Saturday, October 30, 2010

QUANTITATIVE EASING (2) WILL FAIL AS DID QE1

"Quantitative Easing 2 will fail, for the economy has been desensitized to liquidity and cheap credit.

When the financial media refers to QE2 (quantitative Easing 2), I think of a grand ship (QE2 the luxury liner Queen Elizabeth II) foundering on the shoals. For Bernanke's QE2, currently the single reed supporting the equity market's continued ascent, is doomed for intrinsic, structural reasons."

" Bernanke's QE and ZIRP (zero-interest rate policy) has effectively destroyed the incomes once generated by savings and low-risk fixed investments, and as a result the flood of "hot money" has gushed into stocks, bonds and commodities, all of which are in bubble territory as a direct result of QE and ZIRP."

"QE2 will fail spectacularly, because it offers a "solution" to a "problem" which doesn't exist."

Fed has reached the point where it realizes QE1 has FAILED, the $TRILLION created just sits as excess reserves....there is little or NO incentive to lend to an already inherent leaking falling DEMAND for loans.....either the QE2 won't be big enough to please the STREET or it will frighten the bond market into collapse......if QE1 was such an abject failure to cure the economies ills and create jobs, why would the FED INSIST on MORE OF IT?

Loss of jobs in many respects came directly from GOV and FED policies that shifted jobs overseas.....the expansion of EASY and CHEAP CREDIT (exactly what is in place now!!!!!!) led to the over indulgence on borrowing, consuming and unsustainable rise in certain asset prices including stocks and real estate.

Add in heavy dose of FRAUD, and voila presto chango ....smeared over all that was good and the stink continues to obscure the bad....WHY are failed assets kept OFF the books of these supposed SOUND BANKS? many are in fact ZOMBIE BANKS.

And all this new HOT CHEAP MONEY the FED is fondin creating continues to head directly into COMMODITIES, and OVERSEAS markets...yeah thanks for nothing asshole Bernanke for helping foreign economies and worsening the transition of the US into a 3rd world economy.....recently added jobs at INTEL and CAT 2 HUGE US companies...in places like Viet Nam and China....yeah thanks for nothing.

One years ago GDP was 5%.....now just reported 2%......are we already slipping back into a slowdown? we need 3.5% GDP to create jobs.

Consumer and small business confidence slinks along at a level consistant with a BAD RECESSION and is FAR AWAY from readings seen at prior Recsssions let alone RECOVERIES.

You can listen to the pundits and politicians speak, the FED tell you we got your backstop, we'll do all we need to do.....when in reality the adjustment period from a gluttony of bad credit excess and a return to the mean is being forstalled and prolonged by BAD POLICY....all this right in front of the elections....keep your eyes open for REAL CHANGE when you plod into the polling booth.

D

Friday, October 29, 2010

STABLE CURRENCY MANDATE?


THE US $ will certainly react to FED decisions next week oN QE2.....a BREAKDOWN on this monthly chart as I show could have drastic consequences for Consumers....will the FED keep this PONZI SHELL GAME going? WILL it do more harm than good?
D

FREE LUNCH.....FOR THE SHARKS

WHat more assinine QE will do for us

"THE DECLINE WAS NOT REAL"

from briefing.com (free signup for silver)

"The initial claims level fell to a three-month low as claims declined from 455,000 for the week ending October 16 to 434,000 for the week ending October 23. The Briefing.com consensus expected claims to increase to 458,000.

Unfortunately, just like back in early July when claims last broke through the 450,000 barrier, the decline in the initial claims level was not "real" (i.e., a behavioral decision by firms to refrain from firings). Instead, the claims level was adversely affected by poor seasonal adjustment factors that were unable to correctly account for the Columbus Day holiday.

We expect the initial claims level to return to its 450,000 to 500,000 range next week"


Friends, what say ye to rallys not out of thin air, but rising on thin air data that is not real nor reflective of real economy......just like in 2000 I cannot say when it ends until the TA shows me, but as I have said 1,000 X " castles made of sand, slip into the sea, eventually"

IMHO stock market is at minimum 20% overvalued for starters.....I could be 100% wrong, and traders go with trend, but as investor I don't like fundamentals and I don't like data thattells me I would be investing in stock market that is a record from recession (recovery) but with the REAL DATA showing me this is WEAKEST RECOVERY FROM ANY RECESSION!!!

I don't like how those odds end up....at some point...we are near/at KEY FIB retracement levels....I have seen bubble stock action at many sectors incl rare earth materials (schlock canadian co's) with no revenues soaring to near $1B valuations with 100X normal volumes....this is IMHI a VERY dangerous market.

GDP ON TAP

D

NOT, KNOT

What supports Consumers:

  • end of Bush tax cuts
  • cuts to State budgets
  • tech orders down 3 of last 4 months
  • durable goods (EX AIRCRAFT) fall .8%
  • 99'ers loss of jobless benefits
  • no relief in unemployment, jobs
  • no apparent bottom in housing 3 years into crisis
  • consumer spending held up with 20% coming from handouts
  • real final retail sales up scant .9%, WEAKEST rebound of ANY Recovery from Recession
  • consumer cofidence (lack thereof)
  • business confidence
  • fraudclosure
  • .000000000000003% paid to savers (exageration, but I showed how $2M in MM gets you SQUAT!...distortions run amock)
  • oil above $80. Gas $3
  • Box cereal $4
  • Stricter lending standards
  • Continued contraction in loan demand
  • GDP continues to contract

help me rhonda

Duratek

Thursday, October 28, 2010

CONSUMER METRIC INSTITUTE

link here to full story and helpful charts

"Lost on the policy makers is the fact that what's good for banks is not necessarily good for their depositors. Simply stated, it has become impossible to live on the earnings generated by a lifetime of middle class savings. In June 2007 an accumulation of $2,000,000 in an IRA or 401K would translate into $100,000 in annual income when invested in 1 year T-Bills, an annual income higher than the per capita income in any of the richest nations on earth. That was certainly a reasonable target for a middle class household, and one that would allow a comfortable retirement without significant changes in lifestyle.

Today the same $2,000,000 (if it was somehow preserved throughout the "Great Recession") would earn $4,200 per annum if invested similarly -- or roughly the per capita income in the Republic of the Congo. No wonder that many "Baby Boomers" are increasing savings and postponing retirement to the chagrin of younger people desperately looking for jobs; the alternative is a third-world lifestyle."

HOLY COW!!! IT'S 1998-2000 ALL OVER AGAIN!


I thought what happened on the bulletin boards in 1998-2000, that WILD aimless speculation could not happen again in my lifetime.... I was wrong....rare earth MANIA.....the ZUTZ in volume can be sign its bubble has popped.....but this is just crazy...way to go FED!
This from yhoofinance.com this company has about $4M cash....NO REVENUE...NONE...volume went from near nada to 1M shares avg last 3 months to 9 MILLION last 10 days.....INSANE!
D

WASN'T THE BANKING SECTOR GOT US IN THIS FINE MESS?

Weakness here then SHOULD be troubling!

D

4 WEAK CLAIMS

Stock futures get a jolt from a drop in claims to 434,000 from previous week 455,000. Shown above is the more important less volatile 4 week mving average which is still above 450,000, and not indicative of a vibrant expanding work force and plentiful jobs market environment.
Boy, but after listening to CNB you know who, you would think we finally got PROOF of the latter.

SPX 1185-1187 been talked about as one key "bearish" level to watch. Instead of serving the country and the people's well being, in fairness, our system somehow morphed into CAREER politicians that overstay their welcome....isnt it time to send a clear message from the people....we're tired of the status quo...vote them all out

D

EXPLORING QUANTITATIVE EASING

Definition from wickie:

"The term quantitative easing (QE) describes a monetary policy used by some central banks to increase the supply of money by increasing the excess reserves of the banking system. This policy is usually invoked when the normal methods to control the money supply have failed, i.e the bank interest rate, discount rate and/or interbank interest rate are either at, or close to, zero."

Risks from wickie:

"Risks include the policy being more effective than intended, spurring hyperinflation, or the risk of not being effective enough, if banks opt simply to sit on the additional cash in order to increase their capital reserves in a climate of increasing defaults in their present loan portfolio"

Market Oracle:

"Deep pockets can only delay the inevitable. They cannot stop it. Quantitative Easing talk is raising expectations for liquidity infusions that people think will seep into stock markets. Hedge funds are buying stocks ahead of the actual Quantitative Easing from the Fed. QE2 is simply a fancy name for the Federal Reserve printing U.S. Dollars and buying fixed income securities from large Wall Street firms, buying junk bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage backed securities or Treasuries. It is essentially a fraud on U.S. Dollar holders, is a fraud on the taxpaying U.S. Consumer and Small Business, a fraud on the working person who has to get his money through hard labor."

In general I believe QE2 is already IN the market

"Everyone's Already Counting On Quantitative Easing 2, Says Analyst"

QE will fail miserably "the economy is desensitized to liquidity and cheap credit"
from above must read link (business insider)
" But as many commentators have been pointing out for over a year, the "problem" in the U.S. economy is not a lack of credit or high costs of credit: the problem is too much debt and the fact that there is no market demand which requires expanding business.

So the Fed is pouring "easy money" into an economy which has no need or desire for it, except to gamble with in the equity, bond and commodities markets.

Bernanke's QE and ZIRP (zero-interest rate policy) has effectively destroyed the incomes once generated by savings and low-risk fixed investments, and as a result the flood of "hot money" has gushed into stocks, bonds and commodities, all of which are in bubble territory as a direct result of QE and ZIRP.

If you can't make money with cash in savings, then the incentives are weighted in favor of taking on risk: seeking a return in stocks, commodities or other gambles."

So the unintended consequences include higher prices for food and energy among others, and I ALWAYS felt the State and local governments are so STARVED for revenue they will go after it from "those left standing"....do nOT expect property taxes to follow values downward.

I have shown you how housing has barely reacted to the $trillions thrown at it including LOWEST HOME MORTGAGE RATES IN HISTORY and GOV incentives....low interest rates is killing our older population and savers...as I pointed out, its screw the savers policy from the FED is trying to FORCE majority INTO RISKY investments....isn';t that great? savers DO spend interest income....guess they forgot about that?

IF NOT already FED is losing credability,continuing with failed policies....making them larger and more destructive.....so if QE 1 didn't work let's make QE 2 shock and awe and certainly that WILL work?

WHY wasn't money put DIRECTLY into the hands of working men and woman and small businesses? instead of big banks who just "SAT ON IT?"

QE1 and FED POMO operations have done NOTHING to increase the DEMAND for LOANS...contracting credit and loans does NOT lead to expanding economy...almost 100% of increase in corporate profits is result of FED and GOV stimulus.....can't stand on own 2 feet.

"Corporations sitting on HORDE OF CASH".......so what good will trying to keep FORCING rates LOWER DO?

So Hedge Funds, Money MGR's are FRONT RUNNING upcoming FED action....2 times early since March of 2009 it has worked to raise markets orig QE and then late AUG POMO..let off gas even a little and down she goes....this is the ultimate game of MUSICAL CHAIRS and the penultimate PONZI SCHEME.....early in you make moolah.....but you don';t want to caught late to the speculative TROUGH!!! when the music stops.

Jobs scarce....housing DOA, loan demand continues to contract....people are desperate....here come the political speaches telling how much progress we have made.

Duratek

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

QUOTE OF THE DAY




"Market Recap: Stocks End Mixed as Pre-Fed Anxiety Grips Wall Street" from thestreet.com email blast.

I wish it was that simple, that FED action will save the day. SEE above chart for "JUMP" in new home sales.
Our problems, of over indebtedness, living beyond our means and greedy people helping to cause the worst financial crisis since Great Depression, promising what can't be delivered in services, loss of manufacturing base, it's going to take A LONG time to get back to the mean.
Interest rates are already SO LOW, it is causing wild imbalances and unintended consequences....addt'l QE will add fuel to fire.....NO ONE expects FED to dissapoint....an they KNOW THAT.
NO amount of paper printing will solve the issues, nor sell the homes....I read home sales SLOWED because "30 yr mortgages rose from 4.5% to 4.75% "???? really?
Too many unknowns, too few jobs being created, earnings increases partly from stock repurchases....and "HORDE OF CASH" biz has.....ask why is it staying there...
D

GOLD ACTION. Point and Figure Chart


YIELDS TAKE A TURN UP


WHat are they saying? inflation? don't believe the FED QE2 hype?
D

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN FED POLICY GOES WRONG


This is what ultra LOW interest rates got us last time......can't wait to see what happens next..come on QE 2 !!! same idiots and boobs running the show that fell asleep or were duplicate last time.
CASH HORDE?? Reuters story on companies cash position....how will more QE help companies that already could invest if they felt like it?

SINS OF QUANTITATIVE EASING

LOAN DEMAND AND LOANS OUSTANDING have continued to drop each and every reporting period, the policy of the FED to continue to manipulate long term interest rates down in an environment of contracting demand is one of desperation and idiocy.

Banks don't want to lend at 4% or lower, and besides the DEMAND not being there, the stricter standards implemented in the face of the crisis cut out a big clump of the remaining demand.

Business and consumer confidence remain near all time lows and DO NOT resemble anything like a recovery. WITHOUT transportation todays DURABLE goods fell .8%

ANOTHER ROUND of QE will have unintended consequnces, already building a stock bubble....OIL, GOLD, WHEAT, STEEL are waiting to be inflated even more....driving up costs for finished goods. IF $Trillion PLUS did not drive up loan demand, why would another $T?

Affordability and the meager job growth do not support housing and an expanding economy.

LONGER TERM INTEREST RATES have been creeping up, the 30 yr back above 4%...higher long term yields compete with stocks.....the FED is trying to monetize that debt by printing $'s and buying Treasury debt.....somehow....that does not impress me.....will it impress the stock market?

If gains are due almost primarily from FED actions....and not secular trends not sustainable demand.....when the spiggot shuts down wont there be hell to pay?

D

AT KEY FIB LEVELS OF BEAR MARKET


Tuesday, October 26, 2010

FAMILY FUED


SOMETHING GONNA GIVE!
D

BDI WEDGING OUT


Downtrend shows lower lows and lower highs....NOT reflecting inflationary environment nor much of a recovery....this indicator covers the ships that carry the raw materials to make stuff.
Best stock market rally from a recession,best Sept in 70 years, worst economic recovery.....jobs, wages, consumer sentiment, housing, bank lending, small business confidence......and so on....but this mkt isnt going anywhere folks...it has a FED backstop and the printing press is smokin....
D

DOUBLE TROUBLE?


Breakout or double top? highest bar of volume in 2010 was a RED SELL BAR.....now volume wanes with higher prices, has "plagued" rally since its inception, if we can it that.
SOme smart people think the FED meeting and QE2 announcement could be anti (bull) climatic, priced IN the market, it's mostly all KNOWN, well publicized and could turn into a "sell the news" event. They go on to argue if less than another $1 Trillion would not be well recieved.....
There enough Consumers left out there NOT on GOV DOLE to keep corporate profits humming?
WOuld it be SICK JUSTICE if an actual uptick in economy were to occur, that caused interest rates to propel upward and instead of bad news leading to hopeful FED action.....hopeful news leads to fears the FED party is over...higher interest rates would cripple economy.
Forget for now the FRAUDGATE.....
D

MY WEEKLY CHART "STILL IN PLAY"


10 YEAR YIELDS BREAKING OUT?


Back filling after the drubbing? well I found it ODD to see rates CREEPING within days of FED'S NOV meeting on rates and QE2? purported to be maybe $1T MORE printing

FIRST EVER NEGATIVE YIELD ON THE TIPS AUCTION

Business Week post on this historic event

INCHING UP


If Consumers can't see past today.....nothing else matters.....some recovery fools! NEVER before has Consumer confidence been SO GLUM.....remember stocks are up HUGE from MArch of 2009.......with stocks up so much.....only one can be right in the end....something has to give either Sentiment begins to ROCKET....or stocks will come back IMHO
D

How a Gang of Predatory Lenders and Wall Street Bankers Fleeced America--and Spawned a Global Crisis - John Mauldin's Outside the Box - InvestorsInsight.com | Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

How a Gang of Predatory Lenders and Wall Street Bankers Fleeced America--and Spawned a Global Crisis - John Mauldin's Outside the Box - InvestorsInsight.com Financial Intelligence, Advice & Research / Investment Strategies & Planning for Individual Investors.

PRESENT and NOT ACCOUNTED FOR

There has been literally NO rebound in Consumer Confidence "present situation", you have 2 eyes and can see the level reached in the last "jobless recovery", so what does that make this? How can the stock market enjoy an historic rally, best Sept in 70 years....and WTF backs it up?
THIS IS A HUGE DIVERGENCE WITH STOCK PRICES.....something gotta give....they usually move in LOCK STEP!
In March of 2009, the Federal Reserve launched an historic quantitative easing, monetization, and liquidity scheme to pull the economy out of its tailspin. If it worked, you could not tell from the unemployment figures.

WHat we NEED to see, for hope of filtering into REAL WORLD ECONOMY is increase in bank lending and increase in small business and consumer confidence.....which could, should translate and in the past did into increased economic activity.

CEO Confidence Declines
08 Oct. 2010

"The Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence™, which was unchanged in the second quarter of 2010, declined in the third quarter. The Measure now reads 50, down from 62 last quarter (a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses).

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “CEO confidence has cooled considerably in the second half of 2010, as has the U.S. economy. "


Consumers

"Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: “September’s pull-back in confidence was due to less favorable business and labor market conditions, coupled with a more pessimistic short-term outlook. Overall, consumers’ confidence in the state of the economy remains quite grim. And, with so few expecting conditions to improve in the near term, the pace of economic growth is not likely to pick up in the coming months.”
OK , so we stimulate commodities and destroy $ value making things we NEED more expensive, we KILL the ability of retirees and conservative investors their RIGHT to a fair rate on their savings, 0% FED rate for 2 years and TRILLIONS in QE have not jogged bank lending, nor created jobs...HERE....record GOV assistance has run out for many......but THEY would have you focus on what? the rising tide of paper assets?
WHO BENEFITS from a rising stock market? RECORD amounts have been taken OUT of stocks and 401K plans just so people can survive....we have this record OUTFLOW....low volumes, yet an ever march higher....I smell smoke!
And as SOON as the crack addict junkie market saw QE ending in late SPring.....we have a weak summer stock market, so???? IN late AUGUST we got the FED's POMO actions and up we went...take away the crack and down she goes.....but now needing ever more crack just to run in place.
I ask you, if we aren't stimulating economy, creating jobs, raising both small biz and consumer confidence, resurrecting the housing market, dealing with bank bad debt
(now FRAUD)....restructuring as you may....sending even MORE jobs and prosperity overseas.......why would the mere thought of another ROUND of CRACK (QE2) make a hill of beans difference?
AVG Joe has most tied up in home, ABOVE avg Joe in STOCKS.....ULTRA RICH in stock dividends.....why throw gasoline onto the fire?...NOV elections approach....answer (can't paper over this level of problems and NOT ONE SINGLE RAT BROUGHT TO JUSTICE in the face of historic crimes and crisis.....ain't that great?)
Duratek




Monday, October 25, 2010

SEEING RED

Will the 200 week MA push back FED induced rally? Stocks did not succumb to selling in the Sept-Oct time frame....now many call the next 6 months "the best 6 months" for stocks with SANTA RALLY due next.

For now.....FED and BULLS in charge until sellers step it up.....banking mortgage fraud issues....seemingly not bringing level of worry up......that could turn out to be a very big mistake...for now themirage and complacency continues

D

BENDOVER-NOMICS

HERE WE GO, DOLLAR DEBASEMENT READ AT kd's market ticker forum.....add SPX futures to the list given affected by FED policy.

Current policies do not improve job growth, and continue to export $'s and jobs and growth overseas....what a messed up place this is.... "bend over a put a stick in your teeth"

D

richard ashcroft - brave new world

Sunday, October 24, 2010

99'ERS




Excellent job 60 minutes! This will touch your heart and shock you and bring some light as to just how much smoke is being thrown over our ongoing crisis,and how little the efforts to right the ship have done. But they still keep the same moronic games going, devalue the dollar, inflate the stock market....all will appear well....unless you scratch the surface for truth

D

Saturday, October 23, 2010

NETFLIX ANIMAL SPIRITS IN DRUNKEN STUPOR?


ANIMAL SPIRITS


DROP in volume, siedways to downward motion, let's watch here for a break
D

BANK OF AMERICA at "half mast"


IF THE SHOE FITS

THEN
NOW

Unlike mostly weak to sideways in general market while Bank stocks got creamed,
now the SPX 500 stocks are screaming higher!!!?? while BKX is in 6 months downtrend.....and we already have discussed how the 2 yr yield is at or a tenth ot 2 off historic PANIC lows (.84% was yield in march 2009 ! now .35% !!!!)
And instead of BIX rising in a warning spike....it continues to wane....usually both BONDS and STOCKS cannot be right......add in weakness and divergence of banking stocks......IMHO FOOLS RUSH IN
Duratek

STRANGE TIMES

“Monetary policy is about an environment that’s supposed to be stable. When you try to use it in a way that floods the market with liquidity, you can in fact get very bad outcomes.” Kansas City Federal Reserve President Thomas Hoenig, October 21, 2010." weekly Doug Noland read

Friday, October 22, 2010

2 YR YIELDS NEAR RECORD LOWS


HOW BOUT THAT REAL ESTATE MARKET? "SUDDEN AND DRAMATIC"


Prices plummet at world's tallest building A year after the Burj Khalifa's completion,
about 825 of the tower's 900 apartments are empty.

Bullish here? no compadre no....

"SUDDEN AND DRAMATIC DROP IN US HOME PRICES" (calculated risk blog)

D

THEM THAR HILLS


PHILLY FED SIGNALS SLUGGISH ECONOMY


A reading of 1.0 , a slight improvement from last NEG reading is heardly grounds for rally nor cheering, nor proof we have sustainable underpinnings in place to move forward and grow. The recent PHILLY FED is more akin to recessionary climate, not EXPANDING economy this far into "recovery". MOST DATA is unlike any avg of last 8 recoveries, including strongest Sept mkt in 70 years, in 8 months 26 90% volume days, weak job market, failing GDP, COntraction of Bank Lending......but companies mostly continue to BEAT estimates....BUT have we already seen peak activity?
D

Thursday, October 21, 2010

GAP WIDENS


STOCK CHART OF THE DAY


Stocks which get over valued, that run on mostly adrenaline....can fall awfully fast. Hon is a good company, but it had gotten ahead of itself, and if you aren't hiring people, how much NEW office furniture you gonna need?
D

STOCKS TAKING A BREATHER?


Some over head supply here at todays highs, 100 pt rally in Dow dissapeared, even though a positive close was achieved, very weak demand here. Stocks are NOT at a NEW high for the year....10 months into it.
I think more weakness lies ahead, not calling a top yet.
D

HOW GOOGLE MANAGES A 2.4% TAX RATE

AT zero hedge.com

AGAINST THE GRAIN BROKEN DOWN


MORE STAT REVISION GAMES

briefing.com

462,000 jobless claims last week revised up large 13,000 to 475,000....this week 452,000 these are not recovery like data

D

STUNNING 45 X BOOK VALUE


35% short of float is causing huge flucuations in price, up $16 in pre mkt (not shown here)....
Some popular compnies and that same stat:
BBY is 2.83 X book value
GE 1.48X
PNRA 4.58
INTC 2.30
GOOg 4.47
NFLX is category leader no question, so are these others.....wow! another bubble.....

D

EASING, IF IT WERE ONLY TRUE

Housing starts
*Peaks in 2006, hits bottom in 2009 and now in 2010 train has not left station
ALL the talk is about the FED and QE2.QE1 began in March 2009, that coincided with the bottom for stock prices, at some point it will be important to see QE 1 and if even more known as QE2 as abject failures in rejuvinating economic activity in THIS country or solve any deep rooted problems.


ALmost all of the gains can be traced back to a weakening US $, the main goal for FED action has been to reboot paper assets and repair housing market, one out of ain't bad?


How about job creation? What is being stimulated is capital and job creation...OVERSEAS! New plants in China....new worker hires in Viet Nam and India....


And for the $TRILLIONS eased and manufactured out of thin air, the housing market has been barely effected, and sits at or near historic lows and in some cases below levels last seen in March of 2009, yet the stock market parties on....what does that tell us?


Not a damn thing about economy. SMALL INVESTOR money continues to FLEE stocks in favor of bonds or other safe vehicles.....that is why we explored who is buying the market.
NON performing loans have SOARED during this crisis, no amount of QE is going to force banks to take on more risk, especially after they saw what just happened when they did that.
SO if the stock market is cheering the thought of another round of FED QE action.....maybe it would be better served looking back and seeing what it actually got for those $TRILLIONS? not much

D

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

APPEARENCES

NYSE volume fell by almost 10% today and up volume accounted for about 70% of the overall volume whereas the selloff was a HAIR less than 90% down volume.

On surface...."what me worry?" I smell a rat...but what can you trust?

D

2012 Ford Mustang Boss 302 Laguna Seca in Action

YANKEE ENGENEERING RETURNS!

THE BOSS IS BACK: 2012 FORD MUSTANG BOSS 302 BRINGS ROAD RACING LEGEND BACK TO THE STREETS

The Boss returns! Limited production 2012 Mustang Boss 302 set to become the quickest, best-handling straight-production Mustang ever offered by Ford, based on the world-class foundation provided by the 2011 Mustang GT
Boss upgraded in nearly every vehicle system; engine output, brakes, suspension, interior and exterior all examined to optimize weight, aerodynamics and track performance.
Full Mustang team effort results in a comprehensive re-engineering available only through the factory; new Boss is not a package that can be purchased out of a catalog or achieved through tuning or aftermarket parts .
Limited-production track-oriented Boss 302 Laguna Seca model expands on Boss racing aspirations, deleting rear seat and adding race-ready suspension and aerodynamic treatments
MONTEREY, Calif., Aug. 13, 2010 – Ford gave the green light only once before: In 1968, management approved a special Mustang – a car that sacrificed nothing in its quest to be the best all-around road-going performance machine ever created by Ford Motor Company. That car became the 1969 Mustang Boss 302, and it remains one of the world’s most sought-after examples of American performance.

Forty-two years later, Ford has given the green light again.

The team of Ford engineers, designers and stylists – all Mustang enthusiasts to the core – that created the groundbreaking 2011 Mustang GT has distilled a new model to its purest form, strengthening, lightening and refining each system to create a race car with a license plate. Its name: the 2012 Mustang Boss 302.

“The decision to build a modern Boss was not entered into lightly,” said Derrick Kuzak, group vice president, Global Product Development. “The entire team at Ford felt the time was right and with the right ingredients, the world-class 2011 Mustang could support a successful, race-bred, worthy successor to the original Boss 302. For us that meant a production Mustang that could top one of the world’s best – the 2010 BMW M3 – in lap times at Laguna Seca. We met our expectations.”

To celebrate the racing heritage of the new Mustang Boss 302, Ford will also offer a limited number of Boss 302 Laguna Seca models, named for the track where Parnelli Jones won the 1970 Trans-Am season opener in a Boss 302. Aimed at racers more interested in on-track performance than creature comforts, the Boss 302 Laguna Seca has increased body stiffness, a firmer chassis set-up and an aerodynamics package carried over almost in its entirety from the Ford Racing Boss 302R.

Philosophy and powertrain

“The new Boss 302 completely redefines Mustang capability,” said Mark Fields, Ford president of The Americas. “That the Mustang team was able to take the current Mustang GT – already a world-class performance car – and refine it further for peak track performance shows the commitment Ford has to this car and its legions of fans.”
Driving the 2012 Mustang Boss 302 was intended from the outset to be a visceral experience, packed with raw, unbridled performance across the spectrum: Acceleration, handling, braking, and top speed are all equally matched for perfect balance on a car operating within the framework of legally defined safety, noise and emissions regulations.

“The team at Ford wanted to offer their fellow Mustang enthusiasts something really special – a beautifully balanced factory-built race car that they could drive on the street,” explains Dave Pericak, Mustang chief engineer. “The Boss 302 isn’t something a Mustang GT owner can buy all the parts for out of a catalog or that a tuner can get by adding a chip. This is a front-to-back re-engineered Mustang with every system designed to make a good driver great and a great driver even better.”

Led by Mike Harrison, the V8 engine team approached Boss from the top down: With 412 horsepower from 5.0 liters, the 2011 GT engine was already an incredible performer. But to achieve the high-rpm horsepower that would make the engine competitive on the track, a new intake was essential. The resulting runners-in-the-box plenum/velocity stack combination the engine team developed was impressive enough that it got the green light after one short drive.

Helping the intake build power, revised camshafts using a more aggressive grind are actuated with the same twin independent variable camshaft timing (Ti-VCT) mechanism used on the Mustang GT. More aggressive control calibration yields 440 horsepower and 380 lb.-ft. of torque, while still offering a smooth idle and low-end torque for comfortable around-town driving.

A race-inspired clutch with upgraded friction materials transmits power, while a short-throw, close-ratio six-speed manual transmission handles gear change duties.

Power is delivered to a 3.73 ratio rear axle using carbon fiber plates in the limited-slip differential to improve torque handling and longevity. For those who want even more precise control over power delivery, a torque-sensing (Torsen) limited-slip differential is an available option coupled with Recaro front seats.


Sounds like the Boss

While the powertrain team defined output targets that would yield an ideal balance with the chassis, another team made sure the car made the kind of sounds owners and enthusiasts would expect from a Mustang Boss.

Up front, a Boss-specific intake system is tuned to feed the engine with minimum restrictions. A retuned induction sound tube provides concrete aural evidence of what’s occurring under the hood. And, in the Boss exhaust system engineers really had some fun.

“With an exhaust system, we have to consider three constraints: legal noise restrictions; backpressure, which can rob power; and ground clearance,” explains Shawn Carney, Mustang NVH engineer. “Since the 2011 Mustang GT exhaust is already so free-flowing – it came in way under our backpressure targets – we already had excellent performance; we were able to tune the exhaust system for a unique sound. Combined with the rush of the intake, the exhaust system really envelops the driver in V8 sound.

Every Boss features a unique quad exhaust system: Two outlets exit in the rear similar to a standard Mustang GT. The other two outlets exit to either side of the exhaust crossover, sending exhaust through a set of metal discs that act as tuning elements before the pipes terminate just ahead of the rear wheel opening. Visually subtle, the side pipes flow very little exhaust but a lot of exhaust sound, providing a sonic experience unlike any other Mustang – and giving home tuners an additional avenue for modification.

“We added the attenuation discs to meet legal regulations, but we knew buyers might operate these cars in situations where noise regulations weren’t an issue,” Carney said. “The disc is removable and includes a spacer plate sized to match aftermarket exhaust dump valves. If an owner wants to add a set of electric valves, they just undo two bolts on either side; the disc and spacer slide out and the valve will slide right in. And the side pipes are tuned so that drivers can run wide-open and the sound levels are comfortable – very aggressive but livable for an all-day track outing.”

Carney further explains the thinking behind the unusual step of an OEM easing aftermarket component installation. “We’re Ford engineers, but we’re also enthusiasts,” he says. “We understand owner mods are part of the Mustang experience, so we try to help where we can.”


Suspension and steering

In keeping with the Boss mandate to provide the best-handling Mustang ever, the already strong Mustang GT suspension system has been further refined. Higher-rate coil springs on all four corners, stiffer suspension bushings and a larger-diameter rear stabilizer bar all contribute to the road racing mission, and Boss models are lowered by 11 millimeters at the front and 1 millimeter at the rear versus the Mustang GT. The real key to handling, though, is in the adjustable shocks and struts, standard on all Boss Mustang models.

“We’ve given drivers five settings for their shocks,” says Brent Clark, supervisor of the Mustang vehicle dynamics team. “One is the softest, two is the factory setting and five is the firmest, and we’ve provided a wide range of adjustment. A customer can drive to the track on setting two, crank it up to five for improved response on the track, then dial down to one for a more relaxed ride home. What’s unique is that drivers will find – thanks to the way the suspension works as a complete system – the softest setting isn’t too loose and the firmest setting isn’t too controlled; each step just provides additional levels of control.”

Also unique is the method of shock adjustment. Ditching the weight and complexity of electronic wizardry, the Mustang team opted for traditional race-style hands-on adjustability – similar to the Gabriel shocks available on the original Boss 302.

“The shock adjustment is right at the top of the shock tower, built into the rod and easily accessible from under the hood or inside the trunk,” says Clark. “You just take a small flat-head screwdriver, turn the adjustment screw between one and five, and head back out onto the track.”

To complement the suspension, the speed-sensitive electronic steering system has been retuned to maximize feedback and road feel to the driver. The driver is also given the option of fine-tuning the steering feel to his liking by selecting one of three settings through the instrument cluster menu: Comfort, normal and sport modes help offer track-tuned steering when desired without sacrificing low-speed maneuverability in parking situations and everyday commuting.

Similarly, Boss receives unique traction control system (TCS) and electronic stability control (ESC) settings to help drivers achieve maximum performance whether on the street or at the track. Both systems can be completely disabled in controlled track situations where maximum driver skill is utilized, or fully engaged for maximum safety during normal driving or in less-than-ideal traction conditions. Intermediate sport mode allows drivers to push their cars hard at the track without completely disabling the safety systems, permitting more aggressive driving before the TCS and ESC systems intervene.


Brakes, wheels and tires

Working in concert with the suspension upgrades, Boss 302 receives unique, lightweight 19-inch black alloy racing wheels in staggered widths: 9 inches in front, 9.5 inches in the rear. The Pirelli PZero summer tires are sized specifically for each end of the vehicle, with the front wheels receiving 255/40ZR-19 tires while the rear stays planted thanks to 285/35ZR-19 rubber.

The combined suspension and tire package allows Boss to achieve a top speed of 155 mph and become the first non-SVT Mustang ever to achieve more than 1.0 g of lateral acceleration.

Boss braking is also up to the challenge, using Brembo four-piston front calipers acting on 14-inch vented rotors up front. In the back, standard Mustang GT brakes are upgraded with a Boss-specific high-performance pad compound. Combined with vented brake shields and unique Anti-Lock Brake System (ABS) tuning, Boss drivers get maximum control and rapid, repeatable fade-free stops in road and race situations alike.

The Mustang team spent considerable time ensuring the brake pedal feel met the expectations of performance drivers. Boss receives unique low-compressibility brake lines that expand up to 30 percent less than traditional flexible brake lines, allowing maximum fluid pressure to reach the calipers in the least amount of time, giving the driver a sensation of being connected directly to the brake pads.

“This car is wicked fast, so we put a lot of emphasis on giving it comparable stopping power,” says Clark. “We started with a race-proven brake system and tuned it specifically for the characteristics of the Boss 302 and its mission. They’re the best brakes ever installed on a Mustang, and they give consistent, repeatable braking performance on the street and the track.”

As a result 60-0 stopping distances for the Boss are improved by approximately three feet versus the Mustang GT with available brake package; combined with suspension and engine improvements, Boss is expected to show approximately a two-second lap time improvement over the GT on a typical road race course. But the numbers tell only part of the story.

“We achieved measurable improvements over GT, which was already one of the best-braking cars we’ve ever designed,” explains Clark, “but what’s harder to quantify is how good these brakes feel to a driver in a race situation. Like everything on this car, the brakes are more than the sum of their parts: They’re tuned from pad to pedal to work perfectly as a system, and the difference is dramatic.”


Exterior and interior design

Changes to the Mustang Boss exterior are subtle but unmistakable. True to its race-bred heritage, every component that could potentially aid aerodynamics or engine/brake performance was examined to make the vehicle more competitive, while chief designer Darrell Behmer refined the styling to evoke the 1969 Boss in a contemporary way.

“We approached this as curators of a legend,” explains Behmer. “We’ve taken design cues from the ’69 Boss street car and the menacing Bud Moore/Parnelli Jones race cars and carefully updated them to give the 2012 the proper bad-boy attitude that is unmistakably a Boss Mustang.”

To set Boss apart, each car will have either a black or white roof panel, coordinated to the color of the side C-stripe. Available exterior colors are Competition Orange, Performance White, Kona Blue Metallic, Yellow Blaze Tri-Coat Metallic and Race Red.

Up front, a unique fascia and grille are highlighted by the blocked-off fog lamp openings and aggressive lower splitter, a version of the design used – and proven – on the Boss 302R race car. The front splitter is designed to function at high speeds by efficiently managing the air under and around the car. It helps to reduce underbody drag and front end lift while more effectively forcing air through the Boss-specific cooling system. At the rear of the car, the spoiler was chosen to complement the front aero treatment and minimize overall drag.

“What we were after on Boss was reduced overall lift with improved balance,” says Pericak. “We needed to keep the car glued to the street or the track at high speeds without increasing drag or affecting top speed and fuel usage. The end result is an aero package that uses front, rear and underbody treatments not for show, but for effect – the balance and stability of this car all the way to its 155-mph top speed is just outstanding.”

Inside, a unique Boss steering wheel covered completely in Alcantara suede complements the standard seats, which are trimmed in cloth with a suede-like center insert to firmly hold occupants in place. Boss customers who want the ultimate seating experience can select a package that includes Recaro buckets, designed by Ford SVT in cooperation with Recaro for high performance Mustang models, and shared between the Boss and GT500.

A dark metallic instrument panel finish, gauge cluster and door panel trim also differentiate Boss from the standard Mustang, while a black pool-cue shifter ball and “Powered by Ford” door sill plates further remind customers they’re in a special car.

The Boss interior gets an aural kick thanks to what’s been removed. Eleven pounds of sound-deadening material have been eliminated to let occupants further enjoy the intake, engine and exhaust note.

“Boss is a hallowed word around here, and we couldn’t put that name on a new Mustang until we were sure everything was in place to make this car a worthy successor,” explains Pericak. “We were either going to do it right or not do it at all – no one on the team was going to let Boss become a sticker and wheel package.”

BIG BANKS STILL BEARISH


US $ retraces most of yesterdays gains


Does it surprise anyone that the stock market regained most of yesterdays losses?
ALL we got is a big PONZI scheme refueled by the FED....mosthave pulled money OUT....it is right out of an Orwellian film....the big super fast boxes and algorithms are running the show....and that seems OK to those in charge
They dont want a real economy, they just want a MATRIX
D

"WHO'S BUYING AND SELLING THIS RALLY?"

Good article at Minyanville.com

REAR VIEW MIRROR

MORTGAGE APPS REVISED -10.6%

Yesterdays dumpster dive came on HEAVY 5.6 B shares traded at NEAR 90% down volume....on HIGH ALERT.....for now we are in a corrective phase until we see more evidence. SO CALLED reason for anxiety was Chinese Central Bank raise of key interest rate.

D

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

SOME SELLING COMES INTO MARKET NEAR SPX 1185


profit taking 0n GOLD, Dollar jumps....from aone side sell trade to buy.
D

PETER SCHIFF

"Bernanke is CLUELESS"

QE2 Not The Cruise Ship

Fed's Lockheart "MUST BE BIG ENOUGH TO MAKE DIFFERENCE.....if its done" then " NOT SURE LOWER INTEREST RATES WILL HELP HOUSING"

I feel better already....8:30 DATA BUILDING PERMITS FALL 5.6%

DOLLAR catches bid, oil weak= weak stocks. I don't think we're between rock n hard place, I think the rock fell on us!

Printing can inflate assets to a point, as always the unintended consequences, the lack of CONTROL as to WHERE the liquidity flows is always an issue.

ILLUSION of stability is what we have.

The NORM
J&J's 3Q profit up slightly, despite lower sales (ino.com)

"Health care giant Johnson & Johnson says it eked out a 2 percent increase in profit for its third quarter, even though sales were down slightly. Johnson & Johnson now says sales in that division plunged nearly 11 percent in the last quarter."

D

Monday, October 18, 2010

SHADY BAILOUTS REVEALED

INterview with former GS insider NOMI PRINS

Instead of REFORM, we have even less regulated landscape......change needed never came....and this all leaves us very very exposed to the next crisis

D

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Washington State Citizens Betrayed by Four Legislators on Audit the Fed

AUDIT THE FED BILL FAILS, HERE IS HOW YOUR CONGRESSMAN VOTED broken down by STATE. VOTE THEM OUT IN NOV !!!!!

TALE OF 2 $'S. WOODEN NICKELS


"So – in spite of the strengthening “Core to Periphery” inflationary flows bias - dollar weakness has thus far ensured the recycling of excess dollars right back into our Treasury market (guaranteeing at least one powerful U.S. Bubble dynamic). And our politicians have become comfortable blasting the buyers of our debt as “currency manipulators” and the whole dollar-support mechanism as some “beggar thy neighbor” “currency war.” Well, I often ponder how the marketplace will function that seemingly inevitable day when the markets have to start going it on there own – without the comfort of an ever-towering “backstop.” Not easy to envision a winner anywhere in sight."

According to Lowry's there have been 30 (!!!!!!) 90% volume days on the NYSE since last April....I suspect this action is UNPRESCEDENTED in stock market history. 5 straight have been upside volume.

ST correction may be here as we approach previous highs of the market, not far away. Also mentioned was there have been NO cases where 2 10% or more declines have occured during previous bull markets, so we have already have had one this summer.....bulls figure ANY RETRACE will BE BRIEF AND SHALLOW.

We are no longer masters of our destiny....Foreign banking reserves of US $'s have increased in excess of $1Trillion last 12 months! It appears to me we can reflate paper assets, commodities and other economies...but not our own....who can deny inflation in general is not rearing its ugly head around the world.

It is obvious to me, FED has lowered rates to 0% and its been there for 2 YEARS!!!! yet housing barely has pulse, jobs not being created on avg compared to last 8 recoveries, nor has economic activity......so here we go buying BONDS to lower rates even more? A 4% 30 years mortgage isn't low enough?

Inmeantime the imbalances PILE UP, at the other extreme are savers, retired people, people who see risk as vile, they got NADA, so they have NO investment returns to spend into economy, SAVERS count too.

WHAT THE FED is trying to FORCE YOU INTO, is RISKY ASSET CLASSES.....OVERVALUED STOCKS......AUDIT THE FED FAILED AS VIDEO SHOWS WHY....we Americans are simply puppets in the game.

D

Saturday, October 16, 2010

Fall From Grace "TRUE STORY"

My company is busier than anytime in the last 3 years, go figure. What is different? Are we in a real recovery? WHO are these customers?

ALL are existing customers, one sells cosmetics to one of the shopping networks, another has mental health company (appropriate expansion!), another has accounting practice, one is at one of the military bases.....but none are NEW BUSINESSES....startups and NONE are Consumers...homeowners. How does any economic revival sustain let alone THRIVE without the last 2 kicking in, without a strong pickup in new business origination?

2 banks we contacted about getting possible loans HAVE called us back....of course I will change my tune big time should that money come thru, depending on the strings attached...small businesses, even those once proud but fallen onto negatvie cash flow course, most are worth saving...do we want to be left with just BIG BOX STORES and a plain vanilla landscape? GM can lose $100's of BILLIONS and still be around....lose a few hundred thousand and not have access to bank credit and you go poof along with 20-50 good paying jobs....small business which creates majority of jobs in this country is stressed to max.

LOTS of money in money markets, busnesses said to have lots of cash, banks said to have lots of cash to loan.....FED has printied (electronically at least) $trillions of new money....does it then sit there on a computer screen and do no good? COULD a push of this sidelined money find its way into economy.....and we would experience ZImbabwe inflation that gold is sniffing around at?

My new found busy nature may be a blessing for me, but it has also coincided with the discovery that one of my key sales people, who WAS a top producer, has succumbed to the stress of what life has become for so many....day to day existance.

I was wary of this persons appearence, and personality change, and work performance, but until last week did not know the depths from which it had fallen andhow it was effecting my company. For what I observed from this persons behavior, went far beyond the DEPRESSION they already admitted to.

I offered to PAY for the first session of psychiatric care......he did nothing. Week passed by and he looked worse, shabby appearence, sunken face....I gave him another chance to improve his work habbits, he began to lie about why he was either late or absent from work. Here when I need sales the MOST, my top producer was giving me PART TIME EFFORTS at best! I warned he MUST improve immediately, and if financial stress is part of his mood change, selling and the commisions that follow could improve that picture quickly.

Instead the following week it got worse, more time missed, more lies, more uncertainty. FINANLY I went on his computer and looked around his outlook messages....WHAT I FOUND WAS HORRIFYING.

Customers wondering why he had missed appointments, others waiting WEEKS for bids that never came, one designer seemed exasberated, the $90K potential bid one week late...."how's that bid coming?" well it wasn't. WHEN it finally did, 5 pages of pricing were "guessed" at, a total cluster f!

The next day I sat him down with one manager and asst who helped me collect the data and we tried to unravel what had happened. The answers were non sensical, and his appearence was even the more degraded and alarming.....I DID NOT RECOGNIZE THIS PERSON...this body snatcher. "You dont look like yourself....."yeah people have been saying that....."

"I just want to know what I am dealing with" He replied...."you want me to take a piss test?" YES, YES I do. "Good luck with that" "I don't have employment contract, I will take my customers with me!" Threats and denail.

Suspension followed and that brought us to this Fridays showdown. With job in balance (though he was not coming back to my company) you would think with one week, he would detox, clean up, TRY to come in looking like the old guy who kicked butt....we might have second thoughts. PLEADE for job? admit to poor performance and worse, neglect of job and customers...SEEK HELP....none of that happened.

In that week OFF, he came in looking like a scarecrow. Cloths limply hanging off of him....blood shot dark circles under eyes......a HUSK of a man...no longer resembling the person I knew all these years...the decision to part company with HUSK MAN was inevitable...because I didn't know this person, he was nothing like the star we thought we had all these years...SO SAD.

"who's gonna write all that business now?......Howd it get to this? referring to me...he is blowing this way out of proportion....you're cold man"

This is what happens to people when they give into the DARK SIDE, one of addiction to something, we will never know what....but pretty sure appearence and behavior spoke volumes as to what had happened to this once productive person....I have to move on and try to save the remaining 20 or so jobs many been with me for 20-30 years!

MY estimation is just in last 3 weeks near $500K of business was jeopordized and left ignored or dealt with improperly. because I acted when I did, so far all the dozen or so customers I uncovered have allowed to fix bids or send NEW person out to see what they need. None have been closed as of yet....I HAVE NO idea going back farther how much damage has been done.

My remaining sales staff, could not be busier with all the new found leads....if I get through this....this period in my life, business will NEVER be forgotten.

One customer asked me...."how have you remained in business?" all I could say was reduction of costs...lots of hard work.....(and putting off some creditors...paying as best I can).....would be AMAZING survival story for sure.

The HUMAN toll the stress of this economy, is countless and far reaching. ALL those NUMBERS you read, foreclosures....these are real people...some do best they can...have lost jobs...will lose health care and homes.....some lose themselves in a spiral of depression and or addiction...to whatever they can get hands on, making loss even greater.....as the manipulators and big cats at the banks hold the world as hostage...and FED RESERVE policies continue to degrade our currency, savings, and our life....and most look to them and our bobble head gov officilas for the answers ALL OF THEM HELPED to create.....kind of fitting the avg joe gets kicked out of home and is unemployed or under employed, we have LOST our top standing in the world, policies also hastening the loss of manufacturing jobs and more.....and the insiders get our money transferred via bailouts and more....the SILENCE IS DEAFENING

Duratek

Friday, October 15, 2010

BANK STOCKS BUCKING RALLY TREND


CONSUMER SENTIMENT DROPS


Sure doesn't look like the stocks markets are telling the truth.....nor maybe any gov official......Bernanke speach was mostly double talk, and uncertainty over what or if addt'l measures by FED would get desired result, that's what I heard.
Markets overbought and vascilating, will do a SAT wrap up mostl likely
D

SLIP SLIDING AWAY

ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE

"According to the St. Louis Federal Reserve publication Monetary Base in an Era of Financial Change, the adjusted monetary base is an index that measures the effects on a central bank’s balance sheet of its open market operations, discount window lending, unsterilized foreign exchange market intervention, and changes in statutory reserve requirements.

The Adjusted Monetary Base is the one monetary component completely under the control of the Federal Reserve. "

Thursday, October 14, 2010

FROM HORSES MOUTH

ST LOUIS FED

"Finally, it should be noted that QE2 could have adverse
effects. For example, Plosser has expressed concern that if
the FOMC undertakes QE2 and the actions are ineffective,
it could damage the “Fed’s credibility and possibly erode the
effectiveness of our future actions to ensure price stability.”

He suggests that QE2 might also raise concerns that “the
Fed is seeking to monetize the deficit [which] might make
it more difficult to return to normal policy” in the future
. ■"


"The effect of QE2 on interest rates
could be small and limited to an
announcement effect."


And this rally is based on what???

D

RUN BUT CANNOT HIDE

The entire rally from MArch 2009 is but an illusion, if played well..bravo.....I fear a similar demise as 2007-2009......printing to prosperity has never ended well.

D

HOW LOW CAN THEY GO?

"Here's the problem with quantitative easing: even many on the Fed's Open Market Committee (FOMC) doubt it will necessarily boost economic growth. What types of projects promoting economic activity will be initiated when extremely low interest rates are lowered further?"

"FED'S BIZARRE TACTICS" Axel Merk

Low interest rates and stimulus produced the last bull market, but it did not create lasting vitality.....it created a BUBBLE, now even more has been done with rates down to ZERO, that doesn't seem good enough......what will be the end result here?

D

INTRADAY US $


*(known to us as the TIDY BOWL CHART) PUTTING STEAK IN HEART OF SAVERS IS FED'S PLAN TO PROSPERITY.
Record # of homes 288,000 were seized in last 3 months.
D

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

CHURNING

Some indications some kind of top is here, or near, lots of churning volume here......PHONY DEMAND IMHO.....do not walk out on the ice here....1217 in sight one of my prime R levels.

UGLY side to this asset inflation manipulation, those who save, retirees.....get NOTHING on savings, nothing in interest....FED forgot savers SPEND interest returns.....but they want to are willing to do ANYTHING to FORCE you OUT into the daylight like a Vampire.....and stake you to RISKY ASSET CLASS....by making almost all else trash.....this seems like an all or nothing bet....and a desperate last gasp

D

TREND LINE BREAK


Unless quickly reversed this trend line may be mute. 1217 MA is next for R. The economy is not in a bull, but stocks are.....backed ny full faith of the FED and printing press.
D

NEVER WAS A RALLY


INFLATE OR DIE

Gold soaring to $1,370 as the dollar dives....so stocks rise...got pic?

D

AND AWAY WE GO

"Oil prices rose above $82 a barrel Wednesday amid forecasts of increased demand for crude and expectations the Federal Reserve will adopt new measures to aid the U.S. economic recovery. The International Energy Agency upped its forecast for global oil demand this year and next following new data showing stronger-than-expected economic growth, especially in rich developed economies."(cnn.com)

OH, news flash, guess what? JPM "beats the street" but folks do we really know how their profits are derived, what IS the value of their mortgage assets? what IS "off " balance sheet?

0% interest FED Rate policy, already $Trillions of QE, POMO goosing of markets, a RACE TO DEVALUE currency, the rise in economy and markets a mirage to the devaluing shrinking $.

Already ad naseum we have heard "how the FED is ready to dish out MORE in QE II....but hearing it again in the FED minutes yesterday somehow comes as "news"...to BUY.

OIL heading to above $83 on the GOOD news the FED will print more money out of thin air.

BOTTOM LINE: We are already near 0% on most time frames, already at historic lows on mortgages, lows on MM funds and CD'S(screwing seniors and savers).......this is a VERY dangerous game targeting asset values, printing money in HOPES OF INFLATING ASSETS.

AN already woozy and dysfunctional economy is going to get even more so and the GROSS imbalances that record manipulation and unintended consequences will bring, will GUARANTEE YET another BEAR MARKET after they have taken this as far as they can.

We have PROOF, in the avg stats from prior 8 recession recoveries to judge if policies have been effective.....and it's a resounding NO.....if you are LONG equities, just understand what is driving price....and be ready to jump like the fleas headed for the flea bath.......and the EXCESSIVE NATURE of the stock market manipulation may just open the door to a market CRASH..... IMHO

D

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

FORECLOSURE FRAUD

BACK ASSWARDS THINKING

"Fed Minutes: Easing May Be Needed "Before Long"- Reuters
Federal Reserve officials believed in September that further help for the struggling recovery might be needed soon and discussed how best that might be done, the central bank said on Tuesday "

Now if this is the reasoning the bull junkies will be rejoicing (really we know its mostly black boxes and the FED) ......someone has lost their mind

D

THE GRIM READER

ASESSMENT ON TARP "Hegel on wall street"

ON CHART I AM MONITORING

The trend line is important until it isn't...we are there now!

D

RISK REWARD

JPM reports WED AM, earnings season is here again. Large Banks are shifted to LOAN to the GOV, not private sector, the risk / reward ratio is so titled in that way, loaning to gov by buying treasuries (using excess Fed Reserves = free) is too easy a proposition.

Bank earnings are still not reflective of current market conditions and they are not made to show losses of devalued mortgage loans. banks make up a large part of S&P 500 earnings. If earnings are not FACTUALLY REFLECTIVE of what is, instead of make believe GOV sanctioned fuzzy math.....add into HFT volume where stocks change hands for no fundamental reason, you have a stock market levitating on THIN AIR, IMHO. THEY have changed the game, using tools never used before, playing field so slanted......evidence 27 or so 90% volume days up or down volume since last April....this is insanity.

VIX dropped below 20....falling VIX is NOT Bearish as many think, a rising VIX IS......when the VIX falls TOO LOW.....it does show complacency, setting up the reversal....but not until the trend reverses to up

D

ILLUSION OF PROSPERITY

RR says " 3rd stage of gold bull when the avg Joe starts buying" I'm going to throw out there the avg dude may NEVER Buy GOLD....and that 3rd phase if it comes isnt spurred by them.

In late 70's last gold bull.....baby boomers were old enough to remember, had parents who bought gold then saw it go to dust...Philapene gold mine investments or Bre-X scams .......then saw gold sit for 20 years....the process to buy it, gold coins etc not clear nor easy......maybe a LOST generation of gold demand.....as we now witness a lost generation for stocks......those who think these the unbuying.....burnt too many times untrusting.....will come in to push this heap of shit(stocks) higher wont ever come......

Coming into Pres election cycle...years 3-4 usually good ones for stocks....for economy? stronger economy = real inflation= higher gold? Gold ATM machines not signalling any warning? maybe when they are at your local food store like red box?

"Cost-of-living adjustments are automatically set by a measure adopted by Congress in the 1970s that orders raises based on the Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation. If inflation is negative, as in 2009 and 2010, payments remain unchanged. " deflation?

Some economic data does show improvement, but if 70,000 jobs created (last report) we need at least 125,000 just to keep even with new job seekers. AVG last 8 recoveries (2003 was prior weakest) shows like nothing in common with current so-called recovery....as at LEAST 8 MILLION AMERICANS gathering MOSS.....43 MILLION gathering food stamps and other Gov assistance, more than ANY TIME in HISTORY....this is our NEW BULL MKT? As also seen, the gov UNDER-REPORTS job losses during the year, adding mythical workers in the "birth-death" game and then waits until FEB of following year to adjust......how convienent!

In a gross turn of fate, QE II and POMO actions along with the competing currency devaluer's trying to increase exports incl CHina, UK and Japan.....will seem to benefit mostly paper assets....and of course THE GLITTERING METAL.

I could argue that things are better, less bad.....but until bank credit/loans begin expanding again.....consumer consume more, save less, housing inventory of unsold homes along with foreclosed and SHADOW INVENTORY gets worked off....and people get back to work.....what you see is what you get.

FED actions are trying to GUARANTEE LOW INTEREST RATES......but with so much to be financed......with GOLD already SCREAMING MADNESS.....how much more printing can be done to give the ILLUSION OF PROSPERITY?

D

GET YOUR FREEZE ON SS BENEFITS

"The government is expected to announce this week that more than 58 million Social Security recipients will go through a second straight year without an increase in monthly benefits. This year was the first without an increase since automatic adjustments for inflation started in 1975.

"I think it's disgusting," said Paul McNeil, 69, a retired state worker from Warwick, R.I., who said his food and utility costs have gone up, but his income has not. He lamented decisions by lawmakers that he said do not favor seniors.

"They've got this idea that they've got to save money and basically they want to take it out of the people that will give them the least resistance," he said.

Cost-of-living adjustments are automatically set by a measure adopted by Congress in the 1970s that orders raises based on the Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation. If inflation is negative, as in 2009 and 2010, payments remain unchanged. "


Inflation negative for 2 years? when did that happen last? GOLD SOARING to never before seen heights....NOT because of current inflation......

D

JOB LOSSES WORSE THAN REPORTED

.." in a little-noticed note at the bottom of September's jobs report, the Labor Department said it now appears there were 366,000 additional jobs lost during the 12 months that ended in March, a revision that is not yet included in the official numbers.

That revision isn't as bad as last year's -- when the Labor Department said that an additional 902,000 jobs were lost. But it is still the second largest downward"


Cant trust the data....

D

Monday, October 11, 2010

EVERYTHING IS BROKEN

Market used to be for 100 years good voting machine….now 70% volume program traders many of which use HFT, now majority are NOT voters…most volume does not even know what it is buying, or anything about the co, except it falls into the realm of its algorithm.

Which IMHO….between false demand from computers…..FED prop job thru QE’s and POMO’s…..majority of economic gains from stimulus…..that leaves the US ripe for a calamity and it will come out of the night….and the voting machine, now rigged with hanging chads everywhere…..will be very quiet.

Duratek

WEEKLY SPX CHART UPDATE


CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE