Wednesday, September 30, 2009

THIS PLANET NOT ALIGNED

SATURN GOES DOWN LINK HERE as my buddies say "more green shoots"

D

CURRENT MARKET ACTION


Market reversed from opening range breakdown, but could not hold gains, losses were minimal. But it fits into recent correction action, I used the 60M chart to show one possible view.
We can't rule out anything, including new highs for rally, but it would seem the correction may have further to run. As mostly everyone is bullish, any pullback is being seen as a buying opportunity.
Valuations IMHO are getting rich, dividend yield on SPX down to near 2.0%. 10 YR YIELD is 3.3%.
The type of rally we have seen from March, seems in contrast to the fall in yields to 3.3%. Maybe it's monetization. The BOND market usually gets it right, and an extremely LOW yield of 3.3% isn't telling us INFLATION is winning IMHO

D

FED BUYS 100% OF MORTGAGES?

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/federal-reserve-buys-more-100-mortgages-issued-2009/28343

FED SECRECY

LINK TO PAUL'S ARTICLE ON WHAT MAY BE BEHIND THE FED SECRECY

MARKET ALERT "HEADS OR TAILS"

from an email blast

From the Editors of American Banker
Insolvency of DIF Likely to Last Years
WASHINGTON - The FDIC on Tuesday said the DIF is headed to insolvency and will stay there for at least three years. Rather than rebuild it immediately to the statutory 1.15% reserve level, the agency plans to meet its liquidity needs by raising $45B from banks' prepaying the next few years' worth of premiums.

HEY THEY DIDNT MANIPULATE THIS MANUTE?

9:46am:U.S. Sept. Chicago PMI falls to 46.1% from 50.0%

D

SURPISE, NO

Gold bounces, US $ dives, even at single digit bulls, $ is having it's troubles rising in value...as end of qtr gaming is over, boy that's a surprise.....

Morning MSM comments...."Consumer is recovering, will go back to spending early 2010"
"home prices are stabilizing, bottoming case/shiller data proves it..." "recovery will be like all recoveries....it's NOT different this time"

How MUCH recovery is already priced into stocks? No mention of fact Consumer Confidence fell last report and is at RECORD LOWS? considering mamoth historic rise in stock prices?

No mention $8K credit to first time home buyers make BULK of new purchases in data? That higher priced homes just SITTING THERE, NO ACTION? WITHOUT STIM what then recovery?

No mention near $trillion put into banking system with little or no regard to how it would be used and that maybe that fueled current rally?

Why keep saying how gerat it's getting when we are far from out of the woods? IMHO AM employment data MIGHT be market moving, coming at 8:30 will this be too seasonally adjusted?

D

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

"GOOD BILLIONS AFTER BAD"

Photo illustration by Chris Mueller.
VANITY FAIR ARTICLE LINK HERE. They have done outstanding job detailing what was done, and if this doesn't get the hair on your neck standing and get you pissed off, nothing will.
Just wonder what our economy might have been now, if those BILLIONS Paulson got would have lifted tons of that toxic crap off the banks books, instead of just lining their fing pockets.
This is SO sickening, even though I already knew many of the details, made me sick to read it again. There's nothing funny about it, rather sad.....instead most of the toxic crap is sitting on the books, no one wants to underwrite mortgages....and the market for 2ndry paper is broken.
D

INTO THIN AIR. OUT OF THIN AIR

another fed official talking "tough" on inflation link here I'LL TELL, BOY THIS ECONONIC revival is so amazing so fast....maybe it passed me by. Surely this is GOOD NEWS to the 6.9 MILLION workers CUT since DEC of just 2007 making it the worst period of job losses since WWII

As recent post suggested, the FED has become the lender of first and last resort....9 of 10 mortgages connected to a GSE....where did they get the money?

What is succintly wrong here is THEY DON'T GET IT.....this is not an inventory crisis, or over build crisis or any of those that respond well to even MORE stimulus.

WE CHOKED on TOO MUCH CREDIT, TOOMUCH DEBT and hardly anyone is taking responsability for it.

When the FACTS show contracting credit, falling rail shipments, falling BDI (even if more ships online), near depression levels historic lows in Consumer confidence. NO more availability of home equity loans, stagnant incomes, 7 M fewer employed…and so on…WTF??? Recovery?

DID the rally base itself on a quick fix to all of this? Or is it based on huge injections of money printed out of thin air? The case for us bulding a sustainable economy from printing money is that thin.

D

DOWN THE SINKHOLE

FROM POSTER COMMENT ON ZERO HEDGE BLOG LINK HERE

Here is excerpt mainly to help you find it, it will take a moment of work but worth it, just scroll down to comment # shown here:

by London Banker on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 01:18#82175

"I posted this over at Roubini's blog, but think it probably belongs here too - especially as it represents a nice neat conspiracy theory.
@ HayesGood to see you. I'm still not able to post a blog, but can't resist hanging with the blog buddies here in the comments.

Clearly a great deal of the easy money from QE in US, UK and EU has ended up in speculative momentum in asset markets (equities, commodities, bonds) as a new carry trade. Virtually none of it has gone to financing productive investment or increased retail/commercial lending that would promote consumption/growth in the real economy. The result is a bubble in asset prices blown up by the easy money, with no realistic basis in actual consumer, business or economic fundamentals. As a result, it is clearly unsustainable. When it will burst is anyone's guess.
I think it's a pre-meditated set up that will be burst to achieve a political agenda - just as with the Lehman failure/Reichstag Fire for the Paulson Plan looting. And I think the Fed and PBs are positioning things now to burst the bubble soon - if only to forestall the Audit the Fed Bill. "

D

MID DAY BLUES BREAK

WHAT CONFIDENCE?


Historical LOW "present" conditions in PURPLE fell again. Some cowards wait to post after a market rally.
I am not trying to pinpoint an exact day or week or anything, all I am saying is I can refute most ARGUMENTS for a bullish outcome and sustainable expansion.
And I ask based on this chart, after such a historic of beat down....where's the beef? AFTER HISTORIC STOCK MARKET RALLY WHERE IS THE PRESENT SITUATION RALLY IN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE? Makes me wonder what's behind rally.....we'vre covered that already
Duratek

HISTORY LESSON


WHEN THINGS DON'T ADD UP

How do we expand to a sustainable recovery when the ability of businesses and consumers alike to EXPAND their debt is impaired? Revenues are down, demand for credit is down, rail traffic is down, the BDI is down, job growth doesn't exist....we are 7 MILLION workers down and none of these, and none of those employed are able to draw out monies from increasing home values.

The Chinese market began turning down iN AUG, will that be seen down the road as a warning sign ignored? Or will we keep just laughing it off, and keep following the flow of liquidity whose main objective is to reinflate assets.

D

CHART FOR THE AM


Consumer confidence and Case/Shiller home prices data at 9 AM

D

Monday, September 28, 2009

CLUES


Add to this down another 2% bringing drop from highs now greater than 20%. Now this doesn't add up to the story they're telling does it?
SHARP DROP OFFS IN NEW BIZ STARTUPS LINK TO WSJ
FIRST MARINER PROBLEMS COULD BE LOOK INTO WHAT OTHERS FACE IN COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE LINK HERE
Todays action may be result of end of qtr window dressing, I don't see a good reason for it. OR did last weeks decline lure in the buyers for "bargains"? Rest of week, we'll get our answer, today the volume was well below average, but intensity was there.
And from Ron PAul
"Under the guise of currency control, they are able to help out powerful allies on Wall Street, in exchange for lucrative jobs or who-knows-what favors later on. An audit would expose the Fed as a massive fraud perpetrated on this country, enriching a privileged few bankers at the top of our economic food chain, and leaving the rest of us with massively devalued dollars which we are forced to use by law. An audit would make people realize that, while Bernie Madoff defrauded a lot of investors for a lot of money, the Fed has defrauded every one of us by destroying the value of our money. An honest and full accounting of how the money system really works in this country would mean there is not much of a chance the American people would stand for it anymore."
D

Sunday, September 27, 2009

STAGE IS SET


* Something got to give, which one will it be?
Duratek

PONZINOMICS WILL ULTIMATELY FAIL

REPOST OF DOUG NOLAND'S CREDIT BUBBLE REPORT.
Here is LINK to FROM BEAR TO BEAR

2 paragraphs from this inciteful report, and I URGE you to read his complete summary always found towards the bottom of stats many cannot stomach. IMHO Mr Noland has the most eloquant prose and most intelligent and level headed opinions on what has happened and what is likely to be the outcome given current tactics being used. The importance of which I have now just re-read it myself rings to me loud as the Phila Bell.

"And if the nuances of the past twenty years (or more) argue against extrapolation, I contend that the emergence of the Government Finance Bubble argue only further complicates drawing historical inferences. First of all, massive monetary and fiscal stimulus has supported system-wide incomes, spending, and corporate revenues. Policies also incited an unwind of bearish positions and a rather robust, albeit speculative, stock market rebound. Thus far, zero rates and Trillion dollar deficits has created the illusion of normalcy – when it comes to both the markets and real economy. This creates an “analytical” hook that will snare many.

In contrast to previous mortgage-Credit dominated reflations, the evolving global reflation will prove unique for its lack of self-reinforcing dynamics here at home. Before, a Trillion of net additional mortgage Credit would reliably inflate home prices and induce more borrowing, consumption and investment - all of which worked to bolster self-reinforcing confidence in the underlying Credit apparatus and the overall soundness of the general boom-time economy. Today, faith in this private-sector Credit machine is broken, while housing Bubble/consumption psychology is badly shattered......."

Saturday, September 26, 2009

REVOLTIONARY ROAD

My father died 2 years ago, his wife from 2nd marriage dies late last year. Father left 2 kids, Pat left 7 sons! And as fair as could be split their modest assets evenly between the 9 families, what could be nicer or fairer than that? I never needed nor asked to see the will...my father was fair like that, and Pat was a great lady.

On the other side is my step-father, like wall street bankers GREED and anti-social behaviour is what you get, my mother died almost 14 years ago, married 2nd time to this dude for 25 years and a bypass trust was set up, it was here wishes that her 2 children be left something and was also her wishes the principal amount be left alone, some $650,000 of which the 2 children get 25% and the step fathers son gets the other 50%, just how it was. ALL that really needed to be done was set it up in bonds or balanced funds and the earnings would go right to the remaining spouse.

But that wasn't good enough, he drained the entire amount, every last cent without a care to anyone but himself. When I accidently found out several months ago, well I was pretty pissed off. I had rights after consulting a lawyer, in the end I let it go. Why? because you never know if justice will be served and justice is not free, and the others involved would suffer, my family and my step brothers (he was supposed to be trustee..obviously did shitty job)...I wasn't willing to do that to them...sue of course for negligence. I can let that go.

I offered a solution that would be fair and set things right, the step father would have none of it....a piece of property he bought with most of the money would be put back into some kind of legal document, my stepbrothers family would benefit most.

There would be ONE PRICE TO PAY for not acting like a human being, basically being a bastard my entire time of knowing him, never showing any emotion or caring, not to me not to my stepbrother, his kids, nor my only son....once he even forgot his fing name.

That price would be that unless he made this right, I would NEVER speak to him again, not a single word....ever. Not be in same room , not attend any function or holiday...where he would be there....have nothing further to do with him.

He cut his own son out of his will for spite and left EVERYTHING to his 2nd wife....just an all around decent guy.

Let me tell you something, you do good for people, be a decent person and when you die people will remember you. When you are a shit human being, when you die you are instantly forgotten...like you never were.

WHy do I tell this story? Because this is my blog, and this is where I leave a little bit of myself every day I post in it, and maybe some can relate to this story.

I'm OK, someone finally had to stand up to this creep, and let him know it's not alright to always just think of yourself, and care for no one....that MONEY is the only thing that matters.

Now more than ever money better not be the only thing that matters, because so many of us, our American brothers are up against it. And all we are getting is lip service.....GREED, more GREED and self serving self perpetuating policies.

But guess what? The more this goes on, the madder people get, the more questions they are asking, the more they know they been had and something is wrong.

And the last time I looked, the COnstitution was for the people, by the people....and the people keep saying "DON'T DO THIS, OR DON'T DO THAT...." and the people in office supposed to SERVE US, do what the fuck they want in total disregard for the majority....it isn't that the minority should be dismissed, but you have to have some way to make decisions....and the people are not being listened to....think about that next time you vote.

Think about just voting party line when you realize the laws that protected us were wiped clean first with CLinton, then BUSH and now Obama...is he so stupid and ill informed that he thinks Bernanke is doing a bang up job? DID he not pay attention to the last 4 years of his decisions and public comments? and all the other henchmen out there....taking care of the big boys....the GS's and JPM's of the world.

And what a pleasant morning it is to wake up and know the greedy bastards who started this financial tsunami, IMHO and voted TOO BIG TO FAIL are now TOO BIGGER TO FAIL and wield even more weight and heft....and are busy making their billion trading with FED $$$$'s all to get healthy....to make big profits.....and not to lend the money....and are set up to make BILLIONS more in bonuses...OH I can't wait for the press tour Obama will set up, hope he gets on LEtterman again....

What goes around comes around.

It is possible the GOV must continue to try and inflate and spend while hoping the Consumer and Businesses will fall back into previous habits.....if the GOV tightens its belt maybe no one will spend? I think we got ourselves into one helluva mess with NO EASY WAY OUT.

Think of ALL the ways money used to leak into the economy, the home ATM machines, anyone could get credit.....spend, lend and bend....and build build build...borrow borrow.

Understand this, we reached a point in our PONZINOMICS (remember who coined this if it gets popular haa) where the pile of shit got so high it began to topple.

Some of the unscrupulous bedbugs were seen scurrying out from under the sheets and rocks....but they probably just found another bed....but the game couldn't continue.

FOUL it up they did with putrid rancid paper, most now either owned by the FED (that must stink) or remains HIDDEN from view in a bankd vault somehwere and much thanks to the abrupt end to Mark To MArket accounting....is kept near face value....so THE APPEARENCE of profits and banking health, that little myth can be propogated to the masses.

DID a historic debt bubble fix itself already? since certain rules and laws that protected us were relaxed first in 2000....we have suffered thru 2 burst bubbles and now a housing debt bubble....and the stock market is below its path of almost 10 years ago...we sit with $100 TRILLION of unfunded liabilities (SS and Medicare) and another $12 Trillion public debt....the $12 Trillion and the how many $trillions for the BANK bailouts....we just PRINT to pay.....an obscene finger gestured to the American people.

This is a great country but I keep hearing how we are the richest country in the world....why is it we are the most in debt?

Duratek

INSIDE MY HEAD

……..”when investors are rushing to get reinvested” (piece of sentence from one of my subs and my response) above relates to oversold condition.

I would like to throw out a hint of caution here, and remember my comments down the road should I be right. (or wrong too haaa) Shorts have scampered to cover, there is NO proof of individuals rushing back in, none.

Most of the so called volume is coming from 5 stocks, the living dead. Most of the volume is coming from program trading and high volume trading. Most of the money for buying is coming from the FED funneled thru the big wall street firms.

The volume has been WANING since the outset of the March lows.

At the March lows in LOCK STEP came the slaughter of the US $, it goes down other things go up.

Insiders selling at historic highs.

There is nothing wrong with sounding a note of caution to your valued readers this may be nothing more than a bear market advance. DO investors need to be in every advance?

This one smells. I wont get a technical SELL until down the road we see lower highs and rallies that don’t carry us to new highs……in the meantime, there is nothing going on the fundamental side to bring us a sustainable economic advance.

Respectfully yours,

*I respect my subs, I don't have to follow lock step, always agree.....and I can still love the service. And yes the mkt can continue t advance in the face of anything logical.....but in my mind....how much higher? hasn't the EASY money been made? Greed may not pay off much longer.

To offer differing views this is what CarL Swneson of decision pt is saying

Duratek

RECORD LEVELS OF INSIDER SELLING



Aren't the insiders of businesses the ones most likely to SEE the future? why record levels of selling then?

LINK FOR COMPLETE STORY http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/10/news/economy/insider.sales/index.htm?postversion=2009091016

>>>>"It's not a very complicated story," said Charles Biderman, who runs market research firm Trim Tabs. "Insiders know better than you and me. If prices are too high, they sell."

Biderman, who says there were $31 worth of insider stock sales in August for every $1 of insider buys, isn't the only one who has taken note. Ben Silverman, director of research at the InsiderScore.com web site that tracks trading action, said insiders are selling at their most aggressive clip since the summer of 2007. <<<<<


Duratek

CLOSER LOOK AT CURRENT 2009 SPX


Big difference here right? Tops DO take time to form......first thing is for a corection to take us down and subsequent RALLY to fall short of prior high (decline then continues to a new low for move etc etc)....THEN we can consider that a trend change MAY be taking hold. Maybe we got trouble coming, but it IS going to take time to recognize that on the chart, it isn't here yet.
Duratek

2007 MARKET TOP


BALL OF YARN

"time of our unraveling may be sooner than you think"......LINK to JESSE'S CAFE'

"FROM BEAR TO BEAR"

EACH SAT DOUG NOLAND LEAVES SOMETHING WORTH READING LINK HERE TO LATEST

PONZI NOMICS


PONZI SCHEME : n.
"A fraud disguised as an investment opportunity, in which initial investors and the perpetrators of the fraud are paid out of funds raised from later investors, and the later investors lose all funds invested..."
The stock market is a ponzi scheme too, when the market no longer can rise on it's own as NEW FUNDS committed DRY UP.....it's a game of musical chairs to the exit. PRICES CRASH as bids are hard to find.
IMHO we are VERY CLOSE if not there now to a scheme where should the bids dry up, ALL THAT LEVERGAE used to manipulate this market rally should slow to a trickle (FED HAS ANNOUNCED AN EXIT STRATEGY TO THEIR QE as such) the only bids will be themselves...because as shown previously with direct connection between RISING STOCKS AND THINGS and the death spiral of the US $.
I have taken a small position in SDS a few days ago, when I put my BEAR PHOTO up, with 3% $ BULLS and end of FED meeting where it was hinted time may be up for QE, and my OWN TA this seemed to be the place.
No top calling, no name calling, no trend calling......look at the chart impassionately, make a call......don't get up in the PONZI SCHEME.
banks are HIDING their BAD ASSETS....in the $TRILLIONS.....like a VAMPIRE they must be exposed to the light of day........burned asunder.....then maybe we can repair and move on.
Commercial properties are next....lots of mortgage resets.....YOU tell me how we can afford to throw even more DEBT LOGS onto the fire....to lift our economy up? READ KD's piece, you will understand better the position we are in. THE FED is run by a bunch of idiots....if they say " we didnt see this coming...." one more time.....see the Bernanke video I put up.....and now this CLOWN is leading us out?..what out of the tunnel into the colliseum?
Duratek

Friday, September 25, 2009

EARLY DAYS END

I'm taking off a bit early....is market holding up or is this end of month arm wrestling? Many famous Bears are all BULLISH.....no fear from many newsletters.

Maybe we just hit air pocket I don't know, what is the limit of a liquidity based no fundamental asset inflated move?

I'll be IN tomorrow so I'll put something together for this weekend, everybody take it easy.....OH PS....lots of commercial and residential PROPERTY TAX bills coming due......

D

"THERE'S NO AVOIDING THE MATH" or PONZI NOMICS

Karl Denninger does it again, some things just don't add up folks, here is the link to the must read piece

PONZI NOMICS

DOES THE MARKET SENSE THIS?

FED WARSH COMMENTS LINK TO WSJ

HUI LOOKING TOPPY HERE

I am thinking US $ bulls were down to 3%.....golds going to correct, IMHO

D

DAY OF RECKONING FOR THE US $?



Berninger http://www.berninger.de and

FWIW

D

DO YOU SEE WHAT I SEE?


ROCK IS A HARD PLACE

August Existing Home Sales link to briefing.com
Updated 24-Sep-09 10:31 ET
About this release

Highlights

Existing home sales declined 2.7% to 5.10 million homes in August. The decline follows four consecutive months of increasing sales including a jump of 7.2% in July.

The consensus expected sales to continue rallying in August.

The median home price declined 2.1% month-over-month to $177,700.

NAR will probably attempt to spin this report as positive due a sharp decline in the supply of existing homes (-2.1%) in August.

Key Factors

This report failed to showcase any return to strength in the housing market.

The first time homebuyer tax break is expected to end in November and we expect home sales to drop sharply over the next few months. Since the spring, buyers have been rushing out to close on houses before the tax break expires as 30% of homes were purchased through this program.

Beyond the first time homebuyer, the housing market is extremely unstable.

**Yesterday's decline may have seemed tame as in points lost, but that masked underlying weakness as 88% DOWN VOLUME was registered, why there wasn't a greater point loss? the invisable hand? because there weren't many REAL BUYERS ON THE BID

Ask yourself, credit contracting, outside of stimulus not much going on, if so MUCH rides on recovering housing market, above report does not bode well.

END of month play may go on today, but RIMM laid hairball in AH and fell over $9 a share.

I mean after 50% PLUS RALLY it would be nice to get even some SCANT REAL DATA to justify it.

Well, lastly if you think that it's a good idea to just PRINT money to pay for things, as the FED has been doing, I mean we issue the bonds, we print the money, we buy the bonds?

We add the stimulus, we issue the bonds, we print the money? Maybe you can do this for a few Trillion or so (maket goes up, $ goes down....are you better off?) but what about the coming due $100 TRILLION in UNFUNDED liabilities?

I don't like the thought of this end game.....how transparent can you get? did ZIMBABWE print themselves to prosperity? or is it all an illusion?

D

Thursday, September 24, 2009

RIPPLES

Has the US $ found a floor (for now)? All this talk about loss of reserve currency status, FED flooding and printing like no tomorrow, more importantly hard to find a sole loving the dollar.

Usually extremes beg for correction, it is quite possible that has begun. Yesterday was a new high and low close and a more than a few took notice of that. Brainiacs, the hair all were asking oN CNBC "gee pardner...that was strange, what's up with that?" MY goodness my young astute man, where did you get those smarts? PLEASE share with us more pearls of wisdom that will keep us safe at night.

Bar your door, change the channel. READ AND GET YOUR OWN OPINION or those nitwits will give it to you.

WHAT IF.....a good bit of this rally was funded with bailout money? and instead of lending it out they decided to shop for some SPX'S? isn;t that possible? many are suggesting it....and how about a few stocks making up a ginormous 30% of overall volume on days? same names keep popping up.

Is there a $ carry trade going on? WHERE DID all our money go? WHY isn't someone going to jail? WHY are people still listening to Bernanke? IS that guy Greenspan still around?

Volker suggests bringing back seperation of Banks from financial hokey pokey.

WHY can't banks just be happy making lots of money old fashioned way loaning it to good people and companies? WHAT ASSHOLE thought it would be good idea to let banks become the stock market, use proprietary alogrythms and a few practices maybe they shouldn't be allowed to like see your trades and get in front of them as is suggested....and the high frequency trading.

WHERE are the real reforms? WHY ARE THOSE SAME BANKS NOW EVEN TOO BIGGER TO FAIL?

A false market? greatest rally from BEAR in HISTORY WITH THE LEAST VOLUME INCREASE? I smell a rat.....and for better or worse, I disagree with BUffet, Grant and a whole host of smarter people than me....can you loan me your straight jacket? I know too much and maybe I'm confusing the fatcs from the truth....

D

HOW TO PULL THE WOOL OVER YOUR EYES



Excellent find from one of our posters, so here it is, thank you for finding this.

Pull up a chair and understand how a BULL MKT is actually a BULLSHIT MARKET, and this WILL END BADLY IMHO (in 2003-2007 bull it was the YEN carry trade)

Duratek

THURSDAY AM "YOU CAN RUN BUT YOU CAN'T HIDE"




NFIB SMALL BUSINESS SURVEY LINK HERE Better to get our information from the preverbial horses mouth than the BLS ass. There is a good reason the stock market and economy usually don't line up with the LEI data....should change the tital to lagging instead of leading.....or lying.
Futures this AM not showing hand yet, 8:30 we get the ever exciting unemployment data (seasonally adj). China overnight was up 10 pts.
There was some good ooopghh behind yesterdays late day "surprising" (CNBC) selloff.....lots of profits just SITTING THERE.....who will blink first? hey don't worry just let it ride?
Remember we probably going to get a distorted view of real economy whe GDP is devlivered and then get a cavalcade of pasty face white men coming on telling us how great the economy is doing. Inventories are depleted for a good reason, businesses don't expect sales.....but there will be some rebuilding and don't forget klunkers and home credit.....w/o we have no economy.
What the NFBI survey is plainly telling me, is not much for hiring, not much for capital spending.....not much of anything, but prayers.
And if you aren't in one of those LUCKY industries touched by the HAND OF STIMULUS the new G-d of Economy.....you aren't seeing much of anything.
Day after FED is usually played for a move opposite previous days move. SInce MArch we have had SCANT follow through to any days selling including any 90% down days thrown in there....when you have the HAND of stimulus at your back, good call to those who have riden this rally......I only suggest you consider your exit strategy to BOOK YOUR PROFITS if you can them that.....should the cloak of misdirection come away and what is is what is seen.
PLease understand prices are implying blue skies and one helluva recovery is right in front of us. GDP also includes if I am correct stock market performance.
Yesterdays FOMC statement can be fond HERE. We have been told there is no inflation, but what usually happens when the US $ weakens?
Duratek

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

REVERSAL OF FORTUNES? PM WRAP DOWN


*click to enlarge chart. It is typical to get initial, multiple HEAD FAKES after FED announcement. AND TODAY WAS NO DIFFERENT.
My comments on chart I don't need to repeat here.
I also won't announce the death of the rally either, imagine that? Blue arrow show oversold and last time the bounce after.....one day reversal is a warning not a new trend just yet.
The US $ no surprise caught a bid ....a little one, at miniscule bullish readings there is a shitload of room to upside, don't expect a rally in a $ you think is dead to surprise you....
OIL data today shows NO PREMISE FOR RALLY in what's important to me.....you use energy in an expanding economy.....funny all of a sudden we gots tons of oil and nat gas....prices should fall.
The relationship of oil to natgas is at a decade or higher extreme. One rallies on weak dollar the other crumbles from high supply and slack deamand?
Next day after Fed TEND TO BE OPPOSITE DIRECTION OF wed......WILL THE MKT SURPRISE AGAIN AND RISE THURS?
If it breaks tradition and ends again DOWN......time is RIPE for minimum a correction....to BEGIN righting a rally that has NO BIZ being....
D

The 3 DOORS

Behind one of the doors we have blues skies and thriving economy. Behind another door we have the dark star, black hole of deflation and exploding debt bubble, and behind door #3 we have the unkown.....and the unknow may be where we are headed.

SO many smart people, so many experts, saying different things. New lows coming.....POWERFUL BULL MKT is emrging....get on board not too late.....run for the hills...escape.

During a time like this, for myself I can only apply what I DO KNOW.....and act accordingly....no big bets from me.....but I do know this is no way to run a railroad.

D

I FOUND ONE "GLOBAL ALERT"

*photo courtesy of rueters
UK TELEGRAPH MUST READ ARTICLE AMBROSE PRITCHARD LINK

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU ASK FOR

"NEW BUBBLE OF FED CREATION " POST ARTICLE LINK

As I suggested, take a nap, wake up for 2:15 announcement....grab a chair and hold on.....I don't expect them to rock the boat...we'll see, I already shown how they don't know too much.

D

BASS RIFF

" WHY ARE WE STILL LISTENING TO THIS GUY" Bernake




Now in 2009 recently Bernanke said..."it is likely the Recession is over...." I'm SURE THIS TIME Bernake telling us the worst is over and up up and away we go is the deal....I mean shit even a stopped watch is right at least twice......

Duratek

"BOVINE EXCREMENT"



Safely in his studio in Ireland.....wee liitle truth be tellin here...

D

AM POST : "DEATH BY DOLLAR"

Thanks to INO for chart
Early this AM the dollar index fell below 76.00, now back above.....not much between here and previous lows. You can see, and I have shown how the rally in assets is tied to HIP of weak dollar action, can there be any doubt this is a manipulated attempt to puff up balance sheets?
Unintended consequesces of desiring INFLATION over DEFLATION is higher commodity prices which are going to be PASSED on to COnsumers, yeah those same trying to DELEVERAGE as all stops taken out to get them back to the debt buffet!
Here's what I think is going on JMHO:
There isn't a shred of evidence sans stim the US economy isn't on a heart monitor. WE already know the DIRECT connection to asset flow and weak dollar. Doubling of trasnport avg yet no p/u in carload data nor less followed BDI (in new downtrend) and the new Edmonds survey shows a near 40% PLUNGE in sales as klunker ploy ended....
On top of that we have further evidence the FED actions to ENTICE Consumer back into the DEBT ORGY game has been utter failure with again NO evidence in a perking of credit expansion, instead they continue to retrench and most of that "sideline" cash has made it's way into Bond Funds or is staying in cash...a trend that may be hard to reverse after RECORD LEVELS OF DEBT ACCUMULATED...what they should just go back and pile more onto that?

after a 60% short covering, less worse data, liquidity asset inflation ploy, and evidence the deleveraging has just begun and is ongoing....ANY seperation from the FED and STIM TEET will send share prices PLUNGING. IMHO

What I am looking for. A series of lower highs in the indexes that show attempt to rally to NEW HIGHS has stalled....then I'l short the shit out of this deception manipulated false hope rally....of course I don't reccomend any specific action be followed out by anyone reading this...always consult with financial advisor.
SPX 500 divie yield is down to 2.03% !!! (as per big charts) 3% found at prior MAJOR TOPS
During housing bubble boom all kinds of shot was bought durable goods.....now same rate?
AS PER CUE, days leading up to FED meeting rarely selloff. I can't dream to know what kind of day we'll have....I will guess not much action UNTIL AFTER 2:15....a few head fakes them BAMM volatility should kick up heels. However, wierd as it may sound, next day usually reverses prior days direction.
SO from here how many think we just keep going straight up? even if FED says basically nothing? HOW MANY DOLLAR BULLS LEFT?
Bullish % in rarified AIR...not maybe a trading ally, but part of the puzzle.
CHINA fell to 2842 down 1.89% overnight
Buffet, Grant. Faber...everyone in the pool? AM I the pool boy?
Duratek....why do I think too much?

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

IS CHINA THE "CANARY IN COAL MINE?


This can certainly change in no time, but it certainly looks like the character of this market has changed. Maybe it is headed for 200 MA test...there we will no more, drop approaching 20%
Duratek

CROWDED FIELD RUNS WITH THE BULLS

Horns a goring, lemmings a running all together to the cliff of insanity and even so-called pundits fo the other side say....buy cause it's going up and your cash is turning into turtle soup.

BUBBLE ACTION here folks, you in , you swimming with lemmings and sharks.....and the thought to be exintct puffer fish. ALL THE SAME MARKETS all going up, GOLD, FOREIGN MARKETS (cept SSEC lately) COPPER, CRUDE OIL, of course our beloeved DOW and SPX.....gold fish even... all the same action reeks of a liquidity driven bubble formation....as the US $ toilet tissue stuck on the bottom of your shoe...you can't kick the fing thing off...shoooo....is diving in opposite direction to the DAY it all started in MArch....amazing

SO you will know this f'd up same tired game that keeps messing with us normal folk, you'll know when it ends? and only thing keeping it going is all you buying into it, and well the instigators staying with the program.....no corrections, no dividends....no worries.

Why it's the rally of a lifetime that says it's leading us right ack to the top of where SPX earnings were in a blink of an CYCLOPS eye.....can't you see all those jobs being created? come on I know you can.

OH...you paying close attention to the LEI"??? good thing it's telling you the stock market a HUGE component is going up.

BLS stats on employment? other stuff? ALL effected by games with "SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS"....who knwos what to believe....it ain't that . AFTER ONE YEAR dudes and duettes get DROPPED like a stone from the counting...sure....the number can go DOWN , reason for celebration? as poor bastards w/o jobs who gave up and the GOV gave up on them get roasted at the fire and dropped like hot potato from the counting eyes of the datameisters.

CPI? we dont got no stinkin' inflation! FOOD and ENERGY get dropped out....those rising COMMODITY CHARTS? disregard.....well one thing demand has dropped off cliff, what ever is floating them higher? hmmmm

FED STUCK IN THE SWEET SPOT? yeah more like WET SPOT! AS prices rise for real tings...it dampens demand where these smart fellows are trying to goose....unintended consequences and of course they are genuises (same ones got us in mess too) and will stop what they're doing and do no harm.

BUT, after ALL THE MONEY GIVEN AWAY, thrown from the 'copters...given away and we're not telling who or where.....ZERO interest rates.......what we got folks?

What we got is DECLINING DEMAND FOR DEBT!!!! OOOOPPPS all this hooplah and there is NO proof in REAL WORLD ANYTHING THE FED HAS DONE is sending the troops to the DEBT ALTER.

ALL the poor minyan want to do it seems is to pay DOWN debt from the trough feedings and survive...

SO anyone telling me we're OK, getting OK...excuse me if I don't agree....I live in the real world that seeks equilibrium and a trip back to the norm the bald heads don't want us to get back to.

Castles made of sand, slip into the sea...EVENTUALLY...turn out the light on your way out...

Duratek

ANOTHER CHEERY FELLOW

Paul Craig Roberts "ECONOMY IS A LIE, TOO" LINK

GRANT RINGING THE BELL FOR A TOP?

Fiancial Armegeddon link HERE....interesting good read showing BOTH SIDES

DR DOOM AND GLOOM ET TU?????

MARCFABER BULLISH? LINK HERE

DAMN....what MORE do I need to convince me?....to stay cautious.....maybe I should just give in?????? (can you see my face?)

D

NOT EVERYONE AGREES

CREDIT DEBT CHART WRONG? LINK

Many people telling me why worry? don't fight FED and GOV....getting VERY lonely feeling cautious here.....very lonely...

D

CALLING A SPADE A SPADE

Total credit mkt debt as % of GDP has risen to 375% !!!

Then keep in mind in 1930 the value was 265%. Reversion to the mean followed for years after.

Then think about what Jim Grant just said. Think about the ONLY expansion in debt is coming at the FED level. Think about the K wave.

Think about for Grants chirp to be right….the level of 375% (already a wild record) would have to rise SUBSTANTIALLY !

Is there enough money in the world to even make it so?

The ONLY conclusion I can make is we are either in a Japan scenario and its only 1990 ish or it’s like 1929-1932 and it’s only 1930 or BOTH.

Someone PLEASE explain to me, how we ramp the shit up, when we already have amazing SLACK? We’ll build even more factories in CHINA?

The remaining employed will feel JIGGY and pick up slack for the more than 7 MIL getting no paychecks? But don’t we even have to do better than that?
If we have $80 SPX earnings anytime soon……I’ll eat something disgusting….

Break to new lows in 2009 below the 2002 lows tells me we are somewhere inside a SECULAR BEAR…how far or how long current rally goes is not of my direct concern…..when the game is over…..how low will be.

Duratek

BPNYA


FAMOUS BEAR TURNS BULLISH

LINK HERE TO JIM GRANT ARTICLE

He makes quite a few assumptions. Makes no mention of contracting credit or massive debt overhang

D

STRONG GOV RESPONSE TO CREDIT CRUNCH DESTINED TO FAIL

LINK TO SERIES PART 5 by STEVE KEEN "HARD BEING A BEAR" I highly reccomend reading this abstract.

In a nutshell, the GOV/FED response to the CREDIT CRUNCH has been to try and reliquify, put stimulus back into the economy and get back to "normalized" growth whereas we would be creating jobs, demand is stimulated.

It has been shown when this is done to solve a "credit crunch" when DEMAND has declined, the STIMULUS usually perks us back up.

HOWEVER, we haven't even BEGUN to address the true reason as to what is happening. SO the money it was decided (by GS and friends?) was to go mostly directly to the banks instead of to the public sector, maybe the banks FEEL better, but they're sitting on the reserves and lending is declining. In the meantime, very LITTLE stimulus is getting to where it is needed, and most firms in trouble (and empoying workers in THIS COUNTRY!) cannot gain access to funds, and many will fail, and many will lose their jobs.

The source of our CRISIS is a " DEBT GLUT" of which the world in terms of size has NEVER SEEN BEFORE. AND MY FRIENDS to my best ability to grasp the real issues, I don't think we have made much headway in dealing with that issue and have LONG WAY TO GO TO GET TO HISTORICAL NORMS.

En route to the solution proposed to BUSH and now OBAMA from the INSIDE CROWD...self serving bitches, helps them,not us! and so we are wasting precious time and resources as we print ourselves to OBLIVION possibly setting the table for loss of our MOST PRECIOUS STATUS WORLD'S RESERVE CURRENCY. Why do you think we have been able to get away with it so far without having those lending us revolt and flee our debt? HOW could we issue SO MUCH DEBT and only see 10 yr yields at 3.4%?

IN HISTORICAL perspective we are LIKE MT OLYMPUS in debt now compared to SEA LEVEL of the 1930's DEBT CRISIS.

WHAT in someone's name is our answer to this? KLUNKERS and CASH INDUCEMENTS to take on biggest debt of all homes.....lead a Consumer to purchase but can't make him spend....after near 70 years of credit debt expansion is it finally time for that OTHER CYCLE? credit contraction? HARD to imagine EXPANDING PE multiples for most shares under this phenomenom.

AT $80 SPX profits X 20 (expensive) multiple you could ALMOST see a SPX near 1500-1600...so what I ASK happened in 2007? at the height of its rise.....stocks stopped dead in their tracks....the debt game was coming unraveled.

I think we are back to $20 earnings....hey even if we rise to $50 SPX....X reasonable multiple of 15 that implies a SPX at 750. I am not sure if the SPX 500 even collective earnings that register? I saw one chart maybe under $20? so next qtr they will dbl? WILL THEY COUNT THE BANK EARNINGS? but with fuzzy math/ (no mark to market acct)

It is my belief that we are on a berathing device and once taken off the repsirator of stimulus and manipulation and quantitative easing, the economy will resume it's slow to downward trajectory and all this time we could have been ADDRESSING the REAL PROBLEMS would have been wasted.

And my friends, what happens if we do dip again, what CONFIDENCE would anyone have of current measures to come to the rescue? The money SHOULD HAVE come DIRECTLY to those who needed it most.

My friends, I own a business, retail office furniture, what good does it do me to be SO pessimistic? do you really thnk I LIKE being of bearish sentiment? in the 90's I was UBER BULLISH....because I should have been...until time to get out in 2000, which I DID....luckily or otherwise.

DO YOU really think the AMERICAN CONSUMER can take on UBER DEBT LOADS from their current situation LARGE ENOUGH to impact our economy?

Somehow, someway...the HISTORIC MT OLYMPUS of debt MUST be dealt with....inflating it away would be preferred to default and DEFLATION, but I am unsure this result is possible.

Understand please what WE ALL are up against, an EPIC HISTORIC COLLOSAL TIDAL WAVE TSUNAMI of DEBT, and adding to this is not a solution....and is why IMHO when stimulus is removed, when QE ends.....so "might" this rally....castles made of sand slip into the sea...eventually.

SLeep easy, those who pushed us over the edge will be resting soundly in their mansions and many more will recieve $BILLIONS in bonuses for job well done.

SSEC (Shanghai mkt) is in nasty correction phase off again last night approaching the 20% correction level,beware is forwarned.

GOLD UP SHARPLY..US $ down to 76.11 as I post 9:43......enterring an abys with only 3% $ bulls?...yikes.....things are looking up.....for some things....

LINK " TOP 10 IN DISTRESS

Duratek

AGREE TO DISAGREE BDI DIVERGES


Monday, September 21, 2009

MONDAY CHART PM WRAP "2007 TOP"


Transports and financial unwinding gave me the warning I needed, but in real time it takes time to concede a top is in, one method I use is the 50/200 cross, we currrently are in bull mode as they have crossed up. This will not tell us when it tops nor how far it can go, initially we are look ing at FIB ratios.....the 50% is one of them......many think we'll get there.
If you ask me, this 2007 TOP looks rather benign, THE TOP was not drawn out affair...no clue there. SUbsequent attempts to rally did leave it short each time and we begin to see a pattern of lower highs. ALSO NOTE VIX IN DEC was 22.50.
Can't get in at bottom, can't sell the top (general statement), try and ride sweet spot.....hardest thing probably is staying with the trend, when is enough enough?
As I think we are mashed into a Secular BEAR trend, I see current move as possible cyclical bull,,,,,one that might have further to go.
If anyone is AFRAID FED will spoil party on WEd...didnt show it today.
Duratek

SHORT Term Considerations


In the box, note the 2 sideways moves. #1 broke to new highs. Box #2 however has broken BELOW the 20 EMA I am using and made 2 lower highs.....MACD is crossed, is this a "change IN charcter?"
Bears some observing and consideration, is just one view. 20 EMA IMHO when moving sideways is LESS supporting to uptrend,,,,retrace more likely if ones coming....we can see area if breaks out likely new highs, nothing more IT technically many are saying that gives worry.
Lots of prinitng has been allocated to bring us out of nose dive. Well, you can see results from MArch...5 months of POS LEI but I noted them declining in # and not big on the stock correlation.
US $ not doing much.....would FED RISK market dislocation WED in statement? boy you wouldn't think so...
D

STOCKS AND THE US $$ "TIED TO THE HIP?"


Buy the dip may still be alive.....can the dollar get off the canvas?
D

CONFIDENT ABOUT FUTURE? MONDAY AM READ


I find this surprising if you consider it in the context of the largest per cent move off a Recessionary low should be a sign things are getting better.
US Consumers need to pay down debt, consume less, world economies need them to go back to their wanton ways. Can the Asian Consumer pick up the ball for US?
I can't see how, they manufacture what we consume, unless they have had change of heart?
A very important FED meeting climaxes oN WED at 2 PM, and the mnay will DISECT every word and the main question is will they signal END to their QE? Would they flat out if they thought it would imperil the rally from MArch? stay tuned.
US $ firming a bit in overnight trading, what is the path of least resistance for the stock market at this juncture?
Go right after the 50% area of entire losses from Bear? or take a breather first? Can the US $ stage an unlikely rally? stay tuned.
Here are some CNN headlines links should be live.....in their HO....FED not likely to signal END of QE....only thing that matters? how the mkt reacts....
Fed not acting like there's a recovery 5:28am: The economy is showing signs that it is emerging out of a deep recession, but don't expect the Fed to change course when it meets this week. More
Now the Fed wants to tame risk. Puh-leeze.
Summers: More regulation needed
D

Sunday, September 20, 2009

WEEKEND READ

ROBERT REICH LINK TO "THE CONTINUING DISASTER OF WALL STREET, ONE YEAR LATER"

LINK TO JOHN CRUDELE "KEEP AN EYE ON THE MARKET BUBBLE"

and

LINK TO JOEL HIRSCHHORN'S " CORPORATE CORRUPTION IS KILLING AMERICA"

If true, last Fridays options expirationwas a setup to take out even more BEARS who thinking SEPT was going to be the month of pain it usually can be, and that BIG BANKS like GS make tons of money selling insurance in the forms of options puts and calls.....couldn't resist the temptation....

Does that now set up going into the next opex a turn to where the ship is very one sided...long side. Without even one 10% correction and over 50% gains.....little froth taken out, bases built and there is NO profit until a sale is made.

We also know very few dollar bulls left and since MArch the weak dollar and strong market have been joined at the hip, IMHO setting the market up for a retracement of some kind...even if brief, even if not breaking the bull mode...this would be quite ordinary.

If we could wind back the clocks.....who wouldn't wish the huge BAnks/Financials had stayed with the game plan of using SAVINGS to LOAN MONEY and make it on the spread? INSTEAD of a market now DOMINATED by these behemoths "too big to fail" playing a game of craps with OTHER peoples money, with a I got your back FED....who could resist?

WHO allowed AIG into the gamblers den? If the basic landscape remains the same, until we get some control over the too big to fail players.....what we have been subjected to since 2000 IMHO is bound to keep repeating itself.

And why are certain practices in favor of these BIG players allowed to continue?

Duratek...have a great FBALL SUnday and great week.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

THE UNWINDING AND DELEVERAGING OF THE ECONOMY

ALBERT EDWARDS "CREDIT CRUNCH IS NOT RECEDING" If haven't, worth a read.

For now, the massive liquidity being applied I think in an effort to reverse this unwinding can only delay it....that said, the rise in the world stock markets is where it all seems to be going....not a bad thing if you're long and had missed most of last 2 bears.....not too many can say that.

Not everyone thinks we need a 'TEST" of a bottom, and the PE and DIV yields in 2002 being more like top (as is now) did not stop a great cyclical bull into 2007.

This merry-go-round is not going to stop up and down, until we do deal with the delevergaing and an answer is not to try an lever up again...or prop up...there's no running away from this cyclone.

Duratek

New Leaf, New Day, New Beginning

I am very satisfied in how my blog is unfolding, but In my mind, it tells me I must work harder to do better in what I share. And recently my own personal experience has put additional pressure on myself and also to keep uo this medium. Yes, I have been feeling it good down in retail land and from here forward I will do my best, for you and myself to bring you my opinion with too many 4 letter words (yikes) and try to add more balance to my views.

Honestly, I am only here to try and help open some minds, get people to ask questions and get involved in their finances and view of the world. NO ONE can take place of a GOOD FINANCIAL ADVISOR, so don't do anything until consulting one....but it could be helpful to be more knowledgable,be more proactive....and ask questions about how they have you allocated...if in the market....I'm not here to run your business...just to educate and share that's all.

I am a BULL AT HEART, hard to believe huh Manute? I was VERY ACTIVE in the 90's, but friends since the 2000 top have we made much headway? no we're way off the highs.

That said, when we have these BEAR MARKETS, be READY to ACT when companies yoU KNOW with PROVEN TRACK RECORDS sell at rediculous prices, again consult with your advisor, but sure make your own list too. It just doesn't pay to have on a bear suit every damn day....

Some of good, smart friends had no problem putting money to work this rally....they know the economy isnt great, but they saw value and opportunity, and too much pessimism.....

SO understand me bullish readers, we are on same side, I dont want to see you LOSE any money....if I sound the alarm, I could be off my rocker....but give it some thought and be ready to make adjustments...consult when unsure your advisor.

2000-2003 bear actually saw VALUE LINE hit new highs, gold ran....always something getting the money flow friends.

More charts....I like to share with you what I observe. LESS RANTS...maybe a few....haaa

Links to good reads....it will take you off my site but when you get to story print it read it at your leisure, come back for more. I have 10 new articles Im reading now...yeah headlines not so uplifting...but that's me the Contrarian,,,if I was like everyone else why come here? I have my own style.

OK I see warning signs, but tops usually take time to form....I will try to show this later. V shaped from MARCH seems unlikely but as it stands that's what we have.

Maybe data down the road will show why....and if it doesn't you know what will happen....

I still have serious fundamental doubts......I don't think we're out of the woods. But market action is what it is, and the Bears are way on the defensive for now.

US $ Is still key IMHO, next week could get volatile, rising VIX could lead to lower prices, and end of QE if mentioned by FED, "MAY" initially worry mkt.

Have great week go Ravens

Duratek

MARKET CHANGING EVENTS COMING?

Market changing events? WED FED....will they mention END OF QE? will mkt shudder at that? will $ rally? 3% bulls is all left....no Einstein needed to think that will get corrected.

Sept 25th Congressional hearing about FED "where did the fing money go?"
CAN they be made to tell? What will any light shown here do?

JOBLESS RECOVERY? friends, how in g-ds name can we have MUCH if any economic LIFT with 7 Million PLUS not doing their normal consuming? WILL the remaining consumers make up for that come XMAS? enough to help retailers? I ask how could they? 7 mil is 7 mil that is also 7 MIL NOT sending moolah to 401k's....there are LOTS of reasons for lower volume some of them NOT GOOD NOT BULLISH

SHits been turned on its head, with historic intervention how can we look at things the same way as we have?

If US $ RALLIES then this rallymay be over.....
If I get energy, I will post later or tomorrow a close up look at 2003 lows and 2007 top, we already know that MARCH was a V shaped zootz.....of which maybe the muscle FED put into it deserved, but not the revival results.....NO question less worse....some improving....cannot continue if hand of GOV (klunkers, home credit) FED (quatitative easing etc) is LIFTED.

We know comments from FED "Recession likely ended in July" OCT was to mark end of FED games....will they signal this WED in their statement? I am thinking they MIGHT, but then again.....they should know the market prefers they do not. IMHO

D

SAT POST " MY MOST RECENT CHART W/O EMOTION"


*click to enlarge
After yesterdays rant about how we've been bent over litterally by the establishment and how the IN CROWD is laughing their asses off at us all, how they got away with stealing our money and futures of our children, how they got it so hardly anyone can figure out what happened....and how no one that knows can be made to divulge anything.....until it does, none of that enters into direction of the stock market. In fact back in 1997 is really when economy peaked, but you know what happened to stock prices next 3 years!
Last word, main difference IMHO as to NOW and THEN is that we had MAJOR segments of our economy we could goose, and had room in our home equity lines, debt to GDP ratios and such we could continue to spend spend spend.....at some point friends, we MUST take a breather and head back to historical norms in lots of places....I think THAT part has begun...how it plays out in stock prices is another thing, if indeed, as is proven in NAZ (more than 50% from 2000 highs), NIKK (70% off highs of 20 years ago), DOW (lower than 10 years ago) we can go thru extended periods of poor market performance, IMHO this is SECULAR BEAR TREND.
SINCE we broke PREVIOUS BEAR 2002 LOWS, this tells me better than EVEN chance DOWN the road, we at BEAR MINIMUM test the lows if not better them.... for now the above chart speaks for itself....I have noted the divergences with other markets, like Shanghai....so some of this BEARS watching and ESPECIALLY the correlation between US STOCK prices and the U S$.....at 3% left loving the dollar, door is open for a MAJOR RALLY NO ONE EXPECTS...this should correspond with a MAJOR correction of the rally from MArch, IMHO
not too many boo hoo....as I said for a period, fundamentals get trumped by action....and action generally has been very bullish....
Duratek

Friday, September 18, 2009

BLOOD AND ROSES

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,druck-648833,00.html its all coming up roses right?

WE have FED meeting next WED, WILL they signal end of QE? will markets like that? I mean shit the Recession is over.....

D

CANCER VILLAGE


"A lake near Da Bao Shan in the northern part of China's Guangdong province turns reddish brown after the water was contaminated for years August 27, 2009. It is highly unusual for people to contract cancer at tender ages, but not in the villages around Da Bao Shan, one of China's largest mine that produces lead, zine, cadmium and other heavy metals."
REUTERS/Bobby Yip
That's progress for you
D

Thursday, September 17, 2009

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN A BUBBLE BURSTS


The financial debt bubble (credit bubble, housing bubble) that popped in 2007 was 10X the naz bubble...like historic bubblishis....see you in 10 years
D

WHERE OH WHERE HAS OUR GOOD MONEY GONE?

Good Billions After BadAs the Bush administration waned, the Treasury shoveled more than a quarter of a trillion dollars in tarp funds into the financial system—without restrictions, accountability, or even common sense. The authors reveal how much of it ended up in the wrong hands, doing the opposite of what was needed.
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/10/bailout200910

Does it IRK ANYONE that the FED has not, will not come clean or even admit they freakin know where ALL THAT MONEY WENT?

New POOL Hank?

http://railfax.transmatch.com/ LINK SHOWS YOU ANY TALK OF THRIVING ECONOMY PUT TO REST

Previous article explains we have accumulated debt as % of GDP to tune of OVER 350% a WILD HISTORIC HIGH. In 1929 it was 265% of GDP and look what happened then?

This shit appears in INNING 1 , well is it even unwinding .....so...I am so sorry if I dont see underpinnings that create a lasting sustainable thriving well balanced economy. It now takes QUITE a bit of $'s to create even ONE of GDP

D

LEADING INDICATORS?


LEI fell to a bottom into 2000 bull top, only to RISE during 2001-2003 BEAR. THEN fell again between 2003- 2007 BULL HIGHS, and now rising again.
I ask you, if LEADING INDICATORS, and they tend to drop during a bull mkt, then what does that tells us about future?
D




PHILA FED UP


* Note it also bottomed in 2000? there was no correlation to the coming bear mkt then. ALSO it tiopped and began falling in 2003?? beginning of bull
D

CLAIMS JUST LOOK AT THE INCREDABLE IMPROVEMENT!

by: Walter Kurtz August 19, 2009 about: The US consumer credit continues to fall, showing a reduction for a fifth straight month. From CNN: Total consumer borrowing sank a seasonally adjusted $10.3 billion, or 4.9%, to $2.503 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve. (contraction of credit does not lead to robust expansion)





WE are STILL at 4 wk moving avg above 550,000 claims, this is still WELL ABOVE the worst in 2001 !!




This is being sold as PROOF of recovery? excuse the bleep out of me, My standards are a bit higher....




Continuing claims actually increased and look at the level it is holding at my goodness folks...if 2001 felt bad imagine how unemployed feel now?

Unlike 2001 we have HUGE UNDEREMPLOYED sector and it is said using U-6 measure it closer to 17%.....includes people working part time who desire full time, and people forced to take jobs of much lesser degree than previous....being paid a lot less.


Understand that almost ALL GOV data goes thru a time machine and gets seasonably adjusted.....whatever that means.


"It is not going to be a pretty picture in 2009," James Chessen, the trade group's chief economist for 18 years, said in an interview. "The dramatic loss of jobs will have a huge impact on the ability of people to meet their debt obligations. This is one of the toughest environments we have ever seen."
Folks, the data I present is done so to put, yes a wonderful rally, in perspective. I do not know how much further it will run, I have posted some potential targets, but IMHO even if was to last for years....we've already seen north of 54% gains.....if are indeed the new ZOMBIE NATION.....because GOV and FED just fed us more of the same elixr as they always have....they can't pick which boat floats.....sooner or later have to deal with real issues, I have shown what Japan has gone thru last 20 years...markey barely 25% of what it was...at top.
Now can a manipulated perception become reality?
that's a good question I cannot answer. If I play long I Like to ADD or begin exposure as price comes down to supportive MA's I use and finds support.....it hasnt done so according to my methods.
There's always some kind of business going on, but for now there just isn't enough of it. And you can only cost cut so far. With employment and housing as it is, can we expect COnsumer to spend our way out of this? And I have shown how loans outstanding have been falling....credit is contracting....and those who SAVE....get nothing for deposits of which if they did get some kind of return couldn't they use THAT INTEREST PAID to SPEND INTO ECONOMY? what's wrong with that?
Not what the powers that be want to promote....more spending in an already maladjusted economy from Consumers trying to repair themselves and stay solvent.....
WHAT KIND of pricing power do companies have? I see the rally, I saw it coming, it is strong as hell....it has taken NO breather....the base is thin and untested.....GL to all...I pray many of you can be made whole....at some point to do that you have to turn it into a number on your ledger....so let it ride? do you if long have exit strategy? or do you just hold no matter what?
Have you raised ANY cash to give yourself some leverage?
D

AM DATA :CNBC'ing THE DATA


"building permits are SOARING" HELOOOO the HUGE pardon my English ramp came from "APT DWELLINGS" you see the avg American is being foreclosed on and has to now live in APT house.
LOOKIT how far DOWN we have come, is this insane? any move up if offered to you as a % move is going to sound juicy....but then look at this chart for some reality...this is some bust....looks like a Depression to me or the most severe recession in our history especially as it relates here

D

REAL MONEY RALLY


DOW EXPRESSED IN GOLD.....boy rally takes on different picture doesn't it? ANY BOOB can print money and call it a rally....gold always rats them out.....our $$ falls to that of confetti
D

HAS LTBH WORKED HERE PAST 20 YEARS???


*This is what happens when you create a ZOMBIE state as we are doing, propping UP the living dead they will FEAST on the flesh of our productivity and they will crush our spirit.
Have these idiots running things leanred a damned thing from anybody? OBVIOUSLY NOT!!! IMHO
Boy, yes, there were and we're in one of those fantastic miracle amazing rallies, but my friends are we going to end up like this chart???
Read ANdy XIE piece I linked to a few posts back. You ask me why aren't Banks lending? Because they are SICK, PROPPED UP, have mnaipulated earnings, bad shit left on the books at near full value....are not dealing with the real problems still saddled with. Andnow our GOV is taking on DEBT and DEFICITS like the TITANIC did water....how did that end?
When this rally FADES, in a day, in a month, in a year, whenever....I think we could end up like this chart until we actually fix the problem.
Printing money, creating Zombies is that the fix? GOLD is $1120 an ounce 10 year yields around 3.4% US $ index near 76.00 it has lost almost half its value from 2001 highs (near 120.00) as the US $ FALLS and STOCKS RISE is that making you richer? or destroying the $$'s you hold?
The dow expressed in gold will show much different picture
D

ZOMBIE ECONOMY


As with Japan, a chart to follow, we have PROPPED UP FAILING businesses and the gov has bought into most of them.
The TOO BIG TO FAIL have gotten even too much bigger to fail. You have to love the $10 Billion in bank bonusses that will go out.....do you believe what you see, what THEY are telling you?
With my NIK chart you will see what happens when GOV creates a ZOMBIE STATE. If you think anything important has actually changed you are ZOMBIE dead wrong.
If we weren't maladjusted before we certainly are now! ANd the GOV has piled on DEBT and DEFICITS like there is NO tomorrow.......only NEW TOILET" paper has been printed and debt monetized to FIX our issues? please.

D

BULL MARKET? VOLUME IS COLLAPSING


Lots of annotations here, but I made comments while back on last bull market. We had nice blast off at bottom, but as we have gone along, volume has continued to dissapate, this is not normal bull personality, volume tends to increase and expand as more and more get on board.
You can also observe how the low was tested forming a SOLID BASE to rise from, this bullish action now is all MOMO DRIVEN.....and could collapse at anytime, IMHO.
A pullback that tests bottom IMHO is one that would not have us looking back anytime soon.
We had plenty of time last bull to position ourselves and make some good, less risky money. The persistant rise on low volume has me questioning this rally.
It's relationship to the falling US $ is one it hasn't had before. This kind of move would seem to be saying, growth? hell yeah and lots of it......IMHO not what you would expect from a financial credit debt bubble bursting.
D

INVERSE RELATIONSHIP US $ AND MARKETS


US $ has lost support, is it down to the lows now? at some point this will be a problem....
D

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

"WHAT WE CAN LEARN AS JAPAN'S ECONOMY SINKS"

http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-09-16/110251471.html Andy Xie

Folks we have PAPERED OVER the Banking problems, nothing much has changed.....they go to discount window for free, buy the bonds at 3.4% and collect the dough....so they can get healthy? but not MUCH incentive to make loans to you or me.

A simple accounting TRICK (end of Mark To Market accounting) has made, so it would seem, all those bad loans, well disaapear or reaapear at 90% of face value.....Houdini sit down or is that Rasputin? Again I will argue to last breathe any Bank profits are a myth and a lie...ONLY the FED is buying that POS paper? NO LIQUID market for them? 9 of 10 home loans now from GOV ENTITIES??? some for little dough down again!???? shesshh

Smart people.....with LESS money...what is left to repoof? what is left to influence? stocks

My friends, from the worst financial crisis in history, from the most overbloated debt in history and as % of GDP......we get the highest % rally from a Recession in thehistory of the stock market? well YES

D

looking for love in all the right places


Another good day for the markets, only the Transports felt left out for the most part. Let's depart from our usual fundamental reasoning and see if we can find a LOGICAL topping area for this rally, and this is one possible interpretation.
Click to enlarge, chart is self explanatory. Most of my trader friends, who don't believe the hype, but do like to take a ride now and again no matter, have been paring back.......some have left the party not wanting to "leave it on the table again" IT'S not a profit until you sell.
Not many signs of MAJOR TOP from this rally, some warning signs creeping in, and the fact only mild breathers taken leave the market open for increased volatility going forward....it is pricing in some major good economic future, IMHO
Looking at MA's TA it's hard to argue...what's the problem dude? Overstaying the party, knowing when enough is enough is a good skill to own....especially IF, IF this is not a beginning of a MAJOR NEW BULL MKT. ANYTHING is possible, well it could be, I have voiced my doubts.
Loking back again at my 2002-2003 study, the bottom had a beautiful back test in 2003, the SPX actually coming close to previous bottom....off she went...not this time NO TEST just V....the DATA doesn't back up a V, but so far we got one.
Short term tresuries should be screaming higher, yet they yield next to nothing....BRAINIAC THE ORACLE NOW FINALLY BUYING (lately his timing sucks) while BILL GROSS the bond king adds heavily to bonds...the most in last 5 years!
If the "people on the sidelines" in cash, mostly in MM;s.....is this the dumb money? or will it turn out to be prudent move even though to this point lots of crow sandwhiches.
Home sales of reg priced homes not doing that great, most after the cheaper foreclosed ones...tax credit running out in NOV.
GOLD is soaring, is the FED risking inflation ? why isnt it reflected in BONDS?
(economic revival)
My nephew just came by talking to me...he works for me.....we're trying to HOLD ON HERE in retail ville office furniture.....it has been BRUTAL....sorry some of my pessimism stems not just from I read and investigate, much of what I share here, some I cannot....but with my own 2 eyes....and ears......I'm sorry folks I dont see it here...when I DO prey g-d I'll tell you.
Game last weekend, NO KC press corps in the press boxes NONE NDADA.....budget cuts...no travel and this is last week.....that's pretty current.
HOW do you see Consumer is back in the box, in the saddle when desire for loans was cut by $200 Billion since JUly?
ALL those idle ships all over the world....did the Recession end in July?
Are all those underwater homes all of a sudden worth what people paid? Yet deliquencies continue to GROW in the credit card world, where most went to buy things as no place left...
BANKS TIGHTENING NOT LOSSENING standards......so credit is CONTRACTING...NOT EXPANDING
DIscussing with some stck friends...Jeff Cooper sees this all is part of a 60 yr cycle began in 1949........2009......
Maybe tomorrow I'll wake up and see I was so wrong, and all kinds of greend shoots are growing out of my ass....for now I see scorched earth and a lot of paper tinder covering it all up
D

GHOST ECONOMY

http://www.zerohedge.com/print/20094 Remember that ghost ship post....zero hedge has uncovered some more info, you really need to see this.

A bull may be a bull and Im happy for everyone whose 401K etc is doing better......but friends all I want is for our future to be based on SOUND ECONOMICS, real change.....not the BS I think we're seeing, getting, hearing.....for me, something doesn't add up here....a few somethings

Lending is DOWN.....savings rising, so consumer behavior is on the change, 10 yr yield is 3.4%....gold soaring above $1,000 US $ in the tank......few jobs available, 7.4 MILLION not the consumers they once were....we have PAPERED over the real issues.....up up and away

VIX still clinging to weekly support line, just barely

D

DID YOU KNOW

SPX 1060 is here....oddly (?) Transports now not at new high for move....keeping an eye on this situation.

LINK HERE TO INSIDER SELLING if anyone should know what is going on they should....

LINK TO MISH'S BLOG credit card defaults continue to rise...

Joseph Stiglitz WHAT WENT WRONG 1 YR LATER LINK

Duratek