Wednesday, September 30, 2009
From the Editors of American Banker
Insolvency of DIF Likely to Last Years
WASHINGTON - The FDIC on Tuesday said the DIF is headed to insolvency and will stay there for at least three years. Rather than rebuild it immediately to the statutory 1.15% reserve level, the agency plans to meet its liquidity needs by raising $45B from banks' prepaying the next few years' worth of premiums.
HEY THEY DIDNT MANIPULATE THIS MANUTE?
9:46am:U.S. Sept. Chicago PMI falls to 46.1% from 50.0%
Morning MSM comments...."Consumer is recovering, will go back to spending early 2010"
"home prices are stabilizing, bottoming case/shiller data proves it..." "recovery will be like all recoveries....it's NOT different this time"
How MUCH recovery is already priced into stocks? No mention of fact Consumer Confidence fell last report and is at RECORD LOWS? considering mamoth historic rise in stock prices?
No mention $8K credit to first time home buyers make BULK of new purchases in data? That higher priced homes just SITTING THERE, NO ACTION? WITHOUT STIM what then recovery?
No mention near $trillion put into banking system with little or no regard to how it would be used and that maybe that fueled current rally?
Why keep saying how gerat it's getting when we are far from out of the woods? IMHO AM employment data MIGHT be market moving, coming at 8:30 will this be too seasonally adjusted?
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
As recent post suggested, the FED has become the lender of first and last resort....9 of 10 mortgages connected to a GSE....where did they get the money?
What is succintly wrong here is THEY DON'T GET IT.....this is not an inventory crisis, or over build crisis or any of those that respond well to even MORE stimulus.
WE CHOKED on TOO MUCH CREDIT, TOOMUCH DEBT and hardly anyone is taking responsability for it.
When the FACTS show contracting credit, falling rail shipments, falling BDI (even if more ships online), near depression levels historic lows in Consumer confidence. NO more availability of home equity loans, stagnant incomes, 7 M fewer employed…and so on…WTF??? Recovery?
DID the rally base itself on a quick fix to all of this? Or is it based on huge injections of money printed out of thin air? The case for us bulding a sustainable economy from printing money is that thin.
Here is excerpt mainly to help you find it, it will take a moment of work but worth it, just scroll down to comment # shown here:
by London Banker on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 01:18#82175
"I posted this over at Roubini's blog, but think it probably belongs here too - especially as it represents a nice neat conspiracy theory.
@ HayesGood to see you. I'm still not able to post a blog, but can't resist hanging with the blog buddies here in the comments.
Clearly a great deal of the easy money from QE in US, UK and EU has ended up in speculative momentum in asset markets (equities, commodities, bonds) as a new carry trade. Virtually none of it has gone to financing productive investment or increased retail/commercial lending that would promote consumption/growth in the real economy. The result is a bubble in asset prices blown up by the easy money, with no realistic basis in actual consumer, business or economic fundamentals. As a result, it is clearly unsustainable. When it will burst is anyone's guess.
I think it's a pre-meditated set up that will be burst to achieve a political agenda - just as with the Lehman failure/Reichstag Fire for the Paulson Plan looting. And I think the Fed and PBs are positioning things now to burst the bubble soon - if only to forestall the Audit the Fed Bill. "
The Chinese market began turning down iN AUG, will that be seen down the road as a warning sign ignored? Or will we keep just laughing it off, and keep following the flow of liquidity whose main objective is to reinflate assets.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Here is LINK to FROM BEAR TO BEAR
2 paragraphs from this inciteful report, and I URGE you to read his complete summary always found towards the bottom of stats many cannot stomach. IMHO Mr Noland has the most eloquant prose and most intelligent and level headed opinions on what has happened and what is likely to be the outcome given current tactics being used. The importance of which I have now just re-read it myself rings to me loud as the Phila Bell.
"And if the nuances of the past twenty years (or more) argue against extrapolation, I contend that the emergence of the Government Finance Bubble argue only further complicates drawing historical inferences. First of all, massive monetary and fiscal stimulus has supported system-wide incomes, spending, and corporate revenues. Policies also incited an unwind of bearish positions and a rather robust, albeit speculative, stock market rebound. Thus far, zero rates and Trillion dollar deficits has created the illusion of normalcy – when it comes to both the markets and real economy. This creates an “analytical” hook that will snare many.
In contrast to previous mortgage-Credit dominated reflations, the evolving global reflation will prove unique for its lack of self-reinforcing dynamics here at home. Before, a Trillion of net additional mortgage Credit would reliably inflate home prices and induce more borrowing, consumption and investment - all of which worked to bolster self-reinforcing confidence in the underlying Credit apparatus and the overall soundness of the general boom-time economy. Today, faith in this private-sector Credit machine is broken, while housing Bubble/consumption psychology is badly shattered......."
Saturday, September 26, 2009
On the other side is my step-father, like wall street bankers GREED and anti-social behaviour is what you get, my mother died almost 14 years ago, married 2nd time to this dude for 25 years and a bypass trust was set up, it was here wishes that her 2 children be left something and was also her wishes the principal amount be left alone, some $650,000 of which the 2 children get 25% and the step fathers son gets the other 50%, just how it was. ALL that really needed to be done was set it up in bonds or balanced funds and the earnings would go right to the remaining spouse.
But that wasn't good enough, he drained the entire amount, every last cent without a care to anyone but himself. When I accidently found out several months ago, well I was pretty pissed off. I had rights after consulting a lawyer, in the end I let it go. Why? because you never know if justice will be served and justice is not free, and the others involved would suffer, my family and my step brothers (he was supposed to be trustee..obviously did shitty job)...I wasn't willing to do that to them...sue of course for negligence. I can let that go.
I offered a solution that would be fair and set things right, the step father would have none of it....a piece of property he bought with most of the money would be put back into some kind of legal document, my stepbrothers family would benefit most.
There would be ONE PRICE TO PAY for not acting like a human being, basically being a bastard my entire time of knowing him, never showing any emotion or caring, not to me not to my stepbrother, his kids, nor my only son....once he even forgot his fing name.
That price would be that unless he made this right, I would NEVER speak to him again, not a single word....ever. Not be in same room , not attend any function or holiday...where he would be there....have nothing further to do with him.
He cut his own son out of his will for spite and left EVERYTHING to his 2nd wife....just an all around decent guy.
Let me tell you something, you do good for people, be a decent person and when you die people will remember you. When you are a shit human being, when you die you are instantly forgotten...like you never were.
WHy do I tell this story? Because this is my blog, and this is where I leave a little bit of myself every day I post in it, and maybe some can relate to this story.
I'm OK, someone finally had to stand up to this creep, and let him know it's not alright to always just think of yourself, and care for no one....that MONEY is the only thing that matters.
Now more than ever money better not be the only thing that matters, because so many of us, our American brothers are up against it. And all we are getting is lip service.....GREED, more GREED and self serving self perpetuating policies.
But guess what? The more this goes on, the madder people get, the more questions they are asking, the more they know they been had and something is wrong.
And the last time I looked, the COnstitution was for the people, by the people....and the people keep saying "DON'T DO THIS, OR DON'T DO THAT...." and the people in office supposed to SERVE US, do what the fuck they want in total disregard for the majority....it isn't that the minority should be dismissed, but you have to have some way to make decisions....and the people are not being listened to....think about that next time you vote.
Think about just voting party line when you realize the laws that protected us were wiped clean first with CLinton, then BUSH and now Obama...is he so stupid and ill informed that he thinks Bernanke is doing a bang up job? DID he not pay attention to the last 4 years of his decisions and public comments? and all the other henchmen out there....taking care of the big boys....the GS's and JPM's of the world.
And what a pleasant morning it is to wake up and know the greedy bastards who started this financial tsunami, IMHO and voted TOO BIG TO FAIL are now TOO BIGGER TO FAIL and wield even more weight and heft....and are busy making their billion trading with FED $$$$'s all to get healthy....to make big profits.....and not to lend the money....and are set up to make BILLIONS more in bonuses...OH I can't wait for the press tour Obama will set up, hope he gets on LEtterman again....
What goes around comes around.
It is possible the GOV must continue to try and inflate and spend while hoping the Consumer and Businesses will fall back into previous habits.....if the GOV tightens its belt maybe no one will spend? I think we got ourselves into one helluva mess with NO EASY WAY OUT.
Think of ALL the ways money used to leak into the economy, the home ATM machines, anyone could get credit.....spend, lend and bend....and build build build...borrow borrow.
Understand this, we reached a point in our PONZINOMICS (remember who coined this if it gets popular haa) where the pile of shit got so high it began to topple.
Some of the unscrupulous bedbugs were seen scurrying out from under the sheets and rocks....but they probably just found another bed....but the game couldn't continue.
FOUL it up they did with putrid rancid paper, most now either owned by the FED (that must stink) or remains HIDDEN from view in a bankd vault somehwere and much thanks to the abrupt end to Mark To MArket accounting....is kept near face value....so THE APPEARENCE of profits and banking health, that little myth can be propogated to the masses.
DID a historic debt bubble fix itself already? since certain rules and laws that protected us were relaxed first in 2000....we have suffered thru 2 burst bubbles and now a housing debt bubble....and the stock market is below its path of almost 10 years ago...we sit with $100 TRILLION of unfunded liabilities (SS and Medicare) and another $12 Trillion public debt....the $12 Trillion and the how many $trillions for the BANK bailouts....we just PRINT to pay.....an obscene finger gestured to the American people.
This is a great country but I keep hearing how we are the richest country in the world....why is it we are the most in debt?
……..”when investors are rushing to get reinvested” (piece of sentence from one of my subs and my response) above relates to oversold condition.
I would like to throw out a hint of caution here, and remember my comments down the road should I be right. (or wrong too haaa) Shorts have scampered to cover, there is NO proof of individuals rushing back in, none.
Most of the so called volume is coming from 5 stocks, the living dead. Most of the volume is coming from program trading and high volume trading. Most of the money for buying is coming from the FED funneled thru the big wall street firms.
The volume has been WANING since the outset of the March lows.
At the March lows in LOCK STEP came the slaughter of the US $, it goes down other things go up.
Insiders selling at historic highs.
There is nothing wrong with sounding a note of caution to your valued readers this may be nothing more than a bear market advance. DO investors need to be in every advance?
This one smells. I wont get a technical SELL until down the road we see lower highs and rallies that don’t carry us to new highs……in the meantime, there is nothing going on the fundamental side to bring us a sustainable economic advance.
*I respect my subs, I don't have to follow lock step, always agree.....and I can still love the service. And yes the mkt can continue t advance in the face of anything logical.....but in my mind....how much higher? hasn't the EASY money been made? Greed may not pay off much longer.
To offer differing views this is what CarL Swneson of decision pt is saying
Aren't the insiders of businesses the ones most likely to SEE the future? why record levels of selling then?
LINK FOR COMPLETE STORY http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/10/news/economy/insider.sales/index.htm?postversion=2009091016
>>>>"It's not a very complicated story," said Charles Biderman, who runs market research firm Trim Tabs. "Insiders know better than you and me. If prices are too high, they sell."
Biderman, who says there were $31 worth of insider stock sales in August for every $1 of insider buys, isn't the only one who has taken note. Ben Silverman, director of research at the InsiderScore.com web site that tracks trading action, said insiders are selling at their most aggressive clip since the summer of 2007. <<<<<
"A fraud disguised as an investment opportunity, in which initial investors and the perpetrators of the fraud are paid out of funds raised from later investors, and the later investors lose all funds invested..."
Friday, September 25, 2009
Maybe we just hit air pocket I don't know, what is the limit of a liquidity based no fundamental asset inflated move?
I'll be IN tomorrow so I'll put something together for this weekend, everybody take it easy.....OH PS....lots of commercial and residential PROPERTY TAX bills coming due......
Updated 24-Sep-09 10:31 ET
About this release
Existing home sales declined 2.7% to 5.10 million homes in August. The decline follows four consecutive months of increasing sales including a jump of 7.2% in July.
The consensus expected sales to continue rallying in August.
The median home price declined 2.1% month-over-month to $177,700.
NAR will probably attempt to spin this report as positive due a sharp decline in the supply of existing homes (-2.1%) in August.
This report failed to showcase any return to strength in the housing market.
The first time homebuyer tax break is expected to end in November and we expect home sales to drop sharply over the next few months. Since the spring, buyers have been rushing out to close on houses before the tax break expires as 30% of homes were purchased through this program.
Beyond the first time homebuyer, the housing market is extremely unstable.
**Yesterday's decline may have seemed tame as in points lost, but that masked underlying weakness as 88% DOWN VOLUME was registered, why there wasn't a greater point loss? the invisable hand? because there weren't many REAL BUYERS ON THE BID
Ask yourself, credit contracting, outside of stimulus not much going on, if so MUCH rides on recovering housing market, above report does not bode well.
END of month play may go on today, but RIMM laid hairball in AH and fell over $9 a share.
I mean after 50% PLUS RALLY it would be nice to get even some SCANT REAL DATA to justify it.
Well, lastly if you think that it's a good idea to just PRINT money to pay for things, as the FED has been doing, I mean we issue the bonds, we print the money, we buy the bonds?
We add the stimulus, we issue the bonds, we print the money? Maybe you can do this for a few Trillion or so (maket goes up, $ goes down....are you better off?) but what about the coming due $100 TRILLION in UNFUNDED liabilities?
I don't like the thought of this end game.....how transparent can you get? did ZIMBABWE print themselves to prosperity? or is it all an illusion?
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Usually extremes beg for correction, it is quite possible that has begun. Yesterday was a new high and low close and a more than a few took notice of that. Brainiacs, the hair all were asking oN CNBC "gee pardner...that was strange, what's up with that?" MY goodness my young astute man, where did you get those smarts? PLEASE share with us more pearls of wisdom that will keep us safe at night.
Bar your door, change the channel. READ AND GET YOUR OWN OPINION or those nitwits will give it to you.
WHAT IF.....a good bit of this rally was funded with bailout money? and instead of lending it out they decided to shop for some SPX'S? isn;t that possible? many are suggesting it....and how about a few stocks making up a ginormous 30% of overall volume on days? same names keep popping up.
Is there a $ carry trade going on? WHERE DID all our money go? WHY isn't someone going to jail? WHY are people still listening to Bernanke? IS that guy Greenspan still around?
Volker suggests bringing back seperation of Banks from financial hokey pokey.
WHY can't banks just be happy making lots of money old fashioned way loaning it to good people and companies? WHAT ASSHOLE thought it would be good idea to let banks become the stock market, use proprietary alogrythms and a few practices maybe they shouldn't be allowed to like see your trades and get in front of them as is suggested....and the high frequency trading.
WHERE are the real reforms? WHY ARE THOSE SAME BANKS NOW EVEN TOO BIGGER TO FAIL?
A false market? greatest rally from BEAR in HISTORY WITH THE LEAST VOLUME INCREASE? I smell a rat.....and for better or worse, I disagree with BUffet, Grant and a whole host of smarter people than me....can you loan me your straight jacket? I know too much and maybe I'm confusing the fatcs from the truth....
Excellent find from one of our posters, so here it is, thank you for finding this.
Pull up a chair and understand how a BULL MKT is actually a BULLSHIT MARKET, and this WILL END BADLY IMHO (in 2003-2007 bull it was the YEN carry trade)
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
SO many smart people, so many experts, saying different things. New lows coming.....POWERFUL BULL MKT is emrging....get on board not too late.....run for the hills...escape.
During a time like this, for myself I can only apply what I DO KNOW.....and act accordingly....no big bets from me.....but I do know this is no way to run a railroad.
Now in 2009 recently Bernanke said..."it is likely the Recession is over...." I'm SURE THIS TIME Bernake telling us the worst is over and up up and away we go is the deal....I mean shit even a stopped watch is right at least twice......
after a 60% short covering, less worse data, liquidity asset inflation ploy, and evidence the deleveraging has just begun and is ongoing....ANY seperation from the FED and STIM TEET will send share prices PLUNGING. IMHO
What I am looking for. A series of lower highs in the indexes that show attempt to rally to NEW HIGHS has stalled....then I'l short the shit out of this deception manipulated false hope rally....of course I don't reccomend any specific action be followed out by anyone reading this...always consult with financial advisor.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
BUBBLE ACTION here folks, you in , you swimming with lemmings and sharks.....and the thought to be exintct puffer fish. ALL THE SAME MARKETS all going up, GOLD, FOREIGN MARKETS (cept SSEC lately) COPPER, CRUDE OIL, of course our beloeved DOW and SPX.....gold fish even... all the same action reeks of a liquidity driven bubble formation....as the US $ toilet tissue stuck on the bottom of your shoe...you can't kick the fing thing off...shoooo....is diving in opposite direction to the DAY it all started in MArch....amazing
SO you will know this f'd up same tired game that keeps messing with us normal folk, you'll know when it ends? and only thing keeping it going is all you buying into it, and well the instigators staying with the program.....no corrections, no dividends....no worries.
Why it's the rally of a lifetime that says it's leading us right ack to the top of where SPX earnings were in a blink of an CYCLOPS eye.....can't you see all those jobs being created? come on I know you can.
OH...you paying close attention to the LEI"??? good thing it's telling you the stock market a HUGE component is going up.
BLS stats on employment? other stuff? ALL effected by games with "SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS"....who knwos what to believe....it ain't that . AFTER ONE YEAR dudes and duettes get DROPPED like a stone from the counting...sure....the number can go DOWN , reason for celebration? as poor bastards w/o jobs who gave up and the GOV gave up on them get roasted at the fire and dropped like hot potato from the counting eyes of the datameisters.
CPI? we dont got no stinkin' inflation! FOOD and ENERGY get dropped out....those rising COMMODITY CHARTS? disregard.....well one thing demand has dropped off cliff, what ever is floating them higher? hmmmm
FED STUCK IN THE SWEET SPOT? yeah more like WET SPOT! AS prices rise for real tings...it dampens demand where these smart fellows are trying to goose....unintended consequences and of course they are genuises (same ones got us in mess too) and will stop what they're doing and do no harm.
BUT, after ALL THE MONEY GIVEN AWAY, thrown from the 'copters...given away and we're not telling who or where.....ZERO interest rates.......what we got folks?
What we got is DECLINING DEMAND FOR DEBT!!!! OOOOPPPS all this hooplah and there is NO proof in REAL WORLD ANYTHING THE FED HAS DONE is sending the troops to the DEBT ALTER.
ALL the poor minyan want to do it seems is to pay DOWN debt from the trough feedings and survive...
SO anyone telling me we're OK, getting OK...excuse me if I don't agree....I live in the real world that seeks equilibrium and a trip back to the norm the bald heads don't want us to get back to.
Castles made of sand, slip into the sea...EVENTUALLY...turn out the light on your way out...
Then keep in mind in 1930 the value was 265%. Reversion to the mean followed for years after.
Then think about what Jim Grant just said. Think about the ONLY expansion in debt is coming at the FED level. Think about the K wave.
Think about for Grants chirp to be right….the level of 375% (already a wild record) would have to rise SUBSTANTIALLY !
Is there enough money in the world to even make it so?
The ONLY conclusion I can make is we are either in a Japan scenario and its only 1990 ish or it’s like 1929-1932 and it’s only 1930 or BOTH.
Someone PLEASE explain to me, how we ramp the shit up, when we already have amazing SLACK? We’ll build even more factories in CHINA?
The remaining employed will feel JIGGY and pick up slack for the more than 7 MIL getting no paychecks? But don’t we even have to do better than that?
If we have $80 SPX earnings anytime soon……I’ll eat something disgusting….
Break to new lows in 2009 below the 2002 lows tells me we are somewhere inside a SECULAR BEAR…how far or how long current rally goes is not of my direct concern…..when the game is over…..how low will be.
In a nutshell, the GOV/FED response to the CREDIT CRUNCH has been to try and reliquify, put stimulus back into the economy and get back to "normalized" growth whereas we would be creating jobs, demand is stimulated.
It has been shown when this is done to solve a "credit crunch" when DEMAND has declined, the STIMULUS usually perks us back up.
HOWEVER, we haven't even BEGUN to address the true reason as to what is happening. SO the money it was decided (by GS and friends?) was to go mostly directly to the banks instead of to the public sector, maybe the banks FEEL better, but they're sitting on the reserves and lending is declining. In the meantime, very LITTLE stimulus is getting to where it is needed, and most firms in trouble (and empoying workers in THIS COUNTRY!) cannot gain access to funds, and many will fail, and many will lose their jobs.
The source of our CRISIS is a " DEBT GLUT" of which the world in terms of size has NEVER SEEN BEFORE. AND MY FRIENDS to my best ability to grasp the real issues, I don't think we have made much headway in dealing with that issue and have LONG WAY TO GO TO GET TO HISTORICAL NORMS.
En route to the solution proposed to BUSH and now OBAMA from the INSIDE CROWD...self serving bitches, helps them,not us! and so we are wasting precious time and resources as we print ourselves to OBLIVION possibly setting the table for loss of our MOST PRECIOUS STATUS WORLD'S RESERVE CURRENCY. Why do you think we have been able to get away with it so far without having those lending us revolt and flee our debt? HOW could we issue SO MUCH DEBT and only see 10 yr yields at 3.4%?
IN HISTORICAL perspective we are LIKE MT OLYMPUS in debt now compared to SEA LEVEL of the 1930's DEBT CRISIS.
WHAT in someone's name is our answer to this? KLUNKERS and CASH INDUCEMENTS to take on biggest debt of all homes.....lead a Consumer to purchase but can't make him spend....after near 70 years of credit debt expansion is it finally time for that OTHER CYCLE? credit contraction? HARD to imagine EXPANDING PE multiples for most shares under this phenomenom.
AT $80 SPX profits X 20 (expensive) multiple you could ALMOST see a SPX near 1500-1600...so what I ASK happened in 2007? at the height of its rise.....stocks stopped dead in their tracks....the debt game was coming unraveled.
I think we are back to $20 earnings....hey even if we rise to $50 SPX....X reasonable multiple of 15 that implies a SPX at 750. I am not sure if the SPX 500 even collective earnings that register? I saw one chart maybe under $20? so next qtr they will dbl? WILL THEY COUNT THE BANK EARNINGS? but with fuzzy math/ (no mark to market acct)
It is my belief that we are on a berathing device and once taken off the repsirator of stimulus and manipulation and quantitative easing, the economy will resume it's slow to downward trajectory and all this time we could have been ADDRESSING the REAL PROBLEMS would have been wasted.
And my friends, what happens if we do dip again, what CONFIDENCE would anyone have of current measures to come to the rescue? The money SHOULD HAVE come DIRECTLY to those who needed it most.
My friends, I own a business, retail office furniture, what good does it do me to be SO pessimistic? do you really thnk I LIKE being of bearish sentiment? in the 90's I was UBER BULLISH....because I should have been...until time to get out in 2000, which I DID....luckily or otherwise.
DO YOU really think the AMERICAN CONSUMER can take on UBER DEBT LOADS from their current situation LARGE ENOUGH to impact our economy?
Somehow, someway...the HISTORIC MT OLYMPUS of debt MUST be dealt with....inflating it away would be preferred to default and DEFLATION, but I am unsure this result is possible.
Understand please what WE ALL are up against, an EPIC HISTORIC COLLOSAL TIDAL WAVE TSUNAMI of DEBT, and adding to this is not a solution....and is why IMHO when stimulus is removed, when QE ends.....so "might" this rally....castles made of sand slip into the sea...eventually.
SLeep easy, those who pushed us over the edge will be resting soundly in their mansions and many more will recieve $BILLIONS in bonuses for job well done.
SSEC (Shanghai mkt) is in nasty correction phase off again last night approaching the 20% correction level,beware is forwarned.
GOLD UP SHARPLY..US $ down to 76.11 as I post 9:43......enterring an abys with only 3% $ bulls?...yikes.....things are looking up.....for some things....
LINK " TOP 10 IN DISTRESS
Monday, September 21, 2009
Now the Fed wants to tame risk. Puh-leeze.
Summers: More regulation needed
Sunday, September 20, 2009
LINK TO JOHN CRUDELE "KEEP AN EYE ON THE MARKET BUBBLE"
LINK TO JOEL HIRSCHHORN'S " CORPORATE CORRUPTION IS KILLING AMERICA"
If true, last Fridays options expirationwas a setup to take out even more BEARS who thinking SEPT was going to be the month of pain it usually can be, and that BIG BANKS like GS make tons of money selling insurance in the forms of options puts and calls.....couldn't resist the temptation....
Does that now set up going into the next opex a turn to where the ship is very one sided...long side. Without even one 10% correction and over 50% gains.....little froth taken out, bases built and there is NO profit until a sale is made.
We also know very few dollar bulls left and since MArch the weak dollar and strong market have been joined at the hip, IMHO setting the market up for a retracement of some kind...even if brief, even if not breaking the bull mode...this would be quite ordinary.
If we could wind back the clocks.....who wouldn't wish the huge BAnks/Financials had stayed with the game plan of using SAVINGS to LOAN MONEY and make it on the spread? INSTEAD of a market now DOMINATED by these behemoths "too big to fail" playing a game of craps with OTHER peoples money, with a I got your back FED....who could resist?
WHO allowed AIG into the gamblers den? If the basic landscape remains the same, until we get some control over the too big to fail players.....what we have been subjected to since 2000 IMHO is bound to keep repeating itself.
And why are certain practices in favor of these BIG players allowed to continue?
Duratek...have a great FBALL SUnday and great week.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
For now, the massive liquidity being applied I think in an effort to reverse this unwinding can only delay it....that said, the rise in the world stock markets is where it all seems to be going....not a bad thing if you're long and had missed most of last 2 bears.....not too many can say that.
Not everyone thinks we need a 'TEST" of a bottom, and the PE and DIV yields in 2002 being more like top (as is now) did not stop a great cyclical bull into 2007.
This merry-go-round is not going to stop up and down, until we do deal with the delevergaing and an answer is not to try an lever up again...or prop up...there's no running away from this cyclone.
Honestly, I am only here to try and help open some minds, get people to ask questions and get involved in their finances and view of the world. NO ONE can take place of a GOOD FINANCIAL ADVISOR, so don't do anything until consulting one....but it could be helpful to be more knowledgable,be more proactive....and ask questions about how they have you allocated...if in the market....I'm not here to run your business...just to educate and share that's all.
I am a BULL AT HEART, hard to believe huh Manute? I was VERY ACTIVE in the 90's, but friends since the 2000 top have we made much headway? no we're way off the highs.
That said, when we have these BEAR MARKETS, be READY to ACT when companies yoU KNOW with PROVEN TRACK RECORDS sell at rediculous prices, again consult with your advisor, but sure make your own list too. It just doesn't pay to have on a bear suit every damn day....
Some of good, smart friends had no problem putting money to work this rally....they know the economy isnt great, but they saw value and opportunity, and too much pessimism.....
SO understand me bullish readers, we are on same side, I dont want to see you LOSE any money....if I sound the alarm, I could be off my rocker....but give it some thought and be ready to make adjustments...consult when unsure your advisor.
2000-2003 bear actually saw VALUE LINE hit new highs, gold ran....always something getting the money flow friends.
More charts....I like to share with you what I observe. LESS RANTS...maybe a few....haaa
Links to good reads....it will take you off my site but when you get to story print it read it at your leisure, come back for more. I have 10 new articles Im reading now...yeah headlines not so uplifting...but that's me the Contrarian,,,if I was like everyone else why come here? I have my own style.
OK I see warning signs, but tops usually take time to form....I will try to show this later. V shaped from MARCH seems unlikely but as it stands that's what we have.
Maybe data down the road will show why....and if it doesn't you know what will happen....
I still have serious fundamental doubts......I don't think we're out of the woods. But market action is what it is, and the Bears are way on the defensive for now.
US $ Is still key IMHO, next week could get volatile, rising VIX could lead to lower prices, and end of QE if mentioned by FED, "MAY" initially worry mkt.
Have great week go Ravens
Sept 25th Congressional hearing about FED "where did the fing money go?"
CAN they be made to tell? What will any light shown here do?
JOBLESS RECOVERY? friends, how in g-ds name can we have MUCH if any economic LIFT with 7 Million PLUS not doing their normal consuming? WILL the remaining consumers make up for that come XMAS? enough to help retailers? I ask how could they? 7 mil is 7 mil that is also 7 MIL NOT sending moolah to 401k's....there are LOTS of reasons for lower volume some of them NOT GOOD NOT BULLISH
SHits been turned on its head, with historic intervention how can we look at things the same way as we have?
If US $ RALLIES then this rallymay be over.....
If I get energy, I will post later or tomorrow a close up look at 2003 lows and 2007 top, we already know that MARCH was a V shaped zootz.....of which maybe the muscle FED put into it deserved, but not the revival results.....NO question less worse....some improving....cannot continue if hand of GOV (klunkers, home credit) FED (quatitative easing etc) is LIFTED.
We know comments from FED "Recession likely ended in July" OCT was to mark end of FED games....will they signal this WED in their statement? I am thinking they MIGHT, but then again.....they should know the market prefers they do not. IMHO
Friday, September 18, 2009
WE have FED meeting next WED, WILL they signal end of QE? will markets like that? I mean shit the Recession is over.....
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Does it IRK ANYONE that the FED has not, will not come clean or even admit they freakin know where ALL THAT MONEY WENT?
New POOL Hank?
http://railfax.transmatch.com/ LINK SHOWS YOU ANY TALK OF THRIVING ECONOMY PUT TO REST
Previous article explains we have accumulated debt as % of GDP to tune of OVER 350% a WILD HISTORIC HIGH. In 1929 it was 265% of GDP and look what happened then?
This shit appears in INNING 1 , well is it even unwinding .....so...I am so sorry if I dont see underpinnings that create a lasting sustainable thriving well balanced economy. It now takes QUITE a bit of $'s to create even ONE of GDP
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Folks we have PAPERED OVER the Banking problems, nothing much has changed.....they go to discount window for free, buy the bonds at 3.4% and collect the dough....so they can get healthy? but not MUCH incentive to make loans to you or me.
A simple accounting TRICK (end of Mark To Market accounting) has made, so it would seem, all those bad loans, well disaapear or reaapear at 90% of face value.....Houdini sit down or is that Rasputin? Again I will argue to last breathe any Bank profits are a myth and a lie...ONLY the FED is buying that POS paper? NO LIQUID market for them? 9 of 10 home loans now from GOV ENTITIES??? some for little dough down again!???? shesshh
Smart people.....with LESS money...what is left to repoof? what is left to influence? stocks
My friends, from the worst financial crisis in history, from the most overbloated debt in history and as % of GDP......we get the highest % rally from a Recession in thehistory of the stock market? well YES
A bull may be a bull and Im happy for everyone whose 401K etc is doing better......but friends all I want is for our future to be based on SOUND ECONOMICS, real change.....not the BS I think we're seeing, getting, hearing.....for me, something doesn't add up here....a few somethings
Lending is DOWN.....savings rising, so consumer behavior is on the change, 10 yr yield is 3.4%....gold soaring above $1,000 US $ in the tank......few jobs available, 7.4 MILLION not the consumers they once were....we have PAPERED over the real issues.....up up and away
VIX still clinging to weekly support line, just barely
LINK HERE TO INSIDER SELLING if anyone should know what is going on they should....
LINK TO MISH'S BLOG credit card defaults continue to rise...
Joseph Stiglitz WHAT WENT WRONG 1 YR LATER LINK