Wednesday, April 30, 2008


This is the business I am in, what a COOL chair around $899, very well made in Germany...all the dealers are asking each other "where has the business gone?"

Tuesday, April 29, 2008


Advertiser Staff Writer

Hawai'i's economy, reeling from the loss of thousands of jobs with the demise of Aloha Airlines' passenger service, the closure of Molokai Ranch and NCL America's decision to pull out two of its ships, now faces the loss of a vital transportation link with the shutdown of Aloha's cargo operations.

Aloha abruptly closed its profitable air freight business yesterday after its lender, GMAC Commercial Finance LLC, cut off financing.

The shutdown means the loss of 300 jobs and the end of a business that handled more than 100 million pounds of cargo each year — about 85 percent of all goods flown between O'ahu and the Neighbor Islands.

The impact will be felt by retailers and wholesalers of time-sensitive consumer items such as baked goods, produce, meat, medical supplies, newspapers, auto parts and construction materials. The move also will affect movement of interisland mail and the flow of cash between local banks and their Neighbor Island branches.

"This is a critical link in the state economy," said Leroy Laney, professor of economics and finance at Hawai'i Pacific University.

"The shutdown will definitely impact the local economy, and with medical supplies, it could lead to life or death situations."

Gov. Linda Lingle said in a news release that she has had discussions with other cargo operators to find shipping alternatives since Aloha filed for bankruptcy.

Maui Mayor Charmaine Tavares said the impact will be especially hard on local entrepreneurs and farmers who rely on Aloha's daily service.

"I am concerned for both the employees of Aloha Airlines cargo as well as for the many small businesses that will be impacted," Tavares said.

Founded in 1946, Aloha was the state's second-largest airline until it shut down its passenger service on March 31 and terminated 1,900 employees. The closing came 11 days after Aloha filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization. Aloha said it lost $120 million in two years because of soaring fuel prices and a costly interisland fare war.

Yesterday, Aloha flew its final two afternoon cargo flights. The company canceled six nighttime cargo flights.

Aloha said last night that it was in the process of informing cargo employees about the layoffs.

sale may be affected

The shutdown could also jeopardize the sale of Aloha's 1,100-employee contract services division to Los Angeles-based Pacific Air Cargo.

Pacific Air last week agreed to pay $2.05 million for the unit, which handles ticketing, baggage services, ramp duties and other ground services for carriers that serve Hawai'i.

The deal, which was approved last week by a federal bankruptcy judge, will now have to be reviewed again by a court-appointed bankruptcy trustee.

As of last night, the company's contract services division remained opened.

The layoffs are more bad news for an economy shaken by the shutdown of Molokai Ranch, which resulted in the loss of 120 jobs, and the grounding of Aloha's passenger service, which represented the state's largest-ever mass layoffs.

State lawmakers are now bracing for the impact of the pullout of Norwegian Cruise Lines' two ships, which could rival the 2,200 total jobs lost at Aloha.

"This is one more indicator that our economy is suffering," said state House Speaker Calvin Say.

"It is also a wake-up call for all of us on the importance of our transportation infrastructure."

closure a surprise

The Aloha cargo closure took employees, customers and creditors by surprise, especially because Aloha had at least two bids for its profitable cargo unit.

On March 27, the Seattle-based owner of Young Brothers/Hawaiian Tug & Barge, Saltchuk Resources Inc., signed a letter of intent to purchase the cargo division for $13 million.

And last week, locally based Jupiter Holdings Group bid $13.65 million for the division.

James Wagner, Jupiter's attorney, said the company was prepared to go through with its purchase as recently as yesterday afternoon. But GMAC unexpectedly upped the price to $15 million and required a higher deposit, he said.

Saltchuk, meanwhile, pulled its bid last week after Aloha and GMAC changed the terms of the bidding.

"This all has to do with other parties changing the deal without any warning," Wagner said. "I've been in practice over 30 years and I've never seen a case end like this."

GMAC took the lead in the sale talks because it is owed $44 million by Aloha and has provided money to keep the cargo operations flying after it filed for bankruptcy protection on March 20.

The lender previously threatened to pull the financing for the cargo operations after a dispute with Aloha's pilots.

Aloha pilots laid off with the closure of the passenger service wanted the option to work for the cargo division. Last week, the pilots' union threatened to strike over the issue.

Attorneys for the pilots union and Aloha's unsecured creditors said in bankruptcy court that Aloha will get less than $13 million by shutting down the cargo operations and selling its equipment.

"For GMAC to walk away from legitimate offers makes absolutely no sense at all," added pilot John Riddel. "It's a travesty. This should have never happened. Hundreds of dedicated employees are being victimized today."

Paul Brewbaker, chief economist at the Bank of Hawaii, said it may be some time before competing carriers and cargo operators fill the void left by Aloha.

"This is huge," said Brewbaker. "I don't doubt that somebody will come in and fill the void but in the short-term, anyone who wants to go to market is hung up."

Aloha used six Boeing 737-200 planes solely for interisland cargo. Hawaiian and other carriers take cargo in their passenger planes and don't have aircraft dedicated to cargo.

Brewbaker said it will be more difficult to attract a new competitor to the interisland cargo market than several years ago given turmoil in the nation's credit markets and high fuel prices.


March 31, 2008Fed looks at asset-price bubbles in a new light

Minneapolis Fed president says long-held hands-off approach can be revisited with 'policies designed to address excesses'BloombergFederal Reserve officials may be rethinking their aversion to acting against asset-price bubbles, an article of faith during former Chairman Alan Greenspan's 18 years at the helm.
After this month's near-collapse of Bear Stearns Cos., Minneapolis Fed Bank President Gary Stern—the longest-serving policy maker—said in a speech last week that it's possible “to build support” for practices “designed to prevent excesses.” New York Fed President Timothy Geithner, whose district bank took on almost $30 billion of Bear Stearns assets to rescue the firm, argued two years ago for a larger role for asset prices in decision-making, and there's no indication his views have changed.
For Fed policy makers, “the consequences of their permissiveness have become so disastrous that they simply can't keep singing the same old tune in public,” said Tom Schlesinger, executive director at the Financial Markets Center in Howardsville, Va.
While the soul-searching is unlikely to result in immediate changes to monetary policy, Stern's comments show how the credit freeze has forced officials to scrutinize long-held philosophies about the Fed's role in markets, and even ask how their current policies can undercut those views.
“As a risk manager, the Fed needs to take account of both directions, not just dealing with the aftermath,” said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. “We have had two asset-prices bubbles in the last 10 years that have had big implications for the Fed's desire for a more stable macroeconomy.”
Stern's reflection
Stern, 63, has been president of the Minneapolis Fed since 1985 and is currently a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. In his speech to the European Economics and Financial Centre in London on Thursday, he said that “while I have not yet changed my opinion that asset-price levels should not be an objective of monetary policy, I am reviewing this conclusion in the wake of the fallout from the decline in house prices and from the earlier collapse of prices of technology stocks.”
He added that “it is well within the realm of possibility for policy makers to build support for, and at least obtain tolerance of, policies designed to address excesses.”
Fed officials have spent years wrestling with how to prevent bubbles without damaging the economy through high interest rates, and few have come up with an answer. That's partly because the debate focused on use of the main policy rate instead of regulatory tools.
Greenspan philosophy
For two decades, the ruling philosophy has been Greenspan's. “It is far from obvious that bubbles, even if identified early, can be pre-empted at a lower cost than a substantial economic contraction and possible financial destabilization,” Greenspan told the American Economic Association in 2004.
“I have always said if we could defuse a nascent asset bubble, I would be all for it,” Greenspan, 82, said in an e- mailed response to a question. “The reason I am against is that in my experience it cannot be done. I know of no occasion when such actions have been successful.”
But his successor, Ben S. Bernanke, and his team now find themselves reconsidering their approach to everything from regulation to the fate of the world's largest securities dealers. The collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market has led to $208 billion in writedowns and credit losses since the start of 2007, pushing Bear to the brink of bankruptcy before its purchase by JPMorgan.
In his public remarks, Bernanke, 54, has opposed using interest rates to rein in asset prices, favoring keeping the benchmark rate focused on managing growth and inflation.
Role for regulation
At the same time, he does see a role for regulations to reduce the likelihood of bubbles and protect institutions when they pop. He is also open to using other tools, as his response to the seven-month credit crisis has shown. And if the Fed gets more supervisory responsibility for securities firms, officials are likely to take more interest in policies that can discipline markets and balance incentives, economists said.
“If it is the case that asset prices matter for the intermediation of credit, then they have to worry about it,” said Vincent Reinhart, former director of the Fed's Monetary Affairs Division, and now a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.
The Fed has cut the benchmark rate 2 percentage points this year, the fastest pace in two decades. Bernanke has also changed the composition of the Fed balance sheet, absorbing more mortgage bonds, and swapping Treasuries for even private-label and commercial mortgage-backed securities, in effect influencing prices of securities tied to housing.
Bailout 'hazards'
Stern has spoken publicly only seven times in the last year. The Minneapolis president co-authored a 2004 book called “Too Big to Fail: the Hazards of Bank Bailouts,” which concluded that while governments shouldn't avoid public support for creditors of failing banks, they should minimize that backing because of the distortions it produces.
“If someone like that, steeped in the Fed's traditions, opens the door to a new or different approach to policy, we have to take it seriously,” said Robert McTeer, a former president of the Dallas Fed.


U.S. Home Foreclosure Rate Soars 112 Percent- AP
The number of U.S. homes heading toward foreclosure more than doubled in the first quarter from a year earlier, as weakening property values and tighter lending left many homeowners powerless to prevent homes from being auctioned to the highest bidder, a research firm said Monday.
Home Prices Plunge at Record Rate of 12.7 Percent- AP
Consumer Confidence Drops to Lowest Point in Five Years-


Monday, April 28, 2008



You can see these weekly MA'S merging, declining, especially the important "murphy" 80 week.....these is bocoup resistance near these levels, let's see what happens. Financial news from afar


Saturday, April 26, 2008


OIl's Top
Hard to call a top when in a bull, and oil and nat gas certainly are, is $120 THE blow off top? oil holding well with recent surge in $$ too....unwinding of hedge here maybe not so yet.
Declining economies use LESS OIL, in past RECESSIONS (we are?? haaa)Oil use and price has if the current oil highs are supported by demand then what holds it up? bubble...
When trading you "go with flow" right? I agree a top price is near...refiners not sharing in glee....pick a botton there?
I AM in retail, there IS a marked slowdown, only the guy in foreclosures is jiggy.....TIMES "The New Austerity",28804,1720049_1720050_1721656,00.html
Let's recap where we are?
We have lost MASSIVE VELOCITY of MONEY and investment....and consumption..=liquidity and credit expansion
HELOC'SCDO'SM&A'SIPO'SVENTURE CAPITALLending standards tightened, banks stingyGrowth of adj monetary base stagnantsavings at zeroDeclining home valuesDeclining asset valuesRising inflationStagnant wage growthJob lossesBanks being (investors) sold out to Sovereign FundsConsumer confidence lowers in decades
SO during the long bull mkt we had? CREDIT EXPANSION, and now? WE HAVE CREDIT CONTRACTION
You say.."but stock market not doing so bad considering" many might agree, but we DO get some VERY NICE rallies during BEAR MKTS even some lasting months....
WE DO seem to rally into FED MEETINGS
1400 area is designated TOUGH RESISTANCE, and my friends a SOLID close ON STRONG DEMAND above 1400 are would be convincing...that it got legs.
Recent rally has been decieving, IMHO more lows than highs on falling volume and breadth......we need to see ANY UPCOMING RALLIES COME WITH STRONG DEMAND (upside volume) because w/o it, it cannot last, withdraw of selling alone aint gonna cut it.


25 April 2008

Stiglitz: US Recession May Echo the 1930s

Nobel Winner Stiglitz: U.S. Facing Long RecessionBy CNBC.com25 Apr 2008 02:17 PM ETThe U.S. economy is already in recession -- and may echo the 1930s, Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz said Friday."The big question is: how will the government respond?" said Stiglitz, in an interview with CNBC. Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor and 2001 winner of the Nobel prize, detailed his bleak outlook for the American economy.

"This is going to be one of the worst economic downturns since the Great Depression," said Stiglitz.He explained that main cause of the current situation is historically unique—and thus is befuddling those charged with creating solutions.Other downturns were primarily caused by excesses in inventories or inflation; but this slowdown is due to the condition of "badly impaired" banks and financial entities, which are unwilling and/or unable to lend capital -- stymieing the very borrowers who usually drive the country back to vitality, Stiglitz said. And the Federal Reserve may have used up its ammunition -- and the faith investors and planners have put in it.
"[The Fed] will be between a rock and hard place. And we're not over-worrying about credit. But [simultaneously], we need to start worrying about the real sector," he said.

And if inflation wasn't the prime recession cause, it's still a menace. The professor points to the two-pronged danger of high oil prices joined by climbing food prices, harming businesses and scaring consumers."Oil is particularly bad," as it means that more U.S. dollars "will be going abroad," he said.
The housing downturn is an even worse economic factor than casual observers realized, Stiglitz said. He explained that during the real estate boom, Americans were able to withdraw billions of dollars from their home equity."[But] with housing prices coming down, it's going to be difficult to do that anymore," he said -- drying up a spending source. And within that problem, still another complication: people typically spent the money they drew off their home equity on consumption, rather than investment -- garnering no return on the spending.
"The savings rate as we go into the recession is zero. Which means [savings] will go up, " he said—decreasing consumer spending and weakening retail further.

What about the government stimulus package?"The Bush Administration's response is too little, too late -- and very badly designed," he declared. The amount ostensibly being infused into the economy by tax rebate checks will be a "drop in the bucket" compared to the money being held back and siphoned out by the factors he mentioned."If you really wanted to stimulate the economy, increase unemployment insurance," he suggested. (That would require giving money to the less fortunate which is anathema to 'silver spoon specimens' like Bush. - Jesse)"The president is telling people to go out and get jobs—and there are no jobs for them," he said.

"If the American people ever allow private banks [like the Fed] to control the issue of their currency...the banks and the corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their [fore] fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."

Thomas Jefferson, letter to Secretary of the Treasury, Albert Gallatin (1802)

"The market is female. Neither you nor I are ever going to figure it out ---- but we just might get lucky from time to time."

Wednesday, April 23, 2008


These interests control the Federal Reserve through about 300 stockholders:
Rothschild Banks of London and Berlin
Lazard Brothers Bank of Paris
Israel Moses Seif Bank of Italy
Warburg Bank of Hamburg and Amsterdam
Lehman Brothers Bank of New York
Kuhn, Loeb and Co. of New York
Chase Manhattan Bank of New York
Goldman, Sachs of New York


Thus the proposed Federal Reserve Bank was to be "controlled by Congress" and answerable to the government, but the majority of the directors were to be chosen, "directly or indirectly" by the banks of the association. In the final refinement of Warburg’s plan, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors would be appointed by the President of the United States, but the real work of the Board would be controlled by a Federal Advisory Council, meeting with the Governors. The Council would be chosen by the directors of the twelve Federal Reserve Banks, and would remain unknown to the public.

It’s the stuff conspiracy theories are made of, but the fact is, twelve people overwhelmingly control the United States economy and they are not elected or appointed by the government. They are known as the Federal Reserve System and may be to blame for the downfall of the American economy.

**THESE ARE ALL MUST READS be informed is to live, AND NOT BE be a fool is to live a canmake a difference.


Tuesday, April 22, 2008


Guy comes in….I say “how’s biz?” he says “biz is GREAT!!!!!!” What biz you in?”

He works with the banks to unload FORECLOSURES!! Been doing this since 1995

“We are selling for 50 cents on dollar” he sets up eviction, fixes up if necessary…..try to sell them fast.

For himself he bought “18 acres in Jarretsville, 3,800 sq foot home built in 1992…..for $520K was listed ? over $800K bank ate rest.

He normally carries about 60 homes in inventory….he now has 200-300….”its taking longer to sell.”

He sees his numbers swelling to near 400…..”It is picking up not slowing down” someone will make a killing here and it wont be the banks

He sees it getting worse as “we haven’t even gotten to the Alternate A homes yet due in next 3 months,,,,” and more subprime…..will take another year and half to clear them out.


Sunday, April 20, 2008



Setting the Backdrop for Stage Two:

Martin Feldstein, Harvard professor and former chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, wrote an op-ed piece in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal – “Enough with Interest Rate Cuts” – worthy of comment.
“It’s time for the Federal Reserve to stop reducing the federal funds rate, because the likely benefit is small compared to the potential damage. Lower interest rates could raise the already high prices of energy and food, which are already triggering riots in developing countries. In order to offset the inflationary impact of higher imported commodity prices, central banks in those countries may raise interest rates. Such contractionary policies would reduce real incomes and exacerbate political instability.
The impact of low interest rates on commodity-price inflation is different from the traditional inflationary effect of easy money. The usual concern is that lowering interest rates stimulates economic activity to a point at which labor and product markets cause wages and prices to rise. That is unlikely to happen in the U.S. in the coming year. The general weakness of the economy will keep most wages and prices from rising more rapidly. But high unemployment and low capacity utilization would not prevent lower interest rates from driving up commodity prices.
Many factors have contributed to the recent rise in the prices of oil and food, especially the increased demand from China, India and other rapidly growing countries. Lower interest rates also add to the upward pressure on these commodity prices – by making it less costly for commodity investors and commodity speculators to hold larger inventories of oil and food grains. Lower interest rates induce investors to add commodities to their portfolios. When rates are low, portfolio investors will bid up the prices of oil and other commodities to levels at which the expected future returns are in line with the lower rates. An interest rate-induced rise in the price of oil also contributes indirectly to higher prices of food grains. It does so by making it profitable for farmers to devote more farm land to growing corn for ethanol.”
While I concur with the basic premise of the article (stop the cuts!), the substance of Mr. Feldstein’s analysis leaves much to be desired. First of all, I find it strange than he would address the issues of overly accommodative Federal Reserve policy, commodity price risk, and inflationary pressures without so much as a cursory mention of our weak currency. The word “dollar” is nowhere to be found – not a mention of our Current Account Deficits. The focus is only on interest rates - and such one-dimensional analysis just doesn’t pass muster in our complex world.
Most remain comfortably oblivious to today’s inflation dynamics. Mr. Feldstein mentions increased demand from China and India. He seems to imply, however, that portfolio buying (financed by low interest rates) by “commodity investors and speculators” is providing the major impetus to rising inflationary pressures generally. Perhaps price gains could have something to do with the $2.5 TN increase in global official reserve positions over the past two years (85% growth). I would also counter that destabilizing speculative activity is an inevitable consequence – rather than a cause - of an alarmingly inflationary global backdrop.
I’ll remind readers that we live in a unique world of unregulated Credit. Excess has evolved to the point of being endemic to an apparatus that operates without any mechanism for adjustment or self-correction. There is, of course, no gold reserve system to restrain domestic monetary expansions. Some years back the dollar-based Bretton Woods global monetary regime lost its relevance. And, importantly, the market-based disciplining mechanism (“king dollar”) that emerged at times to ruthlessly punish financial profligacy around the globe throughout the nineties has morphed into a dysfunctional dynamic that these days nurtures self-reinforcing excesses. The “recycling” of our “Bubble dollars” (in the process inflating local Credit systems, asset markets, commodities and economies across the globe) directly back into our securities markets rests at the epicenter of Global Monetary Dysfunction.
A historic inflation in dollar financial claims was the undoing of anything resembling a global monetary system, and now this anchorless “system” of wildcat finance is the bane of financial and economic stability. To be sure, massive and unrelenting U.S. Current Account Deficits and resulting dollar impairment have unleashed domestic Credit systems around the globe to expand uncontrollably. Today, virtually any major Credit system can and does inflate domestic Credit to create the purchasing power to procure inflating global food, energy, and commodities prices.
The long-overdue U.S. Credit contraction and economic adjustment could change this dynamic. But for now there are reasons to expect this uninhibited Global Credit Bubble to instead run to precarious extremes - and for resulting Monetary Disorder to become increasingly problematic. Destabilizing price movements and myriad inflationary effects are poised to worsen. The specter of yet another year of near-$800bn Current Account Deficits coupled with huge speculative flows out of dollars is just too much for an acutely overheated and unstable global currency and economic “system” to cope with.
I hear pundits still referring to a “deflationary Credit collapse.” Well, the U.S. Credit system implosion was largely stopped in its tracks last month. The Fed bailed out Bear Stearns; opened wide its discount window to Wall Street; and implemented unprecedented liquidity facilities for the benefit of the marketplace overall. Central banks around the globe executed unparalleled concerted market liquidity operations. Here at home, the GSEs’ regulator spoke publicly about Fannie and Freddie having the capacity to add $200 billion of mortgages to their balances sheets, with the possibility of increasing their guarantee business as much as $2 TN this year (certainly including “jumbo” mortgages). The Federal Home Loan Bank system was given the ok to continue aggressive liquidity injections and balloon its balance sheet in the process. And now (see “GSE Watch” above) we see that the Federal Housing Administration (with its new mandate and $729,550 loan limit) is likely to increase federal government mortgage insurance by as much as $200bn this year, while Washington’s Ginnie Mae is in the midst of a securitization boom.
Together, the Fed and Washington have effectively nationalized a large portion of both mortgage and market liquidity risk. It is, as well, worth noting that JPMorgan Chase expanded assets by $80.7bn during the first quarter (20.7% annualized) to $1.642 TN, with six-month growth of $163.3bn (22.1% annualized). Goldman Sachs expanded its balance sheets by $69.2bn during Q1 (24.7% annualized) to $1.189 TN, with half-year growth of $143.2bn (27.4%). Even Wells Fargo grew assets at an almost 14% pace this past quarter. And we know that Bank Credit overall has expanded at a 12.6% rate over the past 38 weeks. Meanwhile, GSE MBS issuance has been ramped up to a record pace. And let’s not forget the Credit intermediation function now being carried out by the money fund complex – with assets having increased an unprecedented $371bn y-t-d (41.3% annualized) and $900bn over the past 38 weeks (47.7% annualized). It is also worth noting the $184bn y-t-d increase (29% annualized) in foreign “custody” holdings held at the Fed. Sure, the Credit system remains under significant stress, with additional mortgage and corporate Credit deterioration in the offing. But, at least for now, policymakers have successfully stemmed systemic deleveraging. The Credit system is simply not in deflationary collapse mode.
I could not be more pessimistic with regard to our economy’s prognosis. And certainly much more severe Credit problems lay ahead. I could argue further that recent Credit system developments are indeed consistent with the unfolding “worst-case scenario”. Yet I tend this evening to see benefits from analyzing the current backdrop in terms of the conclusion of the first Stage of the Crisis. The key aspect of this “first Stage” was a breakdown in Wall Street’s highly leveraged risk intermediation and securities speculation markets. The speed and force of the unwind was extraordinary and in notable contrast to traditional banking crises that track real economy developments. “Resolution” came only through the Federal Reserve and federal government assuming unprecedented risk – and at a cost of a policymaking mix of interest-rate cuts, marketplace interventions, and government guarantees. It is worth pondering some of the near-term ramifications.
First of all – and as the market recognized this week – yields have been driven to excessively low levels. Fed funds are today ridiculously priced in comparison both to the inflationary backdrop and to global rates. Mr. Feldstein is calling for a halt to rate cuts when it would be more appropriate for the Fed to move immediately to return rates to a more reasonable level. They, of course, would not contemplate as much. So I will presume that today’s non-imploding Credit system – replete with government-backed mortgage securitizations, government-guaranteed bank Credit, presumed government-backstopped money funds and a recovering debt issuance apparatus – will suffice in the near-term in generating Credit sufficient to perpetuate our enormous Current Account Deficits. This is no minor point.
I have in past Bulletins made the case that U.S. Credit and Economic Bubbles had become untenable – the scope of Credit and risk intermediation necessary to support the maladjusted economy had become too large. Extraordinary measures to effectively “nationalize” mortgage and market liquidity risk change somewhat the direction of the analysis. I would today argue that the risk of a precipitous economic downturn has been reduced in the near-term. As a consequence, U.S. Credit growth could surprise on the upside with risks to global Price Instability increasing markedly.
I would argue firmly that – in the face of a rapidly weakening economic backdrop - global inflation dynamics coupled with our highly maladjusted economy ensure intractable trade deficits. I would further argue that the current inflationary backdrop will prove an impetus to Credit creation – that then begets only more heightened inflationary pressures. There are certainly indications that the over-liquefied global “system” is not well situated today to handle more dollar liquidity (akin to throwing gas on a fire). Inflation and its consequences have quickly become major issues around the world.
With crude hitting a record $117 today, there is every reason to expect that newly created global liquidity will further inflate energy, food, and commodity prices generally. The Goldman Sachs Commodities index has gained 21% already this year. But when it comes to Monetary Instability, our financial markets might just prove the unappreciated wildcard. When the Fed and Washington radically altered the rules of U.S. finance last month, they placed in jeopardy huge positions that had been put in place to hedge against and profit from systemic crisis. With the end of “Stage one” arises a major short squeeze in the Credit, equities, and derivatives markets. And when it comes to contemplating the scope and ramifications of today’s “hedging” activities, we’re clearly in Uncharted Waters. It is not beyond reason that a disorderly unwind of “bearish” Credit market positions could incite a mini bout of liquidity, speculation, and Credit excess that exacerbates Global Monetary Instability - while Setting the Backdrop for Stage Two of the Crisis.

Friday, April 18, 2008


RISING PRICES< FALLING ECONOMIC ACTIVY!! That's what the FED action has brought us< AND the 10 yr treasury yield is now near 3.8% !!! is this helping home owners?

LOOK at 200o on LEI chart....look at today, nuf said! hope is fine....if it's backed up



**Click chart to enlarge....I have labeled few areas of potential resistance, let's see how GOOG does, it will vault near $80 a share pre open



Citigroup stumbles again
6:45am: Financial services giant records $5.1 billion loss, missing forecasts, after taking more than $12 billion in writedowns.

Oil nears $115, gas gets pricier

E*Trade cuts back as recession looms (not here yet?) (Goog transcript) 51% of rev's from overseas

Yahoo! appears to be pushing its luck. On April 10, the struggling Internet portal said it was testing a partnership to allow Google to host a small percentage of its search advertisements for two weeks. On Thursday, a week later, it inched further toward a long-term deal with Google because the companies are pleased with the initial results of the experiment, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The problem, as Microsoft (nasdaq: MSFT - news - people ) pointed out in a statement last week, is that any potential deal between Google (nasdaq: GOOG - news - people ) and Yahoo! (nasdaq: YHOO - news - people ) raises antitrust concerns: Google receives 67% of all searches, and Yahoo! hosts 20%, according to March data from Web traffic analysis firm Hitwise. Combined, the two would represent a near monopoly of the search market.
Sharing its ad space with Google would also mean a quick revenue bump for Yahoo!, thanks to Google's higher percentage of clicks on ads. But just how far can a Yahoo! and Google liaison go?
"I hate to admit it, but Microsoft is right," asserts Robert Lande, a member of the American Antitrust Institute. "The closer Google and Yahoo! get to a deal, the closer they get to some very serious antitrust problems."
At the same time,

But Google said so-called paid clicks grew 20% in the first quarter over the same year-ago quarter, and 4% over 2007's fourth quarter.

Google is only paid by its search advertisers when users click on such links.
Recent data from comScore Inc. has shown tepid paid-click growth during the first quarter, stirring concerns about the impact of the U.S. economic slowdown on Google and helping send its shares more than 30% lower between the beginning of the year and Thursday's earnings report.
Earlier this week, comScore reported that Google's paid clicks rose only 1.8% in the quarter compared with the period a year earlier, though its data don't include Google's international search markets. Google said Thursday that its paid clicks actually grew 20% in the quarter compared with the period a year earlier.
During a conference call with analysts, Chief Executive Eric Schmidt noted that the paid-click growth was "much higher than has been speculated by third parties."
Still, Google's 20% paid-click growth nonetheless marked a slowdown compared with the 30% growth in Google's previous, fourth fiscal quarter.
That's because the company, according to Collins Stewart analyst Sandeep Aggarwal, seems to be making the most out of the clicks that it's managing to get. "Maybe they are getting higher keyword prices from their advertisers. It was a beat quarter."

Part of that maturation has involved overseas expansion. Google announced that its international revenue reached $2.65 billion, or 51% of its total, compared with 47% of the total in the same period a year earlier.


Seems like a lot of short covering, but the theory is...what? Earnings out, brokers unlikely to get worse? Well, sort of. As one trader in financials noted to me, "earnings have to be real bad, not just in line" to keep short positions on.
That's true, but the case for getting bullish is broader than that. Simply put, here's out the bulls are explaining it to me:
1) The write downs mean anything anymore, the story is old, the numbers are meaningless.
2) Probably one or two more rounds of it but the sentiment doesnt really change that much.
3) They are historically cheap, they have survived the meltdown and had no problems raising outside capital.
The downside to this game, as others have noted, is that if the quarter progresses and business is not getting any better, shorts will go right back on again.

Thursday, April 17, 2008


It's normal during bear rallies to rise and challenge the declining Moving Avg's, until I SEE differently, I remain defensive against a weekly close above this area, then I wil reasess.

GOOG up huge in AH trading, see is bulls can grab the ball and run with it. technology has been showing relative strength here.



April 10, 2008
After the many dramatic events over the past two weeks - we're all saved! At least that is the message being preached in the US.
The Dow is above 12,000 again. The S&P 500 is above 1300. The US Dollar even had a global rally in the lead-up to Easter. Its nemesis, Gold, fell nearly $US 86 in three trading days and Oil went back to $US 100.
That General Perception Is Entirely False:
In principle, not one economic or financial issue has been solved or even addressed. All the fundamental US problems are still there. They have been literally papered over. The Fed cut interest rates and slammed still more new fresh money into the US financial system to keep it liquid. The Fed is exposing its own balance sheet to an amazing degree, offering up $US 400 Billion in Treasuries as short duration "swaps" in return for unmarketable toxic sludge of US mortgage paper.
The Fed had held about $US 800 Billion in Treasury paper, paper that it acquired by "monetising" the US Treasury's debts. This paper is at the core of the Fed's financial holdings. It is the Fed's major "asset". Now, by having sent $US 400 Billion out the door, the Fed has in fact sold down its capital by half. Please note here that the Fed's liabilities – the US Federal Reserve Notes (US Dollars) - have not fallen in quantity.
If any private financial company had done what the Fed has done, most people in finance would instantly recognise that its liability to asset ratio had doubled. That alone would make holding its liabilities, US Dollars, much more dangerous. What is certain is that the Fed cannot repeat what it has just done. To do so would strip it entirely of capital on its own balance sheet. If the Fed is not now "done" - then it is done for!
A Financial Strategic Overview Of The US:
There are three main economic forces at work inside the US economy. The first is monetary and financial and involves an involuntary de-leveraging of US banks and financial institutions. Everybody is trying to contract credit issued while holding the cash still rolling in. This is contracting the volume of credit quite dramatically and adding to the liquidity crisis inside the US. The second is the situation inside the US economy as it rolls into recession, seen in the fact that nearly nine million US households now have "upside down" mortgages. For the first time ever, aggregate mortgage debt is bigger, by $US 836 Billion, than the total value of homeowner equity. A credit contraction augmented by (real estate) price deflation is a huge monetary and economic force. These two forces are mercilessly squeezing the third force, which is the Fed (aided by the US Treasury). The Fed is caught in a vice from which there is no escape.
The Walls Are Closing In On The Fed:
On March 18, the Fed Funds rate was cut by 0.75 percent to 2.25 percent. The Discount Rate was cut by 0.75 percent - after having been cut by 0.25 percent two days previously – to 2.50 percent. Here too the Fed's back is up against the wall. Having exposed its capital to genuine market risk, the Fed cannot make a similar move again or it would stand stripped of all its core capital.
In terms of the interest rates it offers to US banks and other US financial institutions, a few more emergency cuts would put the Fed in the same position as the Bank of Japan with rates of 0.5 percent. The Fed Funds rate is absurd with US internal consumer prices climbing at 4.3 percent annually.
The Climbing Danger To The US Dollar AND The US Treasury:
The alarm bells should be ringing all over New York and in Washington DC. Foreigners have noticed these recent massive falls in the US Dollar. On their own balance sheets, when accounted back into their own currencies, they are looking at enormous losses. So far, these losses have not been brought to book since that would knock huge holes in the balance sheets of their own commercial banks' and other financial institutions which hold US Dollars and/or US paper assets. That will come later this year. Most private banks normally only have to report in depth once a year. When large losses start appearing on the books of a bank - and they will - the usual reaction is a buyers' strike, followed by sales of the "asset".
International investors are now avoiding US financial assets, making it harder for the Treasury to fund a growing budget deficit. NET sales of US stocks and bonds by private foreign investors totalled $US 38.2 Billion in January, the most since September, the US Treasury Department reported on March 17.
This is the precise point where any further cuts in interest rates by the US Fed become deadly dangerous. The Fed could end up in a situation where its official interest rates are so low that no foreign buyers show up at a scheduled US Treasury auction! Were that to happen, it would be like a global call to all the rest of the world to STOP CREDIT to the USA! We are not there yet, but foreigners are slowly leaving.
To see this, examine what happened to Bear Stearns the week before it nearly crashed. It could not borrow funds from anywhere but it still had its scheduled payments to meet. In mid March, Bear Stearns' cash holdings fell from $US 17 Billion to less than $US 2 Billion. This is the direction in which the US Treasury is now heading. If the US Treasury cannot borrow from foreign sources of money, it cannot fund its fast climbing budget deficit! But the Treasury too still has to pay money out to finance the US government's $US 3 TRILLION plus budget. When the Treasury's till is empty, it will have to send all the sequential truckloads of debt paper over to the Fed, which will have to accept all it gets. Then, the Treasury's debts will be "monetised" to an extent never
seen before!
It is this, a Fed "monetisation" of US Treasury debt paper - where the Fed creates new US Dollars as fast as US Treasury's debts arrive - which is the greatest danger to the international value of the US Dollar.
Travelling Further Along The Road To Weimar:
This process too was a part of the three-year Weimar Republic sequence which destroyed Germany's currency. Back then, even if the German Treasury could report that total tax revenue had climbed by 600 percent, this was totally overpowered by the fact that internal prices in Germany had climbed by 8000 percent over the same time period. In fact, the German Treasury was short of money and government services all across Germany were contracting at ferocious speeds on that account alone.
The need to overcome this involuntary contraction of government services forced the German Treasury to send its debt paper straight over to the central bank which then looked at the face value amounts and printed ever more paper money, simply adding ever more " zeroes" to all of it.
Ó 2008 – The Privateer


Merrill Lynch posts first-quarter loss amid more write-downs on credit investments

NEW YORK (AP) -- Merrill Lynch has reported a steep first-quarter loss after more write-downs related to the troubled credit markets.
The world's largest brokerage says it lost $2.14 billion, or $2.19 per share, compared to a profit of $2.11 billion, or $2.26 per share, a year earlier. Revenue has fallen 69 percent to $2.93 billion from $9.6 billion a year earlier.
Thomson Financial says analysts expected a loss of $1.99 per share on $3.7 billion of revenue.
New York-based Merrill says it wrote down $1.5 billion related to troubled debt instruments and took a $3 billion adjustment related to protection on certain kinds of debt.

Watch 1400 on SPX if broken and held could be matter what facts abound....did the FEd do enough and forstall the DAY OF RECKONING?


Tuesday, April 15, 2008



Areas I have drawn I think are support and resistance, if 2008 lows go good chance we go to 10,000, we now connect 2000 top with 2008 lows for that trend line.

If 10,000 goes I think we test 2002 lows...crazy right? 14,000 top is the HEAD....we have beuilt left now right shoulder

Recent action in trading range still, but weakish



For those who haven't read, this guy was one of first to sound alarms, so INTELLIGENTLY DONE!



Interesting guy, some great resources and reads, especially on the ETHANOL SCAM.

Nothing will change until we together demand it.....

Welcome to my blog Monique, always great talking to you, hope you find something of interest!


Kevin Phillips

"Knowledge is POWER" "the US $$ is the gladiator, and it's bleeding on the field"



Prepare for LEAN YEARS DOWN THE ROAD, power is shifting away from the US as we become net debtor ot the world....where foreign sovereign funds have to BAIL US OUT.


Friday, April 11, 2008


GE Posts Lower 1Q Profit, Cuts Outlook- AP
General Electric Co. reported a smaller-than-expected first-quarter profit on Friday and lowered its outlook for the full year, sending its shares down almost 10 percent in premarket trading as a slowing U.S. economy sapped its financial services business.


IMPORT prices up 1.1$ EX OIL???? largest jump in 20-30 years??? CAN FED KEEP LOWERING??? US $$ GETTING DUMPED AM. TREND IS OBVIOUS

....... Russel calling BULL from 1980 never ended....Brinker new highs for 2008......where is that light?


Wednesday, April 09, 2008


Most read MarketWatch stories
Richard Russell is forecasting epic bull...
U.S. stock futures flat as UPS warns
35 signs the market hasn't hit bottom


Most read MarketWatch stories
Richard Russell is forecasting epic bull...
U.S. stock futures flat as UPS warns
35 signs the market hasn't hit bottom


MUSCATINE, Iowa (AP) -- HNI Corp. missed expectations in the first quarter because a deteriorating economy and waning consumer confidence are eating into sales, the home and office furniture maker said Wednesday.
The company said sales and profit in the office furniture segment declined significantly in the first quarter, falling 6 percent because of weak sales to small office and home office customers.
Swelling costs for materials and plant consolidations are also eating into profit, the company said.

Friday, April 04, 2008

BEAR CASE OR 6 PACK?$SPX&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p53661529646&a=135134819
Many ways to look at TA, this is just my view.

SNDK nice pop off lows, was telling friends last week has been in PAST good buy near $20, some decided to buy the 22.50 calls....RIMM ect good longs off lows....always a trade to be found, just like to know where I am in trend and cycle while doing it.
Gold and OIL I am not sure to be honest, think some beaten down good, and bull not show killed.... Largest growth in ADJ M in some time
.... Each of the past 2 easing cycles started from HIGHER RATES (more ammo) and ended at LOWER Rates (LESS AMMO) IN last 20 years I could not find another time of a faster cutting environment, and only found ONE other 75 BP cut (as far as Gov data I could find) That period incl longest runing bull mkt. LOWS were made when CUTTING cycle had ended (was a good time to buy.....) With MY TA telling me Bear is YOUNG (or NO bull signal yet)

I am keeping powder DRY and feel GOOD CHANCE we SEE 1% or LOWER rates ahead......

ALL and I MEAN ALL the biz people I talk to see NO LIGHT YET, ALL said environment is getting "WORSE" BUT WDIK....I hope this changes soon..... you tell me WHAT are the signs of improving LIQUIDITY? YOU tell me if a BUBBLE (CREDIT?DEBT ETC) can be reinflated as it is trying to deflate and UNWIND?


Thursday, April 03, 2008



Treasury Undersecretary Robert Steel echoed Bernanke's comments, noting that the government's focus was "not on this specific institution, but on the more strategic concern of the implications of a bankruptcy. "The failure of a firm that was connected to so many corners of our markets would have caused financial disruptions beyond Wall Street," he said. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's chief executive, said his firm would not have agreed to buy Bear without the Fed's financial backing, and insisted that JPMorgan did not "cherry pick" the best Bear assets. Under its deal with the Fed, JPMorgan will have to incur the first $1 billion in any losses should Bear's assets deteriorate further.

**HEY what's $30B to JPM??? this smells.....another bank will go... liquidity is drying up. banks dont want to lend...venture capital co's out of money...funded newbie companies IPO stream....NO HOME ATM' wage growth, job losses, delcining home values,defaults rising,credit cards next,free money not flowing to Hedgies,deleveraging continues....levering up good..unwinding bad.......OK friends, what makes up for all this lost stream? exactly and I wonder who thinks SPX profits also arent coming back to earth as RIMM goes to 18X book 13X sales ASSININE


Wednesday, April 02, 2008


NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. rose sharply Tuesday and helped rally broader markets, as the investment bank raised $4 billion in new capital to shore up its liquidity position.
It was $1 billion more than Lehman had said it planned to raise just Monday night; Lehman said the offering was oversubscribed.
Lehman (LEH, Fortune 500) shares rose $6.70, or 17.8%, to close at $44.34, as investors brushed off the dilution from the new shares, which will reduce their ownership stake in the company.
Lehman's efforts are aimed at reassuring investors that the company has enough cash to handle any market demands, unlike competitor Bear Stearns Cos. In March, Bear Stearns faced liquidity problems that led it to near-bankruptcy and forced its sale to JPMorgan Chase & Co. for about $10 per share.
Analysts were mixed about the size and timing of Lehman's preferred stock offering.
"It seems evident that Lehman is being pushed hard by the markets to prove its balance sheet is safe," Punk, Ziegel & Co. analyst Richard Bove wrote in a research note. "By raising additional capital and liquefying the balance sheet, the company hopes to put these fears to rest."
Bove expects the stock offering to raise enough cash to help reduce fears and push the stock higher.
But unlike Bove, Sandler, O'Neill & Partners LP analyst Jeff Harte said Lehman's raising of capital might be a red flag, as he questioned the timing of the offer.
"Management's willingness to raise a large amount of capital after the recent dramatic share price declines implies a more pressing capital need," Harte wrote in a research note. Shares of Lehman declined 42% during the first three months of the year.
Fitch Ratings affirmed its investment-grade "AA-" issuer default ratings for Lehman in the wake of the stock offering, but placed a negative outlook on the bank. The outlook represents Fitch's view that the bank could face earnings pressure because of continued weakness in the capital and mortgage markets.
Lehman was not the only bank to announce its capital raising intentions Tuesday. Swiss bank UBS said it plans to seek $15.1 billion in new cash as it looks to improve its capital position. UBS said it lost $12.1 billion during the first quarter, including a $19 billion write-down tied to deterioration in the mortgage markets.
Lehman will raise the money through the issuance of convertible preferred stock. The preferred stock will carry a dividend rate of 7.25%. Holders of the preferred stock, which is priced at $1,000 per share, will have the option of converting them at any time to 20.0509 shares of Lehman's common stock.
The conversion represents a price of about $49.87 per share of common stock. The deal will dilute the bank's current stock by about 80 million shares, or 14% of current common stock outstanding, Buckingham Research Group analyst James Mitchell said