Monday, November 30, 2009

ANOTHER DOWNER

Friday's shortened session had strong 97% down volume, but today's response to that and Black Friday and CYber Monday is.....weak rally 57% up volume.

If it ain't a DEAL shoppers not interested, and nobody is comparing the sales figures to 2008 and reminding you how pathetic they were.

No proof of a v shaped recovery except in the stock mkt....somebody is wrong.
D

BLACK EYE FRIDAY

“Shoppers were up at 195 million versus 172 million in 2008. But average spending dipped from $372.57 to $343.31. Department stores saw the most customer traffic.”

That stat is key IMHO, 23 MILLION MORE but spent on avg less and 2008 was a bad retail year, so comparisons were easy.

And I am worried that these 23 million more are the ones who might have waited and spent in the next 3 weeks leading up to xmas. If MORE were shopping and spent less per person…doesn’t bode well. Bargain low margin door busters drove more people out and the rest of the way wont be pretty

US SOLVENCY?

http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/3455/Porter_Stansberry#

Sunday, November 29, 2009

DEC MARKET HISTORY

only 7 in last 30 YEARS DEC was downer, Nov COULD bring an (false) employment upside surprise (holiday hiring PLUS shorter month)

The performance to date in 2009 mirrors 2003 blast off, BUT the fundamental backdrop couldn't be more different.

One important fact was the job market was expanding, not shedding 8 million jobs. Credit was set to BLAST OFF into a bubble and expanded at historical rate fueling economic tsunami and earnngs miracle. NOW we have declining credit and bank loans and companies have been lopping heads and cutting back on expansion plans and capital spending.....instead of BANKS LOOSENING standards they are TIGHTENING and CUTTING credit lines.....INSTEAD of GOV's rolling in TAX RECEIPTS they are funding starved.

STOCK performance couldn't hardly be more alike, economic and finacial back drop couldn't be more diferent.

The playbook for Institutions and financials is coming off same page that always seems to work, on a very different economic backdrop, BUT in the DEC trading days ahead, with possibly BONUSSES at stake.....will the horses bolt out of the stalls or KEEP rolling the dice?

WILL MONDAY bring the usual bullishness it does, and stories of FULL shopping malls and Consumers showing no fear or debt hangover? EVEN though 8 million have been taken out of the game since 2007?

NO, I don't have crystal ball nor do I know when the fluffing game ends, when it does I DO know damn good chance....this rally will be seen as a cyclical bull WITHIN a SECULAR BEAR and that ain't good.

IF YOU have gains and I would be on the lookout for signs the gig is up

D

Saturday, November 28, 2009

"FALL OF AMERICA



thanks to jesse cafe for heads up.

FED UP? IS THIS SOME CRAZY SHIT? OVERSTATED? TRUE? RACIST? SCAREY? ALL MAY BE TRUE

WAKE UP AMERICA OBAMMA is pandering to the SAME in crowd as BUSH, the SAME BANKS who almost destroyed the financial system are being HOISTED UP on a pedestal and being made even STRONGER.....there's your "CHANGE YOU CAN BELEIVE IN" what a HYPOCRITE

And remember these very words SPOKEN by GOV OFFICIAL...Rahlm emmanuel

"YOU NEVER WANT A SERIOUS CRISIS TO GO TO WASTE"

D

POPS OR DROPS?

Friday's shortened session brought in another 90% down volume day, but OTHER measures of selling were less impressive and IMHO we still don't have proof that A TOP is in.

How will market react next week will help determine short term, as Dubai is dealt with and we get reactions to Black FRI shopping. Initial reports seem to imply hey what was all the worry about?

But to draw in shoppers low or no profit door busters were used, how couldn't shoppers be more cautious? ANY comparisons will be to a WEAK 2008.

Is there any sign yet the liquidity flow that has moved markets since March has ended? Might hedge funds want to BOOK PROFITS?

When SERIOUS technical damage is done to markets then let's begin looking for that TOP

D

Friday, November 27, 2009

BIG LEGGED

POPA CAN PLAY "Race With The Devil"

AS THE SPX TURNS

Closeup on todays action, ATTACK (the gap down open) and couter attack the attempt to mitigate losses in alow volume environment. WATCH 1083 lower low next week, if broken decline has further to run IMHO
RUSSEL 2000 (little guys) close on the low with 2.5% drop has been weaker than DOW. TRansports is putting in lower lows after triple top I pointed out.
ANY appearence a top is in the playa's will run for the exitsa to lock in rediculous gains and we will have a bunch of bagholders again...

"IT STINKS"

http://www.zerohedge.com/print/33396 A HUGE LEVER for economy has been thrown into reverse

SOBER REMINDER

NOTHING THAT WENT WRONG HAS BEEN ADDRESSED LINK to KD POST

MAN was MY turkey SALTY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SHIPPER SPRING A LEAK?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aM6vXZQQQNMU

IS DUBAI A HARBINGER OF PROBLEMS?

POISED FOR DRUBBING

US $ RISING above 75.00, looks like a BEAR AMBUSH TODAY....aptly named Black FRI.

More later, FUTURES SHOWING LARGE LOSSES. JAPAN's NIKK index back to 9,000 !!

D

Thursday, November 26, 2009

DUBAI CRISIS

(AP:LONDON) World stock markets tumbled Thursday as investors fretted over the debt problems at Dubai World, a government investment company, and the continuing slide in the dollar, which earlier fell to a 14-year low against the yen.

Markets are usually relatively quiet when Wall Street is closed for a holiday, as it is Thursday for Thanksgiving Day. Not so today, as the rest of the world digested the stunning news from Dubai that the government's flagship investment company was in financial trouble.

European markets followed Asia lower with the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares closing down 170.68 points, or 3.2 percent, at 5,194.13, having been out of action earlier for over three hours because of technical problems.

Germany's DAX fell 188.85 points, or 3.2 percent, to 5,614.17 while the CAC-40 in France was 129.93 points, or 3.4 percent, lower at 3,679.23.

Sentiment in stocks was dented by the news that Dubai World, which is thought to have debts totaling around $60 billion, has asked creditors if it can postpone its forthcoming payments until May. That stoked fears of a potential default and contagion around the global financial system, particularly in banks and emerging markets.

PRECIPICE OF US $ PANIC?


Is this an "orderly" dollar decline? Maybe on daily chart there is more support below this weekly as shown, but a break down of 2008 panic lows will find the $ with NO KNOWN SUPPORT, and it will have enterred into the TWILIGHT ZONE.
A 3 month closeup shows 74.68 WAS support on daily now broken. HOWEVER IN ACTIVE TRADING TODAY INO.COM SHOWS a dollar snap back rally to 74.76
SPX price at close had a 1.93% DIV yield, one of lowest on record at any TOP found at BIGCHARTS.COM. No listed PE ratio.
Put this in your corn cob and smoke it:
RICHMOND FED SHOWS ECONOMY WEAKENING ACROSS THE BOARD the price index reflects DEFLATION with a RECORD LOW reading in Services price component.
ALso the CHICAGO FED INDEX continued its downward path
V shaped recovery? or manipulated market and BS peddled to the masses?
WHERE'S THE BEEF? Well where's the turkey.....enjoy THXgiving, be safe, TGIF almost..how BLACK will it be? DO we havebackdrop for increasing consumer purchases? STOP GIVING US "SEASONLLY ADJUSTED FIGURES......."
Duratek

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

DEATH OF A CURRENCY

$ being HAMMERED today down another .80 to 74.28 (chart only shows end of day previous)
ALL other things are shown going in OPPOSITE direction.
This is the policy still going on, the results should continue just as they have. The greatest transfer of weath in history right under our noses, well not my nose.
It's total BS the current policies have done little more than is visable on this chart. YES read it and weep
D

HAS THE WEAK DOLLAR FIXED EVERYTHING?

PRUDENT BEAR SITE POST LINK HERE

CREDIT CARD GAME



I was watching this on the blog and after 5-6 minuted video zonked out, if that happens here is LINK to FRONTLINE WEB PAGE FOR VIDEO

SEASONALLY ADJUST ME KD LINK

DURABLE RECOVERY?????


The SPECTACULAR RISE in home sales being touted (kind word), did they mention it's probably ALL "SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS" and any real sales were mostly LOW priced CONDOS....that my buddy in Tamap tells me know no bounds.....meaning plentiful and empty.
As gold nears $1,200 and during this rally we have lost another 3 MILLION jobs, seen credit outstanding contract, loan requirement tighten, credit card companies JACK UP RATES and credit line CUT, home prices slip, forclosure continue to rise, ZOMBIE phantom inventory kept hidden from view, as job losses slow remember their firing arm is getting tired and no more fat left....maybe little muscle too...far cry from ADDING JOBS.
For me 2 + 2 doesn't equal 4.....
D

CONSUMER SENTIMENT REBOUND?


HOUSING REBOUND???


HAIL THE GREAT WED EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS!

"Still, analysts say claims must drop to near 400,000 for several weeks to signal actual growth in employment. Economists expect 145,000 payroll job cuts for November, a slight improvement from the net loss of 190,000 jobs last month. But the economy must add 125,000 jobs a month just to keep the unemployment rate from rising."

RUBBISH! we're fed a pile of bull, so the bull can live. OH US $ taking it on the kisser below 75.00 again and GOLD nearing $1,200 YEAH keep pushing on that string FED

VIVE' LE FRANCE BABETTE

Duratek

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

FRONT LINE " THE CARD GAME"



Here is intro, watched it tonight, this is a must watch one hour show. "hard to get bills passed on financial reform" Now why should THAT be? BIG FAT FINANCIAL LOBBY GROUPS....Americans are fattened up with easy credit and debt then fed to the bankruptcy system as rates rise for any infraction or none at all. And credit lines are being cut. A bill passes and it take 9 months to take effect, that give credit card companies 9 months to shaft you first and get around it. AND THEY ARE ARROGANT.

WHY is it that payroll advance joints dot the landscape like chicken pox bumps? Gov for the people? yeah right.....we can't afford justice....but the fat cats can and they plan on staying fat...as we whither the f away.

What you see playing out in the stock mkt is an in your face play.....

Now I see my comments have whithered away too, hope you haven't given up all hope....I wont stop my blog either way....it's what I do

D

RUBBER CHICKEN PART 2

Pre Turkey Day and Fri after TEND to be more bullish, so I am not expecting any serious decline to begin here, and the volume is pathetic....whole rally from March has been haunted by diminishing volume, ABOVE we have 50 FIB of SPX at 1120 ish, the TRIPLE TOPS in the Transports, and now a VIX at 20.45 last I peeked close to where other market declines began.

But sellers have not rested control away from bulls, so ignore fundamentals for any argument.

This country and financial system are in serious jeopardy. And yes down the road our RESERVE currency and world power at stake too.

AS we pour money down the drain into idiotic subsidies and stimulus the housing market nor the economy is responding, and you neighbor may be one of those told not to pay his mortgage or has had it reduced, while you pay all of yours....maybe having 2nd thoughts

Retailers after the Holiday will see where they stand, many making last thereof.

NO help for small business, no help for man ON the street, all efforts sent to Wall Street care of the cronies and lobbyists....I bet their XMAS will be super.

DO NOT TRUST MSM to give you ANY facts, or truths, we have NO EVIDENCE (and todays revision of GDP to 2.8%) of any V shaped recovery as in evidence from the stock market. Maybe companies bottom line is leaner from CUTS (HEAD COUNT REDUCTION) but one companies head count cut is anothers customer...sooner or later its beggar they neighbor.

Money flows into THINGS like copper, wheat, gold, stocks.....when it should be going INTO JOB CREATION and NOT road repair....and what's $200B divided into $14 T economy?

IMHO we are in PHASE ONE of DEFLATION and DEPRESSION not PHASE ONE of primary uptrend...now some may like to call it that a primary uptrend, I think such is perverse description of what I witness...on the street

D

UNDERWATER

Rebound? must I call it that was WEAKER than originally estimated instead of 3.5 GDP the REVISED # was 2.8% and all of that was GOV stimulus.

TRILLIONS of dollars pumped into system, and this is all we got to show for it? what is really wrong then? DEFLATING DEBT BUBBLE

BIZ INVESTMENT -4.1% Band CREDIT CONTRACTING.....8 MILLION JOBS LOST....stock market up

HOUSING IMPROVING? 23% of ALL mortgages are "UNDER WATER" according to CNN report this AM.........stock mkt up......real world UPSIDE DOWN>.........Banksters rolling in it....your GOV clueless. (PS. banks however are carrying these mortgages like they're at FACE VALUE......just a prank I guess to fool you) I believe most banks are bankrupt

D

Monday, November 23, 2009

SURPRISE

I find this formation interesting. Triple top.
U S$ falls, stocks rise.

THE NEW CHINA MIRACLE


Thank g-d for cheap sneakers and a bunch of shit we don't need, destroy their landscape and kill their people all for world dominace and we eat it up.
D

K WINTER IS HERE

Repost of link to best K site, if YOU are REALLY interested in educating yourself to what is going on then you will read this

Like in 2002 and now again in 2009 the authorities are trying to DENY the purging and HEALING of the whored financial system, that when this last happened back in 1930's the GREAT DEPRESSION like the great forest fires actually renew growth, life.

The idiots in charge are fighting this and think they can induce a huge inflationary bias, but then why such a divergence between stock price direction and long term yield? WHY are so many $'s fleeing into bonds?

If for not a cheap magicians' accounting trick when mark to market was SUSPENDED most banks would be seen as insolvent.

We are burdened by a great moutain of debt which has grown from previously FED induced bubbles, and now in the greatest insult to human intelligence, the FED is trying to do it once again!!!!!! TONS of new money printing, more than doubling Money BAse in all of its history of decades of printing, in just a few months time.....should tell you something about WHY and what scares them so much to do this.

BUT the debt mountain has climbed so high, there is NO re-inflating it. Consumer behavior is changing and now they are trying to SAVE but being PUNISHED with NO YIELD for doing so.

What kind of policy tries to more greatly indebt its society, coerce them to spend, and not to save and invest?

WHAT KIND OF SYSTEM allows the transfer of wealth from and shift burdon of debt to the PUBLIC?

Those responsable for current crisis are being enriched, even given lavish bonuses and free money to profit as the AMERICAN citizen is drowning? WHAT kind of system?

Money flows into STOCKS and little else. MY GUESS as I eye today's futures (I have talked about MOnday bullish bias) is manipulating the stock markets is still possible, even as MANY divergences are screaming for even a SHORT TERM correction.

I am not sure THE TOP is in. Monthly MACD cross remains bullish along with 50/200 EMA cross (both lagging a bit).

My BEST GUESS is this cyclical bull, brought about by record intervention and manipulation COULD last a year, and MIGHT end and coincide with potential END OF QUANTITATIVE EASING scheduled for next MArch 2010.

ALL of this has made the final pay the piper day MUCH MUCH WORSE than it would have been had THEY let nature take its course,

D

Sunday, November 22, 2009

THE SONG REMAINS THE SAME

from DOug Nolands weekly missive:



“Down payment requirements” have essentially nothing to do with the lagging U.S. economy. A historic financial Bubble fueled a housing mania. The Bubble collapsed and the mania won’t be reappearing anytime soon. As a reminder of the nature of manias, Nasdaq traded above 5,000 in March 2000 and sits at less than half that level almost a decade later. Japan’s Nikkei traded to 38,957 on December 29, 1989 and closed today at 9,498. Reflations may create new manias, but they don’t rejuvenate the disCredited ones."

The cronies in power must not have studied well their history or they would NOT be trying to reflate the housing bubble, but would be instead supporting small business and business investment, manufacturing.

Instead of handouts to the class who caused the financial crisis and actions which benefit them, they should have been BROKEN UP and any good separated and hence we would NO LONGER have TOO BIG TO FAIL influencing government policy.

Big banks are getting healthier by way of the yield curve and stick market trading at the expense of every day people being forced out of safe returns in search of yield of which the FED has taken away. THOSE CRONIES making money judgements forgot that saving and interest paid on them a sound banking and savings policy for years is a reasonable way to safely make returns which could be spent into the economy, that source is now repudiated.

Foreign Banks seeing inflation cannot raise interest rates or foster even greater carry U S $ trades as our rate sits at 0%..

BUBBLES ALWAYS BURST and leave behind sorrow and devestation, after going through 2 in last 10 years WHY hasn't gov policy and FED action learned their lessons?

I can think of only one reason, well 2. ONE, they are dumb as mud. TWO, GOV is not in control, WALL STREET IS and they look after their own and it has been telegraphed they cannot lose.

Duratek

Saturday, November 21, 2009

YOU VOTED FOR HIM



GOV run health care...into the ground?

If this bill passes, another step to 3rd world status.....will you sit by and let it happen? sure you will

D

Friday, November 20, 2009

END OF DAY "GONE FISHING"

Blah blah blah yada yada doh doh.

OH the excitement, the suspense, it's OPEX FRI and where theheck is the volatility , the volume?

Come on, we're at the cusp of greatness, a V shaped recovery......I see dead people....

Til SAT

D

WHY THE FED NEEDS TO GO!



WAKE UP AMERICA

D

CAN YOU TELL TIME?????????

http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html watch this and turn to STONE!!!!

If we don't do something about this, and the current gov and FED direction we will turn to dust and are headed to 3rd world status.

Keep up the good work BERNANKE, you nincompoop jackass.......just shoot the dollar in the head andget it over with

D

3 BRUTAL OPTIONS

READ ABOUT IT HERE LINK

THE DOLLAR CARRY TRADE



LINK TO KD SITE

DEFLATION IS ALL AROUND US

LBO's ARE SINKING MOODY's REPORT LINK

It isn't a matter of timing that you should be preparing for a deflationary BUST. If not for manipulated data that even there will be revised downward, $trillions spent to stimulate resulted in a resounding THUD, almost ALL of the reported 3.5% US GDP came from gov stimulus, when removed all those affected ground to a HALT.

The US $ even with all the ranting and negativity has not made a new low for awhile, it may, should be basing for a STRONG move up. As GOLD and DOW made new highs, under the covers, SILVER HUI, CRB index, RUT, Mid caps, DJU, Banking index and more refused to confirm.

DELL used to be one of the business stallwarts for the tech age, landed with a THUD last nigh and missed I am sure lowered estimates, it's a crock of poo businesses are doing anything resembling ramping up spending.

Our GOV is ambling in to control all facets of economy, Banking, Auto's, Insurance, HealthCare,Housing/Mortgages, executive pay....and who knows what else.....our FREE MKT system is corrupt and non existant.

GSE'S are the only one's lending, maybe 10% of funding coming from private sources.

Loans outstanding going all the way back to 1940 (where chart begins) never saw these loans CONTRACT as they are now, once started this new era of COnsumer conservatism , savings, and paying down debt will be impossible to derail....K WINTER HAS BEGUN.

Credit card companies and banks have become more restrictive in lending standards, HOW IS A CONTRACTION OF CREDIT BULLISH?????!!!!!

"THEY" will NOT be successful in their attempts to INFLATE debt away, BANKS sit like ZOMBIES not lending but have become trading desks moving the markets higher, with little SMALL investor participation....it is a Wall Street circle jerk...that ends badly.

$500 M BONE GS throws out to small business is insult to our intelligence and a joke! How about $500 B and we'll talk.

This HealthCare debate is nauseating, and so is any assinine carbon CAP and TRADE that has who else Goldman Sachs sitting right in front of the feeding trough. We can ILL afford to be taking on $Trillions more of UNFUNDED liabilities at a time our economy is imploding.

$3 TRILLION in CRE loans need to be dealt with coming do to be renewed....or defaulted.

13 wk Treasuries returning .05% doesn't sound like INFLATION. 10 YR return of 3.3% doesn't sound like INFLATION. SOUND MONEY GOLD is where the herd has ran and it may be topping.

If anyone can find a job after 6 months of looking find their pay cut at the KNEES, and many needing 2 jobs just to pay mortgage. REAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CLOSER to 18%

Banks are not lending, COnsumers are not borrowing, this is a V SHAPED RECOVERY???????

BANKS are hiding their losses behind a gov sanctioned change in accounting standards where the MARKET VALUE of the krap paper is not represented on their books.....peek a frickin boo.

A fantasy game of US $ trade circle jerkal and CHINESE force feeding on US treasuries is keeping long term int rates unusually low.

LOWEST MORTGAGE RATES IN HISTORY and we saw a 10.4% DROP in new home construction, if FED FUNDS RATES AT 0% is NOT helping in economic recovery what is it doing????? FUELING A FANTASY STOCK RALLY.

WHAT will put an end to this madness that also has the American people on the hook for any and all losses from almost anything?

How is a 40% loss of DOLLAR value since 2001 a good thing? THE DOW in GOLD TERMS has NOT had a rally from MArch, it is ALL AN ILLUSION.

FED POLICY has helped to get us here. SHOULD THEY POLICE the Banking system???? How well have they done? HEY....they are banks!!!!????? THE FOX IN HENHOUSE!!!

And lastly what worries me is the TREMENDOUS FLIGHT TO BONDS OF ALL KINDS including Municipal as a safe haven.....will this turn out like flight to one end of the ship TITANIC? WE ARE NOW ENTERRING PHASE IMHO of PRESERVATION....not hunting for yield....please BE CAREFUL!

D

Thursday, November 19, 2009

BRIGHTEN YOUR DAY

PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE GLOBAL COLLAPSE

Listening to KD on local talk show on way home, I realized something...WE'RE ALL SCREWED!!!

The only wat GOV and FED have so far gotten away with denying repudiation of debt is by floating $TRILLIONS in new debt with HELP OF CHINESE. Otherwise with such HISTORIC debt needs and issuance you tell me how 10 yr bonds yield a paltry 3.3%?? and 13 wk .05% yes DOWN from .06% how much money rammed into 13 wk notes just recently to cause a 20% move? something wicked this way comes?

PLEASE READY YOURSELF.......THE BANKS are INSOLVENT. THE BANKS HAVE NOT RID themselves of the bad debt.......05% 13 wk that doesn't spell I N F L A T I O N.

This is repeat of 1929 and JAPAN...YES IT IS....Japan tried to hide their bad banks....their mkt is downward spiral lately and is barely 20% of what it was 20 PLUS years ago.....that's what deflation does.

HOW DO AMERICANS pay for anything IF.....we end up with RAMPANT INFLATION and NO JOBS? NO WAGE GROWTH?

YOUR, OUR GOV is LYING to us, and if they really understood problem....they sure don't understand the relief.

OMG, what a daggone gambit the FED has embarked on and my friends....THE IN CROWD MADE BAD LOANS.......they get bailed out....Americans took bad loans....they go BANKRUPT.

WHY did the Wall Street punks.....get moved to PENTHOUSE as we get shoved into OUTHOUSE???

The market advances is pure BS and for their benefit.....you will hold as it goes down, they will sell. THEY will get HUGE bonuses as we go broke...and they are playing with OUR MONEY.

WE have back stopped the whole enchillada.

There is a SALE ON PITCHFORKS AT AMES>..oh bankrupt, WALMART

D

TRANSPORT ME TO A DIFFERENT TIME

TRES HOMBRE TOPS OF TRANSPORTS FROM BROKEN BEARISH WEDGE (what do they see?)
RUBBER CHICKEN MEETS THE ROAD

I think you CAN handle the truth, and I'll keep trying to bring it to you. Ladies, this blog is for you too! No question should go unasked if you desire to. We'll get through this
Duratek

HELLO K WINTER?


THE MORE THINGS CHANGE THE WORSE THEY GET

This pig of a Health Care BIll is being hailed by one Harry Reid DEM, as a "bill that will SAVE MONEY (HA) and create jobs"(HA HA). How can he say that will straight face? OVER 2,000 pages long, baffle them with BS? If it costs (I'm sure this accurate...not) $800 B over 10 years, triple that, where is the savings? Must be my English....we'll find money to take care of another 30 M people...and well we'll SAVE MONEY!

NO imagine how the people voting for Obama must feel now or did they know they elected a Socialist candidate>? IT'S BEND OVER GRAB YOUR ANKLES TIME here come the NEW TAXES....and TAXES KILL BUSINESS.

The mkt seemed ready to heave today, is it misdirection Thursday? I know it's options exp Fri.

Then we begin week with JIGGY Monday.....maybe later next week, weak volume and momo divergences will matter.

WAY TOO EARLY to even contemplate NAIL IN BULL COFFIN TIME, I had felt SPX 1120 ish was going to be tested....

Some are calling this stage ONE of PRIMARY TREND (up), and if I just look at charts I could say YUP.....strong technicals.....but then I read stuff.....

It's gotten boring, but the US $ and MKT is as one....$ rallied AM UGH stocks fall...gold recovers, dollar rally fades...losse pared, end of story no other story.

Since we have detached from any reality.......how does one figure out what is going on?

Just decide if you think the economy is in revival mode.....and understand you are riding MOMENTUM, and it could run for a longer period, but it probably will end with a horrible thud.......cheap stocks no more....value no more IMHO

I am watching natural gas, it is looking to put in a bottom I think.....the refiners too...I'm on the snoop.

We've enterred a period of contracting credit, it may last longer than anyone thinks, I used the FED's OWN charts to show NO OTHER PERIOD since 1940's (how far chart goes back) had such a DECLINE in outstanding credit.

To understand MORE on long waves, this seems like a good site

KONDRATIEF WINTER you might have to back to 1930 to find other time in history where CREDIT WAS CONTRACTING......The Kondratieff Wave (start there)

D

ROOSTING DIVERGENCE TIME?


TRIPLE YOUR PLEASURE

Also take note NOV was a "LOWER" low.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST

I've never seen a bigger pile of krap than this market. Even when the data screams BS to a recovery of just about ANYTHING, no pullback.

It's a market for the pro's, filling their pockets. ATTACHED to no reality, no value..and I'll say again I have NO crystal ball but what I DO KNOW, is bubbles end badly, keeping blowing .

Look at them housing starts…I don’t know when next BIG move should be down…..magic fingers helping to ignore more proof of BROWN SHOOTS!
"talk that housing starts were stabilizing hit a snag in October as new housing starts plummeted 10.6% to 529,000 units from 592,000. The consensus forecasted an increase in starts to

The details in the data don't look pretty.
Single family starts fell 6.8% to 476,000 and is at its lowest level since May.
Multi-family starts fell a whopping 34.5% as only 53,000 new units were started. Multi-family starts have never been this low since the index was created in 1959."

WHAT DOES AND DOESN'T ADD UP

LONG WAY TO "NORMAL"
A FIRST, A DROP IN CONSUMER CREDIT (Kondratief Winter proof?)

WHERE ARE THE LOANS MY FRIENDS????? WHERE IS THE EXPANSION OF CREDIT??


HERE in lies the issue at hand. Below observe the MASSIVE increase in the BASe money (fractional reserves for now) here you see VERY LITTLE of this FUNNY MONEY is getting into real economy! Tells me FED plan is utter failure....as far as productive gains are concerned.



What you are witnessing here is unlike any period before it. LOOK what a pimple worth of ZUTZ did in 1999-2000 (Y2K FREAK OUT). AFter a BRIEF consolidation after doubling size of money base known to exist in just a FEW SHORT MONTHS, we are OUT of shaded area (R) BUT it's "on the move again!" IF we are OUT OF RECESSION, WHY is there a need to keep going here?




How in the world will the FED DRAIN this swamp? ANy wonder gold is soaring?




PROOF the TRILLIONS POURED INTO SYSTEM ARE NOT MAKING ITS WAY INTO PRODUCTIVE SECTORS!





The unemployed is the sector still growing.




I SPIT on less bad is good. PROOF housing price correction has much farther to go.
*(refer to previous post chart on home values) FACT $3 TRILLION PLUS of commercial loans are coming due and many may default. BANKS ARE NOT LENDING, CONSUMERS ARE NOT ASKING= CREDIT CONTRACTION=RALLY IS FULL OF BS.




ALL that money created sitting there, the FED is f'ing with us. They are still paying Banks for letting the money SIT AS A SCREEN SAVER.....why should they lend?




FACT. if all that money, more created than in history by a mile, it has to go somewhere? I CONTEND the FED'S aim is to make banks healthy by STOCK MARKET TRADES!!!!!!!




If you ask me, manipulating the stock market, sticking a STAKE in the US $, as main stream MAIN STREET SUFFERS AS WALL STREET BAnkers and traders get fat....well it's PERVERSE!!!




"Castles made of sand, slip into the sea.....eventually...yeah yeah"




Dow has recaptured 50% of losses from Bear in just months. S and P 500 level is 1121....the market has put the horse before the cart again.




In the recorded history of this measure, NEVER BEFORE has yr/yr Change in consumer credit gone NEGATIVE!..........UNTIL NOW! so has MONTH/MONTH.
RECOVERY WORTHY OF CURRENT VALUATIONS?






(Thanks for following MICK! )
Duratek
















ONE DOWN 3 TO GO?


Newobservations.net LONG way to go to get to NORMAL!

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

KEEN VIDEO

http://www.zerohedge.com/print/30427 worth a view off zero hedge site.

Wouldn't surprise me to see over 11,000 DOW and 1200 SPX, this is opex week, don't see huge decline coming in here.

Staus quo, FLOOD like NOAH AND THE ARK flowing into equities to keep this PROPPED UP.

IT is what it is, until it isn't. BEcause we have not reached a new paradigm and the debt load is huge and not dealt with, it all comes to an ugly end.

AN EXIT strat is going to come in handy

RISING BDI AT Yellow LIne Resistance


$ has bounced back overnight, who out there expects any kind of dollar rally?
SPX earnings this QTR with fake 3.5% *(to be revised DOWNWARD) gives us a forward yr of $60 profits. Fair value would be 15 X and a SPX at 900.
But GDP was ALL Stimulus and it's going to be reduced to maybe 3.0 and will the coming quarters be able to produce expanding economies?
Current PE is now 26 making the market extremely over valued. UNDER 2% dividend yield one of the lowest on record. They may have produced a Cyclical Bull but no Secular trend has began with such over valuations or declining volumes on rally days as we have witnessed almost the entire bullish trend.
market has been rising more so from a withdrawl of selling
D

Monday, November 16, 2009

IS THIS THE FATE WAITING FOR THE US?????


Maybe Paulson diverted (or stalled) destiny with the GRIM REAPER, he diverted money from buying bad bansk asstes to infusing money DIRECTLY INTO THE BANKS.
maybe the Banks are better, APPEAR better, but 2 things bother me. One they aren't lending, so the money making them look and feel better is from TRADING THE MARKET. TWO the bansk BAD ASSETS mostly SIT on or OFF their books and mostly at face value.
SO IMHO the Banks are ZOMBIE banks, feeding off blood of Americans,eating their brains and enriching themselves...as we get ever poorer.
Todays wonderful rally had 85% up volume but it again came on dwindling volume.
Surely this market has surpassed what I thought capable, but other targets I had are fast approaching, one is 1120 on SPX.
I am surprise VIX is NOT below 20 with 60% rally. THIS IS OPEX WEEK, crazy things happen, I think a high is put in by wed-thurs....ST maybe.
I LOATHE a rally that is based on reports of improvment, sold as "more signs of recovery" when it is mostly FABRICATED ON LIES and MISTATEMENTS.
So sales are showing recovery is here? why dont we take the last 2 reports and combine them. ADD back in the HUGE downward revisions to SEPT (see they tell you how great it is to your face, then behind your back following month they have to come clean) you get a 2 month .1% MISS in expectations.
AND WHY DON'T TAX RECEIPTS BEAR OUT the data?
You rally on LIES and FALSE HOPES, at some point the laughing gas has to be turned off.
IF ALL WAS SO fing well, lift us off 0% interest rates and shitload of stim someone gotta pay for?
D

BERNANKE GAME STILL ON

SPEACH BEGAN AT 12 PM

ARE WE COUNTING ON THIS MORON?


“we will continue to monitor…..our dual mandate of MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT AND PRICE STABILITY “

LOSS of 8 MIL JOBS all of last 10 years growth, US $ has fallen from 120.00 in 2001 to under 75 now loss of 40% of value. GOLD is $1,123 (“commodity prices have risen lately…”)

Bernanke “how am I doing?”

WORDS TO RALLY ON

from BEN'S OWN BALD LIPS

“the best thing I can say about the labor mkt right now is that it may be getting worse more slowly….”

Friends, all I can say is if you read the Bernanke piece I posted and step back and look at stock market action....and don't come away understanding how manupilated and rediculous the valuations and action has become, then you never will.

D

STILL IN PLAY

But so is the liquidity game......Bernanke on economy
Stocks Soar as Retail Sales Rebound in October- AP
Stocks rose in morning trading Monday after a new report showed retail sales rebounded more than expected in October because of a boost in auto sales.
Frineds this is such horseshit, sorry, add back in the .8% DOWNWARD REVISION to SEPT and this is a miss....a SICK game of deception...
D

MARKET IN STATE OD DISBELIEF

FED:

"Consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 6 percent in the third quarter of 2009. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of10 percent, and nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 3-3/4 percent. In September, consumer credit decreased at an annual rate of 7-1/4 percent."

EYE OPENER

This gets updated tomorrow, Retail sales today at 8:30. Futures show positive opening, Monday's tend to be bullish. Options Expiration this Friday.
Here's you joke of the day data. My guess is the MSM will NOT mention the GROSS DOWNWARD REVISION to prior data..take a look.
Tax receipts do NOT confirm any meaningful pickup in COnsumer sales....would that EVEN make any sense?
Back out GOV stimulus and you got nothing
D

Saturday, November 14, 2009

"IF THIS IS RECOVERY"

NEWEST JOHN MAULDIN LINK HERE

IF we actually HAD a recovering economy and Consumer we would see it in the TAX revenue, obviously we don't.

People may think I don't want recovery, with my Bearish leaning, so untrue. I am a businessman and I want what is best for this country. and we aren't getting it. We are experiencing the largest SHIFT in wealth in the countrys history.

ALL those TRILLION $$'s now held outside of this country and we are headed to need to borrow another $10 Trillion or more over the coming 5-10 years....how can we say this is the richest country in the world?

If people don't wake up what is left will be stolen from them.

D

30M LOOK AT SPX ACTION


DOW VALUE IN $ AND SENSE

Current rally is like CHinese food, you eat a lot, then 30 minutes later you're hungry again!
Because as the $ loses value, we lose purchasing power as anything that is imported rises in price. The FED says "we will leave rates at 0% and keep stimulating for an EXTENDED period of time...." G20 said they will keep pedal to METAL.
SO under the premise that you don't fight the FED, so be long stocks has almost no one worried. FED got our back.
Now I don't know how long this can go, FED more than doubling its balance sheet and obviously picking up paper of much less value than it had. Our GOV backstopping everything.
Liquidity has to flow somewhere, unfortunately it isn't flowing ENOUGH into productive channels. A RISING STOCK MARKET helps Wall STreet, but not avg Joe as much.
How is the Consumer holding up? If they have job, OK. If not not so good. ANd after historic 60% ROMP in stocks, the Consumer Sentiment polls languish near their historic LOWS!
Bank Loans outstanding has been declining. STOCKS by almost any measure are overvalued....BUT FED got your back.
$ is trying to find support.
VOLUME ON UP DAYS has been DRYING UP ever since the beginning of this rally, NEW HIGHS HAVE CONTRACTED as the DOW AND SPX made new highs.
That in and of itself may not point to THE TOP, but it does show selectivity in buying and at least SOME ST caution until 1100 is taken out to woodshed.
Trans NOT at new high, but not far away.
Monday's tend to be bullish, if not so beware, NEXT FRIDAY is options expiration and tend to draw up stocks......
D

Friday, November 13, 2009

MARKET WRAP

What can I add to what I already covered this week? I'll think of somethng this weekend.....keep inflating this bubble, the higher it goes on NO fundamentals the father it will crash.

A JOKE!

Duratek

PHONEY BALONEY

DEEP THOGHTS FROM HUGH HENDRY

DOUBLE SPEAK

J.C. Penney reports sharp drop in 3Q profit- AP
Blockbuster loss grows as sales drop Reuters(Thu 11:18pm)

Stocks Rally as Earnings Offset Consumer Data- AP

Let's get this straight, market is excited about Consumer spending. Consumer sentiment is in a sharp decline. TRADE DATA points to resurgence of Consumer, but TAX RECEIPTS (REALITY) are DOWN!!??? Another stupid day of stock direction taken from inverse of US $...it's that easy

At some point this is going to be grab your ankles time!

D

SENTIMENT MISS

Maybe earnings beat estimates even as they PLUNGE from ALREADY REDUCED EXPECTATIONS making this one of the MOST EXPENSIVE MKTS IN HISTORY.

COnsumer Sentiment PLUNGED to 66, this is REAL DATA, WILL THE CONSUMER SPEND LIKE ITS 1999? OH minus some 8 MILLION of them?

D

RESPECT THE TREND LINES

MACD has been making lower highs as index made higher highs. We had BREAKOUT (DOWN) from wedge. We have had a touch (TEST) of lower wedge breakout....

FED BUYS 100% OF MORTGAGES

FED IS THE MORTGAGE MARKET thanks to one of our readers for the link. WE are tied to the GOV TEET and FED policy, even though they are mostly responsable for our out of control markets.

They decided it's OK to try and REFLATE ad BUBBLE, we are again the object of their PERVERSE EXPERIMENTS

D

ALL THE SAME AS MARKETS AND RISING BDI

Further evidence of the INVERSE relationship of almost everything else to the US $, here I use a SIMPLE 20 WK EMA and arrows show where S and R were found and how one could possibly follow trend for profits. There is a nicely formed UPTREND line for OIL and we have had a month of sideways action, that is either a consolidation FLAT pattern, or readying for a break lower, we have our trendline and that will help us observe rather than guess.
BDI is approaching "yellow" resistance line near June peak, ROC is extended, is this a sign of advancing ship traffic OR rising oil costs? The relationship presently with the US $ and almost everythng else is a NEW ONE. In the 2000 bear mkt, the $ rose into a 2001 high. There was NO sign of a $ carry trade then. USUALLY one would expect a STRONG US STOCK MKT would show itself with a STRONG IN DEMAND CURRENCY, that is not the case now.
Overnight the $ has slipped back some from Thursdays strong move and for now the futures are green hinting at a PLUS open near SPX 1091.
Obama is in Japan where 5 MINUTE questions can be answered with ONE minute responses.
Keep in mind any talk of RETAIL STRENGTH if YR/YR as 2008 was weak.
D

Thursday, November 12, 2009

WAKE UP AMERICA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WAKE UP!!!



ZERO % INTEREST FOR ONE YEAR (IDIOTS trying to reinflate bubble are yoy FING KIDDING ME??)
PLEASE WATCH THIS VIDEO, WATCH THE STOOGES AND RESPONSES. If you're breathing and alive leave me a comment to let me know I am getting thru to you.

D

OMG THIS BOZO HOLDS OUR FATE?




LET THIS SINK IN

U.S.A. is a country that is 233 years old and over half of its monetary base has been created since Helicopter Ben took over the reins in 2006.

WHAT A TRILLION $$'S LOOK LIKE



YUP, we got SOLD OUT. FED policies have failed, GOV policy impotent....have they reignited inflation? I showed you withy CPI chart...no they haven't

FED has panicked, shot their wad. THIS histric intervention....yeah what are THEY looking at that keeps interest rates at 0%??? sure as hell ain't a recovery!

I agree Mr Beck..down the road if this LOOT get sout....hyper inflation. GO SPEND AMERICA....WE ARE GETTING HOSED, Americans want to spend, retirees dont want risk and you get? SHIT 0% on your money if you save you are ripped off.

D

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES?

My sighted Resistance was SPOT ON, and the confluence I've been talking about came home to roost today. I am again VERY encouraged with my trading system and it's timing ability. I am trying to understand it better and react quickly to its signals.

One thing first about trading, sometimes you have to be PATIENT. You have ready my warnings to bears who think it HAS TO GO DOWN NOW....it doesn't have to do anything, you do your best to play the odds and LIMIT RISK. I ALWAYS USE STOP LOSS .PERIOD

The problem. Japan has stimulated themselves to death to the tune of 2X their GDP in deficits....one of the highest in civilized world. IT DIDN'T WORK, they are still mired in DEFLATION....20 PLUS years!!! Their BUBBLE BURST was FINANCING/BANKS and REAL ESTATE...sound familiar?

But Japan did NOT deal with the banking problems instead doing what we did ZOMBIFIED them......didn't make them realize the LOSSES.....and you get a Japanese mkt only 25% of what it was, with near 0% RATES ALL THE WHILE!!! sound familiar?

We have 3 MAJOR Banks control 50% of ALL BANK DEPOSITS!!!! IS that good?

We have GOV and FED complicit with allowing some to fail others to prosper and become BIGGER. FED will not allow any investigation.

NO rating agency complicit was ever taken to trial for what they did.

MOST of the toxic paper killing the system originated from 5 US BANKS.....the large US BANKS got almost $1 TRILLION BAILOUT FROM FED....seems fitting

Now these banks just TRADE FOR PROFITS with OUR MONEY and DON'T LEND and that's OK? WILL pay themselves a SULTAN's ransom that's OK?

If we don't FIX the banking system and realize the losses we will have wasted $trillions and made the situation worse, may already have. ARE the bank profits REAL if the bad paper is on their books at FACE VALUE? not MARKET VALUE? you see they changed the game on us.

SO we will INFLATE stock prices by a US $ short....and a nose dive it takes just as market bottoms..coincidence? US $ bounced today stocks down.

8 million jobs lost, income declining, loans outstanding declining, consumer confidence about at historic LOW....some of these stats have NEVER occurred before during a recovery period as we are told we a re in.

The MOVE in the stock market (most world mkts too ) seem overdone for what we see on the ground, so much so it hasn't even attracted that many normal folk to get sucked in....many NO LONGER TRUST THE GOV, WALL STREET or any of the many agencies whose job it is to protect and regulate......so maybe we need MORE AGENCIES? yeah right.

Money talks BS walks.....we get SOLD OUT and all we get is public lip service....great merry xmas!
They must think a fool is born every minute and none of us can think way out of wet paper bag.....I wont be a bagholder I wont be a LEMMING

Duratek

A CHANGE OF TREND FOR BEATEN US $?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s INO.COM is best site IMHO for gold and commodity updates, and unlike some others loads RIGHT UP!

$ up stocks down...wtf?
haaa
D

SCAM FACTORY

http://market-ticker.denninger.net DID someone/s have advance knowledge and profitted? NOOOOOOOOO 3COM

JOB LOSSES SHRINK to ONLY 502,000 FRIENDS this is stilL WORSE than after 911

AT some point after losing ALL THE JOBS CREATED the last 10 years.....well the losses SLOW DOWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN. almost 8 MILLION JOBS LOST since 2007......

MANY of these jobs are NEVER COMING BACK....I can hear them now trumpeting these pitiful but improving numbers as MORE proof economy is reviving...

D

2 SIDES TO EVERY STORY AM POST

NEW YORK – AP STORY HERE

>>The number of homeowners on the brink of losing their homes dipped in October, the third straight monthly decline, as foreclosure prevention programs helped more borrowers.

But foreclosure filings are still up 19 percent from a year ago, . said Thursday, and rising job losses continue to threaten the stabilizing trend.

More than 332,000 households, or one in every 385 homes, received a foreclosure-related notice in October, such as a notice of default or trustee's sale. That's down 3 percent from September.

Banks repossessed more than 77,000 homes last month, down from nearly 88,000 homes in September<<<

BUT HERE will be the headlines:

"Foreclosures dip 3 pct. in October from September"

WHat is MORE IMPORTANT:
"foreclosure filings are still up 19 percent from a year ago,"

You
see it's all in how the information is presented. WHAT will not be presented is how many SHOULD BE on the market as FORECLOSED being held off the market in a (off balance sheet?) SHADOW INVENTORY....almost like DIAMONDS held in Vaults in Russia and S.AFrica to keep Diamond prices HIGH...you knew about that right? LIKE XMAS, buying a DIAMOND RING has been SOLD TO YOU....

HERE IS SOME FACTS I DIG UP FOR YOU:

>>A vast “shadow inventory” of foreclosed homes that banks are holding off the market could wreak havoc with the already battered real estate sector, industry observers say.

Lenders nationwide are sitting on hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes that they have not resold or listed for sale, according to numerous data sources. And foreclosures, which banks unload at fire-sale prices, are a major factor driving home values down.

“We believe there are in the neighborhood of 600,000 properties nationwide that banks have repossessed but not put on the market,” said Rick Sharga, vice president of RealtyTrac<<

And you have also heard how some institutions like Fed Home Loan ADM are RENTING BACK homes so they don't sit empty.

I promised I would NOT turn oN CNBC anymore and, well this AM I did anyway and threw the TV BRICK at the idiot hosts and guest they trot on with their MEANINGLESS DRIBBLE. MY GOODNESS could they for once just tell it like it is?

MORE LINK HERE

Shadow' Foreclosures Could Saturate Housing Market
creditfyi.com
<7 million pending foreclosures
could flood the market in the near future, driving housing prices down.>>

Just like this data misrepresented, so is unemployment, so is protests our economy is ripping again. IT just ain't so!

CEO of COSTCO, those BIG BOX single digit margin BULK guys shouldn't worry but he said "fingers crossed consumers will spend this holiday"

Folks, is it not common sense if you TAKE OUT 8 MILLION used to be gainfully employed Americans OUT of the workforce, is it a CLUE XMAS shopping might be a TAD SUBDUED?

How in the world could the remaining shoppers carry the load for the missing 8 MILLION PLUS????

Do you understand now why the IN CROWD had to PUMP UP EQUITIES and INFLATE ANOTHER BUBBLE? There is no such thing as pay as you go, pay the piper for this crowd, foist it on the NEXT GENERATION.....

If we do NOT have situation of EXPANDING CREDIT, we have proof that Bank Loans are declining, Businesses are cutting back SPENDING, revenues are down, cutting heads gives you a profit these days......look upon the EVIDENCE the MSM doles out with a jaundiced eye....

I have showed you irrefutable evidence that the stock market gains have been brought about by the debasement of our currency....and not much else besides the one off STIMULUS that ONLY steals from any future demand. The attempt is to PUMP UP CREDIT DEMAND...it is failing.

We have a developing CRE (commercial real estate) crisis now, vacancies soaring

Even the HAIR CHANNEL will tell you >banks aren't lending< WHY DID GS change their designation as a bank? was it go get the teet of FED funds at 0%? And they make 80% of profits from "TRADING"??????? all those visits and phone calls to and from the Treasury and FED to these big banks..hmmmmmm BOY it's as if they knew what was coming....nahhhhhh

50% OF ALL BANK DEPOSITS NOW RESIDE IN JUST 3 BANKS?

What have they done, what have they done....

Duratek your truth seeker






Wednesday, November 11, 2009

DO YOU SEE WHAT I SEE?




HAS THE FED BEEN SUCCESSFUL IGNITING INFLATION?


CONSUMER CREDIT HAS FALLEN for 7 straight months

MIRROR IMAGE TRADING RALLY

Never before have I seen such a blatant connection between 2 trends.
From DAY 1 as the US $ was sent to the slaughter house, the INDEXES began to rally, DAY ONE!
There is nothing else going on. NO secrets, no recovery in economy. It's all about gaming the US $ and funneling this carry trade back into US EQUITIES and more.
This is how BUBBLES get formed, have you met a bubble you like the BURSTING AFTERMATH? This will be a doozy.
ANY weaker and the falling dollar could erupt a crisis. Strengthen and rally here, that crowded carry trade and SHORT $ play would get GORED.
Market is fully overbought, so not too many feel too worried about any kind of pullback here.
The CONSUMER is the AMERICAN ECONOMY, there is NO DATA supporting businesses picking up CAPEX (why would they?). BAnk loans continue to contract. 8 million to as many as double that out of work or underemployed.
If EXPANDING DEBT/CREDIT grows economies, and increases demand, what does falling bank loans outstanding and an expanding unemployed workforce do?
Duratek

DONE FOR THE DAY

Unless something wierd happens, I'm spent!

Read this on the US $ and stock market ties from KARL DENNINGER

I have shown charts of the inverse action BEGAN IN MARCH with US $ and stock market....that's all we got here not a penny more

D

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN NOTHING WORKS


It is amazing folks that here we sit, TRYING to recover from the worst financial BUBBLE BURST in anyone's recollection next to "GREAT DEPRESSION" which was brought about by FED RESERVE action on interest rates, leaving them TOO LOW for TOO LONG, set ablaze by too much debt too easy credit...too much STIM
And we are DOING EXACTLY THE SAME THING AGAIN!!!! but now if 1% was good enough to build the housing and debt etc bubble near killed us, well LET'S FING do it even better this time, lower to 0% and FLOOD with STIMULUS (doesn't work) and all kinds of new fangled FED gimmicks....talf, talcum powder twerp...etc.
Every doggone time we get in trouble these IDIOTS throw the same damn solution at problem.....what the heck!!!!!!!!
NOW, the money that should heal us is going into asset inflation, WONDERFUL!!!
G-d forbid AMERICANS have HAD it up to here, and want to HEAL their balance sheets...pay down debt, maybe say they got enough CHINESE made trinkets and good gahs......so what do we do?
ENTICE them to buy forward demand in KLUNKERS, HOUSE CREDITS, and FHLA is giving subprime lenders more money!!! HELL WHY EVICT or foreclose we'll just rent the place back to you! EUREKA MOMENT
TRUST ME, you are NOT going to reinflate the historic credit bubble we just went through, but that is what they are tying to do..INSTEAD it's all running into MATERIALS and PAPER STOCKS.....taking them to INSANE levels of valuation historically.
And screw the savers.....give them SQUAT....phhtttttoeey
GIVE THEM NO CHOICE but??????????????? RISKY ASSET CLASSES.
This isn't the way you heal and build a balanced economy this is a JOKE! ANY ASS could have come up with this plan....OMG
We have come to a confluence of points, US $ support, BOND YIELDS, FIBS FOR INDEXES, and important trend lines....(near 1100 SPX) and VIX has firmed..all short leash
I've used action here, little rebound from to get into IT again.....see what happens....the mystery of the rally is no mystery at all.....SOS
Duratek

KNOCK KNOCK KNOCKING ON WEDGIES DOOR

ANOTHER NEW HIGH WOULD LEAVE THE MACD IN GROSS DIVERGENCE

WEDGE WAS BROKEN BUT NOW WHAT?

CARL SWENLIN LINK TO DECISION POINT

It looks from the AM futures that the underside of channel break will be tested near 1100, IMHO a close back into channel would be another sign of market technical strength.

The weak 6 months of mkt wasn't so, will the coming best 6 months hold to form? WILL XMAS RETAIL SURPRISE TO UPSIDE?

Remember 2009 will be compared to WEAK 2008 yr/yr sales.

Remeber a LOT of good news is baked in, what is the current wall of worry?

Gold at $1,111 this AM, US $ in danger of falling out of control.

We have bought the rally, but it is detatched from mainstreet reality, that can happen with liquidity SPLURGE. GOLD to new record highs you would think would have Central bankers worried, but again they have been FIGHTING FOR INFLATION, is gold a signal of inflation?

Stock market obviously liked the employee head count reduction, shares will sometimes react well to bad numbers but when it sees action is taken, reduced head count means better chance for profits. In MOST cases we are not seeing a RISE IN REVENUES/SALES....remember many companies are MULTI NATIONAL and with weak dollar their sales will appear stronger than they actually are.

Economy cannot stand on own 2 feet, will it soon? BUT I ASK YOU isn't the key JOBS? to be able to expand credit and Bank loans, we need to expand workforce.

With all the JOB LOSSES you would think the worst of cutting is long over, but even when that is true, the hiring phase can take MUCH longer than most think.

WILL THE FED QE come to end in MArch as promised? WHEN will market reflect that? WILL appetite for our debt/bonds remain HIGH?

WILL 30 year BOND BULL (declining rates) continue?

ALL MAJOR BEAR MARKETS ended with single digit SPX PE's and near 6% DIVIDEND YIELDS. AT bottom we were near 13 and 2% yield, NOW yield is 1.96% !!!!!

AS LONG as liquidity FLOWS Into stocks, NO SIGNIFICANT DECLINE CAN OCCUR.

The issue will be when that slows or ends.....will the small investor come piling back into stocks or has some generational change in behavior occurred?

Buying stocks that are OVER VALUED usually ends in tears.

BANKS HAVE HOARDING AFFLICTION LINK HERE Briefing.com story shows excess Bank Reserves......friends, YES market has record surge...but WE barely have a "PULSE"
Duratek

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

US DOLLAR DECISION TIME


HOUSING RECOVERY?

I hear all kind of propaganda, but the truth is hard to hide. FHLA has taken over the job of subprime lender. tHE Gov IS NOW THE MAIN LENDER FOR HOUSING.

d

SPX 1095 MKT WRAP

The area I talked about this AM has held back rally today, it may be matter of formality but that and underside of broken wedge still intact.

D

LEADING TO CRASH OF 1987

Everything was coming up roses.....until they weren't.
But we were in bull mkt then, so this was absorbed. We are currently in SECULAR BEAR....big difference.
This rally is such BS and a charade, a fill your pockets GS and friends, it's an in your face you can't do anything about it too stupid to know we're jobbing you rally.....
When asked to turn the other cheek for this group be careful...
D

CHINA ECONOMIC MIRACLE


DOW IN REAL MONEY VS FALLING VALUE FIAT

BULLS, GREAT RALLY !

KarL Denninger on "THE RALLY"

>>There is no actual "rally" in the stock market as a consequence of fundamental improvement in the economy. Rather, the "rally" is a consequence of the dollar carry trade - a destructive Godzilla that has infested our capital markets as a direct and proximate result of Bernanke's and Geithner's policies.<<

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1608-Repeat-After-Me....-There-Is-No-Carry.html

IMAGINARY WORKERS

Last Friday's unemployment picture showed ONLY 190,000 jobs lost (we need like 100,00 GAINS to equal just people coming into workforce) BUT from the insane NET'BIRTH GOV model they ADDED 86,000 jobs (like fiat) OUT OF THIN AIR......this model (IN GOOD TIMES MAYBE) figures these jobs came from small BIZ they don't survey.....NOT BLOODY LIKELY

D

ANOTHER PLAUSABLE OUTCOME

Now it makes sense. MAKING HIGH FOR THIS MOVE NOW.....Fall into next March 2010…that will LOOK like test of 666, go to NEW HIGH….the meltup creates hyper inflation ,
BOND BUBBLE BURSTS RATES SOAR, deficit chokes off real economy….another financial maybe derivative crisis, no quivers left….SPX 300 into 2012 or earlier.

MONEY GOTTA GO SOMEWHERE, with NO REAL EFFECT on real economy, this make believe world can exist for awhile, as the interior of humanity slips away. The players are all dumping and distributing IMHO, the PUBLIC having NOT Bought into this YET....at some point could jettison the BOND allotments and pour into equities that will give us our final TOP and maybe new highs.....then when it is understood how we got there, POOOOOOOOFFFFFFFFFFF, "castles made of sand slip into the sea...eventually"

WE had a chance last March to take our medicine, and purge the system. Instead we get this melt up.

TODAY I am monitoring a possible double top on SPX at 1095 and that underside of broken wedge on SPX is still in play until its not. 1095 ish is where we reversed today so far.

Lastly, this is a REPRIEVE, MAKE THE MOST OF IT, PAY DOWN DEBT, make sure you get into SAFE ASSETS, when this folly ends whenever I don't care...there will be HELL TO PAY. This time they REALLY DID IT!

lovely

NY POST JOHN CRUDELE

TRUE UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES LINK HERE

JUST A MOMO EVENT LIKE NO OTHER, a DESPERATE ATTEMPT OF ELITE to distribute to a NEW BAGHOLDER and it's working

If it seems unreal given TRUE economic backdrop, well it is.

D

HOW THINGS CHANGE AND REMAIN THE SAME

Do we all know how we got HERE? Let's take a moment and look back.

Because of the FED leaving interest rates TOO LOW (1%) after tech bubble burst and 911, this fostered one of the most hsitoric momumental financial bubbles ever. Anyone got credit to buy a home creating a subprime bubble, and with ratings agency's complicate by giving most AAA ratings, the BANKS responsable packaged them up MBS's, and sold them around the world.

As long as real estate prices kept rising, the plan worked great. This fostered even more SPECULATION, which kept prices rising even more, obviously well beyond their inherant values. THEN the game ended.......problems arose at the finacial giants, BEAR STERNS and LEHMAN BROS AND COUNTRYWDIE etc etc.....the PONZI SCHEME had ended abruptly....leaving the world's financial system in crisis.

How did we fix it? BY PRINTING MASSIVE amounts of FIAT money, manipulating interest rates down, FED funds to 0% and all kinds of new programs TALF, TARP and of course QE.

SHortly after, complaints about having to RECOGNIZE these assets as proper MARKET VALUE, was making the banks even sicker. They would need to raise capital to be within Banking capitalization guidelines.

The more they recognized, the bigger the losses grew, the more they went in the hole. THE GAO stepped in and abolished MARK TO MKT VALUE, and replaced it with? MARK TO MODEL? any model?

FED FORCED banks to accept $BILLIONS, so we figured to loan it out, if we dint do this all would be lost. It fell silent that the architechts of this saviour plan were WALL STREET INSIDERS.

THE TOO BIGGER TO FAIL BANKS were born.

What did they do with all that FREE MONEY? LEND IT OUT TO REPAIR ECONOMY to grow it? NO NO NO, they used it to INVEST in STOCKS and things and bring profits to themselves....and record bonuses to be paid....while shmuck on the street lost his job and home and got no help, no bailout.

THE TRILLIONS went into speculation and it would seem the forming of a SUPER BUBBLE....is this all the FED CAN DO? ignore real world situations, lower int rates as response....form even more bubbles? WHAT GOOD ARE THEY THEN?

Now because of this we have born the mutha of all rallies from MARCH LOWS....and the 3.5% GDP # is proof Recession is over and the plan worked....and market values are justified....

3.5% if you believe it was all GOV stimulus, some inventory rebuilding nothing more.....and they can't take it away. Because instead of pouring money into some productive means, fixing what was wrong, they pissed it away and made the big banks even bigger with more power and all they do is TRADE THE MKT, they don't lend.

Commercial Real Estate is popping, another reason banks dont lend.

In every prior recovery cycle DEBT OUTSTANDING has risen, but not this time, bank loans continue to CONTRACT.

Consumer confidence usually SOARS, not this time.

Historical BEAR MKT BOTTOMS (NEW BULL) valuations were not present again in MArch.

PERSONAL INCOME IS DECLINING.

CASH IN MUTUAL FUNDS ONLY 4%.

We are STILL seeing 60 year old records broken...like PLUNGING Residential and Commercial real estate values.

Let me repeat a CONTRACTION IN BANK LOANS OUTSTANDING (how is this proof of recovery?)

If a LITTLE goosing before y2K fueled a viscious tech bubble....hardly noticeable on 30 year chart from fed, what is going to happen with more than DOUBLING ADJ M base in a matter of months??????? HOW DO WE BACK OUT OF THIS, WHY IS GOLD $1,100?

RATE of NET FIXED NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT IS NEGATIVE yr/yr. HOW DOES THIS FUEL RECOVERY?

A NEGATIVE yr/yr change in personal income, maybe an historic first, HOW DOES THIS FUEL RECOVERY?

8 million have lost jobs since 2007. 10.2% joblessness, or the U6 17.5% level....how will this effect overall CONSUMER SPENDING?

A 30 year bond bull, pattern of rising prices, falling rates......and FEd at 0% where to now? OTHER GREAT BULLS were FED from falling rates from MUCH HIGHER LEVELS.

ACCESS to credit has EVAPORATED for SMALL BUSINESS, they hire 90% of all workers, how does THIS FUEL RECOVERY?

THE DOW IN TERMS OF GOLD as I showed has had NO RALLY.

BULLS< enjoy it while it lasts, but the AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE SICK OF SMOKE AND MIRRORS and promises of change and never getting any.

We went on an over consumption credit/debt historic excess ORGY, and now with this in REVERSE, with FED and GOV stimulus and FIAT OUT OF THIN AIR..we will avoid the corrective phase? INSTEAD THE ASSHOLES are pumping it right back up and I ASK YOU "what happens when it fails?"

Duratek

Monday, November 09, 2009

RUBBER CHICKEN MEETS THE ROAD

If the BREAK of the MARCH rally uptrend meant anything, keep your eyes peeled here! Below the 4 higher highs in price come with 4 lower lows in MACD

WILL THIS "END IN TEARS"? MONDAY MKT WRAP

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/11/sp-futures-daily-chart.html

The bulls are laughing, remember the bulls STILL HOLD from over 14,000 on the DOW.

This rally DEFIES all logic, prudence and shows the extent those in power will go to keep the lie going.

I'm sorry but this will end badly. I have WARNED the over eager top calling Bears to CHILL, and I am NOT short presently.....don't want to add insult to injury.

It will be interesting to see what the HURRY was to get to these trendline breaks.......and when asked what the reason for this wonderful rally, well no one really knows or cares.

No one cares where the money IS coming from, as the regular guy has drawn money down from equities and gone into bond funds....highly unusual.

Well we get GDP of 3.5% FABRICATED
We get 10.2% unemployment (ITS CLOSER TO 17%) many given up or underemployed....see you NO LONGER count when you drop off rolls.

Birth Death model adds 855,000 small business jobs during a time we actually lost 2.8 MILLION from March....amazing these stat guys.

And expanding bank loans are usually synomonous with economic expansion...but bank loans are CONTRACTING.

And this:

"Fannie Mae needs another $19 billion from the Treasury. It will get it. Next quarter, it will be back for more -- lots more. This is going to go on for years."

You see now FHLA is in charge of making all those great subprime loans that are now defaulting smart play !!!

And the Banks don't record their stuff at market value anymore....I mean WHY do that?

In the land of OZ, anything is possible.....even fabricating a rally that GOLD says DOESN'T EXIST

My goodness when this folly comes to end are we going to take it up the keester....

Duratek

G20 STIMULUS SAVES THE DAY

But tell me how good all the stimulus and bailouts have helped economy up til now? We have lost additional 3 million jobs since March, and bank credit has continued to contract.

It's great markets are rising, just not for the right reasons.

D

"FUND FLOWS, CAUTION FOR STOCKS

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/08/business/economy/08stra.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=In%20Fund%20Flows,%20a%20Caution%20for%20Stocks%20&st=cse

WHERE TO NOW?

2 circled areas, 1122 50% FIB retrace and UNDERSIDE OF BREKEN UPTREND LINE from March STILL IN PLAY

WHAT RALLY????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

MARCH UPTREND IN SPX


I beleive for the ST action to test underside of BREAK will be pivotal.
ALso watching US $, Bonds, and VIX value KEY!
D