Monday, November 30, 2009
If it ain't a DEAL shoppers not interested, and nobody is comparing the sales figures to 2008 and reminding you how pathetic they were.
No proof of a v shaped recovery except in the stock mkt....somebody is wrong.
That stat is key IMHO, 23 MILLION MORE but spent on avg less and 2008 was a bad retail year, so comparisons were easy.
And I am worried that these 23 million more are the ones who might have waited and spent in the next 3 weeks leading up to xmas. If MORE were shopping and spent less per person…doesn’t bode well. Bargain low margin door busters drove more people out and the rest of the way wont be pretty
Sunday, November 29, 2009
The performance to date in 2009 mirrors 2003 blast off, BUT the fundamental backdrop couldn't be more different.
One important fact was the job market was expanding, not shedding 8 million jobs. Credit was set to BLAST OFF into a bubble and expanded at historical rate fueling economic tsunami and earnngs miracle. NOW we have declining credit and bank loans and companies have been lopping heads and cutting back on expansion plans and capital spending.....instead of BANKS LOOSENING standards they are TIGHTENING and CUTTING credit lines.....INSTEAD of GOV's rolling in TAX RECEIPTS they are funding starved.
STOCK performance couldn't hardly be more alike, economic and finacial back drop couldn't be more diferent.
The playbook for Institutions and financials is coming off same page that always seems to work, on a very different economic backdrop, BUT in the DEC trading days ahead, with possibly BONUSSES at stake.....will the horses bolt out of the stalls or KEEP rolling the dice?
WILL MONDAY bring the usual bullishness it does, and stories of FULL shopping malls and Consumers showing no fear or debt hangover? EVEN though 8 million have been taken out of the game since 2007?
NO, I don't have crystal ball nor do I know when the fluffing game ends, when it does I DO know damn good chance....this rally will be seen as a cyclical bull WITHIN a SECULAR BEAR and that ain't good.
IF YOU have gains and I would be on the lookout for signs the gig is up
Saturday, November 28, 2009
thanks to jesse cafe for heads up.
FED UP? IS THIS SOME CRAZY SHIT? OVERSTATED? TRUE? RACIST? SCAREY? ALL MAY BE TRUE
WAKE UP AMERICA OBAMMA is pandering to the SAME in crowd as BUSH, the SAME BANKS who almost destroyed the financial system are being HOISTED UP on a pedestal and being made even STRONGER.....there's your "CHANGE YOU CAN BELEIVE IN" what a HYPOCRITE
And remember these very words SPOKEN by GOV OFFICIAL...Rahlm emmanuel
"YOU NEVER WANT A SERIOUS CRISIS TO GO TO WASTE"
How will market react next week will help determine short term, as Dubai is dealt with and we get reactions to Black FRI shopping. Initial reports seem to imply hey what was all the worry about?
But to draw in shoppers low or no profit door busters were used, how couldn't shoppers be more cautious? ANY comparisons will be to a WEAK 2008.
Is there any sign yet the liquidity flow that has moved markets since March has ended? Might hedge funds want to BOOK PROFITS?
When SERIOUS technical damage is done to markets then let's begin looking for that TOP
Friday, November 27, 2009
IS DUBAI A HARBINGER OF PROBLEMS?
Thursday, November 26, 2009
(AP:LONDON) World stock markets tumbled Thursday as investors fretted over the debt problems at Dubai World, a government investment company, and the continuing slide in the dollar, which earlier fell to a 14-year low against the yen.
Markets are usually relatively quiet when Wall Street is closed for a holiday, as it is Thursday for Thanksgiving Day. Not so today, as the rest of the world digested the stunning news from Dubai that the government's flagship investment company was in financial trouble.
European markets followed Asia lower with the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares closing down 170.68 points, or 3.2 percent, at 5,194.13, having been out of action earlier for over three hours because of technical problems.
Germany's DAX fell 188.85 points, or 3.2 percent, to 5,614.17 while the CAC-40 in France was 129.93 points, or 3.4 percent, lower at 3,679.23.
Sentiment in stocks was dented by the news that Dubai World, which is thought to have debts totaling around $60 billion, has asked creditors if it can postpone its forthcoming payments until May. That stoked fears of a potential default and contagion around the global financial system, particularly in banks and emerging markets.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
ALL other things are shown going in OPPOSITE direction.
"Still, analysts say claims must drop to near 400,000 for several weeks to signal actual growth in employment. Economists expect 145,000 payroll job cuts for November, a slight improvement from the net loss of 190,000 jobs last month. But the economy must add 125,000 jobs a month just to keep the unemployment rate from rising."
RUBBISH! we're fed a pile of bull, so the bull can live. OH US $ taking it on the kisser below 75.00 again and GOLD nearing $1,200 YEAH keep pushing on that string FED
VIVE' LE FRANCE BABETTE
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Here is intro, watched it tonight, this is a must watch one hour show. "hard to get bills passed on financial reform" Now why should THAT be? BIG FAT FINANCIAL LOBBY GROUPS....Americans are fattened up with easy credit and debt then fed to the bankruptcy system as rates rise for any infraction or none at all. And credit lines are being cut. A bill passes and it take 9 months to take effect, that give credit card companies 9 months to shaft you first and get around it. AND THEY ARE ARROGANT.
WHY is it that payroll advance joints dot the landscape like chicken pox bumps? Gov for the people? yeah right.....we can't afford justice....but the fat cats can and they plan on staying fat...as we whither the f away.
What you see playing out in the stock mkt is an in your face play.....
Now I see my comments have whithered away too, hope you haven't given up all hope....I wont stop my blog either way....it's what I do
But sellers have not rested control away from bulls, so ignore fundamentals for any argument.
This country and financial system are in serious jeopardy. And yes down the road our RESERVE currency and world power at stake too.
AS we pour money down the drain into idiotic subsidies and stimulus the housing market nor the economy is responding, and you neighbor may be one of those told not to pay his mortgage or has had it reduced, while you pay all of yours....maybe having 2nd thoughts
Retailers after the Holiday will see where they stand, many making last thereof.
NO help for small business, no help for man ON the street, all efforts sent to Wall Street care of the cronies and lobbyists....I bet their XMAS will be super.
DO NOT TRUST MSM to give you ANY facts, or truths, we have NO EVIDENCE (and todays revision of GDP to 2.8%) of any V shaped recovery as in evidence from the stock market. Maybe companies bottom line is leaner from CUTS (HEAD COUNT REDUCTION) but one companies head count cut is anothers customer...sooner or later its beggar they neighbor.
Money flows into THINGS like copper, wheat, gold, stocks.....when it should be going INTO JOB CREATION and NOT road repair....and what's $200B divided into $14 T economy?
IMHO we are in PHASE ONE of DEFLATION and DEPRESSION not PHASE ONE of primary uptrend...now some may like to call it that a primary uptrend, I think such is perverse description of what I witness...on the street
TRILLIONS of dollars pumped into system, and this is all we got to show for it? what is really wrong then? DEFLATING DEBT BUBBLE
BIZ INVESTMENT -4.1% Band CREDIT CONTRACTING.....8 MILLION JOBS LOST....stock market up
HOUSING IMPROVING? 23% of ALL mortgages are "UNDER WATER" according to CNN report this AM.........stock mkt up......real world UPSIDE DOWN>.........Banksters rolling in it....your GOV clueless. (PS. banks however are carrying these mortgages like they're at FACE VALUE......just a prank I guess to fool you) I believe most banks are bankrupt
Monday, November 23, 2009
Like in 2002 and now again in 2009 the authorities are trying to DENY the purging and HEALING of the whored financial system, that when this last happened back in 1930's the GREAT DEPRESSION like the great forest fires actually renew growth, life.
The idiots in charge are fighting this and think they can induce a huge inflationary bias, but then why such a divergence between stock price direction and long term yield? WHY are so many $'s fleeing into bonds?
If for not a cheap magicians' accounting trick when mark to market was SUSPENDED most banks would be seen as insolvent.
We are burdened by a great moutain of debt which has grown from previously FED induced bubbles, and now in the greatest insult to human intelligence, the FED is trying to do it once again!!!!!! TONS of new money printing, more than doubling Money BAse in all of its history of decades of printing, in just a few months time.....should tell you something about WHY and what scares them so much to do this.
BUT the debt mountain has climbed so high, there is NO re-inflating it. Consumer behavior is changing and now they are trying to SAVE but being PUNISHED with NO YIELD for doing so.
What kind of policy tries to more greatly indebt its society, coerce them to spend, and not to save and invest?
WHAT KIND OF SYSTEM allows the transfer of wealth from and shift burdon of debt to the PUBLIC?
Those responsable for current crisis are being enriched, even given lavish bonuses and free money to profit as the AMERICAN citizen is drowning? WHAT kind of system?
Money flows into STOCKS and little else. MY GUESS as I eye today's futures (I have talked about MOnday bullish bias) is manipulating the stock markets is still possible, even as MANY divergences are screaming for even a SHORT TERM correction.
I am not sure THE TOP is in. Monthly MACD cross remains bullish along with 50/200 EMA cross (both lagging a bit).
My BEST GUESS is this cyclical bull, brought about by record intervention and manipulation COULD last a year, and MIGHT end and coincide with potential END OF QUANTITATIVE EASING scheduled for next MArch 2010.
ALL of this has made the final pay the piper day MUCH MUCH WORSE than it would have been had THEY let nature take its course,
Sunday, November 22, 2009
“Down payment requirements” have essentially nothing to do with the lagging U.S. economy. A historic financial Bubble fueled a housing mania. The Bubble collapsed and the mania won’t be reappearing anytime soon. As a reminder of the nature of manias, Nasdaq traded above 5,000 in March 2000 and sits at less than half that level almost a decade later. Japan’s Nikkei traded to 38,957 on December 29, 1989 and closed today at 9,498. Reflations may create new manias, but they don’t rejuvenate the disCredited ones."
The cronies in power must not have studied well their history or they would NOT be trying to reflate the housing bubble, but would be instead supporting small business and business investment, manufacturing.
Instead of handouts to the class who caused the financial crisis and actions which benefit them, they should have been BROKEN UP and any good separated and hence we would NO LONGER have TOO BIG TO FAIL influencing government policy.
Big banks are getting healthier by way of the yield curve and stick market trading at the expense of every day people being forced out of safe returns in search of yield of which the FED has taken away. THOSE CRONIES making money judgements forgot that saving and interest paid on them a sound banking and savings policy for years is a reasonable way to safely make returns which could be spent into the economy, that source is now repudiated.
Foreign Banks seeing inflation cannot raise interest rates or foster even greater carry U S $ trades as our rate sits at 0%..
BUBBLES ALWAYS BURST and leave behind sorrow and devestation, after going through 2 in last 10 years WHY hasn't gov policy and FED action learned their lessons?
I can think of only one reason, well 2. ONE, they are dumb as mud. TWO, GOV is not in control, WALL STREET IS and they look after their own and it has been telegraphed they cannot lose.
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Friday, November 20, 2009
If we don't do something about this, and the current gov and FED direction we will turn to dust and are headed to 3rd world status.
Keep up the good work BERNANKE, you nincompoop jackass.......just shoot the dollar in the head andget it over with
It isn't a matter of timing that you should be preparing for a deflationary BUST. If not for manipulated data that even there will be revised downward, $trillions spent to stimulate resulted in a resounding THUD, almost ALL of the reported 3.5% US GDP came from gov stimulus, when removed all those affected ground to a HALT.
The US $ even with all the ranting and negativity has not made a new low for awhile, it may, should be basing for a STRONG move up. As GOLD and DOW made new highs, under the covers, SILVER HUI, CRB index, RUT, Mid caps, DJU, Banking index and more refused to confirm.
DELL used to be one of the business stallwarts for the tech age, landed with a THUD last nigh and missed I am sure lowered estimates, it's a crock of poo businesses are doing anything resembling ramping up spending.
Our GOV is ambling in to control all facets of economy, Banking, Auto's, Insurance, HealthCare,Housing/Mortgages, executive pay....and who knows what else.....our FREE MKT system is corrupt and non existant.
GSE'S are the only one's lending, maybe 10% of funding coming from private sources.
Loans outstanding going all the way back to 1940 (where chart begins) never saw these loans CONTRACT as they are now, once started this new era of COnsumer conservatism , savings, and paying down debt will be impossible to derail....K WINTER HAS BEGUN.
Credit card companies and banks have become more restrictive in lending standards, HOW IS A CONTRACTION OF CREDIT BULLISH?????!!!!!
"THEY" will NOT be successful in their attempts to INFLATE debt away, BANKS sit like ZOMBIES not lending but have become trading desks moving the markets higher, with little SMALL investor participation....it is a Wall Street circle jerk...that ends badly.
$500 M BONE GS throws out to small business is insult to our intelligence and a joke! How about $500 B and we'll talk.
This HealthCare debate is nauseating, and so is any assinine carbon CAP and TRADE that has who else Goldman Sachs sitting right in front of the feeding trough. We can ILL afford to be taking on $Trillions more of UNFUNDED liabilities at a time our economy is imploding.
$3 TRILLION in CRE loans need to be dealt with coming do to be renewed....or defaulted.
13 wk Treasuries returning .05% doesn't sound like INFLATION. 10 YR return of 3.3% doesn't sound like INFLATION. SOUND MONEY GOLD is where the herd has ran and it may be topping.
If anyone can find a job after 6 months of looking find their pay cut at the KNEES, and many needing 2 jobs just to pay mortgage. REAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE CLOSER to 18%
Banks are not lending, COnsumers are not borrowing, this is a V SHAPED RECOVERY???????
BANKS are hiding their losses behind a gov sanctioned change in accounting standards where the MARKET VALUE of the krap paper is not represented on their books.....peek a frickin boo.
A fantasy game of US $ trade circle jerkal and CHINESE force feeding on US treasuries is keeping long term int rates unusually low.
LOWEST MORTGAGE RATES IN HISTORY and we saw a 10.4% DROP in new home construction, if FED FUNDS RATES AT 0% is NOT helping in economic recovery what is it doing????? FUELING A FANTASY STOCK RALLY.
WHAT will put an end to this madness that also has the American people on the hook for any and all losses from almost anything?
How is a 40% loss of DOLLAR value since 2001 a good thing? THE DOW in GOLD TERMS has NOT had a rally from MArch, it is ALL AN ILLUSION.
FED POLICY has helped to get us here. SHOULD THEY POLICE the Banking system???? How well have they done? HEY....they are banks!!!!????? THE FOX IN HENHOUSE!!!
And lastly what worries me is the TREMENDOUS FLIGHT TO BONDS OF ALL KINDS including Municipal as a safe haven.....will this turn out like flight to one end of the ship TITANIC? WE ARE NOW ENTERRING PHASE IMHO of PRESERVATION....not hunting for yield....please BE CAREFUL!
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Listening to KD on local talk show on way home, I realized something...WE'RE ALL SCREWED!!!
The only wat GOV and FED have so far gotten away with denying repudiation of debt is by floating $TRILLIONS in new debt with HELP OF CHINESE. Otherwise with such HISTORIC debt needs and issuance you tell me how 10 yr bonds yield a paltry 3.3%?? and 13 wk .05% yes DOWN from .06% how much money rammed into 13 wk notes just recently to cause a 20% move? something wicked this way comes?
PLEASE READY YOURSELF.......THE BANKS are INSOLVENT. THE BANKS HAVE NOT RID themselves of the bad debt.......05% 13 wk that doesn't spell I N F L A T I O N.
This is repeat of 1929 and JAPAN...YES IT IS....Japan tried to hide their bad banks....their mkt is downward spiral lately and is barely 20% of what it was 20 PLUS years ago.....that's what deflation does.
HOW DO AMERICANS pay for anything IF.....we end up with RAMPANT INFLATION and NO JOBS? NO WAGE GROWTH?
YOUR, OUR GOV is LYING to us, and if they really understood problem....they sure don't understand the relief.
OMG, what a daggone gambit the FED has embarked on and my friends....THE IN CROWD MADE BAD LOANS.......they get bailed out....Americans took bad loans....they go BANKRUPT.
WHY did the Wall Street punks.....get moved to PENTHOUSE as we get shoved into OUTHOUSE???
The market advances is pure BS and for their benefit.....you will hold as it goes down, they will sell. THEY will get HUGE bonuses as we go broke...and they are playing with OUR MONEY.
WE have back stopped the whole enchillada.
There is a SALE ON PITCHFORKS AT AMES>..oh bankrupt, WALMART
NO imagine how the people voting for Obama must feel now or did they know they elected a Socialist candidate>? IT'S BEND OVER GRAB YOUR ANKLES TIME here come the NEW TAXES....and TAXES KILL BUSINESS.
The mkt seemed ready to heave today, is it misdirection Thursday? I know it's options exp Fri.
Then we begin week with JIGGY Monday.....maybe later next week, weak volume and momo divergences will matter.
WAY TOO EARLY to even contemplate NAIL IN BULL COFFIN TIME, I had felt SPX 1120 ish was going to be tested....
Some are calling this stage ONE of PRIMARY TREND (up), and if I just look at charts I could say YUP.....strong technicals.....but then I read stuff.....
It's gotten boring, but the US $ and MKT is as one....$ rallied AM UGH stocks fall...gold recovers, dollar rally fades...losse pared, end of story no other story.
Since we have detached from any reality.......how does one figure out what is going on?
Just decide if you think the economy is in revival mode.....and understand you are riding MOMENTUM, and it could run for a longer period, but it probably will end with a horrible thud.......cheap stocks no more....value no more IMHO
I am watching natural gas, it is looking to put in a bottom I think.....the refiners too...I'm on the snoop.
We've enterred a period of contracting credit, it may last longer than anyone thinks, I used the FED's OWN charts to show NO OTHER PERIOD since 1940's (how far chart goes back) had such a DECLINE in outstanding credit.
To understand MORE on long waves, this seems like a good site
KONDRATIEF WINTER you might have to back to 1930 to find other time in history where CREDIT WAS CONTRACTING......The Kondratieff Wave (start there)
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
It's a market for the pro's, filling their pockets. ATTACHED to no reality, no value..and I'll say again I have NO crystal ball but what I DO KNOW, is bubbles end badly, keeping blowing .
The details in the data don't look pretty.
Single family starts fell 6.8% to 476,000 and is at its lowest level since May.
Multi-family starts fell a whopping 34.5% as only 53,000 new units were started. Multi-family starts have never been this low since the index was created in 1959."
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Wouldn't surprise me to see over 11,000 DOW and 1200 SPX, this is opex week, don't see huge decline coming in here.
Staus quo, FLOOD like NOAH AND THE ARK flowing into equities to keep this PROPPED UP.
IT is what it is, until it isn't. BEcause we have not reached a new paradigm and the debt load is huge and not dealt with, it all comes to an ugly end.
AN EXIT strat is going to come in handy
Monday, November 16, 2009
LOSS of 8 MIL JOBS all of last 10 years growth, US $ has fallen from 120.00 in 2001 to under 75 now loss of 40% of value. GOLD is $1,123 (“commodity prices have risen lately…”)
Bernanke “how am I doing?”
“the best thing I can say about the labor mkt right now is that it may be getting worse more slowly….”
Friends, all I can say is if you read the Bernanke piece I posted and step back and look at stock market action....and don't come away understanding how manupilated and rediculous the valuations and action has become, then you never will.
Stocks rose in morning trading Monday after a new report showed retail sales rebounded more than expected in October because of a boost in auto sales.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
IF we actually HAD a recovering economy and Consumer we would see it in the TAX revenue, obviously we don't.
People may think I don't want recovery, with my Bearish leaning, so untrue. I am a businessman and I want what is best for this country. and we aren't getting it. We are experiencing the largest SHIFT in wealth in the countrys history.
ALL those TRILLION $$'s now held outside of this country and we are headed to need to borrow another $10 Trillion or more over the coming 5-10 years....how can we say this is the richest country in the world?
If people don't wake up what is left will be stolen from them.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Blockbuster loss grows as sales drop Reuters(Thu 11:18pm)
Stocks Rally as Earnings Offset Consumer Data- AP
Let's get this straight, market is excited about Consumer spending. Consumer sentiment is in a sharp decline. TRADE DATA points to resurgence of Consumer, but TAX RECEIPTS (REALITY) are DOWN!!??? Another stupid day of stock direction taken from inverse of US $...it's that easy
At some point this is going to be grab your ankles time!
COnsumer Sentiment PLUNGED to 66, this is REAL DATA, WILL THE CONSUMER SPEND LIKE ITS 1999? OH minus some 8 MILLION of them?
They decided it's OK to try and REFLATE ad BUBBLE, we are again the object of their PERVERSE EXPERIMENTS
Thursday, November 12, 2009
ZERO % INTEREST FOR ONE YEAR (IDIOTS trying to reinflate bubble are yoy FING KIDDING ME??)
PLEASE WATCH THIS VIDEO, WATCH THE STOOGES AND RESPONSES. If you're breathing and alive leave me a comment to let me know I am getting thru to you.
YUP, we got SOLD OUT. FED policies have failed, GOV policy impotent....have they reignited inflation? I showed you withy CPI chart...no they haven't
FED has panicked, shot their wad. THIS histric intervention....yeah what are THEY looking at that keeps interest rates at 0%??? sure as hell ain't a recovery!
I agree Mr Beck..down the road if this LOOT get sout....hyper inflation. GO SPEND AMERICA....WE ARE GETTING HOSED, Americans want to spend, retirees dont want risk and you get? SHIT 0% on your money if you save you are ripped off.
One thing first about trading, sometimes you have to be PATIENT. You have ready my warnings to bears who think it HAS TO GO DOWN NOW....it doesn't have to do anything, you do your best to play the odds and LIMIT RISK. I ALWAYS USE STOP LOSS .PERIOD
The problem. Japan has stimulated themselves to death to the tune of 2X their GDP in deficits....one of the highest in civilized world. IT DIDN'T WORK, they are still mired in DEFLATION....20 PLUS years!!! Their BUBBLE BURST was FINANCING/BANKS and REAL ESTATE...sound familiar?
But Japan did NOT deal with the banking problems instead doing what we did ZOMBIFIED them......didn't make them realize the LOSSES.....and you get a Japanese mkt only 25% of what it was, with near 0% RATES ALL THE WHILE!!! sound familiar?
We have 3 MAJOR Banks control 50% of ALL BANK DEPOSITS!!!! IS that good?
We have GOV and FED complicit with allowing some to fail others to prosper and become BIGGER. FED will not allow any investigation.
NO rating agency complicit was ever taken to trial for what they did.
MOST of the toxic paper killing the system originated from 5 US BANKS.....the large US BANKS got almost $1 TRILLION BAILOUT FROM FED....seems fitting
Now these banks just TRADE FOR PROFITS with OUR MONEY and DON'T LEND and that's OK? WILL pay themselves a SULTAN's ransom that's OK?
If we don't FIX the banking system and realize the losses we will have wasted $trillions and made the situation worse, may already have. ARE the bank profits REAL if the bad paper is on their books at FACE VALUE? not MARKET VALUE? you see they changed the game on us.
SO we will INFLATE stock prices by a US $ short....and a nose dive it takes just as market bottoms..coincidence? US $ bounced today stocks down.
8 million jobs lost, income declining, loans outstanding declining, consumer confidence about at historic LOW....some of these stats have NEVER occurred before during a recovery period as we are told we a re in.
The MOVE in the stock market (most world mkts too ) seem overdone for what we see on the ground, so much so it hasn't even attracted that many normal folk to get sucked in....many NO LONGER TRUST THE GOV, WALL STREET or any of the many agencies whose job it is to protect and regulate......so maybe we need MORE AGENCIES? yeah right.
Money talks BS walks.....we get SOLD OUT and all we get is public lip service....great merry xmas!
They must think a fool is born every minute and none of us can think way out of wet paper bag.....I wont be a bagholder I wont be a LEMMING
JOB LOSSES SHRINK to ONLY 502,000 FRIENDS this is stilL WORSE than after 911
AT some point after losing ALL THE JOBS CREATED the last 10 years.....well the losses SLOW DOWNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN. almost 8 MILLION JOBS LOST since 2007......
MANY of these jobs are NEVER COMING BACK....I can hear them now trumpeting these pitiful but improving numbers as MORE proof economy is reviving...
NEW YORK – AP STORY HERE
>>The number of homeowners on the brink of losing their homes dipped in October, the third straight monthly decline, as foreclosure prevention programs helped more borrowers.
But foreclosure filings are still up 19 percent from a year ago, . said Thursday, and rising job losses continue to threaten the stabilizing trend.
More than 332,000 households, or one in every 385 homes, received a foreclosure-related notice in October, such as a notice of default or trustee's sale. That's down 3 percent from September.Banks repossessed more than 77,000 homes last month, down from nearly 88,000 homes in September<<<
BUT HERE will be the headlines:
"Foreclosures dip 3 pct. in October from September"WHat is MORE IMPORTANT:
"foreclosure filings are still up 19 percent from a year ago,"
You see it's all in how the information is presented. WHAT will not be presented is how many SHOULD BE on the market as FORECLOSED being held off the market in a (off balance sheet?) SHADOW INVENTORY....almost like DIAMONDS held in Vaults in Russia and S.AFrica to keep Diamond prices HIGH...you knew about that right? LIKE XMAS, buying a DIAMOND RING has been SOLD TO YOU....
HERE IS SOME FACTS I DIG UP FOR YOU:
>>A vast “shadow inventory” of foreclosed homes that banks are holding off the market could wreak havoc with the already battered real estate sector, industry observers say.
Lenders nationwide are sitting on hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes that they have not resold or listed for sale, according to numerous data sources. And foreclosures, which banks unload at fire-sale prices, are a major factor driving home values down.“We believe there are in the neighborhood of 600,000 properties nationwide that banks have repossessed but not put on the market,” said Rick Sharga, vice president of RealtyTrac<<
And you have also heard how some institutions like Fed Home Loan ADM are RENTING BACK homes so they don't sit empty.
I promised I would NOT turn oN CNBC anymore and, well this AM I did anyway and threw the TV BRICK at the idiot hosts and guest they trot on with their MEANINGLESS DRIBBLE. MY GOODNESS could they for once just tell it like it is?
MORE LINK HERE
Shadow' Foreclosures Could Saturate Housing Market
Just like this data misrepresented, so is unemployment, so is protests our economy is ripping again. IT just ain't so!
CEO of COSTCO, those BIG BOX single digit margin BULK guys shouldn't worry but he said "fingers crossed consumers will spend this holiday"
Folks, is it not common sense if you TAKE OUT 8 MILLION used to be gainfully employed Americans OUT of the workforce, is it a CLUE XMAS shopping might be a TAD SUBDUED?
How in the world could the remaining shoppers carry the load for the missing 8 MILLION PLUS????
Do you understand now why the IN CROWD had to PUMP UP EQUITIES and INFLATE ANOTHER BUBBLE? There is no such thing as pay as you go, pay the piper for this crowd, foist it on the NEXT GENERATION.....
If we do NOT have situation of EXPANDING CREDIT, we have proof that Bank Loans are declining, Businesses are cutting back SPENDING, revenues are down, cutting heads gives you a profit these days......look upon the EVIDENCE the MSM doles out with a jaundiced eye....
I have showed you irrefutable evidence that the stock market gains have been brought about by the debasement of our currency....and not much else besides the one off STIMULUS that ONLY steals from any future demand. The attempt is to PUMP UP CREDIT DEMAND...it is failing.
We have a developing CRE (commercial real estate) crisis now, vacancies soaring
Even the HAIR CHANNEL will tell you >banks aren't lending< WHY DID GS change their designation as a bank? was it go get the teet of FED funds at 0%? And they make 80% of profits from "TRADING"??????? all those visits and phone calls to and from the Treasury and FED to these big banks..hmmmmmm BOY it's as if they knew what was coming....nahhhhhh
50% OF ALL BANK DEPOSITS NOW RESIDE IN JUST 3 BANKS?
What have they done, what have they done....
Duratek your truth seeker
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
It looks from the AM futures that the underside of channel break will be tested near 1100, IMHO a close back into channel would be another sign of market technical strength.
The weak 6 months of mkt wasn't so, will the coming best 6 months hold to form? WILL XMAS RETAIL SURPRISE TO UPSIDE?
Remember 2009 will be compared to WEAK 2008 yr/yr sales.
Remeber a LOT of good news is baked in, what is the current wall of worry?
Gold at $1,111 this AM, US $ in danger of falling out of control.
We have bought the rally, but it is detatched from mainstreet reality, that can happen with liquidity SPLURGE. GOLD to new record highs you would think would have Central bankers worried, but again they have been FIGHTING FOR INFLATION, is gold a signal of inflation?
Stock market obviously liked the employee head count reduction, shares will sometimes react well to bad numbers but when it sees action is taken, reduced head count means better chance for profits. In MOST cases we are not seeing a RISE IN REVENUES/SALES....remember many companies are MULTI NATIONAL and with weak dollar their sales will appear stronger than they actually are.
Economy cannot stand on own 2 feet, will it soon? BUT I ASK YOU isn't the key JOBS? to be able to expand credit and Bank loans, we need to expand workforce.
With all the JOB LOSSES you would think the worst of cutting is long over, but even when that is true, the hiring phase can take MUCH longer than most think.
WILL THE FED QE come to end in MArch as promised? WHEN will market reflect that? WILL appetite for our debt/bonds remain HIGH?
WILL 30 year BOND BULL (declining rates) continue?
ALL MAJOR BEAR MARKETS ended with single digit SPX PE's and near 6% DIVIDEND YIELDS. AT bottom we were near 13 and 2% yield, NOW yield is 1.96% !!!!!
AS LONG as liquidity FLOWS Into stocks, NO SIGNIFICANT DECLINE CAN OCCUR.
The issue will be when that slows or ends.....will the small investor come piling back into stocks or has some generational change in behavior occurred?
Buying stocks that are OVER VALUED usually ends in tears.
BANKS HAVE HOARDING AFFLICTION LINK HERE Briefing.com story shows excess Bank Reserves......friends, YES market has record surge...but WE barely have a "PULSE"
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
BOND BUBBLE BURSTS RATES SOAR, deficit chokes off real economy….another financial maybe derivative crisis, no quivers left….SPX 300 into 2012 or earlier.
MONEY GOTTA GO SOMEWHERE, with NO REAL EFFECT on real economy, this make believe world can exist for awhile, as the interior of humanity slips away. The players are all dumping and distributing IMHO, the PUBLIC having NOT Bought into this YET....at some point could jettison the BOND allotments and pour into equities that will give us our final TOP and maybe new highs.....then when it is understood how we got there, POOOOOOOOFFFFFFFFFFF, "castles made of sand slip into the sea...eventually"
WE had a chance last March to take our medicine, and purge the system. Instead we get this melt up.
TODAY I am monitoring a possible double top on SPX at 1095 and that underside of broken wedge on SPX is still in play until its not. 1095 ish is where we reversed today so far.
Lastly, this is a REPRIEVE, MAKE THE MOST OF IT, PAY DOWN DEBT, make sure you get into SAFE ASSETS, when this folly ends whenever I don't care...there will be HELL TO PAY. This time they REALLY DID IT!
Because of the FED leaving interest rates TOO LOW (1%) after tech bubble burst and 911, this fostered one of the most hsitoric momumental financial bubbles ever. Anyone got credit to buy a home creating a subprime bubble, and with ratings agency's complicate by giving most AAA ratings, the BANKS responsable packaged them up MBS's, and sold them around the world.
As long as real estate prices kept rising, the plan worked great. This fostered even more SPECULATION, which kept prices rising even more, obviously well beyond their inherant values. THEN the game ended.......problems arose at the finacial giants, BEAR STERNS and LEHMAN BROS AND COUNTRYWDIE etc etc.....the PONZI SCHEME had ended abruptly....leaving the world's financial system in crisis.
How did we fix it? BY PRINTING MASSIVE amounts of FIAT money, manipulating interest rates down, FED funds to 0% and all kinds of new programs TALF, TARP and of course QE.
SHortly after, complaints about having to RECOGNIZE these assets as proper MARKET VALUE, was making the banks even sicker. They would need to raise capital to be within Banking capitalization guidelines.
The more they recognized, the bigger the losses grew, the more they went in the hole. THE GAO stepped in and abolished MARK TO MKT VALUE, and replaced it with? MARK TO MODEL? any model?
FED FORCED banks to accept $BILLIONS, so we figured to loan it out, if we dint do this all would be lost. It fell silent that the architechts of this saviour plan were WALL STREET INSIDERS.
THE TOO BIGGER TO FAIL BANKS were born.
What did they do with all that FREE MONEY? LEND IT OUT TO REPAIR ECONOMY to grow it? NO NO NO, they used it to INVEST in STOCKS and things and bring profits to themselves....and record bonuses to be paid....while shmuck on the street lost his job and home and got no help, no bailout.
THE TRILLIONS went into speculation and it would seem the forming of a SUPER BUBBLE....is this all the FED CAN DO? ignore real world situations, lower int rates as response....form even more bubbles? WHAT GOOD ARE THEY THEN?
Now because of this we have born the mutha of all rallies from MARCH LOWS....and the 3.5% GDP # is proof Recession is over and the plan worked....and market values are justified....
3.5% if you believe it was all GOV stimulus, some inventory rebuilding nothing more.....and they can't take it away. Because instead of pouring money into some productive means, fixing what was wrong, they pissed it away and made the big banks even bigger with more power and all they do is TRADE THE MKT, they don't lend.
Commercial Real Estate is popping, another reason banks dont lend.
In every prior recovery cycle DEBT OUTSTANDING has risen, but not this time, bank loans continue to CONTRACT.
Consumer confidence usually SOARS, not this time.
Historical BEAR MKT BOTTOMS (NEW BULL) valuations were not present again in MArch.
PERSONAL INCOME IS DECLINING.
CASH IN MUTUAL FUNDS ONLY 4%.
We are STILL seeing 60 year old records broken...like PLUNGING Residential and Commercial real estate values.
Let me repeat a CONTRACTION IN BANK LOANS OUTSTANDING (how is this proof of recovery?)
If a LITTLE goosing before y2K fueled a viscious tech bubble....hardly noticeable on 30 year chart from fed, what is going to happen with more than DOUBLING ADJ M base in a matter of months??????? HOW DO WE BACK OUT OF THIS, WHY IS GOLD $1,100?
RATE of NET FIXED NON RESIDENTIAL INVESTMENT IS NEGATIVE yr/yr. HOW DOES THIS FUEL RECOVERY?
A NEGATIVE yr/yr change in personal income, maybe an historic first, HOW DOES THIS FUEL RECOVERY?
8 million have lost jobs since 2007. 10.2% joblessness, or the U6 17.5% level....how will this effect overall CONSUMER SPENDING?
A 30 year bond bull, pattern of rising prices, falling rates......and FEd at 0% where to now? OTHER GREAT BULLS were FED from falling rates from MUCH HIGHER LEVELS.
ACCESS to credit has EVAPORATED for SMALL BUSINESS, they hire 90% of all workers, how does THIS FUEL RECOVERY?
THE DOW IN TERMS OF GOLD as I showed has had NO RALLY.
BULLS< enjoy it while it lasts, but the AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE SICK OF SMOKE AND MIRRORS and promises of change and never getting any.
We went on an over consumption credit/debt historic excess ORGY, and now with this in REVERSE, with FED and GOV stimulus and FIAT OUT OF THIN AIR..we will avoid the corrective phase? INSTEAD THE ASSHOLES are pumping it right back up and I ASK YOU "what happens when it fails?"
Monday, November 09, 2009
The bulls are laughing, remember the bulls STILL HOLD from over 14,000 on the DOW.
This rally DEFIES all logic, prudence and shows the extent those in power will go to keep the lie going.
I'm sorry but this will end badly. I have WARNED the over eager top calling Bears to CHILL, and I am NOT short presently.....don't want to add insult to injury.
It will be interesting to see what the HURRY was to get to these trendline breaks.......and when asked what the reason for this wonderful rally, well no one really knows or cares.
No one cares where the money IS coming from, as the regular guy has drawn money down from equities and gone into bond funds....highly unusual.
Well we get GDP of 3.5% FABRICATED
We get 10.2% unemployment (ITS CLOSER TO 17%) many given up or underemployed....see you NO LONGER count when you drop off rolls.
Birth Death model adds 855,000 small business jobs during a time we actually lost 2.8 MILLION from March....amazing these stat guys.
And expanding bank loans are usually synomonous with economic expansion...but bank loans are CONTRACTING.
"Fannie Mae needs another $19 billion from the Treasury. It will get it. Next quarter, it will be back for more -- lots more. This is going to go on for years."
You see now FHLA is in charge of making all those great subprime loans that are now defaulting smart play !!!
And the Banks don't record their stuff at market value anymore....I mean WHY do that?
In the land of OZ, anything is possible.....even fabricating a rally that GOLD says DOESN'T EXIST
My goodness when this folly comes to end are we going to take it up the keester....