Friday, December 31, 2010

Ryan Adams - Desire

UNCLE SAM FAIRPLAY?

BIG BONUSES FOR FANNIE AND FREDDIE EXECS

CONSUMPTION VS INVESTMENT

"MALL ZOMBIES"
For 30 years the US SAVINGS RATE has declined, to almost ZERO last year, now it's near 5%. For 30 YEARS the YEAR/YEAR change in GDP has fallen. For 30 YEARS countries like CHINA have exploited cheap labor and SAVINGS to become the dominant MANUFACTURER AND EXPORTER AND LEADER OF GDP performance in the world!


For 30 years ever since GREENSPAN took over the FED we have had falling interest rates and become a CONSUMPTIVE SOCIETY and slowly but surely our manufacturing base has been decimated, with MANY HIGH PAYING JOBS going with it, replaced with WALMART GREETER JOBS @ $10 an hr.


LOW INTEREST RATES, USING THE HOUSE AS AN ATM MACHINE, failed gov't and FED policies all AIMED at CONSUMPTION to the point our economy is 70% CONSUMER DRIVEN!!!!! In many world forums our Presidents exhort others to be more like us!!!!


The US $ since 2001 since even MORE AGGRESSIVE interest rate cuts and policies were implemented, to avert "healing" effects of NORMAL Recessions, the $ has lost 40% of its PURCHASING POWER AND VALUE! WHat about STABLE CURRENCY MANDATE AT FEDERAL RESERVE?
The $ TRILLIONS spent on "repairing the US economy have been focussed on? CONSUMPTION!!!! BLEEPIN' IDIOTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As recent Consumer behavior has exhibited a desire to DELEVERAGE and SAVE, REPAIR.....the actions of the GOV'T and the FED go counter to that and are attempting to RAPE AND PILLAGE SAVERS, If you had $400,000 in a MONEY MARKET today, your income would be about $50 a year!!!!!!!!!! that isn't whacky??? WRONG? savers spend and invest a-holes!!!
As Consumers have begun to try and reset themselves, the very policies that should assist them are counter to that end! THE GOVT has stepped in and spent over $2 TRILLION in place of Consumers, and who funds the Gov't?
Companies that do well, like CAT because of these policies, hire and build plants OUTSIDE of the USA!!! ALL THAT MOUTHWASH speak of OBAMA on how he would get companies to build and hire here were stale hot air....$'s continue to FLEE this country and end up over there.
CHINA produces 97% of all RARE EARTH MINERALS, this is why crappy little companies havebeen bubbling up on the ticker, in a mania like investor (bag holder) spree.....while our GOVT wastes most of its time on goosing consumers which does not create lasting well paying jobs, the OTHER GUYS are INVESTING and BUYING THE WORLDS RESOURCES!!!!!!! HELLO WAKE UP!!!!!
As I suggested showing how WEAK the response and rebound have been in Consumer Sentiment polls and any Housing chart, FED LOW INTEREST RATES, 0% rate sorry, has only helped to DESTROY our manufacturing base and enslave us. IF current policies were working, HOsuing and COnsumer Sentiment data would look more like OTHER RECOVERIES!! instead they look like NO RECOVERY but what has? an HISTORIC 88% rise in stock prices!!! 98% OF Americans have the bulk of their wealth in their HOMES!!! UH OH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WE NEED A MANUFACTURING RENNAISANCE! If we remain slaves of the FED and the BIG BANKS, this can never happen.
Current policies such as TWERP, POMO and QE whatevers, aid the STOCK MARKET, in a SICKENING ATTEMPT TO DO WHAT?????????????????? Create the "wealth effect" and get Consumers to do what?????????????? CONSUME!!!!!!!!!! OMG!!!!
Consuming LESS initially might be hurtful to some businesses, but as new, better paying jobs are created spurred by INVESTMENT......we would become richer as a nation and more balanced@!!!! CURRENT POLOCIES ENSURE THIS CANNOT HAPPEN!!!!
US DEBT has reached 100% of US GDP!!!
SO as they talk and show you pictures of MALLS packed with shoppers, no doubt aided by GOVT assistance (20% are), understand how sad and sickening that vision is, demand REAL CHANGE! MORE BALANCE MORE FAIRNESS.....SAVERS SHOULDN'T be forced into RISKY ASSET CLASSES FOR RETURNS>>>WHERE IS THE BALANCE?
Thank goodness the FED continues to buy up Treasury Bonds.... with money from???
So, when you look around and see GAS OVER $3 at the pump, but PUMPS $5 for 2 pair or 3 suits for $99, thank current policies. When you see GOLD at record highs and a $ you can wipe your ass with, thank current policies. WHEN COPPER and most other commodities hit all time highs, but GOVT stats show little inflation, thank current policies of manipulation and decption.
When the DEBTS of the ugly whore mongerers, greedy Banksters get hoisted onto the public for "our own good", thank current policies. When your neighbor tells you how great a deal he just got from thebank, so he can now rent his house for a year instead of be thrown out his foreclosed home.....THANK CURRENT POLICIES! have agreat New Years, wish for and DEMAND REAL CHANGE....REAL LONG TERM PLANNING!
Duratek

Thursday, December 30, 2010

CHGS PART 2 "OUCH"

GARY SHILLING ON HOUSING

WHAT INSANITY LOOKS LIKE ON A 5 MIN CHART


RARE AIR

JUST because these hit the CNBC ticker, they fly. CHGS and XING 2 of the newer mining hit parade. One in pre mkt has gone from $2.50 to over $4 !! Pre mkt and add holiday trading is thin market, you get volatility.

You get the kind of hot money chasing MOMO like you had in the tech bubble days, people are so stupid and have very short memories.

ALL this FED money is targeted for asset prices, to SPUR CONSUMER SPENDING.....yet Consumer Sentiment And Housing lag near 2009 lows! FAILURE!!! yet they will keep going with the failed policies.....if stocks had any connection to feet on street they would reflect how hard it is to get a job, yet because of seasonality, todays claims fell to 388,000. If real Futures should be shooting thru roof, they are unfazed. SUB sector of Consumer Sentiment was a drop in jobs picture, go figure!

D

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

WINDOW DRESSING

LINING THEIR POCKETS BUYING into year end, come Jan 2011 expect some fireworks if nothing else correction of stupid overbought.

Like I said, I never thought I would see the senseless BIRD FLU type buying I'm seeing now...momo hype machines.....harken back the days of the dodo BB buying....pennies are pennies for good reason, LITTLE VALUE LEFT IN THIS MKT IMHO

D

Fleetwood Mac - Bare Trees & Why

"HOLLOWED OUT AMERICA"

OF 2 MINDS BLOG

RARE EARTH MANIA?



"BEIJING (AP) -- China said it is reducing the amount of rare earths it will export for the first half of the year by more than 10 percent -- likely to be an unpopular move worldwide since the minerals are vital to the manufacture of high-tech products.

China accounts for 97 percent of the global production of rare earths, which are essential to devices as varied as cell phones, computer drives and hybrid cars. Countries were alarmed when Beijing blocked shipments of the minerals to Japan earlier this year amid a dispute over islands claimed by both countries.

Concerns over China's grip on rare earths has led countries on a hunt for alternative sources. A number of companies in North America -- notably Molycorp Inc. in the U.S. and Thompson Creek Metals Co. in Canada -- are hurrying to open or reopen rare earth mines. Two Australian companies are also preparing to mine rare earths."

Several penny stocks have been the butt of WILD speculation, several do not have any revenue....rising from pennies in matter of months to double digit $'s.......how can one country control 97% of exports of anything? It is possible those rare stocks can run some more, but it will be VERY DIFFICULT to reach a fair valuation, the stocks performance is MOMO driven, so be very careful if you tread on rare air, you could get caught near a top with wild volatility, this doesn't seem to be a bet the house speculation, mad money only you wouldn't miss if your timing is poor.

D

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

FRANKENSTEIN ECONOMY

..."The explanation was prompted by an article in the New York Times in which former Goldman employees and debt experts claimed that the bank knew the CDOs it was designing and selling to clients were highly risky. The sources claimed that rather than warning clients of the dangers, Goldman spent millions of dollars "short-selling" the instruments, reaping vast rewards when they imploded.

Sylvain Raynes, an expert in structured finance at R & R Consulting, told the New York Times: "The simultaneous selling of securities to customers and shorting them is the most cynical use of credit information that I have ever seen."


We formed a mob and went after an innocent monster "FRANKENSTEIN" who did no wrong, with pitchforks and torches, yet the SCUM on WALL STREET who feasted on our carcass and maybe even placed SIDE BETS on the implosion of the very products they were peddling seems VULGAR to me....where is the JUSTICE, where are the TRIALS? where is our enron moment?

Where were the checks and balances back in the day 2003-2007? Remember which idiot on MSM who has been talking up any housing revival. LIAR LOANS, PIGGY BACK LOANS, NO DOCUMENTATION LOANS...just come in if you have a FACE you get a loan.

SO even if the speculators got money to speculate and build with no real demand, the GATE KEEPRS should not have cleared so many to buy the homes or use those funds for flipping.....flipping wasn't just for flapjacks anymore, flipping was a lifestyle, a business.....and it seemed like it could go on forever....building condos and homes without any regard to demand.

People were ALLOWED to buy homes that otherwise, without these LAX LOAN STANDARDS AND FED 1% ARTIFICIAL RATES they normally could have. Now like REPO MAN ....people will be tossed out on the street and these unaffordable homes ripped away from them....the people will not get justice.

SO BANKS KNOWINGLY PUT unqualified people into loans, knowingly these ALT A and subprime lonas got packaged up, kissed by rating agencies like they were gold, just as many were shorting the hell out of the industry making it on both sides.....AND THEN it went WHOOMPP!!!!

And that brings us today, if you thought we had malinvestments, and maladjustments in past phases, this one is sure to be the doozy! and instead of stupid 1% rates we now have had 2 years of 0% !!!! and the housing sector is still in the death throws.....

WITHOUT FED manipulation of the STOCK MARKET, an ILLEGAL ACTION, UNCONSTITUTIONAL intervention into economy, not in their MANDATE....everyone looks away as we get an 85% SURGE in paper stocks that helps the FEW, NOT THE MANY.

How do I know this? It's why I posted the Consumer Sentiment numbers today, what more would it take a tripling of the stocks? BUT WHO IS BUYING AND WITH WHAT MONEY? we already covered that. CS was so weak it is right back where it was at the WORST OF THE CRISIS!! SO are the housing data, so usually consumer sentiment doubles during the first 2 years of a recovery.....MOST AMERICANS have the BULK of their wealth in their homes....$3 TRILLION of that or more have been taken away.....11 MILLION owe more than home is worth....we are on course to lose another 15% going forward!!!

SENTIMENT affects spending decisions, not for toys....for items of real value.

THE FED experiment is a drastic failure. GOV'T action has been drastic failure....I have NO optimism Republicans will do any better.

4 BANKS now hold more than 50% of ALL the BANK ASSETS in the entire US BANKING SYSTEM: B of A, CITI, JP, and Wells Fargo......isn't that grand?

TOO BIG TO FAIL got too COLOSSAL TO FAIL.

BY allowing the Financials to go to the FED and get funds at 0%......where do you think that money went? YES...much of it into stocks and commodities.

BUBBLES END UP AS BUSTS....FED POLICY GUARANTEES THIS CYCLE....it started with that idiot many idolize Greenspan....now Ben's doing a fine job too.

If we have seen any REAL improvement in the economy, it is FAR TOO LITTLE for what has been spent.......the upper 2% won't complain, the BANKSTERS WON'T COMPLAIN.

Get ready for HUGE money to be passed around like they earned it...they are smartly deferring that until 2011....thinking maybe less will be paying attention?

Mortgages that banks hold were held in suspended animation in march of 2009 by the suspension of mark to market, home prices have slid quite a bit since 2009 and now they are headed down again.....WHAT IS THE VALUE OF THESE AT THE BANKS?

IMHO BANK profits are fictitious at best, make believe........anything has value by finding someone to pay you a specifiied amount at that time....otherwise its just a fraud...not based on reality......

If 7 of last 8 recoveries were led by Housing, that at LEAST tells you of its importance in our economy.....so I ask again what leads this "recovery"?

GOV and FED...guess what? we will soon realize it's GROUND HOG DAY AGAIN!

Duratek

HOUSING DATA POINTS TO DOUBLE DIP

"Prices fell in all 20 key cities in report....worst levels since 2006-2007 crisis began" monthly drops = 15% yr.

...."double dip on the verge or already here...."

Excuse me, what was the 85% mkt surge based on? Valuation of banks? Profits of banks? Profits of SPX?

If this data told another story, I would have much LESS a base to be looking for a top....but a dip to buy!

D

SOME RECOVERY

Consumer confidence FALLS unexpectedly? to 52.5, 56.5 was expected. Present situation has barely budged off bottom even after 85% stock rally......what have I been saying?
On Tuesday December 28, 2010, 9:46 am
By Corbett B. Daly

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - "U.S. single-family home prices fell for a fourth straight month in October pressured by a supply glut, home foreclosures and high unemployment, data from a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday."

CHINESE STOCKS HIT SKIDS


Now below 200 SMA, Chinese Central Banks just hiked interest rates
D

Monday, December 27, 2010

"GRIFTOPIA"

Matt TAIBBI ON NPR

BOOMERS UNPREPARED

Most have grossly inadequate savings for retirement


"2010 was tough for the concert business as high prices kept many fans at home. Promoters now say they plan to make shows more affordable in 2011. But they'll also try to sell more T-shirts and other merchandise to make up for lost revenue.

Heading into last summer, usually the busiest time of the year, prices were set too high despite the sluggish economy. Managers and promoters believed fans would keep paying for the one or two concerts they see on average each year.

Instead, many stayed home and dozens of shows were canceled. Lots of venues filled seats with fire-sale prices. "

D



DR COPPER AS PROXY? NEW ALL TIME HIGHS


Saturday, December 25, 2010

HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO ALL AND LOOKING FORWARD

I am going to continue to tell it like it is on the fundamental backdrop, but am also going to devote some time on uncovering opportunities that I see IMHO. WE can be bullish and cautious, we can be bearish and long.

We MAY have seen GENERATIONAL LOWS in March 2009, prices SO LOW most didn't want to touch them, VIX so high of near records in fear, stuff lows are made of. According to DOW THEORY however, if still relevant, not PE ratios NORE dividende yields did that bottom make....so that would lead to a retest and a NEW SECULAR BULL when PE ratios fall to single digits and DIV yields to near 6%....that is how 1980 got formed.

This market currently is almost 100% momentum driven, with as Dr John Hussman observed unfavorable valuations. It is a market that has been propped up and manipulated with FED currency funneled to the largest players that went directly and used specifically for raising asset prices, Bernanke has come out in PUBLIC and said as much, hadn't understood that was the FED MANDATE by law.

Currently we have reached a DEC that has been about 4X better than historic avg...frothy anyone?

Bullish polls have reached or exceeded 2007 toppish extremes, in VERY short order from bottom, as if that never heappened. BARON's rounstable and other analyst polls are unanamous bullish for 2011, you have 3rd year Pres cycle MOST are aware of, QE 2 and goodness knows 3 and 4 or QE 5....bottomsless pit.

But as FED funds lay at ZERO % for 2 plus years, it is evident the PATIENT cannot stand on own 2 feet, withdrawing artificial support would kill the bull IMHO.....but players feel that cannot happen.

30 years of a bond bull, could go further but pigs get slaughtered.....worried about danger there and in Munis.

Historic demand for debt issued......yields usually rise to tempt buyers, reward for risk.....rates are much higher than when QE 2 began.

Wall of worry is all but a distant memory.

I think the table is finally set for a significant retracement of the gains....that's my call to play out into early 2011, only strength and determination of decline and levels thereof will help us figure of that DIP gets bought.

happy holidays, thanks for reading my blog I hope it has and will continue to be helpful

D

Thursday, December 23, 2010

REAL BULL MARKET

This is a thing of beauty, since 2001 the REAL bull mkt has been precious metals. At inflection points, even when the BEAR roars there are worthwhile investments to be found, if you understand the landscape.

NO FEAR.....BUT

NO FEAR (2009)

I remember dudes posting on raging Bull in 1999 about the LOW VIX….beware..they lost their ass shorting too early. A LOW VIX may be warning but a low and falling trend of VIX is bullish.
FEAR? A rising vix (trend change from falling) trend however showing fear is to be observed and shows potential for FEAR to drop prices swiftly.

When this comes from LOW LOW levels of complacency, is when it can do the most harm….we don’t see that yet…..VIX hit single digits during 2003-2007 rally.
2009 to present is different, price of stocks have risen faster from lows than any time in past history.

WITHOUT fear you cannot get another bear mkt. For now the market is safe….we know what intense selling looks like….until then bulls have control.

Heading into 2011 it is almost UNANAMOUS those asked are expecting big bullish 2011 for stocks. I don't like being on the team with near 100% certainty. We back to levels of certainty last seen OCT 2007....should be interesting year ahead, and hopefully prosperous.

*All have wonderful xmas with family, that is key, show them you care. Quiet here until next week unless something hits me over weekend.

Duratek

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

CONTINUED WEAKNESS BDI


NOT a stock timing method, but can be leading indicator. Weakness here is hard to attribute to strong economic growth.
BUT...for now anyway, with market reaching NEW HIGHS for the rally, the VIX and selling pressure continue to WANE away. It doesn't care what you or I think......the trend is obvious at some point TOO Obvious.
Players are sure the FED backstop guarantees higher stock prices....and so maybe they know that too and cannot stop. OIL ($90.55) and commodities also have their eyes open
D

SEARCHING FOR THE TRUTH, IF ANYONE STILL CARES!

What I rail about , is the most important thing….searching for the truth….and exposing the lies. I’m a stock picker in a bull (Secular) market or was, I went to the sidelines to PRESERVE what I made….long story

Now….because we didn’t fix anything, didn’t create anything, nor lasting, in 2000 worse in 2007 (tops) we flaunted and worshiped speculation at any cost….meaning not paying piper for the stupid shit, let’s put it off.

HOUSING IS THE ECONOMY…..98% of Americans wealth are in their (WERE) homes…. 11 million or 23% are underwater, owe more than value. 5 MILLION are 25% or more underwater…..HOUSING at BEST may be bottoming, at worse has 10% or more to go.

HOUSING has led 7 of last 8 RECOVERIES, no small wonder why…..well it’s not this time is it? SO I ASK WHAT IS THEN?

I’ll tell you what is……FED engineering, money out of thin air….that’s why I don’t laugh about market going up and cheer it I loath it, it is helping to blow smoke screen over the players, the manipulators as they sit in their dark fing rooms counting their ill begotten bonus money!

PROFITS? Trading profits maybe, but without mark to market, the SPX record earnings are BOGUS…..irrefutable….people are buying liars earnings…not worth the toilet paper printed on.

CB’S control the worlds money……seems a bit dangerous, self serving.

Play the game, bet with the house, the house always wins…..that doesn’t mean I don’t wish a day where the free market dictates and levels playing field……give the people a $300 flat screen and shut the f up

YACHTS ARE SELLING AGAIN

2 years of 0% FED rates. NO change in language “for foreseeable future” 85% rally. Calls for sustainable recovery. Bullishness near or above 2007 levels. 1999-2000 type behavior visable again.

If we were experiencing such a great recovery, why isn’t the Fed rate at even .25%?

The majority of Americans have their wealth in their HOMES, NOT in stocks. Maybe yachts are selling again, but 1 in 7 get GOVT assistance.

5 MILLION homeowners 25% or more underwater…..the real bull mkt is in BS

The SICKNESS of the thing is the FED is paying banks NOT to lend….omg is this f’d up!

WHere is the added $900B for extending tax cuts (most WEALTHY Americans benefit and does LITTLE *yes I'm a Rep* to goose economy) going to come from?

Who is funding our $1.5 TRILLION a year deficits? What does it mean if FED is buying $900B ADDT'L treasury bonds? And will help Europe too? with what?

You know don't you? with MORE and MUCH MORE of the world's use to be valuable RESERVE CURRENCY.....I would LUV to print money to pay for my debts too....

D

SPLATT

MBA Mortgage applications fall 18.6 % !! BOOYAHHH

ALL the snobs looking for GDP revision to a limp 2.7% and was only 2.6%

RALLY on with the recovery that is being sold as themost prolific expansion in history, but what it is really is, FED induced liquidity that ignited the markets through the major players gaining access to 0% money and put it into the stock market with the FED'S blessings....doesn't make this any less of a bull market in the sense of trend....but it is almost totally funded by the priniting presses....and held up even with housing dragging the bottom...with acocunting fiction when mark to market was suspended, so was reality.

The market is RIPE for a nasty reversal, at least short term....in many different aspects. The public has finally bought in...near the top perhaps again...and again to be the ultimate bagholder again and again unless a miracle of recovery exists

D

OIL BREAKS ABOVE $90


Tuesday, December 21, 2010

ONE YEAR PLUS CHINESE MARKET DIVERGENCE


WHat we know:
STocks hitting new rally highs, Transports near all time highs. VIX shows no fear. Bullishness at or above 2007 extremes. FED making savings trash with ZIRP.
Wall Street analysts unanimous bullish.
Stocks are priced beyond perfection. If you buy low and sell high....should you buy now?
Savers crucified. RISK REWARDED....shits unbalanced again!
Engine of economy housing still stalled. FINANCIALS head of ponzi scheme market with fictitious earnings, until mark to market is restored, bank earnings and this SPX earnings are a fraud.
Job creation isn't close to where it should be based on NORMAL RECOVERY, certainly not one shown by 85% equity boost.
GOV'T handouts and FED policy keep the illusion of recovery,,,,,,,this is a castle made of sand...
D

Dr Kurt Richeb├Ącher OCT 2006

"Manifestly, the rapid creation of the housing bubble in 2001 did prevent a deeper recession. But this should raise the further question of how the housing bubble and its financial implications have affected the U.S. economy from a longer perspective. In other words, are they in better or worse shape today than in 2001 to weather the aftermath of the housing bubble? Our answer is categorical: Underlying cyclical and structural conditions have dramatically worsened.

In 2001, the Greenspan Fed could cushion the fallout from the bursting equity bubble with the creation of the housing bubble. This time, manifestly, there is no alternative bubble available to be inflated to cushion the fallout from the housing bubble. Rather, there is a high probability that the popping housing bubble will pull the stock market down with it. That is the first ominous difference between 2001 and today.

The second ominous difference is that the economy and the financial system have accumulated structural imbalances and debts as never before in history. Vastly excessive borrowing for consumption and speculation has turned the U.S. economy into a colossus of debts with a badly impaired capacity of income creation.

And finally, equity and real estate bubbles are very different animals, of which the latter is manifestly the far more dangerous. In its World Economic Outlook of April 2003, the International Monetary Fund published a historical study, titled When Bubbles Burst, and explained differences in the effects between bursting equity and housing bubbles. It stated, in brief, the following:

First, the price corrections during housing price busts averaged 30%, reflecting the lower volatility of housing prices and the lower liquidity in housing markets. Second, housing price crashes lasted about four years, about 1 1/2 years longer than equity price busts. Third, the association between booms and busts was stronger for housing than for equity prices... Fourth, all major bank crises in industrial countries during the postwar period coincided with housing price busts.

The severe cases of bursting housing bubbles badly affecting the banking systems in the late 1980s were in England, the Nordic countries and Switzerland, not to speak of Japan, where, however, commercial real estate played the key role."

TOTAL CREDIT MARKET DEBT

3 charts to ponder

BROKE BACK BDI


BEAR CROSS MUNIVILLE


Every Breath Bernanke Takes

Bill Still's Speech at Bromsgrove 2010

US PONZI SCHEME

Dr JOhn Hussman "Things I believe"

MORE PROOF OF RECOVERY?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- "The use of food stamps has increased dramatically in the U.S., as the federal government ramps up basic assistance to meet the demands of an increasingly desperate population.

The number of food stamp recipients increased 16% over last year. This means that 14% of the population is now living on food stamps. That's about 43 million people, or about one out of every seven Americans."

Monday, December 20, 2010

VIVA LA RALLY

Japan All Industry Activity Falls For Third Month ino.com

"Japanese all industry activity fell for the third straight month as expected in October, official figures showed on Tuesday. Industrial production fell 2% in October after a 1.6% decline in the prior month, while government services were down 0.2%. "

'The Euro Game Is Up! Just who the hell do you think you are?' - Nigel F...

LESSONS NOT LEARNED

"But this time, 21 months into the rally, investors still prefer the dangerous over the dull."

"Wost STocks performing the best"

Saturday, December 18, 2010

US seeks rare earth elements

Castles Made of Sand- jimi hendrix

TREND LINES AND BDI RELATIONSHIPS


ALL I do know, is BDI tracks cost of shipping BULK RAW MATERIALS on the big ships, and the trend is obviously down, weak, diverging from stocks and one possibility is inventory build is over or much weakened, IMHO
Duratek

Friday, December 17, 2010

SIDEWAYS TREND CONTINUES


With a VIX print today in the low 15's, this is showing extreme complacency, it might be what I just mentioned, 3rd yr cycle and Santa rally is a guarantee right? BUT price could not run past the 1245-6 level I show as resistance.
But we have extremes in bullishness, maybe not your neighbors, but the polls say it, the VIX says it, CPC says it, the ANALysts say it.
If we haven't already IMHO ,we may just reach THE TOP in the next 3 months, just my stupidass guess.
BDI weekly chart just broke the uptrend line from 2009 lows. Not a timing indicator but can be used for trend purposes.....it has been a little early or late but it has usually followed the economic trend pretty good....worrisome
Duratek

LONG TERM STOCK CYCLES SINCE 1900

SHOWS 4, 8 and 40 yr cycles


This is my observations from above link chart>--**One observation I see is that each time a cycle extreme high was hit (like in 1929) the bottom of uptrend channel (stocks always go up over time) was hit or breached. Until the late 90’s the mid channel was mostly not breached if so briefly. The top of channel was hit again in 2000. The reaction from the top in 1929 to1930’s lows was brief and violent. HISTORICAL FED and GOV’T bailouts and intervention have forstalled in 2002/2003 and again in 2009 the correction that was underway. WILL we hit the low end of this channel again?


**2011 is 3rd year Presidential Cycle, has been a strong bullish year of cycle, will it again? But it is coming with concencus estimates and experts near unamamous bullsih, along with polls and a VIX falling to 15, where is the wall of worry?

99 ER'S LEFT OUT IN COLD

WASHINGTON (AP) -- "The tax-cut bill President Barack Obama is expected to sign Friday renews unemployment benefits for millions of unemployed people. But it does nothing for hundreds of thousands who have been unemployed so long they've used up all benefits available to them.
In the 25 states with unemployment of at least 8.5 percent, people can receive up to 99 weeks in aid. In other states, the unemployed get less than 99 weeks -- in some cases just 60 weeks, according to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities.
The bill keeps 99 weeks as the maximum anyone can receive. It doesn't provide any more weeks of benefits to people who have reached the limit in their state. Those who have exhausted all benefits are sometimes known as "99ers," even though the duration of their benefits varies by state.
The legislation renews federal programs that extend benefits beyond the 26 weeks states always provide. The extended benefits expired Nov. 30.
The Labor Department says it doesn't know how many Americans have already used all jobless benefits. But the number reaches well into the hundreds of thousands."

MUNI BOND BUBBLE?

"After rising through the first 10 months of 2010, the average municipal bond fund has lost 3% in just the past month, according to TrimTabs. Some funds have lost 10% or more this fall, as the long bull market in Treasury debt has come up lame and worries about stretched state and local government budgets have started getting more attention."

Thursday, December 16, 2010

HOSING RECOVERY

Fannie and Freddie bailed out. FED buys $1 T of mortgage paper, GOV tried incentives for first time buyers. INterest rates lie near all time lows.....and above is what you got?

7 of last 8 Recoveried were led by Housing......not this time. Interest rates have moved higher depsite more FED intervention, a new leg down is certainly possible.

Now do you wonder what value Banks are keeping on their books or OFF?

D

Tommy Castro - Nasty Habits

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

DOUBLE TOP, SUPPORT SHOWN


"HOUSING, THE FORGOTTEN CRISIS"

from marketwatch.com

"The upper middle class and the rich, of course, haven't slowed down. Spending isn't as volatile for them as it is for the rest of us. Their holdings of stocks, mutual funds and other financial assets are worth more than their home equity, so they feel richer than they did a year ago.

Not so for those in the middle or bottom of the income scale, who have fewer financial resources to buffer themselves from economic shocks. For them, the recession never ended. And it might be getting worse."

TO WEAK TO CRAWL

Trading the market, being in position of sound job and financial, understanding the opportunities when presented from EXTREME sentiment is one thing. Seeing jobless rate at 9.8% 2 years into "official" recovery is another. I am happy some of you can eat filet minion and are not effected, but through my lens I see a different world.

My BEARISHNESS does NOT come from the 85% rally, that my own signals told me was likely, it comes from my personal OPINION that how we got here has not fixed the underlying issues. If I waste my time yelping about how much money I might be making on the rally and how great life is for me personally, I ignore the underlying ROT and deception.

I do not connect the market, with real life. When the FED lent TRILLIONS to the main players for stock speculation, bond speculation at 0%, with HFT'S the majority of shares traded where not ONE SINGLE share bought or sold is a VOTE as it used to be......our society has gone off the rails....where FED policy is to raise asset prices......yet this helps more the ELITE, less the avg shmo.

YES, run with the bulls and use saavy to exit when necessary, but that misses the entire argument I make....is that this is false, perpetrated and manipulated ad that ever lasts!!! THEY HAVE PROVEN THAT last 10 years. BUSINESES can better plan with normal predictable sustainable growth......all we are getting is a ride on the big dipper.....and if YOU can figure out where we are on the tracks.....more power to you.

Out in the real world it gets cold at night, food and energy are part of the costs, not stripped out.

Now sentiment is nowhere close to where it was in 2009 bottom, in a matter of short order we are MUCH closer to other end of spectrum, in some cases historical highs in bullishness.............where' s the damn V?

Investment continues to FLOW OUT of this country and INTO others such as 38% monthly increase to China, further lessening chances of jobs being created here.

If you're in that upper 98%th, it's time to laugh and have no cares, but I'll continue to worry about the other 98% I'm not calling for 400 DOW, Prechter is rediculous......but world can only run so far on manipulation supported by GOV and FED support.....and that's just what is happening, and that's just why after 2 years of free money to banks and insiders the GS's....they can't stop! or they would!

PLEASE TAKE NOTE your history, prior BULL MKTS GAVE BIRTH AS INTEREST RATES BEGAN TO BE RAISED BECAUSE OF STRENGTH IN ECONOMY.....85% stock market rally and FED JUST SAID they will leave rates at 0% for life because the economy is TOO weak to do otherwise....well that's just great!

Duratek

FED POLICY IS HELPING

BUSINESS INVESTMENT IN CHINA GREW 38%

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

FUMBLE

MORTGAGE RATES ON THE RISE THREATEN WEAK RECOVERY

BEST BUY DROPS 17%, the most in 8 years as they lower estimates, losing sales to Amazon, Wl-Mart, Target, Costco and Sears.....customers opting for cheaper TV models and pruces dropping....infation?

D

FED POLICY FOLLY

FED Policy is to keep interest low by BUYING TREASURIES......sentiment is one sided against Bonds and even with that small bullish crowd as soon as FED kept things the same, in the name of economic recovery, interest rates soared higher....and stocks gave up gains.
Folks, the economy is on LIFE SUPPORT. 20% of Americans receive some Gov't assistance. 2 years of ZERO INTEREST RATES which have all those Americans looking for SAFE returns holding their ankles.
BUT, the AIM was to MANIPULATE assets higher, to cause spillover into economy....this was the plan for recovery all along.
Transport index is just shy of all time highs. Value Line index is at NEW ALL TIME HIGH!....most of the stock losses from 2007 -2009 crisis are gone.
But we don't create jobs, housing has not recovered, savers get hosed, banks are bailed out.
Calling THIS, a recovery is an abomination.


Monday, December 13, 2010

Sunday, December 12, 2010

SUGAR HIGH BULL MARKET

Most Americans have increased their spending and bought Wahl hair clippers, it's a real do-it-yourselfer economy. Isn't it obvious to everyone that this is a sugar high? NOT ARGUING those long since 2009 or in between are happy with returns, I ARGUE how that was achieved and has myself believing we remain STUCK in a secular downtrend that continues to escalate. WHY?

Same elixir but more so will bring same results but more so.NOW we have built a GOV'T finance bubble, transferring the crap onto public domain...so it may appear many companies doing better, banks sound.....I accuse them of putting the PEA in their pocket and that fixes the shell game....every bubble pops with nasty results.

Same players at helm, same strategies or now untested computerized money inflation tricks.....let this be the FED'S last dirty game. Unmask the Joker, no one's laughing at the jokes cept insiders.....they'll ease their way out of this, trust them like the call for no worries and housing never fell yr/yr.....now I can sleep soundly at night.

Chances for some kind of correction are growing, rally becoming more selective, many divergencies forming and bullishness at, near or above entire cyclical bull! DOES NOT MEAN a higher high isn't possible, but this is a game where you be wary of the crowded one sided trade.

Duratek

Saturday, December 11, 2010

WHAT THE MONEY WHORES ARE REALLY UP TO

Check this out, the "TRUE MONEY SUPPLY" holy shit

D

GOVERNMENTS MAIN JOB IS TO PERPETUATE ITSELF AND GET BIGGER, TO GAIN POWER!

It is why we should resist any loss of Constitutional Rights. Gov always seems to want to get BIGGER! those in power grow it every time as if that helps perpetuate it, the POWER. WE CAN FIX EVERYTHING.....if Capitalist is what we were founded on, then it rewards those who win the American dream....not those who stay home and collect checks....or don't have the skill set or tools to make it big.....

Moving UP the ladder means someone has hit it big with something and is creating a growing rewarding business and YES especially for them...that's the idea. I don't look like Johnny Dep, or sing like a Beatle, so I run a company...as best I can. I'm not 6'10" and can dribble and shoot, so I'll have to make it some other way.....all things are created equal, then its up to you.

We are NOT a socialist society nor should we be

Duratek

2011 BULLISH CALLS

READ ALL ABOUT IT! 3rd year of Pres cycle DOES side with bullishness

WHY STOCK DIVIDEND YIELDS ARE IMPORTANT INDICATOR

from safehaven.com

US $ DEATH SPIRAL




Bearish objective is 62.00. Trying to stabilize at around 80.00, this is counter to greater bearish trend.

D

"THE FED AND MONEY"

Creditbubblereport.com

"Money has throughout history demonstrated its dangerous side. Abuse money and “moneyness” at your own peril – although this fundamental lesson is invariably unlearned given enough time (and the seductiveness of monetary booms). The fiascos are always a little different, inevitably created by clever new wrinkles in the many faces of “money” and Credit. We are in the midst of another sordid episode. John Law’s experimentation with paper “money” in France ended with the spectacular bursting of the Mississippi Bubble in 1720. Today’s backdrop is much more complex: The Fed and global central bankers are working diligently to control an experiment in electronic “money” and Credit gone terribly awry. If it were only the printing press, it would be easier to appreciate what was developing and how to administer some restraint. Instead, the Fed has banked everything on its capacity to inflate marketplace liquidity, sustain massive government debt issuance, and maintain market perceptions of moneyness."

ROSENBERG ON BLOOMBERG TV

NOT EVERYONE SEES BLUE SKIES

Friday, December 10, 2010

DEFICITS REACH ANOTHER RECORD!!

WASHINGTON (AP) -- "The federal budget deficit rose to $150.4 billion last month, the largest November gap on record. And the government's deficits are set to climb higher if Congress passes a tax-cut plan that's estimated to cost $855 billion over two years.

The Treasury Department says November's budget gap was 25 percent more than the deficit in November 2009.

For the first two months of the current budget year, which began Oct. 1, the deficit totals $290.8 billion. That's 2 percent less than for the same period a year ago. And economists had been estimating that the full-year deficit would decline after two years of record highs.

But analysts say the tax deal President Barack Obama reached with Republicans this week will give the 2011 budget year the largest deficit in history -- $1.5 trillion, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase. It would mark the third straight year of trillion-dollar-plus deficits."

WHEN WILL THE MADNESS STOP???? WHEN!!!!

D

BULLS CLIMB A WALL OF WORRY

*some random thoughts

You could see this year as a consolidation phase. I would only say as caveat, gains that have been witnessed are outliers, this is quite unusual….it was begat by 2% bulls at bottom…..if we’re not at another extreme, we are close….and IMHO it will put a capper in 2011 should it be a plus year…..mildly so.

Behavior in NFLX, YOKU, DANG…..this smells like follow the price cause its going up…bargains are gone.cept special plays perhaps.


3rd yr following explosive gains from near depression lows could buck trend. For me….it will only come down to TA I can run and I will do my best to keep anything I read out of my decisions, I may play just indexes to accomplish that….better organize myself, I have TOO MANY accounts open to handle.



I may do things I haven’t done in past, sell covered calls etc which exclude any worry about economy.



Wall of worry? Exact opposite now IMHO….got a deal on taxes, got QE2, GOT deal in Ireland, Greece…..Ben said got Qe3 ready and waiting, got 0% FED, Got addt’l GOV incentives for 2011….got mainstream media humming the bullish tone. Got ALL polls at bullish 3 year extremes not seen since 2007….is that a wall of worry?

ANIMAL HOUSE SPIRITS


Check out NFLX too, PE of 73, 52X book value 5 X sales (all of these ludicrous 1999 like behaviour)
D

2% MORE IN YOUR POCKET TAX DEAL

SO let's say you make $50,000. Your new found $1,000 (LINK NPR) is then spread over 52 weeks, so you get about $20 extra a week.

But in 2001 you also find your healtcare is going up by $10 a week. (some maybe much more).

Most people interviewed said they would "use money to pay off debt". The UPROAR and HYPE of this being stimulative to point of creating jobs and putting people back to work, adding 1% to GDP is IMHO LUDICROUS!

D

BDI WEEKLY "RUBBER MEETS ROAD"


Drop below weekly support line from 2009 bottom would NOT be positive sign. WE will need to use MULTIPLE signals to gather intelligence in this manipulated froth.
D

RITHOLTZ BLOG "WEAKEST RECOVERY FROM RECESSION"

2001 Recovery was "weakest on record" until 2009 came along?

But recent political moves will finally do the trick? the F they will. ALL we might do is borrow some demand from future AGAIN....continue to make believe that transferring the debts from crisis from BANKS to the FED TREASURY (u and me) has solved the problem....now the GOV keeps chirping how they are making money on their investments...sure they have!

FED is playing a DANGEROUS game with the US $ and HISTORICAL PRINTING AND STIMULUS....housing prices have yet to bottom, sales near worst levels ever, HOW could the paper associated with these be at anything near face value?

IF FED really wanted Banks to lend, WHY do they continue to pay Banks on excess reserves?

If anything ASIAN economies get perked, as our $'s continue to leave this country along with jobs that may never come back.

20% of Americans recieve some kind of assistance, highest on record....some recovery.....9.8% unemployment as Recession ended 1.5 yr ago.....we owe current 100% of yearly GDP.....2 years of continuing tax cuts will cost $1 TRILLION....WHERE IS THE GOV AUSTERITY?

BOND YIELDS KEEP CREEPIN UP, watch 5% on 30 yr....

IN 2001 the US $ index was 120.00 $1,000 in general of foreign goods cost $833. Today the index is 80.00 (after rally!) and same would cost $1,250......against some currencies it MUCH more dramatic....gold is at new record highs for a reason

D

US $ WILL LOSE ITS RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS?

Porter Stansberry's Dire Predictions, LONG video, but a must listen.

PIMCO RAISES 2011 GDP FORECAST

Because of the DEAL on taxes reached, there is UNPRESEDENTED STIMULUS in the system, they see the economy a lock for 3-3.5% GDP this is 1% up from previous forecast.

Is this enough to forecast jobs? bottom in housing market? There has been so much GOOD news lately, 2 new Chinese IPO'S were gobbled like the Thanksgiving turkey....bullishness at or near extremes including AAII BULL BEAR RATIO....but don't worry....your cash is still trash....the economy is so strong the FED will continue to print money and leave key bank rates at 0%.

D

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

MONTHLY BREAKOUT

I try to show all possibilities. IMHO it would take a drop below 10,500 to worry the bull trend. We now have consolidation candle above long term MA....

D

MAJOR BOND YIELD MOVE


Now above the important 200 day moving average, increasing borrowing costs and mortgage rates.
D

IMPROVING


But in relation to where it WAS, we aren't even back to worst levels reported last bear mkt, new data due out Fri.
Bond yields continue to rise, if that continues could put near term cap on stocks.
D

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

OIL BREAKS TO NEW HIGHS FOR 2010


Now talk of "QE 3" is getting market all jazzed up? This has gotten quite insane, bullishness at 2007 levels but some area of economy like jobs, and housing have barely recovered if at all! Given HOUSING has led 7 of the last 8 recoveries, I find the rally more than suspect....but BILLIONS pumped to the right people, sent to the right areas, will continue to INFLATE PRICES.
In the meantime a RECORD number of Americans need GOVT assistance a staggering 20% !!!!
Patient may be on life support, but there is NO sustainability without continued EXCESSIVE HISTORIC intervention, and THEY make it seem like it can go on indefinately, a backstop, a Bernanke PUT on markets....in the meantime yields have risen and commodities, some have hit new highs.
As $'s flow FROM this country TO others, it poses inflation issues and imbalances....this is no remedy, this is no way to run a railroad...this will end badly...just not today
Duratek

REAL PROGRESS? REALLY? NO FOOLS GOLD!


SELLOUT? FUTURES RISE ON HINT AT TAX CUT? DEAL

"Republicans prevailed on their biggest demand: continuing Bush administration tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, despite Obama's 2008 campaign promise to let them expire for households earning more than $250,000 a year. Obama, while acknowledging Democratic unrest, agreed to extend the tax breaks for two years, whereas Republicans wanted a permanent extension."

"If the tax cuts are extended, however, taxpayers won't really notice any change in their bottom line. So it's unlikely to create any new stimulus for the economy."

If tax cuts are extended for 2 years? cost range estimates from $200 Billion to as much as $500 Billion.

OIL rises past $90 !! and becomes a "tax" on the people.
"He also didn't rule out the possibility of more asset purchases if the economy remains weak in 2011. That may give rise to fears of a QE3-inspired super spike in commodity prices."

But we are getting the inflation Bernanke wanted and targeted....asset prices are rising, as I continue to hear talk about "WHEN" the economy improves.....yes what is going on now feels peverted to me.

D

Saturday, December 04, 2010

AT THE CORE ISSUE!!

REAL ESTATE MEDIAN PRICE
THIS is what Bernanke didn't see coming, this is what has been stubborn to improve and this is where most Americans feel it most, NOT stocks.
In general one could stocks stock prices rising is a good thing, but it must come from desirable real sustainable policies, not from manipulation, FED targeting and HFT.
D

"KICKING THE CAN"

http://prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10474

"The gamey U.S. stock market has placed a big wager on the “risk on” trade. With QE2 in the early phase, greed has thus far held fear at bay. It surely won’t take months of disappointing data to spark QE3 banter. And there’s nothing like a world of synchronized speculative asset markets to embolden those banking on global policymaker liquidity backstops – the Fed, the ECB, BOJ, PBOC… Perhaps U.S. equities will begin to decouple from global asset inflation when the fragile U.S. economy and Credit system come to be viewed as relatively more vulnerable to surging commodities prices and rising global yields."

By all accounts, we seem to be in world equity BULL MARKET. You know how company stocks can go HIGHER after they release dissapointing earnings reports but say they are laying off 20% of employees and doing cost cutting....STOCK market can be, supposed to be a FORWARD looking indicator......maybe it was, maybe it wasn't or is isn't.....not so sure anymore.

We will use technical analysis to do our best to report what IS happening, like in 2000 and 2007 I will do my best to serve up an BEAR ALARM in the appropriate time frame....you can use STOP LOSSES at some level you deem appropriate to try and lock in gains......it is still my opinion, not knowing when this bull cycle will depart but pretty sure we are STUCK in a LONGER DOWN CYCLE known as K WINTER....as we have NOT made needed changes NOR realizied true banking losses....and the proper restructuring and debt dealing not accomplished...instead as Doug suggests we have kicked the can down the road.

Can you spend money you don't have? Can you keep losses off your books to report profits? Can you foist your bad deals gone worse onto someone else?

We have come along and put quarters in the financial parking meters just as they have EXPIRED!

Low interest rates fueled the final leg of 2000 bull in fear of Y2K and that bubble popped after YEARS of loose monetray policy....growth at any cost.

In 2002-2003 we had what many called the RECESSION THAT WASN'T....CONSUMER SPENDING NEVER SLOWED OR CONTRACTED! Overall debt with housing BUBBLE EXPLODED.

$TRILLIONS were taken OUT and CONSUMED from HOME EQUITY the #1 source of the avg persons wealth and this went into economy....some homeowners REFINANCED MULTIPLE TIMES.

The GOV, AGENCIES, the FED who kept rates at 1% for far TOO LONG....did nothing! saw nothing wrong....are DIRECTLY responsable for our current financial crisis and NOBODY is taking the blame! ALL THEY have left is to manipulate the stock market and hope for its wealth effect.

20% of Americans now recieve some form of GOV ASSITANCE, a record! some recovery.

Housing prices still falling in most parts of country, sales lagging near worst on record! some recovery.

9.8% unemployed near wost is ever was but Recession officially ended Aug of LAST YEAR! some recovery.

Banks loans still contracting! some recovery.

Savings earn 1/10th of 1% ! some recovery.

Those without jobs longer than 6 months at a record! some recovery.

SOvereign governments around the world are insolvent. Some recovery.

Gold canary in GOLD MINE at record close. Some recovery.

Gas now over $3. it hurts consumers.

Gov deficits now equal to 10% of GDP. some recovery

FEDERAL RESERVE balance sheet goes from $800B of marketable Treasuries to almost $3 TRILLION mostly now of DUBIOUS VALUE....some recovery.

CPI yr/yr however plunging towards 0%....deflation.

VAST majority of progosticators calling for HIGHER SPX in 2011. BULLISH polls are close to 2007 EXTREMES. It would seem that THEY did good job of forcing most OUT of their protective shells and INTO RISKY assets in hope of higher prices......job well done.

D



Friday, December 03, 2010

1227 HIGH IN SIGHT


QUANTITATIVE EASING (MONETIZING DEBT) WAS SUPPOSED TO LOWER RATES


But it's only a month old, but so far the opposite has happened.

PONZI PERVERSITY

In a perversity of logic, now when doubt is cast over a "job market rebound" with typical cast of oddballs on MSM calling for 150,000 to 250,000 jobs created right before the report came out, and one saying "it is reaching takeoff velocity" or some crap like that.

Wages and hours flat and stagnant, and few jobs, where's all this consumer money for spending coming from? Jobs NOT rate jumped to 9.8%....now we are to believe that the rate goes higher becuase job market is improving so more are looking and counted? sure

But this "weakness" of only 39,000 jobs (HUGE MISS) is of course GOOD NEWS! so the FED's and ECB gamemanship can continue.....ride the bull.

The debts and bad plays by the banks foisted onto to the people. Banks borrow from FED $5 B at clip for $400,000 (1/10th of 1%) and this FREE money put into market…..pay .25% on RESERVES they have no incentive to lend…..and these policies have helped the people how?

In 2000 most that lied cheated or whored were wiped out, mamma.com’s and enron etc……we could have healed 100% instead FED lowers rates to 1% and creates another BUBBLE instead……no one cares, no one intervenes until the crisis……then those responsible were made whole and bailed out with the peoples money.

Housing market has LED 7 of last 8 Recoveries…..it is moribund , LISTLESS like a log in quicksand….NO PULSE. Bank loans outstanding continue to CONTRACT.

HIP HIP HOORAY the market is in bull trend……and it obscures the reality and ensures a worse outcome and this cycle of boom bust perpetuates itself…enjoy!


D

ERIC CANTONA "KILL THE (CRIMINAL) BANKS" (A MUST SEE)!

SUCH A STRONG RECOVERY BUT?

Trichet Says Euro Not In Crisis
10 minutes ago

"Euro is not in crisis and it's a credible currency, the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Friday. The ECB yesterday left its key interest rate unchanged at a record-low of 1% for the nineteenth straight month. The bank also decided to continue its refinancing operations in view of the debt woes in the peripheral economies. Moreover, the bank decided to continue buying government bonds and said nothing about an expansion in the programme."

ECB rates at 1% for 19 months, FED rates at 0% since late 2008 !!! (going on 2 years!!)IF SUCH A STRONG RECOVERY WHY THE FEEDING TUBE?

MARCH 2001 FLASHBACK

"But by holding its rate reduction today to half a percentage point rather than the three-quarters of a point many on Wall Street had been seeking, the central bank seemed to signal that it would not dispense rate reductions simply as first aid for investors wounded by tumbling stock prices."

GS Thursday came out and said "BUY THE FINANCIALS" should a bank be biased to say buy the banks? DO we care what GS says?

0% interest rates, savers get nothing, people NEED something....FED MANDATE....targeting stocks.....stocks in the rise, banks borrow at near 0% cost....where do you think that money is going if charts showing banks loans outstanding continue to contract?

Maybe hiring is picking up, maybe it isn't, because you cannot trust BLS data, ask the unemployed......and what KIND of jobs are available?

FED has come out and said we are targeting stock prices, for the wealth effect......we will focrce you out of SAFE HAVENS by paying you NOTHING for savings, we want to force you to CONSUME and BUY STOCKS.......think that's cool but also think MUSICAL CHAIRS and PONZI SCHEME.

Isn't there always someone selling and someone buying? or vice versa? STOCKS GO UP as long as the demand is greater than the supply....more buyers than sellers and willing to pay MORE and MORE for the SAME COMPANIES.

SO MUCH debt to be floated that the CENTRAL BANKS have to buy the debt? YET interest rates have been rising?

The CULPRIT of the CRISIS, if the patient is HOUSING, the patient is still VERY SICK......7 of last 8 recoveries were led by HOUSING....not this time...we get inventory rebuilding.....we get historic FED and ECB intervention...fueling IMHO a FALSE but POWERFUL asset explosion move

SO POWERFUL is the recovery you cannot take out IV from patient? 2 years running? DID the rise in stock prices from 1998-2000 result from actual powerful real economies? NO.....but that was where the greatest gains over a 20 year BULL MKT came......and then many false companies like ENRON and MOMMA.COM collapsed.....all the overbuilding of fiber optics etc....all the debt caused these companies without real prospects of profit to collapse and die.

The CLEANSING laid the landscape for the real players to emerge...and some new ones like NFLX GOOG etc with REAL GAME PLANS to thrive.......growth....jobs.

THIS TIME THE CULPRITS were the banks, but instead of their cleansing so the landscape would be fresh to grow again, for healthy banks who could lend, for investment.....NO INSTEAD we got no cleansing per se, the BIG BANKS GOT BIGGER FED by FREE FED MONEY, they chose who won who lost......any wonder a revolution of sorts is needed....REAL CHANGE IS NEEDED for us to get to ground zero again like in 1982 to start the next great REAL BULL MKT economy.

A FALSE MESIAH is what we have, a gov ruled by special interests, a populace that migrates to the shopping malls like zombies.....unaware or uncaring of what is going down.....Black friday pablum.

I could be 100% wrong, I have said play their game, take what is given......but I also know this is all FAKE and fueled by thin air.....which could cause the patient to pass out at anytime.

Duratek

Duratek

Thursday, December 02, 2010

PLAY THE GAME

The market trend is up, the market broke out of the rule of 4 trading area, and that rule states the move can be powerful after testing 3 prior times. I watch the SPX, April high is 1227.

If you try to break down reasons WHY anything happens it usually serves no good, especially if you are betting against the trend, not usally not a good idea.

But we do know ECB promises to buy up whatever is necessary to keep certain countries in euro zone afloat, FED already has pumped in Trillions, and this is why IMHO the market has rallied and continues to do so....next to FREE money flows to the large banks, and they are buying stuff, the market, tungsten, oil, gold...corn, wheat....

My friends this IS HISTORICAL in nature, the results to assets perhaps as well. DID we avoid another Depression, or is this 1930?

When themarket fell to 660 SPX from 1550 you buy that, maybe 10% of cash.....as trend reestablishes UP...you add more in increments....and you'd be sitting here today on a pile of dough.....if one always thinks the worst and keeps eyes closed, you can't play the game.

ONE HUGE CAVEAT....what did you do in 2000? in 2oo7? if you rose it up but down you had NO cash to deploy.....

If you have top notch FA, maybe you get shifted more into bonds, and miss the carnage, but are there for the glory.....is that what happened to you?

I think this rally may be stimulating the economy, just because I can;t personally see it doesnt make it not so.......but I do know how we got here, what is not being stimulated.....all the manipulating...and again BUBBLE BLOWING.....and feel pretty sure this will end and we will visit the lows.....but I didnt say any day , this may not be certain...its just what I think.

But when DEALS ABOUND, and we can define the trend....you gotta take what THEY give you....this is near impossible for most.....they become part of the herd.

This can change, push emotions aside, still dont gamble for BIG HIT.....I like the action, I dont like the values, bullishness nor backdrop....think about protecting gains if you are blessed to have them...

D

RALLY BASED ON FED AND ECB ACTIONS?

NO RECOVERY IN BANK LOANS!


LESS BANG FOR THE $ (Money Multiplier)


Median Home Price Change (WRONG WAY FRED)



LOS ANGELES (AP) -" The worst summer for home sales in decades also put a chill on foreclosure sales, even as the average discounts on the distressed properties got bigger compared with other types of homes.

Foreclosure sales plunged 25 percent in the July-September quarter versus the April-June period and tumbled 31 percent from the third quarter last year, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.

Sales of non-foreclosed properties fell 29 percent sequentially and nearly 31 percent from the third quarter last year, the firm said."
*Earlier Holiday Reatil hiring may have led to uptick in jobs report, maybe the economy is turning around, but Housing isn't leading us to sustainable economy, I ask what is?
Now talks of Gov austerity, cutting spending, raising taxes, shedding jobs.....loss of BILLIONS as 99er's drop off roll which will affect Consumer spending.
On again off again Euro crisis now a joke.....let's print some Euro's and plug the holes. 10 year note approaching 3% will ALL this great news to feed on....big 90% up day yesterday and break out from trading range but on SPX still below April highs. (1227)
I would not be playing a tack on to yesterdays rally but down to sideways. IS THE US ECONOMY ready to catch fire? WHat's still holding back investment and expansion from US FIRMS?
Bullishness back to 2007 levels.
Even in 2008 mobs rushed lines in Black Friday frenzy, now many paying with cash....how will rest of season fare?
Medicare and Social Securtiy make up 33% of GOV budget.
D

Wednesday, December 01, 2010

Crazy Black Friday Lines at 12am!!! PITCHING TENTS?????

MAYBE NOTHING, BUT ANOTHER DIVERGENCE


Trans NEW 2010 high, DOW under NOV high, SPX under APRIL high.....Dow Theory non confirmation but it may mean nothing.

LET'S GO BACK IN TIME, 2007 TOP




WILL YOU see it coming?

STILL WATCHING THE IS DIVERGENCE


NEW ALL TIME HIGHS POSSIBLE


Transports are also now only 10% below previous all time highs. HOW? a trend is a trend until it isn't...and I do point out what is ugly, but I can't yet argue technical picture....I will when its time.
We could be trapped in a trading zone near the highs of SPX 1230 ish, that is also possible. The efforts to liquify the markets are historical in nature.....I will however remind what has happened at the end of each of these man made bubbles, is this the mother of all of them.
D

Left4Dead Horde in Real Life (BRAZIL, NOT JUST IN THIS COUNTRY)

store riot over sale laptops

Black Friday devolution in effect "ZOMBIE CONSUMERISM"

THE MADNESS OF A LOST SOCIETY

REAL RAW DATA BEING IGNORED

MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATION AND REFINANCE DATA LINK

Go with the flow and all that, but this is where you need to see improvement, all else they are throwing out there is noise to confuse you to the weakness

RULE OF FOUR


IF price tests support or resistance levels 3 X and on the 4th time breakouts, that should be respected.
Duratek

SAY WHAT??? STOCKS SET TO RALLY OVER CHINESE GROWTH?


From yahoo finance.com

China Growth Lifts Stocks From Euro Zone Shadows- Reuters (more production and gov giving it away? washing machines to those who have no electricity or running water?....burst of production with other world economies weak????)

Signs of robust economic growth in China helped lift world stocks on
Wednesday while the euro halted its recent slide with investors looking for the next move by policymakers to tackle the euro zone's debt crisis.

2 million lose jobless benefits as holidays arrive
- AP

China manufacturing up as Japan, Australia slow- AP
One day we worry about EUROZONE, next day we don't? Bond yields in the troubles countries like Ireland and Portugal say different.
The entire "recovery" is a fraud and illusion...rates held at 0% destroy savers and transfer wealth to the banks and the wealthy....most Americans have their wealth stored in their homes, and that has been destroyed by reckless FED policies and lack of ANY gov oversights.
D