Monday, January 31, 2011
The truth will set you free, but first it will make you miserable. ~Attributed to James A. Garfield
We only look for truths, no matter they may lead us.
"Consumer price increases in the 17 countries that use the euro have accelerated further above the European Central Bank's target, just days ahead of its monthly policy meeting, official figures showed Monday."
Futures green on another MONDAY, what a surprise!
Sunday, January 30, 2011
"How might you compensate management for a year in which profits plunged, you spent $550 million of shareholder money to settle a fraud investigation and your stock ended up more or less exactly where it started (see chart, right)?
Pay? Sure. Performance? Not so much
You might be tempted to nix raises or withhold bonuses to send a responsible message about linking pay to performance. But if so, you wouldn't be Goldman Sachs (GS).
It just had the year described above – and responded by tripling everyone's base salary while boosting bonuses by 40%. Is this a great country or what?"
Saturday, January 29, 2011
From the 1968 release "Steppenwolf"
Words and music by John Kay
When rain drops fall and you feel low
Ah, do you ever think it's useless
Do you feel like letting go
Do you ever sit and do you wonder
Will the world ever change
And just how long will it take
To have it all rearranged
Tell me why these things are still the same
Tell me why no one can seem to learn from mistakes
Take my hand if you don't know where your goin'
I'll understand, I've lost the way myself
Oh, don't take that old road it leads to nowhere
We must return before the clock strikes twelve
It's so easy to do nothin'
When you're busy night and day
Take a step in one direction
And take a step the other way
So don't stop tryin' when you stumble
Don't give up should you fall
Keep on searchin' for the passway
That will lead you through the wall
Don't look back or you'll be left behind
Don't look back or you will never find peace of mind
© MCA Music (BMI) thanks to Steppenwolf and MCA
Until Fed is forced away from manipulation, or rates skyrocket....
Phase one avg length less than one year, we are 23 months in and counting! That's what $4 trillion will buy you.
Stupid to keep guessing for a top when trend is solid up.
MA's tell the story, that is the voting mech. Like it or agree not.
I still think this all occurs inside Secular Bear.....but too early to consider its return.
3rd yr presidential cycle avg bullish.....might be oddly until 2012...though all words about 2012 are bearish with gloom and doom....that is contrarian in nature.
China in bear mkt. Arabs restless. Euro zone tightening, Brazil tightening, China tightening, Others fear inflation......not here!!!
At the end of this bull flow...will come unimaginable hardship....until then the laws of supply and demand trump all.....will it be an end to bond bull and SHARP rise in yields that blow up edifice of debt and make it near impossible to fund unending deficits?
At the end of the day, continued misuse of printing will finish off the US $, for now Euro Zone and other world issues defray attention away and make US seem more appealing....very possibly attracting money flow.
IF US profits do not keep up with wild speculation, we know how that will end up.....
I do myself and others a diservice if I don't explore all sides of the story, if I don't consider all options and potential.
At its most dismal in 2009 was the VERY time to buy maybe in your lifetime....many bears regret this and continue to hold onto and maybe even continued to position SHORT against the OBVIOUS TREND!!! this is financial suicide!!!! SO was long at the 2007 top....FED has made most whole again.....2nd time in 10 years......
MY feeling is at SOME POINT, this financial engineering will BACKFIRE as the previous 2 X of historic LOW rates held FAR TOO LONG have.....odds say when bull is done, maybe even to new highs (yes I said it) we could again see a 50% drop in prices.....YES there is going to be a time ahead of us you will want to be in CASH AGAIN!!
I'm going to do my best to see that day as I have in the past....there is no guarantee....I already know the DANGER in buying just because of momentum.....most of 1980-2000 bull gains came from 1998-2000 in its FINAL BLOWOFF STAGE.....may happen again like that.
Monkey wrench for me is how fast the BULLISH MANTRA and sentiment has come back to the prior extremes.....that in of itself cannot pinpoint THE TOP......
Currently we could see long awaited correction and we will monitor its intensity....I do not have data for Friday as to whether it was another 90% day....it may have fallen short at 89%....though NAZ was above 90%......at least Friday did show, it isn't always in a straight line..
Friday, January 28, 2011
BUT this will probably be another 90% down volume day, 2nd in series last 7-10 days.....some just keep on buying at any price...more this weekend
But little on Wall Street has changed. One commissioner, Byron S. Georgiou, a Nevada lawyer, said the financial system was “not really very different” today from before the crisis.
“In fact, the concentration of financial assets in the largest commercial and investment banks is really significantly higher today than it was in the run-up to the crisis, as a result of the evisceration of some of the institutions, and the consolidation and merger of others into larger institutions,” he said. "
Thursday, January 27, 2011
The financial crisis inquiry commission's official report is due tomorrow but according to leaks in the New York Times it will conclude: "The greatest tragedy would be to accept the refrain that no one could have seen this coming and thus nothing could have been done. If we accept this notion, it will happen again."
*What really gets my cobbler, is there is NO mention on the part FED POLICY of 1% interest rates had on ability to gain access to cheap credit and fuel the wild speculation that NO ONE SAW COMING.....sick
..nothing will EVER change...
Definition: provided by
"The NASDAQ McClellan Summation Index ($NASI) and the NYSE McClellan Summartion Index ($NYSI) look at the gap between the number of advancers and decliners on the Nasdaq and NYSE to give a net positive or negative number that indicates how overbought or oversold the market on a given day.
Using the NASI and NYSE:
The NASI is very good at predicting the intermediate Nasdaq trend of about 1 - 3 months as is the NYSI for the NYSE. Buy and sell signals are triggered when the the NASI and NYSI change direction.
The NASI is very useful as a general market indicator and could be used to swing trade QQQ, NQ futures, or an agressive growth mutual fund.
The NYSI is very useful as a general market indicator for the NYSE.
Use the following as buy/sell triggers to determine a change in the NASI and NYSI trends:
1. 5 MA crossover or Parabolic SAR buy/sell signal:
2. MACD crossover:
3. Stochastics crossover of 20 for a buy signal or below 80 for a sell signal"
Gold Loses Safe-Haven Appeal- TheStreet
"Spot gold prices were suffering Thursday on lackluster physical buying as gold's appeal as a safe haven deteriorated."
Manufacturing profits suggest stronger economy- Reuters
Stocks mixed after strong earnings reports- AP
Dissenters fault report on crisis in finance- NYTimes
Sarkozy: No turning our backs on the euro- AP
Obama's spending plan is investors' cue- MarketWatch
AT&T CEO: We'll push Android phones- AP
Playing defense against a fall in Treasuries- Tech Ticker
Social Security fund slides into permanent deficit- AP
GM drops U.S. loan application after turnaround- Reuters
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Procter & Gamble Co (NYSE:PG - News) and smaller rival Colgate-Palmolive Co (NYSE:CL - News) posted lower quarterly net income, hurt by sluggish sales in developed markets like the United States.
Cat looked good, but so far we're getting amixed corporate bag of earnings...
.....bullishness at extremes = to prior THE TOPS......perfect storm is set up...
Listening to CNBC all good news is good, all bad news can be explained away. Here we are 2 years into recovery, 90% stock market gains, in some cases a DOUBLE in 2 years! (record) and yet we still get 450K prints on jobless claims with 4 WEEK moving avg vaulting 14,000 to 428K?!
$14 TRILLION in debt already, so add in $1.5 TRILLION for 2011, what happens if interest rates begin to rise even more? FED SAYS rates have risen since QE 2 (and QE 1 for that matter) YET they leave rates at 0% because "economy is weak, not growing jobs" which one is it?
RECORD leverage has a way of unwinding, what sets it off I am not sure, but the move down will be sudden and it will be violent and swift and catch most everyone by surprise.
At this point ALL players are bullish, all calling for big 2011, cash in the hands of money managers at all time lows.....the table is set IMHO.
Could be another sovereign crash of muni hiccup? or a sudden RISE in yields long term? I'm making my call....IMHO if ANY rally remaining, it is one to be sold into and CASH should be raised.
I could be early......but I don't think I'm wrong. It may FEEL better, some stats are better......some companies doing OK maybe even well.....but it all rides on a TIDE OF FED LIQUIDITY that seems endless....where did the cash come from for the FED to raise their stash from $800 B to over $2 TRILLION in just last 2 years?
DID we only take months to repiar damage done over the decade?
IF 2007, as it was NEW ALL TIME HIGH was TOP of bull market, not 2000.....16 months does not correct it, history tells me that....we're in PHASE II of the BEAR......I wish it would end there. Prepare yourself, raise cash levels, diversify our of the more speculative issues....and get ready for what not many expect is coming...all IMHO of ocurse.
LONG LIVE THE FED...creating money, ponzinomics, deceit, and piling MORE DEBT on top of historic levels is the answer....
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
One of the Fed's main reasons for launching the bond-buying program was to lower high unemployment, now at 9.4 percent.
The Fed noted a recent increase in the prices of commodities, such as oil and gasoline, but said it isn't likely to spark high inflation. The prospect that inflation will remain tame gives the Fed leeway to stick with its program, announced Nov. 3, to buy $600 billion worth of Treasury debt by the end of June.
The Fed also kept a pledge to hold a key interest rate at a record low near zero for an "extended period." The Fed has kept rates at ultra-low levels since December 2008 to try to encourage people and businesses to spend more."
The deficit forecast would equal to almost 10% of the economy.
And if lawmakers extend many of today's current policies otherwise set to expire soon, the national debt would likely rise by $12 trillion over the decade from 2012 to 2021. That is about $5 trillion more than would be the case otherwise and would bring total debt to $23 trillion, the CBO said."
The economy isn't growing fast enough to lower unemployment and still needs the benefit of the Federal Reserve's $600 billion Treasury bond-purchase program. The decision came from a new lineup of voting members that includes two officials who have criticized the bond purchases. They have said the purchases could eventually ignite inflation or speculative buying in assets like stocks."
Friends, IMHO this is about all the market has going for it....the FED can NEVER STOP...or else certainly 2 years and $4T is not enough....
Barack Obama (D) - 2008 Election - ProCon.org
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Election 2008 News. Search • RSS Feed ... He has made clean energy one of the top issues of his campaign and as a ... we recognize that this election and Barack Obama are ...
Time and time again since 2008, it would seem like investing in this sector would bring nice gains....I don't think it has taken off yet, again last night it was made a main focus.
I am talking out loud, and wondering if years from now I would be kicking myself for not getting a solid position in this sector....(not to say I wont)
"Lawmakers need to stop "kicking the can down the road" and attack the massive national deficit from both the spending and revenue sides, celebrity economist Nouriel Roubini told CNNMoney's Poppy Harlow in an exclusive interview Tuesday."
All of a sudden who is talking about DEFALTION anymore? Gold continues to correct...
Some claim "corner has been turned on US economy"
"A government official is preparing to tell lawmakers that the recent overhaul of financial rules has not delivered on its promise to end future bailouts."
MBA Mortgage Purchase Index free falls -12.9%
Look at my chart from TUES, "AM data , New Home Sales ... boy that ain't getting it done!!! WHAT is this rally if it doesn't bring housing along for the ride?
New-home sales in 2010 fall to lowest in 47 years- AP
Buyers purchased the fewest number of new homes last year on records going back 47 years. The Commerce Department says sales for all of 2010 totaled 321,000, a drop of 14.4 percent from the 375,000 homes sold in 2009.
Look for FED at 2:15.....nothing else matters until then and even after it will be one head fake after another.....but normally day after STATE OF UNION RAH RAH mkt gets bully.....not so much today.
JNJ profit falls 12%
BA profits declined 8%
DD 4th qtr earnings decline (but of course beat the street, what a joke)
7 new etf launches
Surely we don't want economy to SPUTTER, FED doesn't either and there should be NO change in 0% funds rate, BUT my faithful friends, as seen in chart of new home sales and FACT home prices keep declining, it is obvious it has failed in that respect, and jobs, but not in the stock market......manipulated things tend to implode at some point
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
SO to get to here they piled on ENORMOUS debt on top of what already existed, we got a pop, maybe it has legs....inflation can chop those legs..austerity is needed....just not NOW....that can, CAN only be kicked so far....debt can be hidden off books so far....
Here's the financial times story on UK GDP SHRINKAGE "sparking double dip fears"
You heard it here first....what else would you expect?
AH YAHOO revenues fall 12%...is it my imagination or are we starting to get some earnings misses?
MarketNewsVideo.com , 01.25.11, 12:47 PM EST
"The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index out today showed home prices declined 1. 6% in November compared to November 2009. "
Going into 2000, weekly high was near 80.00 and that also fortold of a high coming, and it was.
2009 high of 88.00 was not a high for stocks. we're currently at 86.00% But we have corrected the over bearish sentiment.....and are MUCH closer to peak here......just one tool of many.
Big deal State of Union speach tonight, no selloff.....FED tomorrow....yawn......comeupins overdue and on tap IMHO
rally like all is well and balanced until that lie can;t be told anymore with avg dude believing it...for many its all in again
Monday, January 24, 2011
It wasn't hard to get a job, most recessions didn't last very long, 6 months on avg or less....there wasn't so much debt back then.
Technology and hosuing drove the economy into the 2000 top, FED policy in fear of Y2K threw gasoline on the fire. What began as a growing managable expansion ended in WILD speculation and over building of capacity.....debt beagn to grow but was still under control.
We had ENRON...we had WORLCOM, and we HAD INTEL (INTC) which now 10 years later is maybe 25% of what it was then....
FED didn't like slow down, but that is what heals for the next push, BUT instead FED(Greenspan) lowered FED FUNDS to then unheard of 1% and kept it there! INstead of healing they begot another, this time more wild speculative bubble (#2)....real estate....housing mortgage debt bubble.
Rather than let it heal, and take the pain so we could rebuild from the ashes, the FED again embarked on an even more insane gambit and lowered funds to 0%....and it's still there at 0% 2 years later!!!!
If the economy could stand on its own 2 feet, would rates be 0%? Would the tax cuts inacted to battle last bear (10 years ago) be extended another 2 years? WOuld another round of QE be needed? WOuld 20% of Americans need gov't assistance? Would the housing market still be barely off its worst levels of 2009?
We keep hearing of jobs growing, housing recovering, exports growing and GM rebirthing..etc.....so when will FED END THIS INSANE GAME? Where savers get nothing? Where speculation is fostered? Where margin debt as exploded again to new highs....where leverage is not a dirty word......my g-d haven't we learned anything?
SO adding even MORE DEBT to the system is the way to heal a bursted debt bubble?
But amidst all the pain and hurt on main street, there is a once in a lifetime rally on wall street....and HUGE bonuses are the rage again. And bullishness has come back to peak levels and beyond....and it only took barely 16 months to accomplish that.
Maybe they pulled a rabbit out of the hat, but not in any way I can understand. The US is now saddled with $14 TRILLION of debt and no end in sight.....how can that be good? and we are not adding in Medicare and Social Security some say could add $50 TRILLION more.
MOST States and cities are BILLIONS away from balancing their budgets, Municipal bonds have sold off sharply.....cuts have been announced, many police and fire fighters will be laid off.
SO who knows folks, paper assets may rise to the heavens.......on a wing, a prayer and a Ponzi scheme.
I have NO doubt, the actions of these foolish men, desperate to fool the people and maintain their POWER, will end badly.....what you see now is what seperates PHASE ONE from PHASE 2 of a secular bear market....thats my take....PHASE 3 is out there....waiting
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Dauman's overall pay package climbed to $84.5 million from $34 million, according to a review of securities filings made on Friday.
His base salary rose 5 percent to about $2.6 million from $2.5 million. He received a performance-based bonus of $11.3 million, down 10 percent from $12.5 million the year before."
* His base salary already in excess of 50 X avg worker if based on $50K salary. What bagholders do is get coerced by FED policy of 0% returns on CASH or safe investments, and forcing you for returns into riskier asset classes, such as stocks, such as VIACOM!
So when you BUY these shares and hope to make a little green
(VIACOM SHARES YIELD scant 1.20%) sports a MAMOTH debt to equity ratio of 73.95...what a deal. Cash of $677 M, debt of $6.7 B. BOOK value of 15, stock price $48.......remember yes when you buy, this allows liquidity for the INSIDERS to cash out those HUGE outsized and GROSS stock options
WHAT CEO OF WHAT COMPANY IS WORTH $84 MILLION a year in compensation?
Saturday, January 22, 2011
No market has ever topped with ADV/DECL also reaching new highs? according to Lowrys in past 78 years that is true.....
The stock market in SIMPLE terms is NOTHING more then flow, and fear to greed and back again....but basely it is supply and demand. Again in past 78 years NO TOP has formed under current supply and demand data.
The wrinkle for me, and sure always a first time, is the intervention....the FED, the games, that said I think all THAT WILL come into play down the road.
My GUESS if its OK and the weekend, is we will FIND THE TOP right where it normally occurs...IN march-April or OCT.....and the normal signs of deterioration will then be there....NO DOUBT this is NOT another GREAT BULL......valuations no longer attractive, so when MOMO is proven to have topped, then its only a matter of time.......the greater degree trend play will be at hand .
That greater trend IMHO, is resumption of the Secular Bear Market, why? because at no bottom in the last 10 years did we reach the avg valuations or dividend yield found at any other secular bear bottom......It's that simple.
If this rally follows a 100 years of market data, where those betting against the grain are confounded and seperated from their money because the market data does not support their fundamental opinions and emotions....the market doesn't care what we think.......and the backdrop doesn't matter either.....unemployed or housing data blah blah.....
We are corecting from perhaps a near generational selling spree and oversold condition. HISTORIC measures have been taken to stimulate stock market and FORCE investors into risk......choices? 0% on savings...a travesty....a HUGE disfunction.
These gimmicks work for awhile, but in the process, like 2003-2007 they build up worse imbalances and build even greater bubbles.
We've come a long way, but I see warning signs, I see people spending $40 plus to fill tanks, things we need fuel and food are at or near inflated highs and several countries are moving to control inflation, could slow growth.
ENGINE to world economies is not USA anymore, it is CHINA, their stock market TOPPED in AUG of 2009 !! food for thought
Friday, January 21, 2011
Obama goal: 'Putting the economy into overdrive' he said today in a speach. What was he waiting on the last 2 years? but NOW is the time to put economy in overdrive, not earlier....how about getting the bitch in 1st gear? What about ALL THAT RHETORIC about keeping jobs here in the US? do they ever remember their campaign promises?
Above charts show the diverging markets, the DOW is easiest to manipulate as it consists of only 30 stocks...thats it.
RUT are small caps, NDX is technology and along with Transports I showed earlier, recently they have reversed course, but DOW keep chugging along like all is good.
GE was the bullish "STAR" of the day, lets take a closer look:
The industrial giant said its year-over-year revenue rose 1% (this is growth??? really 1%??? how so the "earnings miracle with basically no revenue growth??) to $41.4 billion -- the first positive growth in nine quarters.
GE Capital, the company's finance division that was hard-hit during the financial crisis, continued to bounce back in the fourth quarter. Net income in the unit rose to $1.1 billion from $100 million a year earlier.
GE carries an ENORMOUS AMOUNT OF DEBT NEAR $500 BILLION......what has GE CAPITAL had to writedown on mortgage assets? does anyone know
I don't think correction has run its course, see you all MOnday which has been like a LOCK for gains, will that continue. SOme things do seem to repeat like rallys in December...
No matter what you hold, the value will nosedive as the $ value erodes. THIS is what happens when one group gets preference over another. FED RESERVE policies are directed at the stock market, all things people need FOOD AND ENERGY have skyrocketed.....but the $ we use to buy them has been losing value.
At same time our government is indebting us and future generations with debt we cannot and will never pay off.....higher bond yields under this scenario could touch off an avalanche.
We all might think we're hiding safe in cash, NO % money markets, but if $'s continue to LOSE value, we all lose.
SHort sighted politicians (ignorant ones too) and HARMFUL ZERO RATE FED policies, and direct targeting of the US stock market.....will come back and bite us on the ass
They did have some kind of special running, where you could get .20% on your money......I got very excited.....NOT
Back in the day I remember getting 6% on my Money Market Funds, I was so tickled to give the banks my money and gain without risk. OH what did I do with the interest payments I got? I SPENT IT!!!! IMAGINE THAT!!!
We have HUGE BOOMER POPULATION.......all coming of age over next 10 years....retiring....wanting LESS RISK, wanting to SELL HOMES AND DOWNSIZE......how's that working out?
And how's it gonna work out with the reckless FED intervention and DIRECT manipulation of STOCK MARKETS? WHAT WILL HAPPEN when already at or near RECORD LEVERAGE has reached its limits? are there limits?
IF we had ORGANIC growth my friends, If we had actually gone in and broken up these big banks that control our world so they couldn't damage us like they just have, control us....maybe we HEAL over this period and begin to rebuild oursleves.
HECK NO!!!!!!!!!!!!! We got more newcomer political mumbo jumbo BS promises of "CHANGE" and " TRANSPARENCY"....how's that working out for ya?
NO instead of ROOT OUT the evil and evil doer's we pay them record bonuses, and squash and dismantle their competition (BEAR and LEHMAN the chosen lambs) and now the big banks are COLOSAL BEHEMOTH BANKS that control everything between maybe a mere 4-6 of them.
Has their been ONE, EVEN ONE PROSECUTION OF ANYONE INVOLVED IN THE GREATEST FINANCIAL GAMED CRISIS IN HISTORY?
How is the CHANGE I can believe in? How is pouring TRILLIONS OF DEBT ONTO A COLOSAL PILE OF DEBT and DEFICITS going to fix anything?
The US has reached $14 TRILLION with a "T" in deficits, and are within $300B from a debt ceiling that you can bet will be raised again, and again, and again to infinity.....because the deficits are shattering every record each and every year.....$300 B is chump change.
Secular change in hiring, why would corporations HIRE and ADD overhead, (in general) when they are supposed recording RECORD PROFITS qtr after qtr with what they have? more head count means less profit and less for the INSIDERS.
We have recaptured the stock losses in just 2 years what took 5 years from 2002-2007, some doubling in 16 months. SOme lile mid caps rising to NEW ALL TIME HIGHS>
Sure, the object of this FED largess was to create a WEALTH EFFECT and spur COnsumer Spending, which like every other time they try this was to help companies hire more people....instead like the banks they SIT ON THEIR CASH. THEY HAVE HELPED THEMSELVES.....how's that workin for ya?
How's that meeting with Chinese President doing? Get them to float their currency yet? It's become a dual like bewteen us Mugsy Bogues (5'6" BBAL) and them SHAQ 7ft 350 lbs....all we can do is get some photo opps and smile and say "buy more of our stuff". They agree to buy what they already would buy $45B of planes and shit over some years....WOW does that equal our one month trade deficit with them? HERE WE GO!
The bank posted a fourth quarter shareholder loss of $1.57 billion, or 16 cents a share, compared with a loss of $5.2 billion, or 60 cents a share, a year earlier. Last year's results included a one-time Troubled Asset Relief Program-related charge of $4 billion.
Excluding the mortgage business writedown, the bank earned $756 million, or 4 cents per share.
Analysts projected earnings of 14 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Total revenues decreased 11 percent to $22.7 billion.
The bank's fourth-quarter results were the second straight to include large charges.
In third quarter, the bank reported a $10 billion writedown of its cards business after the U.S. Congress approved a financial reform bill that includes curbs on debit card fees banks can charge merchants."
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Optometrists say as many as one in four viewers have problems watching 3-D movies and TV, either because 3-D causes tiresome eyestrain or because the viewer has problems perceiving depth in real life. In the worst cases, 3-D makes people queasy, leaves them dizzy or gives them headaches.
Researchers have begun developing more lifelike 3-D displays that might address the problems, but they're years or even decades from being available to the masses."
YOU wear the goggles, not for me, give me good acting and directing with story that pulls you in, and BLU RAY is plenty enough fun for me
Wednesday, January 19, 2011
"Wells Fargo 4Q profit up, aided by lower reserves" - AP (same link)
Bank "profits" aided by lowering loan loss reserves? even as housing prices continue to slide?
2010 ends as 2nd worst year for home construction - AP story link
Starts are about 50% LESS than during a normal economy, recovery.
Chinese President HU (not WHO) is here, first visit since 1997. He has stated NO CHANGE IN YUAN currency valuations, and Pres Obama has insisted things muct change, as has Congress. Chinese currency manipulation has destroyed US manufacturing and gives them unfair advantage.
Even a 20% revaluation would not help, Chinese workers on avg make 10% of what US workers make. THEN we have to BORROW to buy the CHinese products...think about it next time to see an ipad that allows 65% margins for Apple....they dont want to make it here, but they want you to buy lots of them...but nobody cares.
A SUPER BULL would be first time one started without dividend yields and PE'S matching the avg of all other MAJOR BEAR BOTTOMS in history....with almost everyone bullish and all in as cash held by FUND MGR'S at all time low.....you always need new money coming in....always must find the greater fool to hand off to....it's ALL PAPER PROFITS until you sell.
The SECULAR change may be employers attitudes towards overhead, meaning head count. LESS people doing more with aide of technology is good for profits.....
WHO THEN is going to buy the enormous inventory of unsold homes and the addt'l shadow inventory held off the market because just like diamonds held in a vault in Russia, it would crash the market.
CHINESE have further hinted they want the YUAN to be the reserve currency, and they are already our equal or better militarily, which they built with US $'s.....thank you very much! welcome to 3rd world status
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
DEEP LAYOFFS IN NJ CITY!! in the MOST crome laden area, #2 in the country..... 50% of police force and large portion of Fire fighters given pink slips......WHO CARES it's just where the poor people are.....there's your damn recovery for ya
*(this is STILL below any prior reading in history of index)
The official release features David Crowe, NAHB Chief Economist, stating: "The HMI and its subcomponent indexes are holding steady following a below-expectations finish in 2010 [...] At this point, housing remains on the sidelines of a weak economic recovery.."
Also I have indicator I use which measures trend of fear vs price, trying to locate any CHANGE of existing trend. This indicator is close to reaching 2000 levels. This alone will not predict a top, but would put me on high alert.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Sunday, January 16, 2011
"I’ll posit that each year of massive government marketable debt issuance reduces the likelihood that central bankers will be able to exit their market liquidity backstop operations. History has shown how systems become precariously addicted to inflationary measures and market interventions. The Fed’s balance sheet will only move in one direction. And when push comes to shove, they may be forced to buy municipal debt or monetize more Treasurys to help finance bailouts. For now, the most important Issue 2011 is that serious structural deficiencies ensure that the Federal Reserve errs on the side of liquidity creation. This would seem to ensure a year of even greater Monetary Disorder, with the risk of heightened instability throughout global fixed-income, currency, commodities and equities markets."
I was listening to financial radio this morning....."buy Ford, but Citigroup, Buy Amazon, Buy Apple......" there was NO talk of valuations, excessive bullishness or possibilities of a correction.
We had a 16% correction last summer, and Lowry's points out NO BULL MKT has ever had 2 PLUS 10% corrections.....and none expected yet.......but maybe 5%?
2011 it would be nice to see some real economic progress, but patient is on GOVT and FED teet and without it, cannot go it alone....or FED FUNDS would not be 0%.....have fun for now, but this kind of prop job cannot last forever and will leave a nasty hangover IMHO.....WHY isnt CHINA jiggy?
Friday, January 14, 2011
Gross leverage for funds has climbed 43 percent from the bottom reached after the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and is up 13 percent in 2010, according to UBS. Risk-taking surged in the second half of the year as hedge funds scrambled to avoid the fate of another year of underperforming the S&P 500 [.SPX 1283.76 --- UNCH (0) ] and as the Federal Reserve signaled it was ready to flood the market with more liquidity through its second round of quantitative easing. "
The good ship lolipop are ALL tucked into the bullish fold with all kinds of leverage ALL pointing in the direction, and all the experts polled are ALL bullish and STOCKS can ONLY go UP.
The stock fell as much as $18.95 to $38 in extended trading at 5 p.m. New York time after the announcement, the biggest drop in more than a decade. Coinstar slipped 28 cents to $56.95 in regular Nasdaq Stock Market trading. The company said today in a statement that it plans to report complete results on Feb. 3.
Coinstar has agreed to a 28-day delay in receiving the latest DVD releases from Hollywood, giving studios a four-week window to sell their latest movies before offering them for rental in Redbox kiosks. The delay requires management to do a better job of selecting titles to keep customers renting while they wait for newer releases, said Michael Pachter, an analyst with Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles."
The central bank on Friday ordered state-owned banks to set aside an additional 0.5 percent of deposits as reserves, effective Jan. 20. Reserves vary by institution but could be close to 20 percent for the biggest commercial lenders.
China's inflation rate jumped to a 28-month high of 5.1 percent in November.
Mindful of the political turmoil linked to past bouts of inflation, Beijing is trying to curb a flood of money in the world's second largest economy following a lending spree triggered by stimulus aimed at fighting the global financial crisis.
Last month, the central bank raised the benchmark 1-year lending rate by a quarter percentage point to 5.81 percent. But it has more often used increases in bank reserves to help reduce the amount of cash circulating in the economy.
Inflation is especially sensitive for Chinese families that spend up to half their incomes on food. Rising incomes have helped to offset price hikes, but inflation undercuts economic gains that help support the ruling Communist Party's claim to power. ***(HERE we take out FOOD and ENERGY when reporting inflation!!)
Chinese banks reportedly lent a total of 7.95 trillion yuan ($1.2 trillion) last year, overshooting the official lending target of 7.5 trillion yuan.
The frenzy of lending over the past two years has helped China rebound quickly from the global crisis. But, combined with bad weather and rising global commodity prices, it has complicated efforts to cool inflation. "
If the economy is so hot, why leave rates at 0%?
Thursday, January 13, 2011
"More people applied for unemployment benefits last week after retailers shed temporary holiday employees. The Labor Department said Thursday that the number of people seeking benefits jumped by 35,000 to a seasonally adjusted 445,000 for the week ending Jan. 8."
There were OUTFLOWS from equity funds first week of 2011 over $4B.....and Bonds got some inflow....is anyone asking WHO is buying? we know who