Thursday, April 30, 2009
"The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. The index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea"
Friends, raw materials is what goes into making THINGS.....the BDI RISES when DEMAND FOR THINGS causes increased purchasing of the stuff to make things.....do YOU see a VAST improvement here?
Baltic Dry isn't a Latvian deodorant or an Estonian cocktail. Rather, it's a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange, which traces its roots to the Virginia and Baltick coffeehouse in London's financial district in 1744.
http://www.slate.com/id/2090303/ by Daniel Gross
The BDI is a good leading indicator for economic growth and production. After all, it doesn't deal with container ships carrying finished goods. It deals with the precursors to production: bulk carriers carrying building materials, cement, grain, coal, and iron. Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI "is totally devoid of speculative content," says Howard Simons, an economist and columnist at TheStreet.com. People don't book freighters unless they have cargo to move.SPX 200 EMA is around 965 and sure we could carry to there, sure this rally if gotten in early was a money maker......but the jury is still out to if the BEAR has been defeated....IMHO all I can tell is we are bouncing from news driven by the thinnest of premises.
I'm in retail and I cant wait to be proven wrong and stubbornly pessimistic.... watch UYG still below recent high near $3.90 and VIX now below 35....
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
NEW YORK – The Fed confirmed what Wall Street has already concluded: The recession is starting to ease.
Gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 6.1 percent, much steeper than the 5 percent forecast by economists polled by Thomson Reuters.
Investors were encourage by a rebound in consumer spending (loss of 6M jobs really?), which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, and a drop in business inventories. (BIZ adds inv when possitive about economy)
"BETTER THAN EXPECTED"
Better-than-expected earnings have been boosting the market as well. Media conglomerate Time Warner Inc. said its first-quarter profit fell 14 percent on deteriorating ad sales, but the results were better than expected.
Meanwhile, Citigroup, which has also received large amounts of federal aid, is trying to figure out how to retain workers. Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit has talked with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner about the possibility of paying special bonuses to keep demoralized workers from getting scooped up by competitors, a person familiar with the matter said.
TNX (10 yr note) could be ready to explode its 200 EMA is 31.23 near high of the day....leading to higher int rates. (EOD 30.96)
SPX 200 EMA is 953.80 (EOD 873)
TRANS 200 EMA 3489
I note this rally is coming on declining volume.
UYG (long financials) has yet to really break out. April high is $3.90 (EOD $3.56)
http://financialsense.com/series2/perspectives2.html Perfect storm series
First quarter real GDP dropped at a 6.1% annual rate in part because inventory contraction sliced a whopping 2.8% off the change. Real final sales, excluding inventories, fell at a 3.4% annual rate. Inventories count, though, as the lower levels reflect sharply lower production.
The business data in GDP were terrible. Investment in software and equipment fell at a 33.8% annual rate. Nonresidential construction spending (offices) fell at an amazing 44.2% annual rate. Both of these categories will continue lower. Businesses remain in retrenchment mode even if the rate of decline might slow.
Residential construction spending continued to plunge, and was down at a 38.0% annual rate.
Government spending fell at a 3.9% annual rate as state spending and defense spending contracted. This was another factor in the overall weaker GDP number compared to estimates.
Raw Data Available At: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Monday, April 27, 2009
The divergences continue as the rally loses steam and gets older and Bird Flu scare aside, the market is ready to retrace at a bear minimum, some of the gains off the lows.
There is SCANT REAL DATA of any uptick in the REAL ECONOMY, lending standards have stiffened, millions have lost jobs and no longer putting into 401K's, IPO's scarce, investment scarce, Gov and FED programs have had little effect.
Many think bear has been put asleep, but I have no technical data, in fact it is much alive. We have yet to challenge the 200 EMA......when this rally fades, see who steps up to plate, sure isnt avg Koe.
Friday, April 24, 2009
Tuesday, April 21, 2009
Usually after a 90% down day you will get a few days of rally, and if today was selective of what is to follow, I do not think the decline is done.
Geithner speaks? big deal. The COVER UP continues.
Tuesday, April 21, 2009Los Angeles Times
In the first major disclosure of corruption in the $750-billion financial bailout program, federal investigators said Monday they have opened 20 criminal probes into possible securities fraud, tax violations, insider trading and other crimes.The cases represent only the first wave of investigations, and the total fraud could ultimately reach into the tens of billions of dollars, according to Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general overseeing the bailout program.The disclosures reinforce fears that the hastily designed and rapidly changing bailout program run by the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve is going to carry a heavy price of fraud against taxpayers -- even as questions grow about its ability to stabilize the nation's financial system.
Barofsky said the complex nature of the bailout program makes it "inherently vulnerable to fraud, waste and abuse, including significant issues relating to conflicts of interest facing fund managers, collusion between participants, and vulnerabilities to money laundering."The report said little about who is under investigation and how the fraudulent schemes work, but investigators are already on alert for a long list of potential scams. Such schemes could include obtaining bailout money under false pretenses, bilking the government with phony mortgage modifications, and cheating on taxes with fraudulent filings.
Former Bank Regulator Wm Black was interviewed on PBS recently, he says the reason Bank execs have not been replaced is if they did an honest man might try to get to bottom of the issues, abuses and they DON’T WANT THAT!
WHY did $12 B go thought AIG directly to Goldman Sachs? And on top of that GS had a huge SHORT on AIG and got paid for that too!?
How can the banks be reporting “better than expected results recently” prompting CNBC clowns and ADM officials to quip,,,,,” the worse may be over, proof its getting better”
What they forgot to tell people was an NEW accounting change for GS took DEC figures (and they were bad) off the reporting qtr. And now the banks are free to mark their holdings to a value they see fit vs Mark to Mkt. WHY would FASB do away with mark to market acct? Because it would show most banks INSOLVANT as we speak.
NO oversight? Of a TRILLION $$$?? Who is that stupid? OH our elected officials. DIDN’T READ THE DAMN BILL? Who is that stupid or lazy? OH our elected officials.
If the American public doesn’t wake up now when will they and get mad?
Monday, April 20, 2009
But the bank also took a hefty $13.4 billion provision for loan losses and its shares fell 55 cents, or 5.2 percent, to $10.05 in premarket trading.
The Charlotte, N.C.-based company earned $2.81 billion after paying preferred dividends, or 44 cents per share, compared with a profit of $1.02 billion, 23 cents per share, in the year ago period. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected profit of 4 cents per share.
The higher-than-expected earnings could take some pressure off Chief Executive Ken Lewis who has faced calls from some shareholders to either give up his job as chairman or be ousted.
*good thing mark to mkt is gone.....wow cant beleive a profit.......hmm guess profits arent what they used to be
* Large Corporate Leasing Company (whisper) is going to downsize here......I thought idea was to loosen lending....what gives
Thursday, April 16, 2009
Last Update: 16-Apr-09 08:53 ET
Expectations for further glimmers of hope on the housing front took a hit this morning. The March housing data were not pretty.
Starts dropped 10.8% to a 510,000 annual rate from 572,000 in February. The level is not as low as the 488,000 dismal January number, but still the second lowest of this cycle.
The March level is well below expectations of about a 540,000 level and below the three-month average of 539,000 the three prior months.
Housing permits gave no indication of an imminent upturn. Permits fell 9.0% to a 513,000 annual rate. This is the lowest level of the current cycle and below the 547,000 average of the three prior months.
There is no reason not to take the data at face value as an indication that housing remains in a deep slump and that sporadic signs of stabilization have to be viewed with caution.
The second largest mall owner in the U.S. files for bankruptcy protection. » More than 200 malls
Suicide bomber kills 16 and wounds 50 at base in western Iraq we wont leave as scheduled.
Number of child abuse cases surge as U.S. economy flounders fabric of society crumbling
New jobless claims fall to 610,000; continuing claims hit 6 million good news bad or bad news bad news
BUT I suspect TRADING PROFITS (rally) have led to JPM earnings "surprise"....off we go
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
The Fed's latest survey of business conditions nationwide found five of its 12 regional banks reporting a moderation in the pace of the economic decline.
Several regions "saw signs that activity in some sectors was stabilizing at a low level ... (but) overall economic activity contracted further or remained weak," the Fed said.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Prices had peeked out of my downtrend channel.....but now have fallen back into that channel.
CNBC and friends continue to trot out the BOTTOM CALLERS...............it ain't gonna be that easy folks......this is the mutha of all bear markets, IMHO
Let's see where prices find footing.....8,000 on DOW seems less important as prices bob up and below.
Saturday, April 11, 2009
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Absolutely.
BILL MOYERS: You are.
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Absolutely, because they are scared to death. All right? They're scared to death of a collapse. They're afraid that if they admit the truth, that many of the large banks are insolvent. They think Americans are a bunch of cowards, and that we'll run screaming to the exits. And we won't rely on deposit insurance. And, by the way, you can rely on deposit insurance. And it's foolishness. All right? Now, it may be worse than that. You can impute more cynical motives. But I think they are sincerely just panicked about, "We just can't let the big banks fail." That's wrong.
BILL MOYERS: But what might happen, at this point, if in fact they keep from us the true health of the banks?
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Well, then the banks will, as they did in Japan, either stay enormously weak, or Treasury will be forced to increasingly absurd giveaways of taxpayer money. We've seen how horrific AIG -- and remember, they kept secrets from everyone.
BILL MOYERS: A.I.G. did?
WILLIAM K. BLACK: What we're doing with -- no, Treasury and both administrations. The Bush administration and now the Obama administration kept secret from us what was being done with AIG. AIG was being used secretly to bail out favored banks like UBS and like Goldman Sachs. Secretary Paulson's firm, that he had come from being CEO. It got the largest amount of money. $12.9 billion. And they didn't want us to know that. And it was only Congressional pressure, and not Congressional pressure, by the way, on Geithner, but Congressional pressure on AIG.
Where Congress said, "We will not give you a single penny more unless we know who received the money." And, you know, when he was Treasury Secretary, Paulson created a recommendation group to tell Treasury what they ought to do with AIG. And he put Goldman Sachs on it.
BILL MOYERS: Even though Goldman Sachs had a big vested stake.
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Massive stake. And even though he had just been CEO of Goldman Sachs before becoming Treasury Secretary. Now, in most stages in American history, that would be a scandal of such proportions that he wouldn't be allowed in civilized society.
BILL MOYERS: Yeah, like a conflict of interest, it seems.
WILLIAM K. BLACK: Massive conflict of interests.
FRIENDS....TAKE IT ALL IN.....THIS IS YOUR FORUM TO DISCUSS THE NOST HISTORIC CRISIS IN OUR LIFETIMES....THOSE IN CHARGE WERE THE SAME ONES THERE AS IT WAS HAPPENING>>>>THERE IS TRUTH AND THERE IS SMOKE.....THE TRUTH WILL SET YOU FREE AND MAKE YOU MAD!!!!!!!!
TEA PARTIES coming up......time to stand up and "we're not going to take this anymore" or will things never change?
A BIG RIGGED PONZI SCHEME NOTHING MORE! I'll keep talking about it, I'll keep trying to keep you safe.
HAS THE MKT BOTTOMED? I personally don't think so, nimble traders DO trade the market so off huge oversold 6500 print...if no collapse there, a worthwhile play....maybe some companies have put their lows in....some countries may outperform, the US isn't only investment vehicle.
MOST LOWS get tested.......looking for maybe 2nd mouse.
From DYLAN RATIGAN INTERVIEW
NEW BULL MARKET...OR SUCKERS' RALLY?
Blodget: Last question. You've been right in the middle of this meltdown day after day, interviewing the smartest people, etc. So is this a new bull market, or is this another suckers' rally?
Ratigan: Suckers' rally. No question. That's not an indictment of the judgement of the market. That's just my perception of the ability of the banks to function in a timely fashion, the ability to create meaningful amounts of jobs in the immediate future, and the as-yet unrecognized meaningful losses to come in commercial real-estate and other asset classes... We've gone through a transition where things were getting bad in a freefall, and now they're just getting slowly worse. So it's a transition from jumping out a plane without a parachute, and now, after a year of free-fall, we've pulled the parachute, which feels a hell of a lot better than the freefall... I think we're dealing with a problem that has a few years in it, not a few months.
Friday, April 10, 2009
The avg JOE is NOT buying.....he is struggling, looking to PULL OUT IRA MONIES to survive and to which would or could put enormous pressure on stock prices as this before had not been done in ANY meaningful manner.....but I think drawing out retirement funds even if as loan to self is escallating in a big way....I have seen it from those in my own company who have inquired to do so.
The greatest credit/debt bubble of ALL TIMES as part of the K wave, most assuredly has burst and I think once we begin the process of credit contraction, intervention in this cycle will be all but impossible.
If the gov is not knowing where ALL the money is flowing, it is safe to expect a portion is going directly into the stock class. HOW DID WFC achieve "RECORD QTR EARNINGS?"
No improvment on the job front, how is it that the "little people" will now run out and spend it up again and purchase homes/debt on top of it all?
Is the FED/GOV setting us up for a now greater bull mkt the world has ever seen, or an implosion of the likes non has ever witnessed. With world demand drying up...US imports collapsing....is it odd car sales in China hit a record?
DID the recent suspension of mark to market acct, further dilute efforts to deal with the pain and confuse the issue of realizing the losses, the values and exactly what the banks hold and their ability to lend? IS there a line at the bank doors for this money?
AS we try to regain our balance from the real estate collapse.....right around the corner is commercial real estate collapse......I wonder if mkt will rally into end of summer.....then realize they got jobbed.Does anyone expect a V shaped recovery here....so far that is what it is....
My good buddy MATTY'S reply, one of the very smart knowledgable people out there.
>>So think of the average hourly union or laborer or person at your work….think how they must be pinched…when you play that out you realize that the BUBBLEVISION people are fucking clueless.
· Unemployment will continue to rise and stay high….many corporations like CAT will not blindly just bring back workers…we will do it more efficiently and smartly with less labor. Shit CAT Joliet still releasing hourly and management Operations headcount…another 26 yesterday and 140 more by mid-May…I expect unemployment to peak at 11-12% with a new floor at 6-7% The days of 5% or under in my humble opinion are GONE. Small businesses will be slow to hire back until they see the evidence it is for real…with a potential for 1% growth average for 3-4 years we will as a nation scrape the bottom and flatline and many will still feel it is a recession albeit we will be growing.
· I believe many will use 401K money to get them through tough times….with over 55% of people in “THE MARKET” they will use any bounce for an opp to regain some money and pull it out. The average American 401K balance is sub $60,000!!!! So who is really RICH HERE??? With an older society and many boomers retiring and devastated over the past 9 months in “THE MARKET” you think they are going to keep their money in “THE MARKET”???
· I no doubt believe that the GOVT is goosing the market…they need to change psychology in a major way and if the DOW was in the 6,000’s you think people would want to go and do anything? The human psyche is BIG IN THIS GAME OF “THE MARKET”; but I believe Russell is correct in that no matter what the government does, the BEAR WILL RUN ITS COURSE IN DUE TIME UNTIL IT HAS KILLED EVERY SHEEPLE OUT THERE.
· This is a traders market for at least 2014….until the market bottoms for good…..INVESTING IS DONE.
· I am really pissed about Obama….this was not the CHANGE I thought and TIMMY G and the CLINTONISTAS in the ECONOMIC area are fleecing the little guy again. THE STRESS TEST IS BS…STRESS TEST THIS! THE BANKS ARE STILL INSOLVENT AND MARK TO MARKET JUST KEEPS THE “ZOMBIE BANKS” ALIVE JUST LIKE IN JAPAN. ADDITIONALLY THE PPIP IS JUST ANOTHER WAY TO “DA BOYZ” TO USE LEVERAGE (JUST WHAT WE DON”T NEED), TAKE UNECESSARY RISK AND TRANSFER IT TO YOU AND ME WHO PAY THE TAXES.
· GET GOLD, GET A GUN, and STOCK FOOD UP…I AM NOT BEING DOOM AND GLOOM HERE…THINGS WILL GET WORSE AND THINGS WILL GET REALLY SCREWY OUT THERE….with the ability to protect your family, have eats when there are disruptions and have bullion to protect your portfolio, I believe you will be able to survive it…we are only in the 1st third of this….2010-2013 will make your head spin in my estimation.<<
My ending comments
This is a wonderful TADERS MKT, onemust be able to separate personal experience and emotions to do well…..….…….preserving your stash is OK too.
I mean WHY SCREW the saver, I am a natural saver…..we get nada…..I also hated Bush, but don’t care for direction O is taking us…..take care buddy. This is the 1st REAL rally this bear…..I don’t know where it ends, but do feel 2009 shows us another new low….
Wednesday, April 08, 2009
Other huge winners I had tracked SNDK, HNI, WFMI, SSO…..this rally could potentially last 4-6 months…. The moves in some of the stocks seem not likely to see those prices again…..and yet if all we had to do is print money for prosperity….why EVER have downturn?
Thursday, April 02, 2009
Consumer loan delinquencies rise in 4th quarter- AP
Rite Aid 4Q loss almost doubles due to large writedown- AP
World markets surge as US data boost recovery hope
PRIOR FACT ORDERS REVISED DOWN FROM -1.9 to -3.5 that’s puts the AMAZING 1.8% “surprise” in perspective.
World markets are SURGING......huge bear mkt rally continues..approaching 90% plus up volume, so it is what it is.....the road back down when begins will be sickly.....
I will be out of town til next Wed, all take care......bounce from lows WAS worth playing though with tight stops...... I willl reasess position when I return
Of note is the UYG (long financials) not rallied above 50 EMA yet today....and BDI (baltic dry index) has turned DOWN again, shows NO p/U to speak of or nor does it hint it even has a Sharks sense of smell of a new bull or otherwise.