Saturday, October 31, 2009
Nasty reversal day Friday, as it turns out was ANOTHER 90% plus DOWN volume day. As such it may unleash a short term market rebound of which we will monitor the strength....usually lasting a few days to about a week.
The decline so far, feels intense, but it has not taken out on the SPX its OCT lows and is where I established my support BLUE LINE.
That said 1060-1065 is now established as RESISTANCE with its rejection Friday, and that is what I used to take my contrary position Friday for which I was rewarded and now closed out as I posted.
I don't know yet if I will join the other team for a day to catch the pity rebound, I don't think this reaction selling is over yet and it may have been saying, we don't believe your GDP # we REPUDIATE it.
Is the rally from MArch STILL ALIVE? I can be bearish and leave that door open. The strength of the March reaction has convinced some of my trusted resources to conclude this is a primary reaction rally which may have 3 phases. First may be nearing its end, then 2nd phase would require weeding out the dullards and focusing on what is working and this in uptrend.
I don't agree however, I may not agree to sell all, but raising cash levels I think would be a good idea. there are quite afew things that don't jive with historical and reliable indictors, so one that tells me there is no top indicator as yet, may also be unreliable.
SAFETY COME FIRST IMHO, NOT PROFITS.
From historical perspectives the market is overvalued and dividend yields under 2% are pathetic.
The market may decide to rally to new highs for apparently NO REASON at all. I DO NOT have BEAR MKT TA SELL SIGNALS AS YET, these could come, the market appears to have rolled over, but we don't know yet if the BEAR is going to growl in style just yet.
Lots of money sloshing around and almost no place to go safe that provides much YIELD at all.
A VIX hat can rise to 31 in short order is reminder to longs this is NO ONE WAY STREET and buying LOW in MARCH is one thing, buying HIGH and chasing MOMO comes with different set of risk.
MONDAY SET UP....I see couple of possibilities #1 FREAKED OUT MKT capitulates and prices cascade below 1020-1025 area of support I drew. #2 Price fall at open and HOLD THE LINE or rise from get go.....a FALL at open to that line that holds.....would give me my lower risk set up to go long and use are below as STOP LOSS #3 Prices rally in AM to SUCK IN longs then BAMM comes the fade and test of support......that's my game plan.....I think LOWER prices are in order, but some reaction to the 90% FRIDAY may also be in order first.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Not a statement on what is going on. In VERY ST market is getting oversold IMHO VIX had BIG JUMP, but 2 things, that might level off and the other it has broken string of lower highs, folks I DO think something is afoot here. I don't want any posts I make on what I am doing to take away from my overall message and attempt to bring out the truth. But I am trying to appeal to all types of readers so some technical and trade talk will be part of my site.
The market may tank like hell, I may renter but for now I am on sidelines with another nice addition to my account..it feels good.
I may post an updated chart so you see what I am looking at later tonight on SAT....take care.
WHO'S FING BRIGHT IDEA was it to give away TRILLIONS to those who f'd us in the first place? andnow THEY ARE EVEN TOO BIGGER TO FAIL and hold our balls in th epalm of their hand...a tight grip I may add.
Whenever has there been a time where reality and fantasy have such departed?
AT our current rate by next year we will owe as a country almost an entire years of GDP near $14 TRILLION.....OBAMMA said next 10 years another $10 TRILLION to that!
WHO IS going to buy our debt at such LOW yields? HOW is this good for us? How about what we can't even pay for and promised another $100 TRILLION some say? (SS and MEDIC) How's that get paid for?
If all this money thrown down the throats of the insiders on WALL STREET has brought us a REAL GDP OF ZERO when you take out the NON RECURRING THINGS....in that alone thinking of an economy with the HYPE OVER THIS ANNOMOLY of growth.....caused mostly by one off events and stim... what is left going into end of year and beyond?
The Anerican people are the in between the rock and hard place, and not only should it not have been this way.......it shouldn't continue being this way.
How do you get this HUGE MOVE in GDP some of which got there by huge increases (from LOW LOW PLACES) in Exports and Inports when rail and cargo traffic has been in STEEP DECLINE?
My gut tells me the American people have reached a place of distrust and maybe no longer believe in what is handed them.....and realize we've been had.
Some of the bank profits near 80% derived from TRADING? CAN WE PLEASE HAVE OUR PLAIN OLD BANKS BACK?
MAIN gaming was Thursday for ponzimaniacs, SPX break of bearish wedge IMHO not a good sign for market in the ST at least. VOLUME SWOONED on the rise Thrsday compared to the swoon in price and rise in volume on WEd decline.
Is all what it seems? A RALLY based on a mythical creature that doesn't exist ( A US ECONOMY and vibrant GDP) is as a castle made in sand.
I have designated another forray into this time SDS @ $39.66 for those keeping count at home. I am using $39.00 as stop loss, this is 1.5% of capital risked so I figure a reasonable risk/reward play.
I MAY be jumping the gun, but the LIBERTY TAKEN and REASON GIVEN FOR RALLY THURSDAY (GDP) when I read what it consisted of...PURE BS......ONE TIME OFFS....
My friends WHEN WILL THE REAL ISSUES BE TACKLED? AGAIN I am not reccomending any trades to anyone, I think for the time being I just want to be open with what I'm doing andmy record will be here to you and for me to see if my MOJO has come back to me....after along absence.
These trades are managable, and not a bet the house mentality, I am greasing my wheels and trying to get back in the game with more than just my words.
I have not decided as yet my goal on this one, market action may dictate.....action around my trendlines will determine a lot......I may jettison or change this trade at anytime, I will post if I do.....take care in the REAL WORLD you and I Live in......spending less, saving less as expenses increase....7 million lost jobs....all we get is JOBBEd from current in crowd team.
I am sorry to burst anyone's bubble who still thinks we are on the right path to economic recovery, a sustainable course. And to anyone who pays much attention to most gov stats I have some swamp land I need to unload.
AT the core of our issues stands Banks who won't lend but play the roulette wheel and will pay themselves Billions, companies that won't hire and a GOV that is making it more costly to have employees (as those who can pay in have dwindled).
Because of 0% int rates and weak $ energy prices have risen, also effecting food prices. State gov's cannot balance budgets w/o raising taxes or cutting services.
AFter all that has been done to goose housing mkt, sales fell last month and so did prices paid!
ZOMBIE BANKS act as if mortgages held on or off books are near face value.
Consumer sentiment is near the LOWEST LEVELS ever recorded even as stock prices near their rally highs. IN a COnsumer driven economy, with over 7 million jobs lost since 2007, with little or no home equity not to mention all those UNDER WATER, this divergence with past recoveries of sentiment near 90.00 doesn't make sense.....except to say some monkey business is about all that is being conducted.
WHAT GOOD IS A GDP REPORT when you factor in one off events and a teet suckling GOV STIMULUS AIDED ZING? WE are talking sustainable recovery, where is that?
Thursday, October 29, 2009
This is a great website here is link
YOU can run but can't hide......I am looking for R betwwen 1060-1075
That's it, my post last night covered my stance, and let's see what happens...ANY rally IMHO will NOT take us to new highs.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
AP - In this photo made Oct. 26, 2009, a new development of townhouses is seen in Wakefield, Mass. Sales ...
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales fell 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 402,000 from a downwardly revised 417,000 in August. Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a pace of 440,000.
LEAK OF GDP TOMORROW? LINK HERE
Notice how in 2000 (market top) cap goods bottomed. And now in 2009 a marginal increase from its current bottom. In 2000 as the cap goods rose the STOCK MKT did not bottom until 2002-2003 !
This may be the LONGEST RUNNING RECESSION (they said it was over) that wasn't a DEPRESSION......it's not?
The US $ seems to have found some kind of bottom, same time mkt began to weaken.
In the report the EX cap goods was AGAIN revised DOWNWARD (no one will be watching) by a large .4% !
I bought a LEAF BLOWER from LOWES, found them to be the most helpful, good price....Husgavarna $199 gas powered.....couldn't start the bitch aghhhhhh...went over to my handdy retired neighbor LOU, he did everything I did, man I was headed back to the store....to return I KNEW these 2 cycle engines would be a major PAIN!!
STill nothing, he opens gas tank cap....then screws it back on, then BINGO we got ignition,,,,what the heck? IT NEEDED AIR in the mixture....who knew? How many people could be saved...?
I switch back to tomorrows GDP...next week I think FEd meeting wooooooooo, I think YOU KNOW the score...and we await the decision of the markets. REMEMBER it usually don't happen all at once.....I am thinking if we get sharp downer, I will take profits if I get close to my goal for this trade short......boy and to go long I need to seperate myself from reality and just decide from charts.....watch the VIX to see if it holds this area....GL
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- "A key measure of consumer confidence continued to slip in October, with consumers' gauge of the current economic situation falling to a 26-year low, a research group said Tuesday.
The Conference Board, the New York-based research group said its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 47.7 in October from an upwardly revised 53.4 in September.
Economists were expecting the index to increase to 53.5, according to a Briefing.com consensus survey. The figure, which is based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. households, is closely watched because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.
YEAH!! I'm coaching my son and rec BBAL again this year, 13+....boy they wont listen will they?
Last point of evening, is that today was a WEAK response to that 200 pt reversal we had Monday (Mondays had been bullish..even if weak ass volume)
most recent essay link here
ANother large gain out of the gate basically neutralized by the close. But for thr TRANSPORTS it was another story breaking down another 1.8%. Yesterdays NYSE decline had 88% down volume and go along with prior 2 90% down days and no 90% up days during that stint, it feels like nature of market is changing.
My technical work using a blend of indicators and a moving avgerage just signalled a sell for the Transports or more importantly it has broken down from a line held since MARCH LOWS....nothing is 100%.
Consumer confidence sank again, now understand this, it should be DOUBLE where it is now in a NORMAL RECOVERY BY NOW!!! I would argue that given the 60% stock market V shaped rally cry, boy that doesn't fit.
One of my subs measures of market strength has fallen back to near its lows of March, yet near this rally top.....this isn't something you would expect to see in a "new bull mkt"
Don't fight the FED they say, to some extent the march lows were extreme and enough fear and stim to make some stupendous profits....I just don't think I see anything that warrants LTBH strategy.
Now who doesn't expect a HOT BIG JUICY GDP # Thursday? The problem is the banks are still SICK and credit is contracting.....the market will find fair value in due time. The # to ME doesn't mean JACK....it's mostly make believe anyway...reaction is key...has volatility returned?
Forecasters predicted a higher reading of 53.1"
HEADLINES: Case-Shiller Home Price Index Improves
"The Case-Shiller home price index continued to show improvement in the housing sector as prices seem to have stabilized. The 20-city composite index was expected to show a 11.9% year-over-year decline in August. Instead, prices fell 11.32%, the lowest year-over-year decline since the beginning of 2008."
If this is progress, I don't want to see the other scenario....
"WASHINGTON – It's about to become official: The recession is over — but not the pain.
The government will release figures this week expected to show that the economy has awakened from its deepest slump since the 1930s and is in the early stages of a recovery. But the following week, the government will issue another set of figures expected to show unemployment continuing to rise toward and possibly above a clearly recessionary 10 percent.
How can both be possible?
The government releases third-quarter Gross Domestic Product figures on Thursday. Many forecasters say they will show GDP growing at an annual rate of about 3 percent, validating a widely held belief among economists that the recession ended in June or July."
IMHO the market already knows GDP will show near 3% growth in the 3rd quarter, much of this will come directly from STIMULUS provided in the form of KLUNKERS FOR CASH and $8,000 HOME CREDIT, and STOCK MARKET RALLY, I believe this is a one off event and does NOT reflect REAL economic sustainable activity or growth.......
Even the BULLISH ECRI report (shhhhhh) as mentioned recently in INvestor's Business Daily showed the last 2 weeks a CONTRACTION in their LEI.
106 banks have failed SO FAR
More than past decade and a half, and it is pretty plain these REGIONAL BANKS won't get propped up these Consumer and Small Business friendly loaners!
NAH, If you aren't deemed "TOO BIG AN ASSHOLE TO FAIL" you can go screw yourself, what a BEAUTIFUL PLAN dear readers, what an EVIL BEAUTIFUL PLAN! Now these HUGE BANKS have been turned into BLACK HOLES and have all the BENNIES our money can buy, backing by the FED and GOV, and nothing stands in their way, ALL LOSSES COVERED by the American taxpayer.....however many of them are left!
"NO CRISIS WILL GO WASTED" and is the perfect scenario for getting a lock grip on power and control.....and with so many GS executives picked to run things, thank goodness for the foresight and savvy to do that.
It seems to me the ONLY thing standing betwen the BIG BANKS and failure is a GOV GUARANTEE with OUR MONEY and and CHANGE in an ACCOUNTING RULE.
JAPAN tried HIDING the damage done to their banks, did not realize their bad debts.....boy look how great it turned out there? 20 years of deflation and a stock market only 25% of what it was 20 years ago! NOW THAT'S PROGRESS AND TOO BIG TO FAIL IN ACTION....PROPITIS PONZINOMIS
Transports hurled from a possible DOUBLE TOP FORMATION, housing and financials have been weakest in this hurlathon.
SO we know about the decline in volume in this rally especially on those big rally days for the most part. But IBD goes on to inform us their have been 8 DISTRIBUTION DAYS on the SPX 500, and this can I inform you is not BULLISH.
In June ALLEN ELLIOT EXPLAINS "The clearest signal that a market uptrend is in distress is a buildup of distribution days.
When a major index drops more than 0.2% in higher volume than the previous session, that's a distribution day. It suggests institutional investors are selling their holdings."
We talked about yesterday how the VIX has turned up since last week, there is still some uneasiness out there.
Now I don't KNOW how the market will react to the GDP THURSDAY REPORT, and we have heard a LOT about Fidelity's end of year this FRI and how it may induce a rally to pump up their figures......will it?
Is A TOP or THE TOP IN? I personally think that is possible, but we could also run to 1,200 if 1120 is broken and held, so I wouldn't rule anythng out. TOO EARLY to be playing Nostradamus.
Yesterday we had around 100 point VAULT early on then $ rallied and BAMM almost 200 points REVERSAL....another REVERSAL DAY.....what in the world could be worrying this market? Haven't the people in the know put us on the road to recovery?
Monday, October 26, 2009
BIDU falls on face in AH takes a TUMBLE!
In 3-4 months the QE of FED is to end....without manipulation the whole sheebang falls aprt.
The bearish wedge broke as the Transports are under that spell for now below the lower support.
Interest rates rose with the selloff. The US $ rallied with the selloff. The DOW is laying on its lower trendline of its own bearish wedge..at the close.
Vix has showed some life now above 24.
Thursday is GDP data, with huge rally, and klunkers , stim....I dont know anyone that isn't expecting a POP, and to me it's meaningless......to what the reality is.....but the market will speak its opinion.
ISSUES AT CITIBANK?
When buying VALUE you hold to see the value realized, when buying a zutz, a speculative MOMO you hope to hear the music slowing down before it stops and sucks everyone in the black hole behind the closing door.....
TIM WOOD explains his interpretation of a Secular Trend in terms of Dow Theory
We know at MArch bottom PE's were said to be @ 24 and Dividend yields near 3.5% at the historical references of IMPORTANT BOTTOMS would be close to SINGLE DIGIT PE ratios (SPX) and near 6% yields (currently BELOW 2% !)
Though the rallies that seperate the different phases of the secular bear can be impressive, and maybe even have longer to run, the evidence IMHO is clear we haven't reached the bottom.
The fact we fell below the previous BEAR LOWS in 2002 suggests it is not over. Maybe AMZN is a clear winner here, it took them nearly 10 years to best previous highs, but when you factor in the $ value then and now that wouldn't be the case.
LTBH rarely works when in a long term (SECULAR) Bearish trend. Sometime in 2010 it is reported that potentially 40% of homeowners will owe than their houses are worth!
With unemployment REPORTED at near 10%, wages stagnant, and a few essentials to living costing more, with loans at banks receding, lending standards tightening, Government intervention growing, access to credit to small businesses dwindling, an economy like a crack addict to STIMULUS, in a Consumer driven economy, I find the chances to be slim that current valuations are substantiated.
NABE report shows some improvement link here albeit from historical lows of 6% to 12%.
NOT LIVING WITHIN ITS MEANS, we couldn't run our homes like this. We are at mercy of others, if we aren't buying our OWN debt LINK HERE debt ceiling approaching
Sunday, October 25, 2009
Saturday, October 24, 2009
from safehaven.com LINK HERE
When we turn our attention to real economy and NOT lining the in crowds pockets, maybe we can do something, rightnow WHO's BRIGHT IDEA was to make the BANKERS whole, wealthy and screw the rest a REAL TRICKLE DOWN approach..rediculous!!! they caused the problems.....so now GS makes 80% of profits trading....do we have nay banks left that lenbd?
2003-2007 Bank earnings couldn't have been REAL? and NOW? they aren't realizing the losses from CRAP PAPER still being held....not marked to ANY market value but in their heads...dreams.
WATCH the VIDOE! "SUICIDE BANKERS?" who won this debate?
MARTIN GOLDBERG LINK HERE
RICHARD ECKERT LINK GREAT DISCONNECT PART 1 LINK PART 2 IPO NOS
I suggest, take your time, go to the story print it out, make a cup of coffee...carefully read and weigh the evidence......we can't afford to get this one wrong
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm Net Birth Data LInk
Just as the market share nothing in common with the real economy, so does the unemployment data.....both are MUCH WORSE than advertised.
Understand ALL they have done is blow money at the vearious BUBBLES hoping to re-inflate them......bubbles POP for a reason, that SHOULD begin the healing process, but THEY don't want that....remember they use EVERY CRISIS as a chance to GAIN MORE POWER..... like now these insidious banks who bent us over and created this crisis......did we WEED them out and leave the stronger ones? NO....the bigger ones got MUCH BIGGER and guess what, the f'ers are ADDING to their derivitive portfolio and are making their living TRADING 60% of overall volume which comes from HFT.
SO what we did accomplish is DIVERT CAPITAL FROM REAL ECONOMY AND INVESTMENT TO NON PRODUCTIVE PAPER ASSETS like the stock market......do you undestand what I'm saying here, it means until they take us on the right path where are going to flounder and not create jobs, and if we are not creating jobs how are we going to lift our boats out of this cesspool?
The REAL economy toped in 1997 during that expansion, but the stock market fueled by rampant speculation and the interent craze and Y2 K FED goosing ,exploded upward in a final amazing launch.
It is difficult to call THE TOP, I am not going to do that right now. I read the comments, I don't like to project too much to a move except interpret my TA and if I'm lucky take what the market will give me and move on.
More diverting from real economy goes way of the stimulus.....we have a CRACK HEAD economy.....fueled by PONZINOMICS. shoot up.....
WE have had a TECHNICALLY strong rally in that few neaningful declines have accompanied this march from March.
BUT since the HIGHS made in MARCH/APRIL stocks ABOVE their 30 DMA has been falling and new issues making 52 week highs has not confirmed this new MARKET HIGH.
This alone does not spell out THE TOP....you call it if you want to, I am waiting for more data, in the meatime I hope to TAKE WHAT THE MARKET WILL GIVE ME.
New Credit Bubble Report online link here
Friday, October 23, 2009
As soon as you think a turn is coming you also see peculiar market activity like how last 10-15 minutes after all day weakness and failed rally attemps, the market pops a bit.....sure a miracle.
Now for you conspriacy theorists, I am SURE GS was nowhere to be found....
IT takes more than hiding behind a curtain and sticking pins in a bear doll to reinvigerate economy, what a farce
NOT A HAPPY FELLOW LINK HERE TO FURRY BEAR
on this news
"Fiscal first-quarter profit fell 18 percent "
Friends this seems to be the game here, dwindling up volume.... rally on weak $, hide the real profit story under the walnut shell! bleep me!
"Current FHA loan limits are as high as $729,750 in high cost areas, and are set to expire at the end of the year and revert to lower amounts, greatly hindering the housing recovery process." Is this whatthe FHA was founded for? To get rich people into oversized homes?
We have U6 unemployment at near 1 in every 6 Americans, savings rate IS LOW but on rise, credit standards have tightened, Credit is contracting, real wages not growing, officially we have WIPED OUT all the employment from prior advance some OFFICIALLY 7.2 MILLION. I scratch my head trying to figure out how all these companies say they're doing well, beat "estimates" raise guidance and these poor slobs are out of the fervent economy.?? how so?
The rally is showing you one thing for sure, that RAMPANT SPECULATION IS BACK and this was the goal all along, while all this stimulus and liquidity are going into the NON-PRODUCTIVE part of economy....which breeds horrible imbalances and festering bubbles.
In the meanwhile if you take out the effect of overseas business from US companies reporting, even AMZN gets almost 50% of sales outside of the US, if you were to figure in a DEVALUED $.....I suspect you would get a VERY DIFFERENT PICTURE of current "earnings"....and in any case in MOST CASES what you see as a BEAT EXPECTATIONS is coming as REVENUES shown are FALLING....a HUGE portion of gains are coming from HEAD LOPPING.
INVESTMENT in the REAL ECONOMY has been falling for decades and we are paying the price, we THE CONSUMER GENERATION haven't much to offer, and we fueled our appetite of consumption with BORROWING....now that EVERY RAW DATA I READ SAYS THIS CREDIT IS DECLINING...you tell me how the market in just 7 months has priced in a return to an even higher over-valuation than in 2007 top?
This FICTION, PONZINOMIC SCHEME is great.....until the smoke clears, that will be one very narrow door many will be fleeing to get out IMHO
Thursday, October 22, 2009
And sure as night follows day, THEY will take your money from you again, and again.
WASHINGTON (TheStreet) -- Home prices dipped in August after three straight months of gains.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced today that prices slipped 0.3% during the month and are 3.6% below last year's levels. This, however, is still well above the 10.7% decline seen in April 2007.
So prics are stabilized? But the value of all those TRILLIONS of paper held by the banks are values near FACE VALUE...this March rally began when the GAO allowed BANKS to STOP marking their mortgage paper to face value, it is now marked to ? fantasy
PONZINOMICS gone wild, when investing in MOMO understand that, eventually a few will at least demand that profits stop FALLING from previous year and the manipulation of the "analysts estimates" (GROANNNNNNNNNNNNN) and the game is lower them so they can beat them..I just had a horribly crude thought.....I'll keep that to myself.....
OK let's say you are a midget...a dwarf....( I like dwarfs) and you meet this girl over the net and you are talking to her and you say......I'm diminuative...but probably 4 ft tall.....when she meets you..she finds you are actually 4'6"...imagine the surprise and glee......
Dont do this in reverse,,,like say how incredable your hair is and then show up with a CHROME DOME!!!!! bad call....
Many "experts" are saying the market is MORE EXPENSIVE than it was at 2007 top....are we in better shape now?
The big burnout Stimulus packages have fed speculation, not investment, creating dangerous new asset bubbles
"Central banks around the world have released massive amounts of money in response to the current financial crisis. How to exit from the current super-loose monetary environment has become a popular discussion. The central bankers are talking down the prospect of raising interest rates, arguing that the weak economy keeps inflation in check. But the proposition that a weak economy means low inflation is false. The stagflation of the 1970s proves it."
This round of monetary growth has mainly fed speculation, not credit demand for consumption or investment. Speculation has reached a dangerous point with the oil price threatening to reach triple digits again. Its implications for inflation may spook the central banks to raise interest rates quickly and trigger another crash."
SO what we are left is an even greater mal adjusted economy, rampant speculation apart from fundamentals, false earnings for banks if you consider problem assets being kept away from mark to market value....a huge part of SPX 500.
Even if it IS better, or it seems better, it is because we are being PROPPED UP...in the MSM and stock market.....some co's may do well, on the whole head lopping can only take so far.
WE END UP WITH ZOMBIE BANKS.....excuse me, how do you grow economy with credit contracting, ZOMBIE BANKS who don't lend, assets at false values.......doubling aggregate money base......stimuls is only demand....gee what we freakin need is MORE STIMULUS
LIKE CAFFEINE....when you come down you crash.
Watch Crash The Next Great Depression (factors that led to the 2008 meltdown -- after the 1929 market crash in Politics | View More Free Videos Online at Veoh.com
Volume and breadth were weak, TRans flat, naz lithe....only 30 stocks in DOW to manipulate...and remember they also threw out some trash and replaced with stronger companies months back.
And you wonder why you shouldn't throw the house at the market? I know this, the market is very expensive and it must have awfully good eyesight to see $80 in SPX earnings around the corner. I showed in todays AM data that continuing claims on a 4 week (more stable avg) moving average were still above 531,000.
Companies have LOPPED heads to make their marks here, how many of these reporting are showing growing revenues WITHOUT weak dollar assistance?
Irrationality can last longer than you think and longer than your solvency should you continue to fight the trend.
That's why I go in small, managable position, and I can add, so far I have not.....yesterdays action may be a blio but it had the reversal and it had higher volume behind it.....but the Casino operators are very worried and they wont give up easily....
RULE #1....set stop losses so your losing trades don't put you so far behind you can't catch up.......you can be right but at wrong time....SPX 1095 turned back this charade....will it hold for tomorrow....tune in....NOW if today was a BIG DEAL....it should have dwarfed yesterdays volume
4 week moving average 531,000, this far into Recession, NO I MEAN RECESSION IS OVER....
We are a ship heading towards the Niagra Falls, no rudder, no captain...no chance.
1 in at least every 10 Americans OUT OF A JOB, many out of assistance.....but all these companies see "recovery, stabilization, upping estimates, beating estimates....." all this how?
From head and capex chopping? all this chopping of this and that and all is now well? ANY EARNINGS HELPED BY WEAK US $?
How strong is recovery if still losing jobs above worst it ever was after 911, and FED has to keep rates at ZERO...."for an extended period......
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
EBAY after the close:
"For the third quarter, eBay /quotes/comstock/15*!ebay/quotes/nls/ebay (EBAY 23.19, -1.84, -7.35%) reported earnings of $349.7 million, or 27 cents a share, compared to earnings of $492.2 million, or 38 cents a share, for the same period last year"
I Still contend easy money has been made, now stock pickers game, has gotten very selective. Doesn't mean uptrend is OVER, I do think the time is RIPE for some reasonable retrace, then we can asess the POWER of any selling. NO NEED TO GUESS or be so sure....I'm looking at singles friends...dont need home runs, keeps one out of trouble.
By using STOPS on ALL my trades, I should be able to keep the losers (we all have those) from ruining my winners.
Todays ABRUPT reversal shows what can happen at any moment, in the thick of earnings, which we keep being told are BEATING THE EST....
I say we got ZOMBIE BANKS, I SAY WE GOT RIGGED SYSTEM, I SAY WE GOT HORRENDOUS LEADERSHIP that keeps putting the FOXES in the fing henhouses!!!
I mean, give the banks trillions, give them access to the FED at 0%, and then let the big banks EAT their competition thus getting even BIGGER....let them BUY BACK with FREE MONEY THE BONDS which manipulate the rates low, there is NO incentive to lend..and then TAKE THE FREE MONEY and USE IT TO TRADE????????????? and the CHINESE are taking our dollar and buying up EVERYTHING they can....if this keeps up...they will dominate world not us...incl military
And there are reports of SECRET GS and FED meetings? phone calls? "hey dude what's up...how's the family?" I DOUBT IT!
UPDATE EBAY selling off some in AH.
CAN this joystick go in reverse? you bet your ass it can.......I don't or need to call THE TOP...just follow the bouncing ball, let my TA clue me in...and lately I been SPOT ON!
I tried to explain where I've been, what's been happening to me personally....how I let it effect my trading or lack thereof.....I may be coming out of it...maybe I got my MOJO back...maybe
Point is....too one sided here, so if not short, and was long smart guys took some off table, and let things settle down...some maybe short...I NEVER BET the farm.
I was going to DOUBLE my position when I enterred it, but then I hesitated and thought....limit exposure, dont swing for fences....too BIG a position may have kept me OUT or would be too stressful to hold.....so Poppa was just right...STOP LOSS SET MY RISK
Stop loss doesnt work good in case of opening GAPPER..........otherwise usually good move.
I read some intelligent sub stuff says...."early in a primary uptrend move".....may be time for correction and good time to throw out weak links...NO sign yet of reversal or end of this uptrend"
OK OK, I say...gee how can that be? I don't know.... got to keep an open mind....don't have to agree.
I have set another goal..I'll look to see if mkt can be held at important support areas....go from there.
Sure , I may be one of a few making my calls....I will try and share some of when and what I may do...in THIS forum I am mainly trying to help peopel understand the bigger picture, and I may be speaking to all levels of people....traders...LTBH etc etc
I will never tell you exactly what to do, I can;t do that.....that is for paid sub types to do....I can at best infer....and then tell you NEVER do anything w/o consulting a qualified financial advisor.
AND JUST CAUSE i MAY SAY i DID SOMETHIG, i AM NOT SAYING HEY EVERYBODY DO THIS OR THAT..you GOTTA MAKE THAT CALL.
I have warned being short is RISKY. BEing long in a bear is too....Let's keep an open mind, there isn't much CHOICE for getting returns these days....man its tough.
OUTRAGIOUS....DO NOT STAND FOR IT. DO SOMETHING, I like some of Dylan's ideas....together we can send a message. please watch that video.
"The American taxpayer in fact has given trillions of dollars, billions directly to Goldman Sachs so that Goldman can use the taxpayer subsidy to play a parlor game and pay themselves record bonuses. "
And I been saying..."Castles made of sand slip into the sea eventually....yeah yeah"
More shortly after the close, about the action today...
Market not able to advance much (esp Tues) where the market has had LOTS of HIGH PROFILE earnings beats...incl GOOG .....$ index back to 75.00 so many concluding time to buy some gold in here.....I am wondering if the US $ is giving headfake here.....immediate action ahead may be helpful.
WHAT IF IT DOESN'T WORK? and WHO has THE CASH???
"The New York Fed has been working over the past year to ensure 'this tool will be ready when and if' the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee decides to use it.
In a reverse repo, the Fed sells assets such as Treasuries for cash with an agreement to buy them back at a higher price at a later date. Federal Reserve policy-makers have said that this could be one tool to drain excess reserves from the banking system when the time comes to tighten policy."
Stay strong? YUP> but I have my stops in place, got in good, so risk is LOW. I have no problem coming out and resetting. I can be right but at wrong time, can't be stubborn when trading.
Surely this GAME they are playing will catch up to them, but a VIX now falling to near 20.00 may not be consistant with a severe decline lurking..only when it shoots back if it does..if it doesn't, we'd be banging our heads waiting for the inevitable.
Market continues to work higher with WEAK volume and hardly anyone scared anymore...how bout that?
Let it rip thru my FIBS and I might have to change sides.....SO I have a plan.....let's see what happens.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
And so the saga continues , and we'll just keep make believing that we are at the beginning of a new dawn, a greater day of blue skies and a revived economy based on a fairy tale.
Meanwhile Moses and his Wall Street disciple's have all loaded into the BONUS ARK and are sailing away with billions of ill begotten profits, we only wish from lending the American people back the money given to them OH NO, they are using most of it to buy back TREASURY BONDS to keep rates artificially low, gee that sounds like a fing grande idea.
I hope you watched some of the Bernanke videos, he is a bumbling stumbling stooge. He makes Shemp looks intelligent.
We are near the FIBS I listed, we are way overextended even if we were back to normal, and we are not.....what's wrong with a little correction?
One of my services has registered a short term sell signal, my work also does, but many I read still don't think a top is in.....hard to say just yet.....ifone was to sell any weak perfomrers....were there any?
IMHO easy money phase may have concluded...more stock picking expertise now will be needed.
If we look back the watershed event that turned this market around was in APRIL of 2009 when the FASB rule for 'Mark To Market" was put to bed.
Here is link from FEB zero hedge
I don't want to hear another admistrative speach on how "TRANSPARENT" the markets are going to get! Between this rule suspensiion which HIDES ANY TRUE CALCULATION of assets to the TRILLION $ bnak giveaway to the FED's refusal to answer any questions as to where the money went, what a JOKE!
THEY are losing, lost the TRUST of the American people...and the coming BILLION $$ WALL STREET BONUS giveaway will be watershed event IMHO in the screwing of American taxpayer...and possibly their revulsion from it.
PS...I enterred near the highs a FEELER position in DXD....I felt risk to reward was good for a pullback of some kind....and the stop loss that I EMPLOY with EVERY trade defined the risk and it was reasonable...GL everybody no matter where you stand.
Caterpillar 3Q profit drops 53 pct on weaker salesAP(Tue 7:43am)
Caterpillar ups 2009 view as profit slumps 53%at MarketWatch(Tue 7:43am)
And COCA COLA etc, the multi nationals (INCL CAT) are having an amazing LIFT to profits? and revenues because of weak dollar and int'l biz.......you see THE GAME FOLKS?
keep buying...chasing momo....?
Well by creating money out of nowhere, you can see what has happened to OUR savings, the BUYING POWER of OUR currency.....and excuse me, I'm hot this AM....are we freakin better off?
YEAH, it's a doggone ILLUSION! Thanks for nothing FED, your job is what? stable currency and economies? you FLUNKED!
SO now, the market says "WHY WORRY" and the long bond yield says.." WE IN A HEAP OF TROUBLE WILLIS"
WELL Actually as our US $ declines directly because of GOV and FED action.....the attack on the US $ has destroyed most American's savings
FED keeping interest rates TOO LOW AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! imagine what CRISIS WILL follow this last one? Can we PAPER over them? HOusING VALUES still falling.....commodity prices keep rising not because of demand.....this house of cards is going to CRUMBLE
As the Federal Reserve cts unconstitutionally, and as WAll Street readies itself to get a RECORD amount of PAY....as more Americans ready themselves to be JOBLESS and HOMELESS, as FORECLOSURES continue to rise, not even counting those kept off market, not counting that BANKS are carrying CDO'S with RANCID mortgages at FACE VALUE which blows up their earnings.....don't even think about auditing the FED how dare you!
SMOKE SCREEN, MANIPULATED MKT RALLY, BANKS ACTUALLY (GS IN PARTICULAR) GROWING their derivitive books......all kinds of shit being kept from the Americam people......
Demand an accounting, demand open and free markets, demand fairness.
"Total revenue for the third quarter was 15 percent lower than revenue levels recorded in the third quarter of 2008. Texas Instruments said that yearly drop in revenue is attributed to declines in all business segments, including wireless."
If this game of "beating the street" doesn't turn your stomach what will? There comes apoint when a shitload is baked into prics as was on the downside, IMHO we are near a correction....and it may begin today...on any gap up which is sold.
AAPL hit $202 iN AH trading, almost like no one is buying a blackberry anymore
LINK TO CNN STORY HERE
ALL THAT CRAP PAPER..SITTING SOMEWHERE....IS NOT WORTH WHAT SOMEONE SAYS IT IS.....THE SPX 500 EARNINGS are a fraud
Monday, October 19, 2009
Here is how XERO HEDGE describes how the FED BAILED OUT THE WORLD
ALSO stocks above their 30 day moving average continued to deteriorate.....and I am guessing the smart money in in full scale distribution mode.
We should watch China to see if it now plays catchup to other world markets.
We are witnessing some facts maybe never seen before in our lifetimes. Expanding economy here in the US was always synonymous with expanding credit market debt and a re-energizing in consumer credit...........................
For the first time in maybe 50 years we are going thru a CONTRACTION in total credit market debt, the US CONSUMER IS RETRENCHING.
BUT, GOV AND FED POLICY are fighting this new trend of balance sheet reconciliation, and are throwing the kitchen sink at it, doubling the money supply know in existence in merely months.
BUT most of this is sitting as EXCESS BANK RESERVES, not lent so gold is sniffing a day when it will be perhaps.
BUT Banks (Hedge Funds) have access to almost FREE MONEY and this "excess liquidity" has to find a home somewhere, BUT instead of into productive means, it is flowing into commodities and STOCK MARKETS......and IMHO a NEW BUBBLE IS FORMING.
This does not tell me when the game is over, it does tell me if not productive means, then considering the historic nature of this FED intrusion, it will and may have historic repercussions.
Just as the US CONSUMER is trying to repair the damage done from decades of too much debt, instead of lend a hand to the saver (higher int rates paid on deposits) the saver is being penalized (near 0% on savings)....and IMHO should the US Consumer continue to make attempts at repiar, and GOV and FED policies only help the BIG WALL STREET INSTITUTIONS .....it seems to me these too bigger to fail players are playing with themselves...WHY THEN the DECLINING PUTRID STOCK MARKET VOLUME? which in uncharacteristic of any previous bull mkts?
We do not see any PROOF that the current FED and GOV policies are having a positive impact on the REAL ECONOMY, then I can only conclude it is building an ever more dangerous imbalance that can only be more destructive than anything coming before it.
In MArch, who knows, maybe generational values were seen in cheap stock valuations, but NOW? in only 6-7 months we are back in bubble territory....all the while losing over 2.5 Million jobs and seeing a yr/yr contraction in credit.....how will this turn out?
A BELOW 2% yield on the SPX 500 and expensive PE ratio is telling me the "easy money" has been made, and now MOMO will carry prices to some other level....until it doesn't.
It seems obvious the "little guy" was too scared to buy these bargains, nor maybe had cash. With horrid job picture and dwindling paychecks.....homes no longer able to provide a source of funds to spend......this doesn't spell lasting sustainable economy to me.
The US $ has been the pony to ride this reflation effort, as it steadily has lost value since March, most else has floated higher, but when your currency is not on stable footing, are we better off?
Proof some more profound change has been gained, well we await that data, and I await more reasonable stock valuations.
That said I believe LESS thaT THE RALLY we now witness has anything to do with the REAL ECONOMY and more so the record FED and GOV stimulus efforts that may have backstopped the market but has done little to regroup the economy.
The rally has spindly legs of falling volume not acquainted with prior bull mkts, but this one mY BE hard to judge how far it can go on the helium being fed it.
But I do feel when it ends, and maybe at the FIB targets I posted near 1122 SPX and 10,300 DOW there will be a severe decline, even if not to new lows.
The reckless actions now being undertaken, are building up another bubble that may rival all others....there is no easy fix.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Here is ECRI TAKE LINK HERE
In 2003 they had the autos and housing...... (and an endless supply of financing thru CDO'S but they did screw the pooch) and the endless refi's and heloc's........do YOU see how they win again with the liquidity game?
Now, there is a LOT of cash in BONDS....yes should it come out it has to go somewhere. After 60% gains NOW the little guy comes into the game? maybe DUMB money is finally the f'ers perpetuating this game....and the music stops?
NO justice.....no truth....NO TRUST.....NO LASTING SUSTAINABLE recovery....and nobody is right 100% of the time.
MORE GS people in the most important positions in our financial apparatus? RECORD payouts due WALL STREET? TRUST me, you will hear a lot of bullshit coming from the hill, do not believe it, OBAMA and his henchmen have sold us down the river.....they'll get their money as MILLIONS suffer a different fate, because they played fair and were not connected.
Think twice next time you vote, LISTEN and see if you hear a politician, spewing the same assinine promises...never to be delivered....or do you hear ANYONE telling it like it is....you know until now...ANYONE TELLING IT LIKE IT IS...never gets elected.
The TOO BIGGER TO FAIL BANKS rule the roost.....bought and paid for! I'm getting tired of grabbing my ankles, how about you?
Another Goldman Executive Named to Key Government Post as Its Profits Skyrocket
by Glenn Greenwald
"Apparently, the U.S. government didn't have enough Goldman Sachs executives in key financial and regulatory positions, so the following happened this week :
A Goldman Sachs executive has been named the first chief operating officer of the Securities and Exchange Commission's enforcement division."
He's 29 yrs old!
*WAKE UP AMERICA....we are being sold out, Obama doesn't even try to frickin hide it, there is no one else in the fing coutry except EX GS insiders to take key posts?? THIS IS AN OUTRAGE AND in your face move.
How's it feel to have your president sell you out?
We do know incredably, that EVEN after the HISTORIC RALLY off the lows of Recession of greater than 60%, and 7 plus months long, and all the MSM and GOV HYPE of "the recession is over" has NOT LURED BACK the individual investor?! WHY?
Maybe this time he is SICK of being the dumb money and no amount of bullshit will lure him/her back in until a FULL accounting and coverup is exposed!
THE CONFIDENCE OF AMERICAN CITIZENS IS SHATTERED!!!
Can you close your eyes for a moment and see all of Wall Street walking up to the podium before year end to pick up their checks on avg $700,000 ???? and can you imagine with me the glee of every out of work American getting wind of the BIGGEST PAYDAY IN WALL STREET HISTORY thanks to all those persoanl phone calls from the Treasury to the insiders alerting them of their upcoming actions? an almost guarantee of profits?
Don't worry you don't lend the money given, just use it to make money for yourselves!!!! And hide in a DARK PLACE ALL THOSE GRUB EATEN MORTGAGES you don't mark to market value.....who cares?
ANd don't ask why the RATING AGENCIES put AAA on the subprime slime? ANd don't bring anyone to justice?
WHY isn't the cry of anger growing in every orifice, and the full understanding that FEDERAL RESERVE POLICY is directly responsable for the bubbles created??WHY WHY WHY
If we didn't have ZOMBIE BANKS then they would be lending? Is there any incentive to lend?
Are there oodles of credit worthy customers lining up?
A fall in umemployed to just over 500,000 Thursday a weekly number is hailed as step in right direction and sign of recovery, friends, that isn't even back to WORST reporting at 2001 highs!!!
Commercial real estate problems not even discussed here......
How does economy,come on....gear up spending and how do companies GROW while more than 7 MILLION are walking the streets? COME ON!
WE BEAT ESTIMATES.....who gives a shit, they still playing that game.....
SO IMHO it seems like the PROS have done everything possible to LURE BACK THE BAGHOLDERS...the dumb money....they are playing with HOUSE/OUR MONEY...have INCREASED THE SIZE OF LEVERAGE AND DERIVITIVES (still unknown and not policed) and playing with themselves.......dangerous game of musical chairs.....if and when the music stops......
If a new bull has been grown from this disaster......well no wonder so many are willing to accept 3% on their money....ASK YOURSELF...does it make sense that from the crisis we have/had and the policies undertaken.....does that equal the largest rally in per cent terms from a recessionary bottom in the history of the stock market and by a MILE!??? ALL THE WHILE another 2.5 million jobs lost etc etc...and if housing has stabilized then WHY the worst 3 month period SINCE CRISIS BEGAN of foreclosures?
I think the AMerican public is SICK OF LIES, MANIPULATION, LIP SERVICE and GOV in general and the mood is ripe for CHANGE...not just in a speach...OBAMA a HUGE dissapointment following that asshole Bush...just more of the same
Maybe this time, we have had just about enough!