Monday, June 23, 2008


UPS Drastically Cuts Outlook- AP
UPS, the world's largest shipping carrier, says it is lowering its earnings expectations for the second quarter because of slowing U.S. economic growth and high fuel costs.

Boy that's a surprise huh? It's in words they bold. New 52 wk low in AH

No sign of bottom nor rally.....rally on what? No one has any of future biz.

FED will keep steady on rates.....headlines read....then will inflation and th0se watching take heed from this, will US $ get dumped...interest rates may rise....ROCK N HARD PLACE instead of ROLL

Maybe see ya July 5th


Saturday, June 21, 2008


Last post for awhile?

Mainly because I put lots of time, thoguht and effort here, and I am not getting an adequate amount of lurker feedback, so there is NO way other than YOU leaving a comment here for me and others that I can tell if ANYONE reads what I post.

SO w/o further ado

Pressure of inflation on profits, declining consumer confidence and ability to ramp up consumption, trouble at the major banks around the world, meaning money available is ONLY ST money, needing to be repaid to the FED, they NEED investors to loan them LONGER term money at some point CONFIDENCE gets restored in CDO’s and other instruments of CREDIT EXPANSION.

I do not think too many are even aware of the Kondratieff cycle (or know how to spell it), and what kind of power it will exert going forward.

What is happening now is needed to correct the imbalances and gorging that has come before it, and normally it happens much faster and retraces back to its beginning.

How far is needed to correct this in terms of Dow points we won’t know until it is over, a shock it would be if we find ourselves challenging the 2002 or 2003 lows!

The markets break and close below 12,000 is significant and the problems created by the commodity bubble are just now being felt and dealt with.

We have WEAK economy, we have inflation, we have already LOW interest rates, a murdered dollar, so where to now…..


Friday, June 06, 2008



I Just got confirmed from my REP HON company (one of top 3 in country) is raising prices in July 3% but in last 3 months they have been forced to take more action, IN OCT they will pass along an avg of 8.5% ADDT’L INCREASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

OIL could go to $0 tomorrow, and it will take MANY months for this shit to filter thru and or out…recent Head and Shoulders I see on SPX has been broken (by my charting) (meaning trip down to 1325 for sure at min)

MY friends, maybe the IN CROWD and play with this mkt some more, but I suspect this BEAR is JUST getting started

Europe will raise rates to ward off inflation (fight it), FED is done and the US $$ toilet paper as it is is under siege again.

I talk to a LOT of people, my bass teacher (34 yr old guy) knows the problem…..”FED PRINTING PRESS’….DEFEND OUR SHORES DEFEND OUR CURRENCY….none of the knuckleheads running have a clue

Tuesday, June 03, 2008


Fed signals end to rate cuts -

Business - Fed signals end to rate cuts

May 25, 2008 JEANNINE AVERSAAP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) – Sounding a gong couldn't have made it clearer. Federal Reserve officials are putting out the word that further interest rate cuts are unlikely.
Fed Governor Kevin Warsh ditched the central bank's cryptic word tangles and actually waxed poetic. "Even if the economy were to weaken somewhat further, we should be inclined to resist expected, reflexive calls to trot out the hammer again," Warsh said, referring to the Fed's key interest rate.
Speaking more central-bankerly, the Fed's No. 2 official, Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, said the current stance of interest-rate policy "appears to be appropriately calibrated for now." Janet Yellen, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, called the current level of rates "appropriate.''
They are amplifying a signal sent by Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues last month that the Fed's most aggressive rate-cutting campaign in two decades may be winding down – finally. The cuts started in September and take months to work their way through the economy.
That does not mean the economy, badly bruised by housing, credit and financial woes, is out of the woods. The Fed, though, is hoping its powerful doses of cuts, along with the government's relief plan of tax rebates and breaks will help lift the economy in the second half of this year.
Zooming prices for energy and food and other commodity prices are raising some concerns that inflation could take off and spread through the economy. Further reductions in interest rates would aggravate the situation.
In fact, the Fed's last rate reduction in late April was "a close call," according to recently released documents of those private deliberations. At that time, two Fed members favored no cut at all, given the concerns about inflation.
Many economists believe the Fed will hold its key rate steady at 2 percent, a four-year-low, at its next meeting on June 24-25 and probably through much, if not all, of 2008.
Holding rates at this level should help foster better economic and employment conditions and moderate inflation, Kohn said.
"The Fed's advertised reluctance to cut again is a wise one,'' said Terry Connelly, dean of Golden Gate University's Ageno School of Business.
Here's what Fed policymakers are up against: Cut rates and bolster a weak economy where employers are eliminating jobs and consumers are pulling back; raise rates and fend off inflation.
With the housing market still flailing and foreclosures at record highs, policymakers probably would shy from pushing up rates – even with the specter of inflation – as the country prepares to vote for a new president, some analysts said.
"The Fed has spent the last eight months ushering homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages to safety by repeatedly cutting interest rates. They won't want to throw them back under the bus by raising interest rates too much, too soon," said Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at "Candidates would have a field day," he said.
Bernanke has said the election would not color the Fed's decisions. "Political considerations will play no role. We will be objective. We will be analytical, and we will do what is right for the economy," he said.
The Fed's political independence is crucial to its ability to maintain credibility with investors on Wall Street and around the globe.
The combination of slow growth and rising inflation has raised fears the country may be headed for a bout of stagflation for the first time since the 1970s. Bernanke and other Fed officials, however, say that is not the case.
Oil prices are marching past $130 a barrel, gasoline prices are closing in on $4 a gallon nationally and food prices are skyrocketing. Given all that, Fed officials cannot afford to let inflation take hold. Once that happens, it can be difficult and painful to break inflation. It could force the Fed to raise rates, which would puts the brakes on spending. Inflation eats into paychecks, whittles away the value of investments and cuts into corporate profits.
"Inflation has been elevated for some time and prices of commodities are surging," Warsh said. "I find these trends particularly vexing at a time when global demand growth, most likely, has slowed," he said.
The Fed's rate reductions since last year have contributed to the drop in value of the dollar. The diminished greenback has been a factor pushing up prices for oil and other commodities. Kohn, however, believed the sagging dollar's role in rising commodity prices "probably has been a small one.''
For now, the Fed is forecasting slower economic growth, higher unemployment and a bigger pickup in inflation for this year than it thought just a few months ago. But Fed officials acknowledge the uncertain environment makes them less confident in their projections.
And conditions can change quickly.
In October the Fed signaled it was going to hit the pause button on rate-cutting campaign. At the time, Fed officials believed additional cuts might not be needed to help the economy survive housing and credit stresses. Then conditions deteriorated, forcing the Fed to do an about-face and lower rates again in December.
AP-ES-05-25-08 1055EDT


Credit-Card Use Is Surging, Risking Another Debt CrisisTuesday June 3, 1:56 pm ET CNBC

Cash-strapped Americans are ringing up more and more purchases on their credit and debit cards, but there could be a steep price to pay ahead.

Though the trend is a boon for the companies that issue the cards, analysts worry that there could be long-term problems not only for consumers but for the anemic economy and the already-troubled banks that will be underwriting all that risky debt.

"Right now what we're seeing is the US consumer losing their disposable income as they have to spend more and more on necessities because of higher prices for gas and food," says Ron Ianieri, a market strategist and co-founder of the Options University investor education center.

"Normally when you have a certain budget and you can't keep up with the budget one of the easy steps is to extend that budget using credit."

One of the main problems with that is US consumers--and their counterparts in Europe as well--already are delinquent on their credit card payments in numbers not seen in six years. The Federal Reserve last week said credit card delinquencies hit 4.86 percent in the first quarter in 2008, while revolving debt--or the type used in credit purchases--hit $957.2 billion in March, a 7.9 percent increase.

As all that risky, high-interest debt keeps accumulating, consumers will find themselves deeper in a hole that threatens to keep the economy in its sluggish state. Economists worry that the problems are being exacerbated by consumers using credit not only to buy big-screen TVs and patio furniture, but also to pay their mortgages and shop for groceries.

"There's a significant risk to people who are using credit cards to help them try to bridge the gaps that they're facing," says Sean Snaith, director of the University of Central Florida's Institute for Economic Competitiveness. "The reality is the economic picture isn't going to clear up instantaneously."

Meanwhile, the banks that underwrite the credit card debt stand to lose as the delinquencies continue to rise. Standard & Poor's on Monday issued a dour forecast for banks in 2008, in part because of their exposure to bad debt.

Ianieri ranks his "starting five" in terms of exposure to risky debt: Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH - News), Citigroup (NYSE:C - News), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC - News), UBS (NYSE:UBS - News) and Merrill Lynch (NYSE:MER - News).

"It's a disaster, it's a time bomb," Ianieri says. "The credit crisis is a lot more severe than it's being made out to be. I think the government is doing everything it can to keep the severity of this situation under wraps from the general population. I think they're just trying to bide time for these banks."

For the credit card companies, though, it's a different story.
Little to Lose

Visa and Mastercard back comparatively little of the credit actually issued through their cards, meaning they have a low level of risk for defaults and other payment issues. They get paid a fee each time someone uses their cards, and the banks that issue the cards assume responsibility for the debt.

As such, investors and analysts are fawning over the two companies in the face of consumer cash issues and the growth of emerging markets, where credit cards are only beginning to find

"The reality is probably some of it is hype, but some is based on fact," Snaith says. "'Check or cash' has been replaced by 'debit or credit' and that's going to be a continuing trend not just in the US but spreading worldwide."

In a note issued last Thursday, Lehman Brothers raised its outlook on Mastercard, escalating its price target to $335 from $300. Other analysts have joined in the enthusiasm, with Stifel Nicolaus on Tuesday jacking up its price target from $312 to $367.

Visa has gained from the enthusiasm for Mastercard. As of noontime trade Tuesday, both Visa (NYSE:V - News) and Mastercard (NYSE:MA - News) were up more than 12 percent since May 23.

"They have no risk. It's per transaction," says Nadav Baum, managing director of investments at BPU Investment Management. "That's why Visa and Mastercard are bucking the trend when it comes to the other financial companies. Even though they group them as a financial company, they're really not."

Lehman analyst Bruce Harting, in his research note on Mastercard, pointed out that the company believes it can duplicate its US business model in countries including Brazil, Hungary, Poland, Russia, India and China, nations where it projects 39 percent revenue growth.

Similarly, Americans shopping abroad might be more inclined to use their plastic as the dollar begins to gain ground against other currencies. A purchase in euros now could cost fewer dollars
by the time the next monthly bill rolls around if the US currency continues to appreciate.

"That's another reason why Mastercard and Visa will continue to do well," Baum says. "It's all hand-in-hand."

Finally, there are the responsible consumers who pay their bills in full every month and are joining the legions of people who no longer want to carry cash. They enjoy taking advantage of the rapid growth of retailers and restaurants offering debit options, plus using points they can
accumulate by utilizing their cards.

"The danger is in painting with a broad brush and casting all consumers as reluctant or unable to spend," says Greg McBride, senior analyst at "There are a lot of consumers that are not in the state of distress and can continue to spend in a manner that's not very different than a year or two ago when the economy was stronger. The card-holders that pay their balance in full every month, the incentive is for them to use the cards as much as possible."

*Fact is, many using credit cards to PAY BILLS, etc is of LAST RESORT and at 20% PLUS rates.....




1370 offers support, 1400 Resistance.



I am looking for a little more rally here, then good chance STEEP retrace is due.