Tuesday, June 30, 2009


Not much to say really. More of the same, putrid volume, trading range bound until it isn't. SO many write of the Chinese miracle, yeah who are they selling to themselves? And 1/2 their stim money went right into real estate and stock speculation, gee that sounds healthy.

A lot of things could collapse and all at once. In a manipulated market, with GS running amock, with promised transparency apparently not so transparent......in the SHORT TERM anything is possible, in the end nothing will stop reversion to the mean. And this rally doesn't look like ANY rally from ANY bear mkt low.



NEW YORK – There is a clear trend home prices declines are moderating — another sign the beleaguered housing market is stabilizing, according to data released Tuesday.

While the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of 20 major cities tumbled by 18.1 percent, it marked the third straight month the decline was not a record. And yearly losses in 13 metros improved compared to March.

"The stock market bottomed in March and measures of consumer confidence have turned upward. This report shows that these better spirits are also appearing in the housing market," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee.

*Folks, the shits STILL declining, the declines now are not setting records, let's ALL jump for joy.

And ALL that MBS paper out there and in the vaults of the BANKS.....wont take this data into account as mark to market value was discontinued.



Price on the SPX rose to exactly 930.01 this morning. This is RIGHT in the zone I highlighted on this AM chart as potential right shoulder, the action immeidately after speaks for itself.

TOO early to draw too much, but it again shows the value of charting and TA and we await the break of the neckline or this shoulder for clues as to near term direction.



* as always CLICK to enlarge chart



"There is probably not much downside to the stock now. Investors would be making a mistake at this stage, particularly given all the negativity towards the company, to make a big bet against GE," Snyder said.

Still, some big investors appear to be fed up. According to figures from FactSet Research, Bill Miller's Legg Mason Value Trust sold its entire position in GE during the first quarter. So did other well-known funds such as the Federated Kaufmann fund and Pioneer fund.

GE will face a crucial test when it reports its second-quarter results July 17. If the worst really is over and Immelt's reset has in fact begun, investors will want to see proof of that.
Currently, analysts are skeptical. They are forecasting that total sales for GE will be down 10% from a year ago and that earnings per share will plunge 54%.

And another fund manager who still owns the stock said he's running out of patience.
"People are tired of the GE Capital unit. It would behoove the company to extricate themselves of most of it somehow," said James McGlynn, manager of the Calvert Large Cap Value fund. "GE was designed for the 1990s, not this century. The company is just too big to manage"

*Stocks set to open flat according to futures to slightly up. We still have SPX 930 as resistance and potential right shoulder. WE find the rally continue to move up on below avg volume and little investor enthusiasm....a miracle right?

IF bear markets only END when they make their final lows, and if the history of data we have suggest we have NOT started a NEW bull market and this rally is 4 months old.....I will continue to argue the ODDS for me anyway say sit tight for now, I remain IN CASH......I'm not trying to PICK a bottom, but if I have sense it isn't in I dont want to ride down to it either. I can be wrong, wish I was wrong, but dont think Im wrong.


Monday, June 29, 2009


Not much to tell. Little buying enthusiasm today, more withdrawl of sellers and the market drifted higher near that right shoulder we talked about. Volume was well below 30 day moving average.

End of month markup madness is about over. Madoff gets 150 years, victims get life, life w/o savings.



SEVERELY Bearish Treasury Development
From Marketwatch:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Dresdner Kleinwort Securities has withdrawn from the Federal Reserve's primary U.S. government security dealers, the U.S. central bank said Friday.
The change is net neutral in terms of numbers as a new dealer just came online, but in general this is a major net negative for the Treasury market.
Why? Because being a primary dealer is, in general a license to print money. You get to field customer orders for Treasuries and make your spread, and you have a privileged trading position with The Fed.
There's only one fly in the ointment, and that is that the position comes with a requirement that you bid. This is distinct from most other nations where no such system exists, and essentially guarantees that there can never be a "failed" Treasury auction.
There was no reason cited for the withdrawal but one can surmise that the issue is that they're stuffed to the gills with Treasuries and are finding it difficult or impossible to earn their spread, think there is a material safety risk in their participation (e.g. getting stuck long with a deteriorating position), or both.
Either way there is no possible means to read this as bullish. While the issue may be with their liquidity demands and thus not reflect severely on the Treasury market with the issuance that has gone on this year and will for the foreseeable future I wouldn't take that bet.
The "Chosen" or "Protected" dealers will of course never withdraw but if the changes made to reporting of indirect bid are in fact concealing deteriorating demand and these folks have detected a potential problem in the offing we are fixing to get a severe spanking in our government debt issuance in the near future.

Next post after market close by around 6 PM



SHANGHAI (AP) -- China risks frittering away its stimulus spending on speculation in stocks and real estate, reports said Monday, citing economists who say surging bank loans risk inflating risky asset bubbles.
The comments by prominent economists came as Shanghai's benchmark Composite Index hit another high for the year, gaining 1.6 percent, or 47.10 points, to 2,975.31. The index has gained more than 60 percent since the beginning of the year.

While recent gains in shares and property prices are a welcome respite for investors, putting funds meant for stimulus projects into speculative investments could undermine the government's effort to boost growth and reduce the economy's heavy reliance on exports.

About 20 percent of bank lending is going into stock speculation, and another 30 percent or so is going into the property market, state-run newspapers cited Wei Jianing, an economist with a Cabinet-level think tank, as saying.

China's economic planners have urged banks to issue loans to support the government's 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program, aimed at protecting the economy from the global slowdown by pumping money into spending on building airports and other public works.

Wei and other economists told a conference in Beijing that the huge flow of money into shares and property could be fueling risky, unsustainable price increases, China Business News and other reports said


The unemployed figures may be understated, if you include those with forced furloughs, those taking hour reductions rather than layoffs, many working 4 day workweeks, and those seeking full time empoyment forced to accept part time positions, there is a TON more slack in the employment arena than is seen thru BLS stats. This additional SLACK may make this Recession more dubious, more difficult and very likely could turn into a JOBLESS RECOVERY.

The FED and GOV stand ready and have been trying to reinflate the credit bubble and in so doing are creating an even bigger hazzard, a debt bubble of historic proportions where the GOV needs nearly $2T of bond issuance to foreignors to fund operations...$100B-$200B every month with NO end in sight. The private sector economy has been ravaged, and replaced by a gov fed one.

MBS issuance no longer comes from various banks and financial firms, the only player since THEY sullied the mortgage backed security market is the FED. With the FED expansing their balance sheet by nearly $1.5T or more.....of DUBIOUS quality.

We have given away our econmy of manufacturing and innovation for one of consumption and debt reliance, and shipped our dollars overseas and helped build our competitors in world economy. NOW, they OWN us.

ANY pronouncement from FED or GOV officials, using BLS or other GOV gathered data should be looked at with a jaundiced eye, and a knowing we have been SOLD OUT.

How can the world be run by a consortium of central bankers whose only purpose for existing is to make a profit? The POWER to print money is the power to control the world finances and is not in the hands of the governments nor the people they serve.

The BEAR MKT will sort this out, as the shit hits the fan, one must try to SURVIVE this period, reduce or eliminate debt, raise cash, and pray!


Sunday, June 28, 2009

Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Report

It is Economic complete text. (Mr Noland is one of the most intellectual, fact driven writers of our time, IMHO)

"One of the challenges of analyzing Bubbles is appreciating that powerful forces inherently arise to perpetuate them longer than one would have initially believed analytically probable. The tech Bubble went to incredible extremes – and then “doubled.” Ditto for the mortgage/Wall Street finance Bubble. As an analyst, however, I’ve got to assume that the marketplace is today much keener to the problematic nature of Ponzi Finance Dynamics.

The key to the rapid implosion of the mortgage/Wall Street Bubble was the combination of its unwieldy scope and the disappearance of the GSE “backstop bid.” At $2.0 TN, arguably we’ve quickly reached ample “scope” in the market for “federal” obligations. As for the “backstop bid,” foreign central banks have for some years now been massive buyers of Treasuries and agencies during periods of unwieldy global dollar flows. And with more comments out of China today, there is even greater support for the view that foreign appetite for our debt instruments is waning in the face of the unprecedented inflation in their quantity. Moreover, market perceptions have Treasuries as bulletproof.

I know better than to try to predict the timing of problems developing in the Treasury and currency markets. But I do see all the makings for the next problematic leg of this financial crisis. As I have written before, our nation’s predicament becomes much more problematic when perceptions turn against the Treasury/agency marketplace."

Friends, it's not if but when this BOND/TREASURY BUBBLE bursts, could be the mother of all bubbles.



Friend Matty sent this to me, good old GS of course.


WEEKDEND CHART "Transporting to where?" Or CAVEAT EMPTOR?

*click to enlarge chart.
Dow theory relies on Trans and Dow complimenting each other and confirming any significant move. The Transports have vaulted from the lows but couldn't better 2009 highs recently and has shown sigificant weakness vs the Dow or SPX (500 top companies).
You can also see how the DECLINING 200 EMA (exponential moving avg...takes into account price action close to end than beginning of time period) has acted as repellant to the advance.
The 50 EMA not shown here has crossed UP on some of the indexes, causing a stir in some professing NEW BULL MKT. My own studies show that when this occurs in a bear mkt, with the 200 EMA still declining, is usally near the END of the rally. (makes sense as it takes strong action to bend up the 50 EMA)
The current rally is now 4 months old.
What we do know is in the early stages of bull markets you get a SWIFT expansion in buying intetrest, volume and breadth. After MArch came and went, L stats show this enthusiasm has been waning as at a rapid pace throwing us near all the way BACK to when the rally began!
Selling aggressiveness has pulled back but it is now only 8 pts away from signalling heavy defensive postures would be prudent.
It is my opinion that STIMULUS money (when all else fails) has been making its way from the chosen 10 or so, into the stock market. There has been some questionable action near the END of days and IN FRONT of FED news or actions....seemingly coming out of nowhere. And the SEC is not even a bit interested in finding out if any INSIDER TRADING is going on. SO how else can a market go UP, without buyers en masse?
With such lithe buying interest, if SELLERS should get a pair, the market could turn tail IN A HURRY.
We also know, as obvious as it may sound, that BEAR MARKETS do NOT END until they make their final low. If the action of the last 3 months of the BUYERS stepping away uncharacteristic of ANY PREVIOUS NEW BULL MKT, then I can only deduce that the probabilities exist in favor of a bear market alive and well, and its final destination LOWS somewhere ahead of us.
And if nothing less, a TEST of the prvious low is coming, all IMHO of course.
Savings rate has been rising, and this may not change overnight, this behavior from consumers we need to spend.
There is a survey called the "Business Roundtable" where ONLY CEO'S are polled, 51% expected LOWER CAPITAL INVESTMENTS (fuel of recovery) and 49% expected REDUCTION IN PAYROLLS
So if market is forward looking, is it pulling wool over our eyes? Or this is phrase just BS hargon?
FED wont tell us or doesnt know where all the $ billions we gave them went? So we should feel comfortable this FOR PROFIT caldron of thieves has our back?
Lastly, with my hunches the top is in this relief rally in an ongoing BEAR MKT, We have end of quarter marking up so the henchmen doofuses in charge of your money can get their bonuses and look good....June is quickly coming to a close.
We are in the "bad 6 months of the market" sell in May go away.
In the next few weeks the monthly unempoyment numbers will be coming out, with last weeks "SUPRISE" 627,000 new claims, and we see with our own 2 eyes.......isn't the unemployment rate going to rise?
It currently rests in a believe it or not 9.4% and 6.74 Million jobs lost!!!! Are we going to create MILLIONS of jobs with the STIMULUS? GREEN JOBS? JOBS that and the industry cannot survive on its OWN accord without Government SUBSIDIZING. WILL it just shift jobs from oil to solar panels and such?
Should everybody do the right thing and have our gov tell us what kind of car to buy?
WILL it be around this report, a number so onerous, that any smoke screen put out, any illusion that the economy HAS turned the corner will be smacked in the face?
And from that point do we make our way to that MArch low around the time most known for ugly market performance (OCT) and market lows too.
This pretty much drains my brain for this weekend. traffic to my blog has most definately nearly doubled the avg of just a few months ago, I may not SEE you (cept Google analytics) but I write for you.

Jobless claims

Saturday, June 27, 2009

Climate bill may spur energy revolution


ap article http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090627/ap_on_an/us_climate_bill_future_analysis

>>What would the country look like a decade from now if the House-passed bill — or, more likely, a water-down version — were to become the law of the land?
"It will open the door to a clean energy economy and a better future for America," President Barack Obama said Saturday.<<

This is the great unknown, some think this IS the future, others think last nail in coffin, so this is a more optimistic opinion I wanted to share.


OT FRANK ZAPPA's "MUFFIN MAN" Most Incredable!


Personal income from wages and salaries were down $12 billion last month. So how did income show an increase ? A large increase in "government benefits" and a decline in taxes accounted for the gain. The increase was the effect from the recent stimulus package, not the result of a recovering economy.
On the chart above we are coming from levels well below 2001 bear.
We are getting end of quarter money manager goosing in attempt to make their performance look better. This will end next week.
We had rebalancing of the Russel index which causing some buying and selling.
The Head and shoulders pattern I showed a few days ago is still a possibility, the market has stayed under 930 SPX, a break of 888 and hold may seal it.
Have great weekend, listen to Thriller and good bye FArah

Friday, June 26, 2009


EXCLUSIVE: President Obama Defends Right to Choose Best Care
In ABC News Health Care Forum, President Answers Questions About Reform
June 24, 2009—
President Obama struggled to explain today whether his health care reform proposals would force normal Americans to make sacrifices that wealthier, more powerful people -- like the president himself -- wouldn't face.
The probing questions came from two skeptical neurologists during ABC News' special on health care reform, "Questions for the President: Prescription for America," anchored from the White House by Diane Sawyer and Charles Gibson.
Dr. Orrin Devinsky, a neurologist and researcher at the New York University Langone Medical Center, said that elites often propose health care solutions that limit options for the general public, secure in the knowledge that if they or their loves ones get sick, they will be able to afford the best care available, even if it's not provided by insurance.
Devinsky asked the president pointedly if he would be willing to promise that he wouldn't seek such extraordinary help for his wife or daughters if they became sick and the public plan he's proposing limited the tests or treatment they can get.
The president refused to make such a pledge, though he allowed that if "it's my family member, if it's my wife, if it's my children, if it's my grandmother, I always want them to get the very best care.
"There's a whole bunch of care that's being provided that every study, that every bit of evidence that we have indicates may not be making us healthier," he said.
Gibson interjected that often patients don't know what will work until they get every test they can.
"Oftentimes we know what makes sense and what doesn't," the president responded, making a push for evidence-based medicine.
Gibson asked the president if it doesn't make sense to decide what the limitations will be on options in any health care reform proposal before voting on it.
"That's what people are afraid of," Gibson said.
The president said he understood the American people "know they're living with the devil, but the devil they know instead of the devil they don't."
© 2009 ABC News Internet Ventures


WASHINGTON – House Democrats narrowly won a key test vote Friday and pushed for passage of sweeping legislation designed to combat global warming and usher in a new era of cleaner energy. Republicans said the bill included the largest tax increase in American history.
The vote was 217-205 to advance the White House-backed legislation toward a final roll call expected within hours. Thirty Democrats defected, a reflection of the controversy the bill sparked.
The legislation would impose first-ever limits on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas pollution from power plants, factories and refineries. It also would force a shift from coal and other fossil fuels to renewable and more efficient forms of energy. Supporters and opponents agreed the result would be higher energy costs, but disagreed widely on how much more consumers would pay.

*An historic vote on a bill nobody read, some 1200 pages, and I know some things need attending, but this is a POS bill, we'll all bend over...tax hikes here they come....what happens when a wrong idea comes along at the wrong time?

additional Chicago tribune commentary



Nike Posts Earnings Beat, Orders Decline good news bad news?

We got a glass that doesn't even have any water in it!

Personal spending up 1.4% !! Does this make ANY sense to you????

With manipulation allowed, Fed officials lie under oath...."I don't remember" "No I never told anyone to put pressure on BAC...." SPX futures buying coming out of nowhere to goose market, and in front of news....

Folks, the big issue is still housing IMHO and STILL home prices are FALLING. IF THAT IS TRUE.....what does that do to ALL that fantastic mortgage paper out there the banks etc hold and have been told you DONT have to MARK to MARKET VALUE anymore...?

Play for a rally....but I think the sand in the hour glass is running out....even IF one more rally zutz in it, the market is on borrowed time IMHO. Look at action near SPX 930 to see if that right shoulder is going to form....950 ish the highs


Thursday, June 25, 2009


There is potential Head and Shoulders forming, I had been watching and my buddy SSK had emailed about today. Right shoulder is near 930 ish.
What this means, if this forms and then prices go below neckline, good chance prices fall to near 800 (subtract distance from neckline to head from neckline breach)
It is hard to tell anything from the action, when manipulation is the rule of the day. Todays rally came on putrid slow volume.
I don't know if it's a one day wonder. I just know we are still waiting for a real recovery and the more they do to facilitate one the longer it may take.
I think the rally is better served letting go the real laggards in a portfolio, build some cash. I am 100% cash at this time.
Smart enough not to short the market here, and around usually jiggy FED meeting, timing for this anyway is rather difficult.
I know some calls recently to do just that and were stopped out with loss in those short position.
The avg investor should either be IN during a BULL MARKET or OUT during a BEAR market IMHO. Buying dips in a bull, usually pays off.
1980-2000 BULL, that is what most remember. FED induced recovery in 2002-2003 gave us a 2003-2007 Bull....NOW BEAR AGAIN....same mechanisms in 2003, goosing economy, real estate.....cannot work again but OH they try.
What a bleeped up mess this is folks, not a voice of reason in adm or congress to sort this out


http://market-ticker.denninger.net/ Karl Denninger on market manipulation

>>>......."That's last night.
Over 12,000 contracts traded in two five-minute periods, over 10,000 right up on the time of that spike.

There was no news of any sort related to the US markets on the wire last night. Zero. None. I and many others were wondering what the heck caused that.

This morning, the buying began in earnest at 8:30 Central, and then again at 10:00 Eastern - one hour in front of the "announcement", again on heavy volume".<<<

One of my readers said "don't fight the FED" in a way he's right, but in the case laid out on KD's site, insiders are getting LEAKED ILLEGAL INFO BEFORE THE REST OF US and are profiteering from it.

KD asks "where are the police?"

If you think it's WIERD that we get TRILPE DIGIT gains in light on no bully news and a horrid new claims number......no it's not wierd, it's manipulation.....and it's done in the futures market, and I know my buddy SSK saw it.

They are JAMMING down our throats this cap and spend shit. A FRAKENSTEIN bill so PUTRID you can smell it from here, now 1200 fing pages long....Obamma is selling it like Bush did the Patriot Act......this bill is an Obamanation to sound judgement and will RAISE the cost of energy for all of us and it will KILL what is left of the economy.

WTF is there to do for the avg Jill and Joe.........man this heats me up. How can the insiders get away of making trades on info we dont get, leaked out, nobody cares.

Yet legit businesses can't get loans. It's all screwed up



At 8:30 we get unemployment for the week, 600,000 is expected. Here for many reasons we could can a LOWER than expected number, because we NEED a lower than expecetd number.

Credit cards tighten limits
Banks are lowering limits on people with good jobs, low balances, and solid payment histories.
Folks this is another sign of CREDIT CONTRACTION and as I have suggested beforem you can't grow the economy this way and another sign of what happens during Kondratief Winter. We may be witnessing an economic depression. DATA: Unemployment came in WORSE than expected at 625,000 jobs....until we actually turn this trend of losing jobs to creating jobs, how can anything stabilize? futures turned RED on this announcement.

The amount of job losses should begin to SLOW, mainly because SO MANY have ALREADY been lost. This phenom will be HYPED AD NAUSEUM by the fIN press as more SIGNS of a recovery.

If we only lost 300,000 jobs is that good news? We need to CREATE JOBS MAN!!! If a pot is boiling but it begins to boil MORE SLOWLY, it's still boiling!

That idiot ASS Barney Frank, what an embarassment to mankind, is now asking FREDDIE and FANNY to EASE credit requirements!!! OMG

Folks, a recovery WILL come, MAYBE worst is over maybe not....for now. But when Warren BUffet says he sees NADA...WE GOT NADA, his businesses span the most conservative , a full spectrum of companies from flooring, to paint and carpet.....etc.

There is a better than 50/50 chance the TOP of the MArch rally is in. ANY serious pick up in selling intensity will have little BUYERS to slow down the decline, because most have already exited.

I told you I locked in some serious gains in 2 of my accounts 2 weeks ago right at the highs. I am going to manage my accounts until a NEW BULL MKT is signalled.

I use no gimmicks. I'll make no false claims. Fact is I have been blessed, lucky and maybe fortuitive enough to AVOID the last 2 Bear Markets. This I can do with tried and true technical analysis.

When you can't always believe the BS data, or BLS data, or the FIN media like CNBC is like a turtle w/o its shell. WHEN IT SEEMS SO CONFUSING.......the votes of millions and millions of shares may be the only answer to what is unfolding.

I read until Im blue in the face, but I NEVER take my eyes away from my charts.

MAYBE a little breather from lower prices, volume has been tepid. I have been arguing with some savvy friends, a few think another run at SPX 950 is possible, I have disagreed.....as long as I know a bear market is still in effect, the mistakes will be to the downside.

Are we in a OnCE in a lifetime period of pain? WATCH the short video below about the FEDERAL RESERVE and you will no longer be ignorant and ill informed as to WHAT THEY ARE!


Wednesday, June 24, 2009


I have a bridge in London I want to sell you, the federal reserve wants you to think they are on OUR side , all dealings like with Bank Of America were nothing but in everyones best interest.

If you think it sounds like a good idea to print money out of thin air, spend $1Trillion a year more than you bring in, send money to the banks thru Fed Reserve and Treasury and no one can account for where it went.

Even Ron paul isnt yelling loud enough, WE BEEN SCAMMED. WHO is fighting for the American people? Obamma? hardly....did Bush? yeah right! We got transparency? sure we do......I can see a politican a mile away... we got us a real pro in there now....legacy....."I spent 10 X more than Bush nahhhhhh" Cap and trade, what is that BS? Break the bank with healthcare reform? Stimulate who, you stimulated?

Smart man becomes a plumber..."everyone gotta flush!"

NO official sell signal yet, but my friends, the dam is going to break, the bank already has!

dID YOU READ THE COMMENTS from the FEd minutes? how more money is going into mortgage debt, and treasuries?

I am so sick of what has been happening I can hardly write about it anymore.




Release Date: June 24, 2009
For immediate release

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the pace of economic contraction is slowing. Conditions in financial markets have generally improved in recent months. Household spending has shown further signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, lower housing wealth, and tight credit.

Businesses are cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but appear to be making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.

The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year.

In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.


Buffett Tells CNBC US Economy Shows 'No Bounce'
Bloomberg - Erik Holm, Andrew Frye - ‎31 minutes ago‎
June 24 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said a recovery in the US economy will take time as he's not seeing signs of a rebound at his businesses spanning retailing, manufacturing and energy.
Buffett laments that US economy has "no bounce" guardian.co.uk
Buffett says he has trouble seeing 'green shoots' MarketWatch


The headlines
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- New orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods rose by a much stronger-than-expected 1.8% in May, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday, providing further evidence that the battered U.S. economy was finding its feet.

Is this really "evidence" ?

In one area of particular weakness, orders for motor vehicles and parts dropped 8.1% in May, the sharpest fall since August.
The Commerce Department said shipments of durable goods fell 2.1% in May, after falling 0.5% the month before.
This was the 10th straight decline in shipments, and the longest streak of consecutive monthly decreases since records began in 1992, the Commerce Department said.

In other words, this has fallen so far, that the increase they trumpet is coming from a horrific decline as shown in above chart.

Futures goosed, FED goosing, 2-7 day rally attempt after 2nd 90% downer....IMHO I am expecting a weak attempt then decline will continue.



>>March 9 was also the day Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) chief Vikram Pandit spurred the three-month-long rally in bank stocks by telling staff in a memo that Citi, then thought to be on its way to a possible government takeover, was profitable in the first two months of the year.
Though there is now widespread relief that a depression has been avoided, Guillen said he's still very worried.
"The administration seems to be getting distracted, and there's an awful lot left to do,"
he said. <<

Rally also got help when MARK TO MARKET by the GAO was dropped, allowing BANks to use OTHER measures to value their mortgage paper.

AFTER FED 2:15 expect a lot of volatility.


Tuesday, June 23, 2009


Market is teetering on reaquainting itself with reality, the vaunted FED meeting stand before it, some hanging on every sylable.

In the end does the economy have the ability to renew itself, to expand credit, foster fledgling businesses.

We have a gov goen amuck, first with BUSH now its on steroids, as we spend ourselves into oblivion.

WHO will rise up and speak for us, where is the sanity and sound policy which is needed? The mkt IMHO is telling us nowhere to be foudn.



STeve Saville article on gov policy now and then. Market wrap will follow sometime after 5 PM



*click to enlarge
As was case on way down, if the index in question cannot hold 50% of the previous bull gains, it is likely going down much further.
On way up,same should go, if the index here shown SPX, can regain and hold above the 50% of the points lost line, we could say would be strong indication bear is over, trend defined by 50% principle is bullish.
I don't think we need to wait that long, but can be a helpful longer term piece of puzzle


The 2nd 90% downside volume day we got yeaterday came just 6 days after the first one and is a further signal that something is terribly wrong.

These excessive selling days can be followed by a few days of rally, but I don't expect anything too jiggy.

We are in front of FED meeting and as usual the big poobah's will make their usual idiotic statements that get parced by the media for a single change in a word or phrase hoping that brings NEW LIGHT to the current market and economy.

The bear market rally was a good one, but if not the start of NEW BULL MKT, when they end, leaves behind a lot of unhappy people who got sucked in. Smart money more than likely have been distributing their shares to new bagholders, they win again.


Monday, June 22, 2009


click to enlarge. Comments as shown SPX rejected at 200 EMA soundly.
Sometimes, in a random world where order is seeked out, there is disorder. And today is perfect example, there has already been a strong move off the highs, many are waiting to short, and the top may have been put in week or so ago.

Is it NOT the job of a bear to dismay as many as possible? Not only have indexes given back the 200, but the 50 EMA as well, that IMHO may change things.

And many people (none of us) have been calling for another higher high, and some of us avg Joe’s have met that with skepticism.

IT was 2 weeks ago I ran a 200 EMA study and came away with the conclusion the odds were THE top was in and the market would turn Lower VERY soon. I gave specific reasons and detailed my point of views with the chart and stats incl L.

SO FAR sellers had NOT shown up to VERIFY the weakness, that this was a buyers strike so far. Today L buying power was almost back where it began in MArch
IMHO (jaded I guess) MY chart of the 2000-2003 bear study of action at the 200 EMA was as good as anything I have ever seen. When added to Trans avg non confirm, loss of buying power from L, the picture was pretty clear and my call of trouble ahead for idexes timely.

The market is always one of study and learning. The market IMHO is sending out a message loud and clear TURN OFF CNBC

can you BELIEVE THIS HEADLINE from yhoo

Top Stories
Stocks tumble on bleak outlook for world economy- AP
A surprisingly bleak forecast for the world economy sent stocks tumbling to their lowest level this month.
*I AM NOT SURPRISED! We got our 2nd 90% downside day today and it came within 30 days of last one, VERY good chance top is in and we could be headed to test the MARCH LOWS.Will we get some FED metting jiggyness? we'll see...something is still terribly wrong.
In 1930 total credit market debt as % of GDP was 265%. I read a few days ago it is now 375%. That is scarey as hell


http://charlesnenner.com/ if haven’t seen worth a listen when have chance about 6 minutes…..”sometimes there is no place to hide”

Likes GOLD shares, but not now, in month or 2. THings are unfolding as I have been talking about.


Friday, June 19, 2009


WMT (Walmart) stock has been acting badly since April, a proxy for consumer?

On the surface the market may not look like its doing much, but from the data I have compiled it feels, looks like topping action. When it breaks, and sellers re-emerge I fear a SEVERE correction will have begun.

More tomorrow by 12, This is all I have time for today, all take care.



Lukewarm Outlook from Research In Motion

No data in the AM, could be quiet trading day volume wise. A HORDE of CNBC "guests" paraded thru this AM with calls for "BE IN THE MARKET, LESS RISK TO BE LONG HERE......MARKET has discounted all"

AFter 40% bear gains....NOW is the time to get in? See you in the PM


Thursday, June 18, 2009


Todays buying interest could be said to be "anemic" and volume was LOWEST in the week. Where did the buying interest go?

Certainly some of the stimulus has hit road contruction and some of these companies are getting contracts and maybe hiring, spending some money. NOT enough to pull us out of this mire.

TOO many things going wrong and GOV getting TOO big, we already had promised MORE than we could deliver.

But in a society leaning toward socialism, this is what we will get. A more equal society? and one with a marked loss of living standards.

And if you think giving the FED more powers when it can't handle what it has is a good idea, I dont agree.

I think this is a topping pattern destined to break down HARD.....selling pressure from my subs which can be measured will be of great help.

JOB loss data at 605,000 was trumped by CNBC as a show it is moderating, we are nearer to recovery. Boy that's a wierd measurement.





A Kondratieff Winter is the correction of a credit expansion. During an inflationary credit expansion capital moves up the pyramid. During the deflationary credit contraction, or Kondratieff Winter, capital burrows down the pyramid to safety. This is why stock markets have been crashing as investors flee into T-Bills. Ultimately, investors ensconce themselves within a deflationary but invincible and immoveable golden forcefield.

Alan Greenspan understands the risk a Kondratieff Winter poses to central bankers as they are impotent against stopping it. On Nov 6, 2003 he said, “Indeed, the Federal Open Market Committee has judged that the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds that of a rise in inflation from its already low level.”

Now we got our PAY CZAR, we gonna increase FED controls and powers and add to that new GOV regulations on Wall Street and MAin Street Credit....to PROTECT YOU!

Wea re going to PROTECT YOU from nasty credit card companies......sure they are sneaky but do we want them to begin TIGHTENING?

K Winter is the opposite of SUMMER, hot expansion , no we get COLD CONTRACTION.....DEFLATIONARY CREDIT CONTRACTION.....HELOOOOOO how do we expand the economy if we CONTRACTING CREDIT?

Is the answer thru GOV spending? HOW is that STIM working? $500 checks going right to CONSUMPTION? NO to paying bills.

I am sorry folks, while I try to keep my blog going on one hand and offer myself to you, I have a business that is on the verge of being TAKEN OUT. WHY? might be several reasons, but I sell office furniture, and my Customers have near dissapeared, after 30 years I have seen a lot, I've never witnessed anything like this.

DO I deserve to go kaput? Honestly that is good question, I would say NO to that because of how we have run the business and what is causing this downturn.

The averages are now agreeing a TURN DOWN may be upon us. BUT we could also be testing the LOWER limits of this trading range.

We are still wondering if the SELLERS have awoken and I say not just yet, prices are falling by a marked reluctance to buying.

IF.....SELLERS awaken from slumber, and I think that would not mean buyers would also, prices could fall hard and quick.

Sure we've all had enough of this, but its over when its over.


Wednesday, June 17, 2009


S&P cited greater volatility in financial markets during credit cycles and tighter regulatory supervision as primary reasons for the ratings changes. The company also said the changes reflect its ongoing broad-ranging reassessment of industry risk for U.S. financial institutions.

Standard & Poor's lowered its ratings on the following:

Associated Banc Corp (ASBC), Astoria Financial (AF), BB&T Corp (BBT), Capital One Financial (COF), Carolina First Bank, Citizens Republic Bancorp (CRBC), Comerica (CMA), Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), First National Bank of Omaha, Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), KeyCorp (KEY), M&T Bank Corp (MTB), PNC Financial Services Group (PNC), Regions Financial (RF), Susquehanna Bancshares (SUSQ), Synovus Financial (SNV), U.S. Bancorp (USB), Valley National Bancorp (VLY), Webster Financial (WBS), Wells Fargo (WFC), Whitney Holding (WTNY), and Wilmington Trust (WL).


By JIM KUHNHENN, Associated Press Writer Jim Kuhnhenn,

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama is offering a broad-scale overhaul of the financial system, saying hard times struck largely because a post-Depression era business regulatory scheme couldn't keep up with an increasingly global economy.

In remarks readied for the unveiling of new rules to govern business, Obama attributed much of the country's current problem to "a cascade of mistakes and missed opportunities" which happened over several decades.

His plan would bestow vast new powers on the Federal Reserve, authorizing it to oversee the entire financial system. It also would create a new consumer protection agency to guard against the types of abuses that played a big role in the current crisis.

The president said in his prepared remarks that "a culture of irresponsibility took root from Wall Street to Washington to Main Street." <<<<<<

BE very afraid.....these idiots helped get us in this mess. ANOTHER CZAR maybe? Just what we need bigger, more inefficient government.

We have departments in place, they just NEED TO DO THEIR DAMN JOB.

FED doesn't see bubbles coming, emerging. FED keeps interest rates too low for too long creates Housing bubble. SO let's give them more powers so they can on top of not telling where the TRILLION $$ went and can screw us even more.


Tuesday, June 16, 2009


*click to enlarge

WHAT RECOVERY? Think about this when they HYPE the data and tell you "OH IT'S ON"


Monday, June 15, 2009




It may come back to my earlier suggestion that around the 200 EMA certain things are likely.. or become a higher degree of potential….and if playing the odds I didn’t see a LONG position here at the 200 EMA with the trannies not conforming, with the L stats as they were, with a 40% move SPX in books….with a BEAR mkt still in effect,,,,,don’t like those odds long….it’s all about probabilities IT and LT, maybe ST all about the charts…..for swing more things come into play….and none of this figures in ANY fundamental analysis.

SHOULD sellers come back in the force to negate the 1A buy….after all I said onus is on sellers….because we already know buyers have backed away 2 to Tango....and the markets internals will show us who is doing what.

It's all about keeping the odds and probabilities on our side. NO PM post will add to AM TUES comments on any L stats meaningful



AM DATA Empire State Manuf Index fell 9,4% in JUne vs May 4.4%.....excuse me is this PROOF of a recovery?

WHY WONT THE FED explain where the $100's of BILLIONS went?

Here are the headlines

Obama Financial Reforms Revealed- Reuters
Senior Obama administration officials on Monday said in a newspaper op-ed piece that a landmark financial regulation reform plan to be released this week will target capital requirements, securitization and other problem areas blamed for the global financial crisis.
IMF says worst not over for world economy- Reuters
Oil falls to near $71 as US dollar strengthens- AP
World stocks down as dollar rise hits commodities- AP

WALL STREET regulation doesn't sound like a market friendly set up. It is no secret here we find some weakness surrounding action at the 200 EMA's and prolonged reluctane of the Transports to confirm DOW move.

I have a band gig this PM, may not post until MUCH later or Ties AM take care


Sunday, June 14, 2009


WALLSTATS.COM will show you where lots of our tax dollars are going.

Until proven different we are in the TAIL END of a raucus bear market rally, where the S and P 500 has already banked a 40% rise off the lows, which sounds impressive and still leaves near 50% below the highs.

Have the pieces been put in place, that wil allow 2nd half meaningful growth and lead us OUT of Recession after what 18 months of pain and losses and be sustainable. Unfortuantely I don't believe so.

Until we have meaningful credit growth again and business investment and turn job losses in to job hirings, how can we be headed to economic revival?

There is a MAD scramble to fund debt, and it seems to me our very own GOVERNMENT is crowding US OUT!

Until the PRIVATE SECTOR is treated with respect and Obama outs aside his unsustainable expansion of Government and Gov funded programs, to which we can't even keep up with what is already promised......more pain ahead.


Friday, June 12, 2009


* As always click to enlarge cart.
SMH and COMPQ have similar moves and the 50 EMA has crossed above 200 EMA, as shown happened once during 2001 bear. Came after 911 selling abated.
One thing that is different here than if we had a trend change signal is the 200 EMA is still delcining....as is the case now, where both COMPQ (NAZ) and SMH (semi's) have done so.
Is the sideways mkt just consolidation of the MArch rally? in a bull almost always.....not so in a bear but going into OPEX FRI next week...anything goes.
Trannies still not confirming recent Dow for the move high.
Weekend update will be late SAT or SUnday, take care


Thursday, June 11, 2009


OIL $72 COPPER $2.42 yet we have a negative GDP and falling trucking tonnage. Gold near $1,000. Job losses holding near 600K level. COntinuing continue at record.

Commercial FOR LEASE signs popping up EVERYWHERE. BANKS WON'T LEND. MANY companies on the ropes with NO access to capital. Banks are not healthy and even WORSE if mark to market returns, now what is the rationale to the pricing of Bank assets? THEIR WORD?


PLANT and CAR DEALERSHIP closings, job losses probably NOT IN figures as yet. If you have the shits and you can't get your ass off the toliet but your wiping less frequently and your even able to get up before having to run back into bathroom.....doesn't sound like your getting beter, your just getting worse slower.

EVEN job losses slowing dont equate to job hiring. CONSUMER SPENDING JUMPS????

WHY dont they take food and gas hikes out and see what it looks like. REAL CLUE IS WORK WEEK IS DECLINING....

AM I reaching a pessimistic pinnacle.....

SHOW ME A DAGGONE SIGN WILL YA.....that these JERKS know what they are doing....



http://chinaeconomywatch.blogspot.com/2009/06/chinas-imports-and-global-recovery-brad.html what recovery?

AM DATA shows job losses still near 600K at 601K, HUGE revision to CONTINUING CLAIMS has it at another record.

FLASH RETAIL SALES UP .05% WOW what asurprise with inflation hitting energies and food....not actual demand I would opine.

Business as usual today, I would LOVE to see those who remain complacent get their heads handed to them.



By ALAN ZIBEL, AP Real Estate Writer Alan Zibel, Ap Real Estate Writer – Thu Jun 11, 12:02 am ET

WASHINGTON – The number of U.S. households on the verge of losing their homes dipped in May from April, and the annual increase was the smallest in three years.
But as layoffs, rather than risky mortgages, become the main reason that borrowers default on their home loans, foreclosures likely will remain elevated this year and into 2010.

Many economists expect unemployment, now at 9.4 percent nationwide, to rise as high as 10 percent, and some project it will exceed the post-World War II record of 10.8 percent.

Foreclosure filings fell 6 percent in May from April, according to RealtyTrac Inc. More than 321,000 households received at least one foreclosure-related notice last month — 18 percent more than a year earlier — but the smallest annual gain since June 2006.

Despite the drop from April, it was the third-highest monthly rate since Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac began its report in January 2005, and the third straight month with more than 300,000 households receiving a foreclosure filing.

One in every 398 U.S. homes received a foreclosure filing last month, according to the foreclosure listing firm's report.
The mortgage industry has resumed cracking down on delinquent borrowers after foreclosures were temporarily halted by mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and other lenders.

"It would not be a huge surprise to see the numbers level off a little bit at this point," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's senior vice president for marketing.

Banks repossessed about 65,000 homes in May, up from 64,000 in April, due to big increases in several states including Michigan, Arizona and Nevada.

The Obama administration announced a plan in March to provide $50 billion from the financial industry rescue fund as an incentive for the mortgage industry to modify loans at lower monthly payments.
But the effectiveness of the relief plan remains unclear, with questions lingering about how much the lending industry will cooperate. Many housing counselors say it hasn't made much of a difference so far.

After banks take over foreclosed homes, they usually put them up for sale at deep discounts, pulling down prices for other sellers. Nationwide, sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties made up about 45 percent of the market in April, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Wednesday, June 10, 2009


ALso is $70 DAGGONE OIL ooops unintended goosing consequnce.

Tuesday, June 09, 2009


Ho humm? Well, the NAZ outperformed today with the Dow pulling up rear off less than 2 pts.

Sideways to up until the sellers come back in force, so far most gains from wtihdrawl of selling, most declines from lack of buyers. Nothing changes my opinion of this being a BEar MArket rally.

I have a GRIP acct as one vehicle for retirement, I just switched it to cash to lock in these gains and I do not want to give them back as I think we might by years end.

The liquidity must flow somewhere, the somewhere is stocks. June earnings isn't far behind, but when banks don't have to show the value on their books as mark to market value, what IS the value? of the earnings?

Those who have been reading my posts for awhile may wonder how do I keep it up? where is the cheer?

Don't think the economy isn't weighing on me, it certainly does, but when reporting the data and news, well I try to tell it like it is, too many FAIRY TALE outlets like CNBC and most newspapers. I keep doing it to try and do some good, bring the truth.

I want economic expansion, I want reasons to have that HOP back in my step......With the REAL unemployment rate closer to 20% than 10% I'll keep looking for that blue sky.....and try to avoid the sunpsots. (Transports up 1.5% today)



Monday, June 08, 2009


And when you add up U-3 and all the underutilized workers the official U-6 rate for May 2009 is 16.4%. That’s an official BLS-generated stat that no one really wants to talk about: One out of every six members of the civilian labor force is either out of work or not fully employed. (And that doesn’t even account for the rising ranks of workers coping with furloughs.)







Characater of market could change if that downtrend line is breached.
Wife's Aunt live in Capital heights VA., in real estate. She said she used to SELL 6 homes a month. She has sold only 6 in last 6 months. with LOWERED PRICES WITH LOW RATES

Saturday, June 06, 2009


http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm monthly read available. OK as certain industries have SHED so many jobs, that may be slowing, but that doesn't mean an economic turnaround!


You know this, but seeing it put this way Is startling

David Rosnick Unemployment Climbs to 9.4 Percent http://www.truthout.org/060609Y
David Rosnick, The Center for Economic and Policy Research: "Employment is now down 6.0 million jobs from its peak in December 2007- the 4.3 percent decline reflecting the largest relative loss of jobs in over 50 years."

Now if our new GREEN economy is going to “grow” (will it?) 2 mil no 3…no at last 4 million new jobs…wierd we seem to be LOSING jobs not gaining any jobs….. the ROSIEST gov scenario we will be LESS near 2 MILLOIN jobs (and counting ! wooooffff). Gov officials expect unemployment of OVER 10% at peak.....and suspect actual HIRING will recover VERY SLOWLY.

Take at LEAST 2 million OFF the consumer dependent economy even under a rosey scenario (down the road)…..LOTS of GOV “ASSumptions” were made with 8.5% unemployment, one of which was how the STRESS TESTS were based.

SO what is driving economy and stock market valuations here? a horrible kerplunk is possible. I would LOVE to be the first person to be cheery and write fun stuff, happy stuff....but this is what you get....this is what I see....I love my country (I just don't like some who run it!) I think the avg American just wants to left alone to do their thing, not TOLD what to do OR RELY on the GOV for EVERYTHING....shit they can't even take care of them selves. And they screw up almost everything they touch.

FREE MARKETS? what is that... SO MF'er if you're going to try and HELP!!! give us access to some freakin loans!!!! HOW is this thing turning around with STruever BRos shutting down their contruction projects? "can't get bank loans" A BLEEP (cursed enough I guess) BLEEP joke!

But we GAVE $TRILLIONS to THE BANKS.....they are (some of them the CHOSEN ONES) FAT DUMB and HAPPY and can make money DOING NOTHING, RISKING NOTHING so why LOAN????

We got K Winter going on here and it ain't done til it's done and g-d HELP us if THEY are making it last longer and worse.


SAT AM POST "Something Rotten in Denmark?"

*click to enlarge
I think we have a wedge forming in CITIGROUP stock, there's NO PLACE left to go here, which way she gonna break? 200 EMA LONG WAY OFF pheww.
This is one of the largest banks left. HEAVY in consumers too.
As best I am able to tell, I cannot know for sure rally from MArch lows is done, what I can say to the best of my ability and observations, there is a GREATER "chance" this rally represents JUST a rally in anongoing BEAR market, and NOT the start of a NEW BULL MKT.
If I am right, caution is what I will observe, and NOT go chasing this thing long into the night, the time to consider some risk taking was months and 40% lower ago, IMHO
SOLID Bear bottoms, take time, usually get tested, and rally don't usally break MUCH above the declining 200 EMA first go round either.
It's all about risk/reward IMHO with the markets, and I think the risk is staying TOO long in a bear market rally.

Friday, June 05, 2009


Short and sweet, I'll rant tomorrow afternoon.

Yields on 10 yr now at 8 month high, even WITH FED monetization. I am friends with a bond trader, he feels this could kill the housing market "rebound". NOT GOOD, and NOT because economy is kicking it, it may kicking the can, not into high gear.

PLEASE AVOID the idiots at CNBC, the few that make any sense get talked over.

Market on surface did nothing, but we did get a reversal in the SPX after a new high and most indexes fell back below or were kept under the 200 EMA (exponential moving avg)

Take care until tomorrow,


http://baltimore.bizjournals.com/baltimore/ SHOW ME THE DAMN BEEF!!!

Is CNBC off the air yet?



chart courtesy of American Trucking


We have our reversal I had alerted this morning as a possibility. BUT the day is young, let's see how we close.

Also this data from truckers association




Is our perfect storm approaching? 9.4% rate.....ONLY 325K jobs lost???? much lower than expected but doesn't jive with Thursday numbers of 600K plus.

avg workweek dropped.

Briefing.ocm (previous report)

It is hard to derive a positive spin from the recent market argument that at least the rate of decline in economic data is slowing.

The increase in the unemployment rate is noteworthy for other reasons. The 2009 Obama administration budget (ended Sept. 30, 2009) called for a $1.7 trillion deficit. The economic assumptions assumed an 8.1% average unemployment rate for 2009. That looks like a very long stretch at this time, as the rate is likely to move higher the next few months. That implies that the deficit this fiscal year will be higher than forecast.
There have been hopes recently of a steadying in consumer spending leading to a stabilization in economic trends this fall or later this year, but the hourly earnings data does not provide much support for that argument.
These are still massive job losses and wage gains are minimal. Granted, payroll trends do lag overall economic trends, but unless businesses start to show a willingness to hire and not just to lay off fewer people, the market may be ahead of itself in looking at the recent economic data as harbingers of much better trends.<<

Lots of assumptions NOT based on 9.4% unemployment....LONG TERM YIELDS RISING

A ZUTZ open, a possible blowoof top maybe IF....get reversal day.

9.4% ARGUES not only are jobs NOT being created, the headline number the futures are jumping to seems rather decieiving to me. 10 yr yield 3.87% could roil ANY hope of housing recovery.

And where does $70 oil fit into the plans?


Thursday, June 04, 2009


Just finished reading Stats from my Lowery's sub, and up is up my friends, but it is coming on punk volume, narrowing breadth, sluggish demand and maybe just more from a WITHDRAWL of heavy selling pressure.

I don't know exactly where this ends, but I still believe we are not in a new BULL MKT, we have a rally the best money out of thin air could create. The bond market seems SPASTIC.

Inching to new recovery highs on our tiptoes, not with a club in hand smahing our way through....too much does not add up to me.

My inquiring suspectful mind is wondering if recent action is attempt to prop up the market ahead of tomorrows employment report...or call it unemployment. CAN you believe the numbers are still coming in over 600,000?!

2 great pieces to read


"Studebaker, Nash-Kelvinator, Packard, Hudson, Stutz, Pierce-Arrow, Stanley, Checker and American Motors were once household names of the U.S. auto industry. Unlike General Motors in our time, they were not too big to fail. Despite mergers and rescue efforts by their owners, each was shut down. Their legacy lives on as classic cars, restored with erotic affection by collectors.
GM's end is different. In the spirit of the new age, General Motors, like Citigroup and AIG, will be kept alive in an industrial coma. One has to ask: Is this where the entire country is headed? Since January, it looks like it is."

Time to end AGE OF THE DEAL
"If there is any overarching goal for President Barack Obama and Congress as they face economic and fiscal disaster, it should be to end the Age of the Deal."




You can see thebreakout from the prior trading ranges, so even if I feel this is bear rally, I am waiting for a sign sellers have woken up, last hour trading shows buy the dip might still be in vogue.
When this IT rally ends, it could get ugly fast, for now I'll remain on sidelines.


** AM update job losses 621,000 4 week moving avg rises 4,000...some continuing claims dropped off. I have LOST count of how many jobs have been lost this "Recession".....good to see GS get an upgrade.. I have a customer come in and tell me "biz is good...we're hiring 2 people...but there's a SPENDING FREEZE" if companies that are hiring and BIZ is good freeze spending......"

2001 Recession was OVER as job losses ROSE to 500,000. LOOK how quickly job losses mounted this "Recession". Should we rejoice when it falls to ONLY 500,000?
from Paul Craig Roberts
..."As monetization of federal debt goes forward, US interest rates will continue to rise, worsening the problems in the real estate sector. The dollar will continue to lose value, making it harder for the US to finance its budget and trade deficits. Domestic inflation will raise its ugly head despite high unemployment.
The incompetents who manage US economic policy have created a perfect storm.
The Obama-Federal Reserve-Wall Street plan for the US to spend its way out of its problems is coming unglued. The reckless spending is pushing the dollar down and interest rates up.
Every sector of the US economy is in trouble. "
* What may actually surprise everyone is if the US $ does NOT fall off a cliff....just yet. Gold may be correcting, Europe and the Euro look very weak......$ may stay alive despite the reckless actions of the FED.
More job data this AM, MAY have effect on market action. WILL the 200 EMA provide the resistance to the persistant bear rally?
Will the VIX rise above 32 or fall below 26?
There is guesswork but no safe SETUPS IMHO either side.
SHOULD one CHASE after a bear mkt rally already clocking in 40% gains? When earnings don't back it up?
Recessions tend to be over when markets racked up this kind of gain. Does anyone think this one is over?

Wednesday, June 03, 2009


justatrader, what do you make of this? Boy what a surprise! haa Yes the things we use. food, gas, energy, healthcare all go up....but thank goodness that laptop went down.


One trend line I'm watching for possible change in character and trend.



Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV 3.02) reported a wider-than-expected loss and a steep drop in revenues for its fiscal second quarter, and while the company said it has seen stability in home prices, management remains concerned about the challenging home sales environment.

Aetna issues profit warning.

Here's how the data misleads.....last ADP report had 491K jobs lost. NOT talked about on CNBC BS was that it ws revised to loss of 545K jobs!@ did the market rally on the original 491K?

This month showed a STEEP rise to 532K (if against 491K) but was reported as a DROP of 13K (against revised 545K) what a joke.

Unemployment sure to rise above 9% but friends is it REALLY JUST 9%? How do the economies of world RECOVER when we keep getting these HUGE jobs losses across wide spectrums of economy?

IMHO stock market reflect ODDLES of HOPE, little substance. My study on 200 EMA posted yesterday may be right on money. By days end we'll see what was behind the numbers .

Upside to factory orders? except last report downgraded from -.09% to -1.9%


Tuesday, June 02, 2009


House in my brothers neighborhood sold in 2005 for $714,900. 3300 sq ft

3 wooded acres, private neighborhood.

Minutes from shopping etc.

NOW listed $675,000 4 bedrooms 3.5 baths built 1986 (brick exterior)

Something called “zestimate” (zillow.com) says $619,000

OUCH….mkt rally an illusion IMHO


Compare to chart below of 2002-2003 bottoming of previous bear mkt and draw your own conclusions, I have posted my OPINIONS and OBSERVATIONS. Leave a comment with any questions. I conclude, when the action in your mind doesn't FIT the news or data, or what you SEE with your own eyes in the world, we must look at the charts to give us a more unbiased unfiltered view IMHO.


Back in 2002 Bear, can we gain some insight? Click on ALL charts to enlarge. If nature of the descending 200 EMA will hold again, even AFTER final 2002-2003 lows, it affected price.
Near a TRANSPORT AVG FIB R, both Trans and DOW according to DOW THEORY need to agree on direction.

Monday, June 01, 2009


Many experts and models are calling this move start of NEW BULL MKT. And wouldn't that be nice, to end this recession and see economy build jobs instead of shed them.

Here's a typical headline As stocks surge, Treasurys lose appeal what is actually happening is demand for debt added to switch in invetsment preference are causing the yield to rise as is the switch to SHORTER TERM NOTES because of threat of inflation.

Is this one of those unintended consequences? The FRAGILE housing market "rebound" is tenable to LOW LOW RATES....MANY ADJ mortgages are in the midst of being rset from 2004-2006 3-1 and 5-1 adj.

On a technical note, at the close the SPX ended back under its DECLINING 200 EMA, I am wondering if the gap left open near 920 is filled in next day or 2.

Of course the economies will not continue to PLUNGE at rate of -6% GDP each qtr....slowing decent is not expansion.

With no hint of job recovery, and we are 70% consumer driven economy, is that light a train coming?



*click to enlarge. comments speak for themselves. These are MY observations


http://yelnick.typepad.com/ "A cluster of historic firsts presage FINAL stock surge" FWIW
Higher interest rates dont bode well for the housing market.


A government report on Friday showed consumer spending, which accounts for over 70 percent of economic activity, rose at a 1.5 percent annual rate in the first quarter, but slower than the 2.2 percent increase the Commerce Department had previously estimated. Consumption plunged in the second half of last year.

Personal income rose 0.5 percent, the biggest increase since May last year, after falling by a revised 0.2 percent in March. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast income to fall 0.2 percent in April.
Disposable income surged 1.1 percent in April, boosted by tax cuts and increased social benefit payments under the government's record $787 billion stimulus package, the Commerce Department said. Excluding the stimulus package, disposable income increased 0.7 percent in April.

"The income data was skewed by the stimulus, where unemployment insurance was accelerated and extended. If you take that out it doesn't look as good as it seems," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak & Co in New York.
avings jumped to a record annual rate of $620.2 billion. The savings rate rose to 5.7 percent in April, the highest level since February 1995, from 4.5 percent the previous month.
Households, buffeted by job losses and falling asset values, are cutting spending on nonessential items, preferring to save any extra income.
Inflation nudged up in April, with the personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, at 1.9 percent on a year-over-year basis from 1.8 percent in March.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Neil Stempleman)


The market will continue to DISCOUNT the future today, and it must be that GM going bankrupt is great for everyone....except those who will lose their jobs and dealerships.
The VALUE of what you hold in your pocket continues to deteriorate and buy less, is the FED'S attempt to INFLATE AWAY the mess it created working?
Is the WORST OVER? I will try to answer in some detail after the close. I am sorry, I find little good in the GOV now owning GM, or in almost any economic data that is presented without bias.
AT the end of bear market rallies they usually go out looking the best, have drawn back in the most......only to take them down.....according to my TA, I have no setups to be LONG the US stock market.....until I do. IF A NEW BULL has somehow reared its head.....IMHO I have no hurry and will wait for my signals.