weekly buy MACD signal. Near term daily pattern, see RSI near 70 (overbought) See weekly SILVER and lower peaks for MACD and RSI.

With OPEX Friday behind, Monday could give clue to bear term action, Monday normally an operators dream.

Crude OIL trend is firmly UP. Market has ignored? Market ignored Recession suggesting NEGATIVE PHILA FED reading?

Pattern of LEI? more next week, has been decidedly down.

The market can and will do anything. Russell's PTI is at NEW HIGH and he remarks it is at one of highest bullish readings, yet I observe, NO NEW HIGHS in the indexes, especially the DOW.

Can we have a housing bubble if so many say we have a housing bubble? Home builder stocks continue their upside march.

Euro weakness could be causing some of the metal buying we have seen, as gold had been moving higher even with rising US Dollar.

High Beta NAZ could be initial clue, watch for break of 2100 or break around 2079 ish for early clue.

I think trend reversal could be at hand, but I am not on bullish herd move, and I stand aside.

Bulls ignore IRAQ, the casualties, the cost, ignore oil, ignore overvaluations, ignore cyclical bull is long in the tooth. Always interesting and confoudning.

Duratek

Friday, June 17, 2005

GOLD TECHNICALS

Great site for TA and OPEN INTEREST

D

STOCKS AND OIL

Is there any direct corelation between the price of oil and the stock market? OIL HITS NEW HIGH, stocks rise anyway.

WE had quadruple opex Friday, and the high beta NAZ sniffed 2100 and decided for today anyway, we'll pass.

Perhaps they are saving the real fireworks for the over hyped and well orchestrated INTC mid qtr update.

D

GAMBLER LEMMINGS GET STUNG

IIJI POS

What's that tell you abour "Japan Initiative" when it can't or won;t get a listing in TOKYO!?? LOL
Plunging $3 as we speak. When you invest ( I use that loosely) /buy to sell higher, as only reason, you WILL get spanked.

D

JOBS DATA SUGGESTS RECESSION

Mark Hulbert

TRIN Falling off the charts

You can smell the complacency

This from an AM email I sent out.

Current Account Trade Deficit at New HighFri 8:45AM ET - APThe deficit in the broadest measure of international trade rose to an all-time high of $195.1 billion from January through March of this year as the country sank deeper into debt to Japan, China and other nations.


Phil FED NEG.

If 2 PLUS doesn’t equal 4, then don’t kid yourself. BEAR is luring in last of the lemmings, as futures get bid up on thin trading on NO good news, watch for reversal, or maybe not……reality has been suspended, I feel when the fog is lifted, it will be too late for most as the SLEEPER HOLD has been applied

YUP, happy Fathers Day! LOL

MORE ON ADBE

Seems like it was the GUIDANCE that perturbed the lemmings.

For TECH in general, also known as the "high beta stocks", are looking up at 2100 as the Maginot Line. ( a history lesson)Early morning action sees its advance so far repelled there, so it does seem significant.



Have a great Father's Day,

Duratek

Thursday, June 16, 2005

ADBE FALLS A.H.

Market Pulse: Adobe ticks higher ahead of expected higher results (am story tag line)


After the Bell-Adobe shares fall after results
at Reuters (Thu 4:21pm) They look pretty good, something bothering the lemmings.. Off $1.82

D (you find value in what I post? Duratek@yahoo.com )

TRIPLE TOP?

10 YR SPX/VIX RATIO Not often mentioned, but the relation of fear and complacency to the market price can be helpful to guage the level of bullishness present.

I contend, thrice passing the 2000 BUBBLE TOP of this ratio, is there any doubt in your mind where we are now?

Are we setting out to some new and great horizon?

Or is this correctional cyclical bull move treading water, and in gross danger of passing out?

When looking at 2000 BUBBLE TOP reading, is it fair to wonder with PRICES BELOW but COMPLACENCY abounding AND FEAR MISSING, what that means for the road ahead?

Duratek, just one bozo's opinion

HOW DRY I AM BDI TALK!

bALTIC dRY iNDEX has shown NO improvement. Already breaking below the uptrend line formed from 2002 lows, nobody bringing up the weakness in world shipments.

Read down to figure B for explantion of BDI....."the BDI is a GOOD leading indicator of economic growth and production..." "the BDI is totally devoid of speculative content.."

Russell doesn't mention it, EWT or any top newsletter I know of, but I DO!

D

GOLD COMMENTARY

Reuters But Silver not amused with hike in price of gold.

D

PHI FED SPEAK from Reuters

"It seems the New York and the Philly Fed index did a bit of a role reversal: New York was very weak last month and bounced back this month and there was the opposite pattern with Philly," said Jay Feldman, an economist at Credit Suisse First Boston in New York.
Given that the Philly Fed survey is seen as probably the most reliable of the regional U.S. manufacturing surveys, the question is whether the weakness in Thursday's report will be reflected in June national factory data due early next month.
Some analysts have been predicting that the Institute for Supply Management's survey on U.S. manufacturing will also show contraction in June as inventories in the economy are worked off. In May, the ISM survey stood at 51.4.
"Even with a few conflicting signs within the breakdown and the conflict with the Empire State survey, the data is certainly bullish for bonds, and raises the chances of an eventual dip in the ISM manufacturing index below 50," said Alan Ruskin, research director at 4CAST Ltd. in New York.

**Also watching DWA, pondering if oversold enough to catch a safe cat bounce, below IPO price.

D

CLOWNS NEVER RIGHT!

Briefing.com Phil FEd declines to NEG number, contraction has begun?

Friend has scored from weeks ago NTES TZOO EBAY and OSTK, Paid $52 for NTES, I sugested tight stops or now taking profits, 1/2 he did.

D

"IT" HAS BEGUN

GS, Financials should now start to UNDERPERFORM and have underpinned the rise in SPX earnings, or should I say HAD?

D

METALS

http://goldseek.com GOLD surging $5 while SILVER yawns, could be non confirm of the move. GOLD reacting to retrace coming of $$$? and SILVER to deflation?
D

Wednesday, June 15, 2005

TRIPLE TOP OR FULL SPEED AHEAD? VALUE LINE

10 YR CHART OF VLE shows potential for triple top. NOTE, there has been NO bear market for this index.

But, also note, how each TOP/new high has come with WEAKER MACD and RSI, this is major bearish divergence, IMHO

Also Baltic Dry Index continues to PLUNGE, had recently sliced through uptrend support line like it wasn't even there.

All of this should have significant implications for economy and markets going forward.

Duratek

SHORT AND SWEET AM DATA

BRIEFING.COM CPI ETC

The Gov. control the data, the Gov. manipulates and distorts the data. We have deflationary trends in things we SHOULD care less about, we have steep price increases in things we can't live without, food , energy, insurance, tuition, and health care.

Market is going NOWHERE, I see "smart" money has exited. I see the FED continue to tighten.

You buy a market with falling interest rates, a FRIENDLY FED, you SELL a market of RISING interest rates, and unfriendly FED! IMHO

We have a market that historically is overvalued, with same for dividend yields at historic lows. SO no bear market bottom has been put in place.

Since 1998 we have had only 9 weeks of majority bearish opinion, we have had historic string of majority bullish opinion/sentiment. VIX near historic lows.

Last Bear Market had something like 40 plus weeks of majority BEARISH SENTIMENT.

Pick your battles, bob and weave, hit and run, be careful. This complacent haze could end in an instant. IMHO a TOP of significance could already be in place.

AS reported, low CPI etc should JUICE markets, let's see. But you know better than to trust Hedonic, seasonally adjusted, self motivated gov data and how the financial media hops on every minute figure or the latest catch phrase to describe the action.

Duratek

Tuesday, June 14, 2005

GOLD, A MOVING EXPERIENCE?

But Silver is not confirming , and gold has gone nowhere in last year or so, still not able to peel away a new high.

(picking up on email transcript with trader firends looking for gold trend)
"Most definitely, though as we discussed potential weeks ago, were amiss when deciding if the move was worth additional leverage.

I see silver SO close to area of resistance that I wonder why the hesitation. If one or other does not confirm, move invalid and false (gold and silver), not to say it won’t it just hasn’t.

Silver more of commodity, and today’s NEG stats on sales and PPI, WHO is still shouting inflation? Yet no one of importance or mainstream suggest otherwise. (deflation) stagflation

Duratek...going NOWHERE fast

SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY?

This far into rcovery, still hesitant to hire?

Monday, June 13, 2005

VIX

nearing 3 year low for volatility Go figure! Calm seas ahead or get ready for the storm?

D

HOUSING BOOM WILL NEVER END

NO BUBBLE? Just the kind of articles you'll see before it POPS! Contrary to the cries of "housing bubble housing bubble" from every corner.

D

Friday, June 10, 2005

STAGE IS SET

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$ndx,uu[w,a]daclyiay[pc20!c5!f][vc60][iut!La12,26,9!Lh14,3]&pref=G

Broken the 20 EMA and it is declining, correction or whatever is in full swing IMHO

And CPC is currently .61 !!! and only .80 last 5 days with LOW VIX, what me freakin worry? TRAN not working on stock charts, not sure its action

http://www.capitalone.com/investments/cd/index.php?linkid=WWW_Z_Z_Z_SP20_L2_13_G_SP2 ODD hasn’t changed during the FALL in yields.

Baltic DRY PLUNGING

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf Adjusted monetary base going NOWHERE!


Stage is set:

Duratek

SILVER LINING?

SILVER not going along with golds move, IMHO import/export prices released today http://www.briefing.com/Silver/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm don’t support ANY notion of inflation except in ONE ISOLATED AREA housing. When oversold bounce and pessimism is removed DOWN hard she goes.
BULGING deficits WOULD put even more pressure on BONDS IF the FED/Central banks wasn’t buying HALF of the allocations. (as per recent treasury auctions)

Duratek your truth seeking man! can I have a hooyaa? stay with me my lurking friends, and can always email me at Duratek@yahoo.com

TECH HYPE REDUX

Opening market mixed, with INTC and TECH slightly negative WTF?

Yes, how could THAT be with EVERY BULLY PAPER and PULPIT SCREAMING from papertops..."INEL BOOSTS REVENUES...." here ye' hear ye'

D

DECLINING PRICES??!!!

Can you say deflation? Now you know why the FED is talking out of both sides.... we're in DEEP trouble.

D

Thursday, June 09, 2005

NOW IT'S INTC TO SAVE THE DAY?

WAS IT, is it ever that big a deal? THEY play this game every qtr! Quess what, IONTC down in AH and futures were not lit up with its mid qtr broohaa

D

More TECH hype and fluff

For the quarter ended May 29, National Semiconductor posted net of $132.1 million, or 36 cents a share, against $94.2 million, or 24 cents, in the year-earlier period.
The results included several gains and charges and were helped by a tax benefit of $55.9 million. A year earlier, the company took a $30 million pre-tax litigation charge.
Sales slipped 18% to $467 million from $571.2 million. Bookings rose 12% from the third period ended Feb. 27.
In the quarter, the company said its gross-profit margin widened about 4 percentage points to 54.7% from the year-ago period.
National Semiconductor has been cutting its workforce and jettisoning parts of its business the past two years to move into higher-margin product areas. Part of the company's overall plan is to reach profit margins above 60% of sales. So far, analysts say, the company is headed in the right direction.
Looking ahead, the company said revenue will be flat to down 2% from the fourth quarter. Its gross margin is expected to stay at current levels.

**WOOOO!

D

NDX FLAT TIRE?

20 EMA beginning to turn down.

I'll HUFF and I'LL PUFF, and I'll HYPE...as they parade TXN and others and Green man spews on.

D

SPEACH SPEACH!!!

LOL, run and buy the market Greenspan says all is well!

D

Wednesday, June 08, 2005

HYPE FOR TI, FUTURED GREEN!

Meanwhile, JMP Securities downgraded TI shares to market perform from market outperform due to valuation, as the stock has approached Analyst Krishna Shankar's $28 price target.

yawnnnnnnnnn

D

CONSUMERS SLOWING DOWN!

Consumer credit

Tuesday, June 07, 2005

ECHO BUBBLE?

Headline IBD

WAMU DEAL MARKS RESURGEBCE IN MERGER ACTIVITY

"Heaviest volume since 2000" (now is THAT a good thing?) we all know what followed

D

Bear MKT BOTTOM?

http://www.lowrisk.com/99crash.htm

LEMMINGS NEXT TASR?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IIJI&t=5d BEYOND OVERBOUGHT IMHO

D

The "NEWS" IS NOT GOOD

"I think people are looking to Greenspan's comments and reading a lot into them, but in the end there's still a fair amount of confusion on the economy that needs to be sorted out," said Brian Pears, head equity trader at Victory Capital Management in Cleveland. "But unlike the past, when people got confused and sold, they're sitting there and thinking that as long as rates are low, I'm going to buy. People are thinking positively about the market."

**DOW 10,586 key level for short term bearish the DOW as per ewt Mon update.

Stocks are overbought, irregardless of todays rally, on the Greenman's words..I say BD

D

HEAVY WEIGHT

PENSION GAP GROWS LEt's rally on what Greenspan SAYS, not WHAT is reality

D

Sunday, June 05, 2005

APPLE IPOD INVENTORY GLUT?

APPLE STORY

WHat takes center stage, that or possible switch to INTC chips from IBM? Watch MON

D

Friday, June 03, 2005

JOBBED DATA

NET BIRTH ONLY 78,000 jobs created, but as you see....they added over 200,000 out of thin air. so it is worse than it looks.

D....and I nailed the bond turn?

BOND REVERSAL ?

http://tinyurl.com/crm4n

IMHO, look at weekly, trendlines drawn from highs shows this move has NOT yet broken that descending trendline, lower highs, meaning higher lows in rates.

RSI nearing oversold and up to top of weekly BB, leads me to see a bond sale is near.

ADD sentiment off the charts bullish bonds, that was the setup. I had this post ready togo hours ago but my buddy just flew in from Tampa, and was giving the tour of my store, take care

PLAIN AS THE NOSE ON MY FACE

BRIEFING .COM

CNN.COM said this morning that BAD news will be good news, to KEEP RATES LOW!

LOW long term rates FUELS INFLATION of property values, and feeds housing bubble.

WE have flattening yield curve, it is telling us a Recession is likely.

WEAK job growth, to a rational human is NOT GOOD FRICKIN' news however you CUT it.

10 yr slumping to 3.8%!!!! FED funds 3% next meeting it could be 3.25%

Conundrum my ass.

D

Thursday, June 02, 2005

PINK SLIPS RISE

Challenger

LABOR COSTS RISING GOLD FLYING

U.S. First-Qtr Productivity Rises at 2.9% Rate; Costs Rise 3.3%

June 2 (Bloomberg) -- The productivity of U.S. workers grew in the first quarter at the fastest pace in nine months and labor costs rose more than forecast, suggesting the Federal Reserve still has work to do to keep inflation from accelerating.

Productivity, a measure of how much an employee produces for every hour of work, rose at a 2.9 percent annual rate compared with a 2.3 percent increase the previous three months, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Labor costs rose at a 3.3 percent annual rate after a 7.7 percent fourth-quarter gain.

The first-quarter increase in wages and other labor costs was more than the median 2.1 percent forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. The year-over-year increase of 4.3 percent was the most since the third quarter of 2000. Rising labor costs are likely to keep Fed policy makers raising the benchmark interest rate to limit inflation, economists said.

The statistics are ``certain to reinforce Federal Reserve concerns regarding a potential build-up of underlying inflation pressures,'' said David Greenlaw, chief U.S. fixed income economist at Morgan Stanley in New York, before the report.

D

UNDERBELLY

The underside of the broken lower uptrend line has been reached, from the NOV lows

If in next 2 days a decline has not resumed, chopping higher for maybe even 2 more weeks possible.

Coming under 10,506 and SPX 1197 would be initial signal a top of some kind may be in. (EWT)

D

"OIL SLICK"

CLIFF DROKE COMMENTARY This guy has earned my respect, been right on more than ONCE.

The IDIOCY of the market action tells me maybe we are seing a top in greed. Pullback from GOOG after topping $290 !!

BONDS at 3.89% !!! NEAR FLAT yield curve, bonds saying WHOOPIE look at economy.

Internuts being chased. OIL above $54 again! CONSTATNT BROKER UPGRADES AFTER stocks have already run some 40% in price. (Like INTC FROM $20 to near $28)

VIX back to 12 area. Market OVERBOUGHT. Market was selling off than miracle last half hour occurs again. check action of NTES yesterday! CHinese internuts red hot.

DIscord in Europe over Union. LOWER CONTINUE to fuel HOUSING BUBBLE (not in ALL areas). AAPLAUSE that FED now may have to HALT rate increases? SHOOT! their rate increase only led to lower long term rates anyway!!!

Horse out of barn, cat out of bag, Emperor has no clothes.

D

Wednesday, June 01, 2005

FED FAILURE

SOARING HOME VALAUES as RATES clunk to new lows for move!

A train that WILL jump the tracks

D

BDI ALERT

http://www.naftemporiki.gr/markets/quotegraph.asp?id=.BADI&ctime=5Y&cperiodicity=W

As I draw it, the BDI has just broken the uptrend line drawn from 2002 and 2004 lows.

BAD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS?

The markets soared when Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher said the central bank is "getting closer" to the end of its interest rate-tightening campaign. Speaking on CNBC, Fisher said he expects another quarter-point increase at the next meeting, after which, "we'll see."
The Fed has raised rates eight straight times, most recently adding a quarter-point to push fed funds to 3% on May 3.
"I'm surprised he said the Fed is close to the end of the cycle," said Tim Heekin, head of stock trading with Thomas Weisel Partners. "We've enjoyed these historically low rates for a while. It just seems to me that we have easily another 30% to 50% to go without stifling economic growth."
Fisher's comments had an immediate impact on the fed funds futures market, where odds for a quarter-point hike at the FOMC's Aug. 9 meeting fell to 70% from 89% earlier today. A quarter-point increase at the June 30 meeting remains fully priced in, while market odds for a third hike at the Sept. 20 meeting went from 24% to 0%.
Stocks also were helped Wednesday by the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, which came in at 51.4 for May, slightly below expectations of 52. The prices-paid component lost 13 points to 58. Stock and bond investors see the numbers as supporting interest rate doves at the Fed, although the numbers also could be read as bearish for future profits.

**IMHO the last sentence SAYS IT ALL, buying in here will lead to pain IMHO

D