Tuesday, July 31, 2007



I kept this chart simple, my opinion means nothing, the vote of millions of shares do. When the market sniffs out real TROUBLE or GOOD TOMES AHEAD it does so with it’s 20 and 50 week moving averages. The crossover highlighted in circle in 2000 CONFIRMED BEAR MKT in progress. IN 2002 that Blue Circle with upward crossover signalled NEW BULL MKT. That said, you can see weakness but NO crossover yet, if there is one Jo, then Bear is back IMHO> if not all is clear sort of.

Not one single other opinion was needed or necessary, the MA’S speak to me and tell the story and the action afterward proves it.

KEY IMHO is what to do, WHO knew small caps, real estate and gold would do well during 2000-2003 period? Or would lag recently as large caps outperformed.

Maybe one doesn’t run and hide like I did, but it is MOST DIFFICULT to see as it is happening the opportunities of long positions during a bear mkt, some DO and DID work, not the SPX 500, DOW or NAZ….but things did work, it is the quick adjusting of portfolios that makes the difference…..switching to defensive sectors may not help.

D....your bearish leaning, contrarian voice over your shoulder market observor

Wednesday, July 25, 2007


I cannot think I am alone here in retailville, and if sales DO NOT PICK UP HEADS WILL ROLL>

LOOK for unemployment reports when they rise out of current range it wont stop.

GOOD quality loans even now suspect per Countrywide

Money will be harder to come by (LIQUIDITY)

ONLY ASSET PRICES RISING…..will boost GDP (stock mkt)

Our electric and fuel bills for buildings and trucks have dramatically risen.

I think consumers are up against it here and when heads roll it gets worse.

Now we have HISTORIC DEBT, I am very worried for those on the edge. (lack of historic high in gold says to me they cant or haven’t INFLATED IT AWAY)

The alternative is DEFLATION, with little ammo left.

I think EASY money has been made, choppy times at best ahead.


Tuesday, July 17, 2007



1st half of 2007 it reached $2.7 T 62% AHEAD of 2006 !!!!

When M & A peaked in 2000 it warned of THE bubble top, we're building a bigger one now.