Monday, February 28, 2011
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Saturday, February 26, 2011
LOS ANGELES –" In a recent interview, United States Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner laid out his view of the nature of world economic growth and the role of the US financial sector. It is a deeply disturbing vision, one that amounts to a huge, uninformed gamble with the future of the American economy – and that suggests that Geithner remains the senior public official worldwide who is most in thrall to the self-serving ideology of big banks."
Martin Feldstein sees a day where China no longer has a trade surplus and that could be trouble."
Doug's "Monetray Disorder"
"But the makings for a serious inflation problem seem to become more cohesive by the week. Global central bankers are determined to bring new meaning to the term “behind the curve,” which connotes eventual “hard landings.”
Friday, February 25, 2011
I think if a person has saved up some HARD EARNED cash, hoping this will do for retirement, that they won't find it worth a LOT LESS than anticipated because it got ravaged by inflation caused by the excessive debt and deficits of our government, and the printing and low 0% rates of the Federal Reserve....the foisting of the $TRILLIONS in bad bets from Financial Institutions onto the balance sheets of the people.
I mean I could buy gold, could have bought gold, but most people do not understand it, and it isn't very liquid. Most don't know how to buy gold, and you can't buy anything directly with it.
It has risen from $300 to about $1,400 in last 10 years. IT has NO DEBTS against it.....for thousands of years it has been real money.....what we use now PAPER FIAT currency ONLY has value because the Gov't says it does, because other accept it as payment for debts....
But the main reason you don't see inflation running so hot it turns you into vapor trail, is because most of that HOT MONEY is sitting with the banks, it is not being loaned out...
ADJ M BASE is now at its highest level in history in what looks to me a PARABOLIC VAULT....take a look for yourself with link I provided.
The WHOLE idea behind the policies were to revive the housing market, it hasn't done that at all....SO WTF are they continuing with ZIRP? It is KILLING savers, when people deposit money with banks, get interest in return that interest gets spent into economy....that is good....and banks have REAL SAVINGS TO LOAN FOR INVESTMENT...which is good.
What we got in place of sound policy is a bloated BS stock market rally which is the birth of yet another bubble...and it can't stand on its own 2 feet or the FED would STOP PUMPING THE SHIT UP......and is why I KNOW they will have to stop sometime and more than likely we get at least a 50% haircut from THE TOP....if it's SPX 1,400, well see you at 700....and when that happens...won't people AGAIN be looking around, asking wondering what the hell happened.....meanwhile no one will have answers and no one will take blame......the ones who DO KNOW what happened will be off in the night...bedding down with their fortunes....stolen from the people.
"Developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan, the McClellan Summation Index is a breadth indicator derived the McClellan Oscillator, which is a breadth indicator based on Net Advances (advancing issues less declining issues). The Summation Index is simply a running total of the McClellan Oscillator values"
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Freddie Mac also posted a $19.8 billion loss for all of 2010.
The government rescued Freddie Mac and sibling company Fannie Mae in September 2008 to cover their losses on soured mortgage loans. It estimates the bailouts will cost taxpayers as much as $259 billion.
Freddie Mac's October-December loss attributable to common stockholders works out to 53 cents a share. It takes into account $1.6 billion in dividend payments to the government. It compares with a loss of $7.8 billion, or $2.39 a share, in the fourth quarter of 2009.
The company said the recovery of the housing market is still fragile. (what recovery?)
"As we begin 2011, the housing recovering remains vulnerable to high levels of unemployment, delinquencies and foreclosures," Chief Executive Charles Haldeman said in a statement. "We expect national home prices to decline this year as housing will continue to take some time to recover."
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac own or guarantee about half of all mortgages in the U.S., or nearly 31 million home loans worth more than $5 trillion. Along with other federal agencies, they played some part in almost 90 percent of new mortgages over the past year."
"The New York World" said on that occasion:
"Criticism of Federal Reserve Board policy by many investors is not based on its attempt to deflate the stock market, but on the charge that the Board itself, by last year's policy, is completely responsible for such stock market inflation as exists."
Currently the FEDERAL RESERVE policies are doing the same thing as what preceded the last great depression. It is directly responsable for the market speculation and has made sure nary a hole exists for reasonable return on your money other than risky speculation.
There easy money, low rate policy led to the very financial crisis we find our selves in, not many seem to understand this
See the action in context of historic price action.....something is not right, but why should that STOP you from riding this WRONG action for huge gains since March 2009 bottom?
Just as NOW, there are rumblings to take some off table.......but TA hasn't confirmed a turn and trend change...except ST. Saying we have $100 oil, Mid East strife, Euro contagion, world inflation.....slow job growth here, etc etc one could argue there is your wall of worry? USA has DYNAMIC economy but it is still hampered, hindered by excessive debt, govt deficits, and a banking system that has tightened std's where even 800 scores dont get money without fight, where HUGE portion of HOME SOLD are to speculators buying foreclosures.
To say the least there is much to be concerned about, and one might be sweet spot on this ride is turning sour and more picky picks and caution is order of day.
Home prices fell nearly 6% during the six months ended Dec. 31, sending values to their lowest levels in the post-bubble period, S&P/Case-Shiller reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing Foreclosures are falling - but it's a fake out 30% of mortgages are underwater
"At least it's not a double whammy where both sales and prices are dropping," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist for PNC Financial Services Group. "Deals are getting done."
That's because 26% of all homes sold last year were foreclosures and short sales, according to a RealtyTrac report released on Thursday. That's down slightly from 2009, but a jump compared to 2010."
OIL TOPS $100........this decline has farther to go IMHO. This may be the ONE we have been looking for and warning about.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp said Wednesday that the number of banks on its confidential "problem" list rose to 884 in the October-December quarter, up from 860 in the previous quarter. Those are banks rated by examiners as having very low capital cushions against risk.
Twenty-two banks have failed so far this year. And more banks are at risk, even as the FDIC reported the industry's highest earnings as a group since the financial crisis hit three years ago. "
Follow through selling today shows sellers are getting more itchy. Any lessening in Middle Easttension could soothe markets for the ST
The nation's largest builder of luxury homes said that while the market "is still tough," it sees improvements "in many places."
Toll Brothers had net income of $3.4 million, or 2 cents per share, for the quarter ended Jan. 31. That compares with a loss of $40.8 million, or 25 cents per share, a year earlier.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet forecast a loss of 8 cents per share.
The quarter included a $20.4 million tax benefit compared with a $16 million tax benefit a year ago.
*Without EXTRA $4.4 MILLION "tax benefit" compared to prior year they lose money
Revenue climbed 2 percent to $334."
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
More importantly to us, total volume on the NYSE rose by a whopping 38% over Fridays.
IMHO, the market will try and shrug this off, we will see the normal 2-7 days rally, but it won't go anywhere and dont expect to see new highs.....then the decline will resume.
Lots of fluff and pomp has been priced into this bloated market....
You know what you know, what you want to know, what they want you to know, but do you know what you need to know?
I have been trying to lay the framework so my readers at least know who is behind them....
ALL these policies, stimulus, FED intervention were SUPPOSED to prop up financial system and help housing recover. What we got was a bailout of the system foisted onto the public and a housing market NOT recovering.
When someone asks what my problem is, I wonder if they see the world I see. The stock market SHOULD have recovered from the selling that ended in arch of 2009, but not to these levels, and not stocks nor housing can stand on own 2 feet ONLY difference is housing is back to 2009 lows…..
Just this THursday at Seeking aplha
"I believe Delcath Systems will have their NDA accepted sometime the last week of February of 2011 with the request for priority review. This will cast DCTH into the spotlight as opinions and rumors will circulate at a feverish pace pertaining to buyout, FDA approval and company worth."
"Both stocks are up over 100% since our initial coverage on them and we believe pending news out of both of these companies will further dictate positive price action in 2011. "
Made Motley FOOLS stock watch needless to say Delcath is getting a HAIRCUT this morning.....cancer cures are one of most popular ways speculators like to GAMBLE their dough.
"Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s biggest retailer, posted a seventh straight quarterly sales decline at its U.S. stores, falling short of its own projections for the holiday period.
Sales at U.S. stores open at least a year fell 1.8 percent in the quarter ended Jan. 28, Wal-Mart said in a statement today. Chief Executive Officer Mike Duke said in October that U.S. comparable sales would be “positive.” Analysts projected a 0.2 percent drop, on average, according to a Bloomberg survey."
WalMart same store sales open more than year fell MORE than expected.....on your favorite brainless TV MSM show they atribute it to something WMT did wrong....not any problem with Consumer....of course WMT'S fav consumers are those who may not give 2 hoots about stocks advances and maybe more on the value of their homes and can they get a job.
Todays futures weakness points to a red open, only thing matters to me is what kind of selling we get, stay tuned. Blame it on a NZ earthquake, Mid East unrest or rise in oil prices.....take your pick.....will zombie investors get a glimpse of what happens when one mindlessly follows the herd?
CASE SHILLER FALLS MORE THAN EXPECTED....darn how those "experts" get fooled and confused. HOW strong can the US economy BE without HOUSING coming along?????????? WMT same store sales fall for 7th straight month.....g-d bless the LITTLE PEOPLE forgotten......G-D BLESS FED and govt policies aimed ONLY at inflation of shit and assets.....say a prayer for the 70% who sit on the beach while the idiot with potato chips attracts every seagull in a miles stretch of beach to fly over their heads....
Monday, February 21, 2011
I am expecting the market to again peak in the March-April time frame. We can only asess ANY selling after the fact to see if anything has changed with THE TREND
Sunday, February 20, 2011
If 7 of the last 8 recoveries were led by housing, and for good reason, what leads this one?
All anecdotes of people shopping, blah blah, are always there, but what DRIVES this "recovery".
If you cannot answer anything other than fiscal and historic FED intervention, don't bother. history tells us how that ends up.
BULL mkt in stocks, I'm not blind or dumb, enough to still ask why.
Saturday, February 19, 2011
It is the forced and RECORD intervention part that tell me most likely this is not a 20 year bull, but interlude.....fact SPX 400 and others at NEW Highs, not sure how to work that into long term bear scenario......except THEY have turned everything on its head. THIS, what we are witnessing did not happen on its own, so my guess is some even more unsavory imbalances are building only to top and pop down the road.
And the VERY Thing needing assistance and resuscitation, HOUSING....stands at bottom of the worst it was, with little upside movement noticeable.
Friday, February 18, 2011
Home sales collapsed after a federal tax credit for buyers expired in April. Since then, the manufacturing-led expansion, which began in the second half of 2009, has been waning, with jobless claims rising and factory orders falling."
"The new adjusted monetary base, adjusted total reserves and adjusted nonborrowed reserves time series are chain indexes created in segments. Major changes in the structure of reserve requirements demarcate the beginning and end of segments, and are the reason why these are calculated as chain indexes. The reserve adjustment magnitude, or RAM, "adjusts" the monetary base for changes in the demand for base money due to changes in statutory reserve requirement ratios within a given structure of reserve requirements (where the structure defines the types of deposits that are reservable, perhaps by class or type of depository institution), conditional on an assumed model of depository institutions' demand for base money; see Burger and Rasche (1977) and Anderson and Rasche (1996a). When there is a major change in the structure of reserve requirements - such as the extension of reserve requirements to nonmember banks and thrifts under the Monetary Control Act - carrying the same RAM across the break is inappropriate. Rather, the old RAM should end and a new RAM start. During periods both before and after the break, for example, the AMB equals the sum of the monetary source base and a RAM - but not the same RAM before and after the break.
Adjusted Monetary Base
The adjusted monetary base equals the sum of the monetary source base and an appropriate RAM adjustment."
I DO NOT KNOW HOW LONG THEY CAN KEEP THEM MIRAGE AND LIE OF RECOVERY FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, BUT IMHO I AM ISSUING A VERY CRITICAL AND STERN WARNING THAT WHEN THIS DOES END, A SECULAR BEAR WILL RETURN WITH DEVESTATING RESULTS IF ONE IS NOT PREPARED.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Claims jump to 410,000......some EW'ers see a WAVE 5 top in place....not so sure about that...
Eurozone construction output fall quickened in December, as bad weather conditions derailed activities in all reported member nations except Slovenia. Germany saw the fastest monthly decline of 24.1% in the final month of 2010 and output fell 4.1% in France
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Off shored and shipped out and globalized, many lost jobs are not coming back, and for the new IT and Globalization jobs, we got plenty of competition for those. There is a hungry 3rd world and Asian population thirsty and starving for the good life.
Maybe the stock market is telling us we have “A” Recovery, but it’s job is not to tell us what kind of Recovery it is, that is for us to figure out, because if it ever decides, it wasn’t as great as it seemed, there is plenty of downside to cover and bullishness to be corrected.
Rising costs due to commodities is causing all kinds off FOOD CHAIN price increases, and it’s really in the CPI and PPI no matter what the figures actually show. Back to back near 1% monthly gains in PPI point to near 12% yr/yr Producer inflation, no one is talking, no one is asking the right questions.
Its stupid to argue there is NO inflation. When the stuff that goes into making EVERYTHING is at or near record highs…..if producers cannot pass along the costs it will affect profits.
Healthcare reform? Health Care costs are THROUGH THE ROOF, will policies begin to come down in price? NO
Did we need to extend the Bush tax cuts? NO! Is it important that we shave $100 B a year from government budgets? When we increase them by 15%? When budget deficits are soaring to $1.5 TRILLION and no end in sight. ALL this money has to be borrowed. WILL THE FED continue to be borrower of first and last resort? Isn’t there some limit to this game?
ZIRP policy DISTORTS and DEFILES a free market system and does major damage to allowing money and investment to flow where it is needed the most.
A rising stock market makes us feel better, but it pales to what was lost in value for homeowners. But this is the strategy of the Federal Reserve, they have made it there policy and aim to RAISE ASSET PRICES…..sorry, bull markets are great when they are not MAN MADE. When they are not made from the free market system that spanks bad investment and rewards good investment…..putting magnates on the roulette wheel is not a true fix.
Companies will not hire like before, and with the majority of who lost their jobs still without jobs, a full 2 years plus into recovery, and after a 90% historic stock V shaped rally, all of a sudden companies will splurge on hiring?
What do all those unemployed use for Consumer spending? We have this wonderful recovery but at the same time we now have RECORD amount of Americans NEEDING and getting government assistance. ADD to that anywhere above $75B to maybe $90B added to economy from those deciding to NOT PAY their mortgages (strategic defaults).
At the same time the AVG American has most of their wealth tied up in their homes, the avg price of a home is still falling and sales and construction are VERY NEAR The worst it ever was…..not even the most WILD EYED BULLISH enthusiast could look at housing charts and tell me different. So we printed our way and added debt to an already unmanageable pile and that is how we reach prosperity?
We have a recovery, but you must be one who has a job to appreciate that.
What should be of some importance is have we built something sustainable? If your BEDROCK is a banking system hiding losses or a debt that JUST got shifted from the Banks to the PEOPLE……when accounting standards have changed in such a way as Today’s financial reporting of profits is not anything like previous to the GAO change and suspension of Mark To Market (which then OVER STATES PROFITS)…….when the too big to fail banks are now bigger than ever before……and government just keeps getting BIGGER and SPENDS MORE and MORE we don’t have…..I say we got some work to do.
It has and always has been about NOT PAYING THE PIPER……there’s always another election to push off important topics or real needed change…..or telling it like it is to the American Public, that there are NO FREE LUNCHES….someone has to pay…I guess let the insiders and lobbyists figure it out.
In the meantime, I am marketing a cream that eases the discomfort from those rub marks on your ankles caused by continuous grabbing…..I don’t give a shoot, I’m going to be rich!
The policy of LOW BOTTOM 1% interest rates fueled the last crisis and proved the FED hasn’t MUCH of a clue, and that led to the worst financial crisis since THE GREAT DEPRESSION. Instead of healing from that, instead of letting the market sort things out…..the FED stepped in again with some NEW FINANCIAL ENGINEERING, lowered rates to 0% this time and have held them there for a historic period of time…….adding new never before tested tools like TARP and QE I and 2 and who knows what else. Countless $trillions of stimulus, and gobs of gov’t debt….and all I got was this crummy T-SHIRT!....”CASTLES MADE OF SAND…. SLIP INTO THE SEA……EVENTAULLY”
(why is stock market rally one of 2 best in history?)
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION PEAKS? is now contracting.
"Apartments push home construction up in January"
PPI flew .8% after rising .9% prior month....but of course BERNANKE says not to worry about inflation....remember Ben we're DUMB not STUPID
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
I love this " Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen they they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."
Til my voice goes, we are not witnessing the beginning of a new age of growth and prosperity.....I wish we were, but an upsurge from a beaten down bottom that anything would look better.
Where did all that DEBT go? from THEM to US!!
Monday, February 14, 2011
HNI SALES CLIMB 19.9% in 4th qtr 2010 (sounds good right?)
sales were $466.1 MILLION 4th qtr
Fiscal 2010 sales $1.7 Billion (wow!)
2007 Sales results
4th QTR $668 MILLION
Fiscal 2007 sales were $2.6 Billion
There’s your recovery
"Reputation Risk from Foreclosures Jolts MBS Trustee Banks to Act
Bad: When a newspaper ridicules your CEO for wrongful foreclosures.
Worse: When the foreclosure was initiated by another company.
Maddening: When even top executives at the bank don't realize that — and blame your department.
That's the situation Lee Mitau, U.S. Bancorp's general counsel and an executive vice president, found himself in last month. "
Seahawk's Pain is Hercules' Gain
"There's also some boom and bust news in the off-shore oil sector today: Seahawk Drilling will seek Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and sell 20 rigs to Hercules Offshore for $100 million. HAWK plunges 62 percent in the premarket on the move, but HERO is up 19 percent following positive comments from analysts at Weeden and Jefferies. "
In 2007 BGP was over $23 a share.
After accounting for nearly 70% of all mortgages issued during the boom, ARMs vanished during the bust, totaling just 3% of the market in 2009. Now they make up 5% of all mortgages issued, and Freddie Mac predicts 10% by December.
Other stories at link
ARMs helped sink the economy - now they're back!
Foreclosures are falling - but it's a fake out
30% of mortgages are underwater
Whose house is being saved by Obama?
Las Vegas: Still the foreclosure king
Behind the comeback is a simple fact: ARMs are a great bargain right now. The most common ARM loan currently has a rate of 3.5% compared to 5% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.
"For anyone with a high likelihood of moving soon, the 5/1 is a great product," said Michael Fratantoni, vice president of research and economics for the Mortgage Bankers Association. "It's a well understood product too; there's not a lot of danger with it."
I'm so glad that the GSE'S see adj rate mortgages rising to 10% of their new products in the near future....do these idiots ever learn?
Do you wonder why the FED is targeting the stock market for appreciation? because they are incapable of doing much more, 30% of mortgages held are underwater? that is staggering figure...FED policy or Obama promises helping them out?
Let's see, the most basic rule that markets follow is SUPPLY AND DEMAND. We have record need to issue debt, we have dwindling interest from abroad in our debt. FED BALANCE SHEETS ARE BLOATED and are buyers of first and last resort.
You know what really ticks me off? Is the constant bullish banter, even from my inner circle group of market pros. Now, maybe it's just me, but the current situation and backdrop disgusts me, and I don't see the same thing the stock market portrays....what I see is a system run amok, savers getting raped, and the average American is bent over holding their ankles....and I'll continue to speak out, and tell it like it is (or at least how I see it) til I cannot anymore.
"The era of falling clothing prices is ending. But as the world economy recovers and demand for goods rises, a surge in labor and raw materials costs is squeezing retailers and manufacturers who have run out of ways to pare costs."
NOPE, NO INFLATION BEN! Highest prices for fuel in Winter ever....NOPE NO INFLATION must be roaring economy!
Unemployment falls to 9% a drop of .8% in 2 months, one of the fastest decline in history....MUST BE STOKED ECONOMY? NOPE record amounts giving up and falling off the rolls or SNOWED IN.
DEMAND for our bonds keeps falling, FED balance sheet has bulged to $2.5 TRILLION! BUT bullish % for US Treasuries is in single digits.....some kind of rally is imminent.....and if yields catch a bid, that should coincide with a stock market decline.
Sunday, February 13, 2011
ROLLBACK THE GOVT READ FREE CHAPTER HERE
There's nothing wrong with being bullish or bearish, just some periods you have to step aside if nothing less.
http://lowryresearch.com/ This has been my most trusted, respected sub for market data, I have recently let my sub lapse as it is very expensive.....but if we break down nuts and bolts of JUST MARKET ACTION, then we want to see accurate picture of supply and demand.
Here's what I can say, The market exhibits the stats of a bull market, and the early phases of buying has extended maybe twice as long as avg bull....there you can buy almost anything and make money.
But in phase 2 of 3, investors get much more picky and we have seen market breadth deteriorate over the last 30 days as it appears people are less willing to chase, and maybe more willing to sell....this could very well be just a short term phenom as we both know tops are usually made as all those on sidelines watching can;t resist anymore.....the very time the incrowd picks up their selling....AKA bagholders.
MANY argue rising, near historic SPX profits, they would be correct, however this is tainted with GAO END TO MARK TO MARKET replaced with fantasy earnings....
Bullishness at 2007 peak. VIX below 16, but until it changes to rising trend it is signalling complacency, not bear mkt.....the GROUNDWORK IS SET FOR A SERIOUS CORRECTION of at least 3-5% IMHO
RIGGED MKT.....rises almost every MOnday.....Business is still being done, but jobs are not plentiful, has their been a secular shift in hiring?
The INternet creates opportunity, but it also hurts local merchants and costs jobs, when will FREE RISE of NO TAX ON PURCHASES BE OVER?....how much revenue has gov't just given away?
BIG holes in what govt takes in and what goes out...TAXES WILL RISE.
Highest FUEL costs in history for FEB....this is another tax and eats up tax cut.
Strategic defaults by one measure add $90B a year in consmer spending.
SPX 400 MID CAPS AT ALL TIME NEW HIGHS....many not far behind.....when will FED TAKE FOOT OFF GAS? CPI manipulated here, so they do as they want.
SAVERS RAPED! A MILLION $'s gets you $100 of MM interest, who forgot SAVERS SPEND interest payments, they cannot do so now....RISK IS ONLY GAME....and that tells me RISK IS NOW IN EVERYTHING YOU CAN BUY....when the music ends in this PONZI MUSICAL CHAIR GAME....that could later than sooner, but it will come.....the rally isn't consistant with real life on the main street data I see and hear.
In conclusion the market is close to transitioning into the next phase of this bull market, and I suspect it will get narrower foucs and many will find it harder to make gains......
All told, investors deposited a net $21.3 billion to U.S. stock funds in January, the biggest monthly increase since a net inflow of $23 billion in February 2004, industry consultant Strategic Insight said Friday."
Saturday, February 12, 2011
I have talked to some of the MOST ARDENT OBAMA supporters, the word "sellout" comes to mind and they once singed his praises, he could do all andno wrong, now he is utter dissapointment....yeah a sellout to his core supporters.
I am a Republican, I did not want extension of all of the Bush tax cuts, we couldn't afford them nor will they help economy......who among you ar shit happy you will keep more of your dividend payouts?.....you must not be insider
Then......it is my focus to be on emerging mkts, especially China....and especially if the 2009 highs are bettered. In 2003 bull it wasnt until LATE 2005 that China exploded in a parabolic fashion....with rising int rates IMHO the sentiment has been dampened enough to lay the groundwork for a bullish outcome.
Some things never change. Parallel MA'S (especially weekly of the 10/40 kind) that move together are a CLEAR signal of the market voting mechanism, when rising one above the other it is unmistakingly BULLISH. PERIOD. Calling a top or bottom, requires much more attention and TA, but for purpose of a trend, there is NOTHING better.
ONLY when these MA'S reverse course CROSS, then begin to diverge Parallel downward do we have confirmation that the voting machine has cast its vote for a bear market. PERIOD You cannot have bull without the rising MA's, you cannot have BEAR without falling MA's....not the 5/ 20 day kind.
Now this will not tell you that a top is here.....not trying to do that......and depending on the amount of buying and selling, like in 2009, the cross will come way too late to be helpful, everything has exceptions, but ONCE TREND GETS ESTABLISHED s it has been.....the MA'S will confirm every single time....each share bought or sold is a vote.
NOW, in our current situation, we are getting NO HELP from interest rates, and this is one of my reasons for seeing this s cyclical bull. Long term rates YES rising, but because of HUGE DEBT requirements.....wouldn't you think supply and demand would take hold, I do. BUT THE FED FUNDS RATE HELD AT 0% for 2 PLUS YEARS, that is ANYTHNG but BULLISH......that is the essence of BEARISH...WHY? because FED FUNDS RISE WHEN ECONOMY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO HANDLE THEM......RISING RATES ARE BULLISH!!! (even if initial reaction may cause selling).
FED FUNDS FALLING IS BEARISH, WHY? because economy is WEAK and cannot stand on its own.....sell into falling rates.....BUT AT SOME POINT, THIS WILL ALMOST ALWAYS OCCUR when rates have reached the bottom of move (1% in 2003, 0% in 2009)..........the don't fight the FED scenario will finally play out, as those BOTTOM CATFISH RATES begin to work their magic, by then FEAR has swarmed over would be bargain hunter, and only the in crowd begins to buy. AS the FED finally began raising rate
in 2003 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5333876/.....THAT WAS signal bull was oN!!!!
NOTICE falling rates in 2000 (BEAR) rising rates (2003) BULL.!!!
BUT what's different this time friends? RATES ARE STAYING at 0% for a historic period of time.....I CANNOT interpret this as BULLISH BY ANY SCENARIO!!!! not by any historic measure or experience.
FED ACTION is then fostering probably the greatest, most dangerous BUBBLE of our lifetimes and this bull maybe only chance to prepare for its arrival.
FROM "NO EXITS" CREDIT BUBBLE REPORT
"Indeed, I would argue strongly that not until the government finance Bubble bursts will it be possible to comprehend the true costs of the ongoing mortgage crisis. The scope of this problem won’t really be appreciated until today’s extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus has run its course; not until market yields are left to adjust to less government intrusion and intervention; not until inflated U.S. income levels are weaned from massive government expenditures; not until the requisite restructuring of the U.S. economy is on course; and not until private Credit is able to make inroads into market-based home lending.
The Administration and congress are content to delay a timely exit from massive fiscal stimulus, fearing the economy might fall right back into recession. The Fed is also content, worried of what an exit from quantitative easing would mean for a marketplace that must muster the necessary liquidity to fund intractable federal deficits at low interest rates. And I believe all of Washington is content to defer any meaningful mortgage finance reform until they perceive that housing markets have recovered. Yet it will take years – and a huge increase in government-backed mortgage Credit – to revitalize our nation’s housing markets. And this is why I refer to – and worry greatly about - the unfolding government (Treasury, Federal Reserve, and the GSEs) finance Bubble.
Returning to Mr. Dimon’s comments from above, my guess is that the head of JPMorgan and many other persons of influence have similar thoughts about rapidly expanding Federal obligations as they did previously with the GSEs. As we witnessed with Fannie and Freddie, the powers that be will not intervene to repress a Bubble, especially when it is viewed as providing near-term benefits and rather nebulous longer-term risks. I have no doubt that there will be more crisis committees, inquests, and reports. There will be additional questions about Fannie, Freddie, and new issues with the FHA and unmanageable federal debt. I expect similar answers: “We all knew about it, we all worried about it, no one did anything about it.”
HOW can the GSE's be cut loose? there is NO private lending for mortgages!!!! the heroine addict is hopelessly addicted to guarantees.
NOW TO VIX......a falling VIX is BULLISH, RISING VIX BEARISH....very simple if you get trend correctly. even at 15 the VIX is signalling BULL MKT. Not until it hit SINGLE DIGITS last bull did it reach a level, that one would HAVE to consider exit strategy.....and not confirmed until it began bearish rising pattern.
That's my story and Im sticking to it, NO matter where you say it started, in 1974 or 1982, stocks hits all time highs in 2007, NOW just 2 years after bear ended, some indexes are at NEW ALL TIME HIGHS....and the favs are close behind....did the greatest bull mkt in history never end?