Thursday, March 31, 2011
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
Monday, March 28, 2011
Saturday, March 26, 2011
The stock market has had a nice run the Dow is up 5.2% and 600 points in just the last 7 trading days! but the avg up volume has ONLY been 63% over this time and by other measures this is a very suspect rally from a technical standpoint....SO FAR there has been good point gains but the up volume has yet to crack 90% and only once 80% during this time....it had been preceded by 2 90% down volume days and expansion of volume during the selloff.
SLuggish demand seems to be meeting distribution.....and IMHO we are RIPE to resume downtrend in the ST UNLESS we get significant surge in buying demand.
" Here's one way to conceive of just how big the problem is.
If lawmakers wanted to permanently freeze the debt held by the public at the today's level -- 62% of GDP -- they would need to immediately cut spending by 35% or about $1.2 trillion, according to the Government Accountability Office. And those cuts would need to be permanent from hereon out.
How hard would that be?
Consider that in 2010, all of discretionary spending -- including defense -- totaled $1.35 trillion. In other words, to do deficit reduction all on the spending side means "you have to cut into the real meat," said Roberton Williams, senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center.
Consider, too, how much fun lawmakers are having right now trying to negotiate spending cuts for this year alone. Their working range: Between $10 billion and $61 billion."
Friday, March 25, 2011
"I never expected to have to live through anything like this," he said mournfully. Suzuki is one of Soma's luckier residents, but the tsunami washed away the shop where he sold fish and seaweed.
"My business is gone. I don't think I will ever be able to recover," said Suzuki, 59.
Still, he managed to find a bright side. "The one good thing is the way everyone is pulling together and helping each other. No one is stealing or looting," he said.
"It makes me feel proud to be Japanese."
I can attest, I was in japan (when we got 255 yen for $1) 25 years ago……..even the cab drivers wore white gloves….could go out at night almost anywhere, NEVER FEAR CRIME!!! Always polite….couteous, friendly (got as far as Kyota)…..this country…..cant always say same
Government would be FORCED to get smaller, tax less....spend less. NO LOBBY GROUPS allowed to create special interests.....or people who can be bought off.
NO DIVIDEND TAX BREAKS which let the UBER RICH (who have millions of shares) keep more money and the AVG dude could care less, they don't own enough stocks for this to matter...
LOWER TAXES AND DUES TOO ALL WORKING PEOPLE.....not the already disgusting filthy insiders who like a GE pay no taxes........FREE HEALTH CARE TO ALL US CITIZENS paid for by increased taxes on the UBER WEALTHY and LESS GOVT spending on WARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The current sysetms in place in our world in particular will not last many years down the road....as a majority of citizens get tried of being hosed and sold out and SADDLED WITH THE INSIDERS BAD DEBTS for generations to come as they WAX RICH at OUR EXPENSE!
UBER WEALTHY PEOPLE (yes I am Republican) should be taxed out the ass....so maybe they only have 2 10,000 sq ft mansions.......MORE GOES BACK TO THE WORKING STIFF people......in the form of LOWER TAXES for ALL making under $500,000 a year......but for those making 10's of millions.......you can afford to and should pay much more than current, that can ONLY be done with a FLAT TAX....period.......the REAL consumers of the world paying less in taxes and getting FREE HEALTH CARE (as do Canadians) will be freed up to buy all the unsold homes, buy durable goods......revitalize the economy...let the PEOPLE CHOOSE WHERE THE MONEY GOES.....and do away with all the STUPID SUBSIDIES....if something can't stand on it's own then it shouldn't be....like ETHANOL for instance....how stupid is that?
When you have a system that outsizes returns for a VERY FEW (dont lecture me on the 1% pay 90%.....) and the life they lead so doesn't look like the avg persons........the system needs an overhaul.
COMPANIES taxes should not be raised EXCEPT companies like GE who are allowed to shelter profits OVERSEAS....and nothing is done...wonder why Obama is so buddy up with Immelt?
FED RESERVE SYSTEM ABOLISHED....let rates be born of a FREE MARKET SYSTEM...the FED'S manipulating has gotten us booms, but they always are followed by bigger and BIGGER BUSTS!!!! and has cost the US $ 40% of its value since 2000.
A SYSTEM that SCREWS SAVERS.....and ONLY REWARDS RISK TAKERS.
BANKSTERS BAD DEBTS GET FOISTED ON THE PUBLIC (BANK BAILOUTS, FREDDIE MAC ETC) ??? nobody asked us........ or maybe they did, we said no, they did it anyways.
LAST time I looked, the worst financial crimes in history, the worst crisis is followed by ZERO PROSECUTIONS???
Last time I looked the housing market is at worst levels ever, savers get 0%, few jobs, food and energy are through the roof (but fed will say "inflation contained") but the stock market soars.....and that's where the 1% are saying THANK YOU!!
STOCK MARKET GAINS VS real policy and in the meantime the HOUSING MARKET HAS RECORDED ITS WORST DATA in the 50 years since it began tabulating....so there's progress.....well this is just a beginning point for discussion...last time I looked our govt was supposed to be FOR THE PEOPLE, BY THE PEOPLE......and we don't wage wars without Congressional debate and consent........we need change and we need it now..... FAILED POLICIES should not go rewarded...
WHAT after all the "good" news recently will provide buyers more a reason to STEP IT UP? or WHAT would give reason for buyers to come in strong enough to break out above the 1325 and above levels?
Pray for QE3 like QE1 and QE2 have proven effective for the economy...for stocks....we know answer it's been the saviour from going back to the bear market....even I can appreciate that wisdom...
Read what you want, believe what you want, the stock market IS NOT the economy nor does it reflect the economy, if it did, it would be half its current price level, IMHO.
In the 50 years it has kept track of housing data, new home sales NEVER released data poorer than this weeks report and this is after 2 PLUS years of 0% ZIRP....all the incentives......2 PLUS years of supposed recovery.......you would expect SLOW CONSTANT rise in this data not a FALL TO NEW LOWS!!!
What then interests the stock market? there are ALL kinds of companies in it, so we know commodity based and energy based companies are flying. We know most banks mistate earnings because of suspension of mark to market accounting, because home values continue to drop....we know we have RECORD amount of Americans on gov't assistance.....there are many troubling signs.....as CORE INFLATION really heats up.....
We know the unemployment data is cooked and does not reflect the actual situation....there is little real hiring going on...without HOUSING contributing to economy....we already see DURABLE GOODS peaking and now declining and there are a lot less people buying homes and and all that conncected action of things you would purchase, people you would hire is just not there....so YOU tell me....what IS driving this economy?
IN A WORD IT IS THE FED and CB policy around the world....except some have begun to tighten.....some talk of cutting back.....that leaves the US CB'ers, our FED to goose the world economy...and in some SICK deveiant reaction the world is counting on QE3 and beyind like it will never end and this is a good thing, that theses FED policies lead to recovery and prosperity.
"Spend Our Way To Prosperity"
" In his State of the Union Address, President Obama spoke briefly about cutting the deficit but gave far more attention to ambitious new spending programs to revive the economy. He still hasn’t accepted a common sense notion most Americans understand: you can’t borrow and spend your way to prosperity. Even if deficits were reduced, every new dollar of government expenditure takes money for the public sector out of the private, for-profit economy. Spending for roads, bridges and other useful infrastructure--let alone "investment" in scams like high speed rail and solar power-- still means increased burdens on taxpayers and less money for business to expand and to create long-term jobs. The key question before the country is whether to continue growing government and imposing new burdens on the private economy, or reducing the cost of government and giving business the chance to breathe and grow."
This morning we get another GDP revision, but it really doesn't matter.....blowing BUBBLES is our main policy and until we demand different that's what it will be be....we will go from BOOM to BUST.....this time the BOOM is only felt by those involved in stocks......mainly the insiders.........majority of people have their lives invested in their HOMES, not in stocks......and I have proven how little effectiveness current policies have proven to improve that situation...in the meantime current policies are proving VERY DESTRUCTIVE and especially to those looking for interest income....NEVER A GOOD IDEA to have a unbalanced economy....
Investment in gold and energy has proven a wise strategy for now.....
Thursday, March 24, 2011
looking at this chart WHAT HAPPENS after durables PEAK and begin to decline? (especially after touching the 20% line) THEY GOURGED THE RECOVERY into a compact time frame...and it looks like its over. A drop below 0% would seal it for sure IMHO....but then we have the mkt TA as well...add in housing chart of worst data in the FIFTY YEARS since they began tabulating it......the banks want to pay dividends????? with what??????
Home values keep dropping, what does that do to underlying value of all those mortgages held???????????????????????? but they don't have to mark them to market value do they???
That is why I say SPX earnings is a doggone SHAM, BS...make believe, a lie....misleading....a FRAUD....how do you change how some companies report profit and loss in midstream?....so you can mislead people.
We don't even have a wall of worry here, we're trying to climb over a TSUNAMI..... DO YOU believe companies are now hiring? DO YOU believe we have inflation under control?
The rally has gotten so narrow, so few participating, that on a major UP day like yesterday 53% of the volume was selling!
*foreclosure vote could rock thebanks**
"The big banks face fresh scrutiny of their handling of the mortgage mess – from their own boards, no less.
Shareholders at Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) could vote this spring to compel their audit committees to investigate the banks' mortgage and foreclosure practices, and report back by fall.
The votes will come despite much eye-rolling from the banks, which have tended to be less than forthcoming on the subject. Bank of America and Citi petitioned regulators to keep shareholders from voting on the proposal, which is sponsored by the New York City pension funds led by city comptroller John C. Liu. But the Securities and Exchange Commission ruled this month that the votes must go on."
WHY should the market care or react to news that Housing data fell to its lowest level EVER in the 50 YEARS since data was compiled...yeah BULLY!
Wednesday, March 23, 2011
The warning comes two months after Cree reported Q2 results that missed its own projections because of an inventory correction in Asia. "
Sales of new U.S. homes plunged in February to the fewest on records dating back nearly half a century, a dismal sign for an already-weak housing market.
LET me preview the 10 AM data due out today, after peakng in 2005
(stocks in 2007..YES a warning then!) we went from 1.4 MILLION per year to UDER 240,000 PLEASE let that sink in and the effect that IS having on our economy......we are having such a raucus recovery that we have RECORD unmbers on govt assistance...IMHO stocks are NOT done correcting
More uplifting news:
"The problem stems from the massive increase in jobless claims during the Great Recession. The surge drained state unemployment trust funds, forcing states to borrow from a federal fund to cover their 26 weeks of unemployment benefits.
Some 32 states now owe $45.7 billion to the fund, and could have to pay about $1.4 billion in interest this year. The burden will fall mainly on businesses, which will have to pay more in unemployment taxes." (cnn.com)
These "hidden" costs of health care -- like taking time off to care for elderly parents -- add up to $363 billion, according to a report from the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions, a research group.
6Email Print That amounts to $1,355 per consumer, on top of the $8,000 the government says people spend on doctor fees and hospital care.
"We're surprised that this number came in so high. It's significant," said Paul Keckley, executive director with the group.
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto said she expects the U.S. recovery to continue at a moderate pace, with rising commodity and energy prices only temporarily putting pressure on broader consumer prices.
"The recovery seems to have established a firmer footing. I am seeing clearer signs of a virtuous cycle of growth," Pianalto said in a speech at the University of Akron.
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, speaking in Frankfurt, Germany, said the U.S. recovery was gathering momentum and needs no further Fed support.
"The Fed has done enough, if not too much, and we should do no more. In my opinion no further accommodation is necessary after June," Fisher said.
If we were doing so bleeping good why are rates at ZERO STILL? DO THEY EVER MENTION THE DATA IN THE HOUSING MARKET?
Saudi's know how to buy off their people, offer jobs and money......
Currency intervention by the G-7 in order to "HELP JAPAN".....let's get this straight, the G-7 nations, together will attempt to manipulate currency market so the YEN DECLINES IN VALUE!
This will help the Japanese people and economy? how? by making everything they need for reconstruction MORE expensive by bringing down value of currency?.....so they need MORE OF IT? Japan is already one of the MOST INDEBTED NATIONS ON EARTH.
From what I understand.......the real issue is the ZIRP Japanese CB policy and carry trade games that have attracted quite a sepculative crowd.....these would include BIG BANKS and FUNDS who have borrowed YEN (at 0%) or SOLD SHORT YEN...and bought other stuff with it...a NO BRAINER...only one thing can harm these "SPECULATORS"......if for some reason the YEN rises in value...when you are short betting on its demise and fall.
MORAL.....like here. If you are the IN CROWD......you get bailed out at expense of all others........when will the little guy investor wake up and figure out "ITS A RIGGED GAME".
Savers here get GORED by 0% on savings (they need to suppliment retirement) and at same time the value of the currency $ is slip sliding away.......stable currency policy? haa
SECTOR supposed to be SAVED and BENEFIT from ZIRP and other assinine FED policies? HOUSING...how's that doing?
Monday, March 21, 2011
3 wars now? All 3 without FORMAL declaration of war and Congressional approval to wage war......it is so sad to me, that the avg American lays asleep to the raping of the constitution and would otherwise just roll over and show the other cheek to be defiled? or even realize something unsavery is taking place?
It's all about the Benjamins...not the Franklins......or the founding fathers....or about the average American......look how we always get SOLD OUT....where is the GOV'T option in health care?
There is NONE! and we got an 11% 2011 increase and it just keeps going UP....the health care bill was a joke!
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Depends on WHAT time frame. for me this mkt keeps boogey woogey if holds above 1200....dashed uptrend line. 1209 is 10% from highs....1200 would also violate an L rule with 2nd 10% plus correction during bull mkt...already had one of 16% that was only halted by QE2...would not have on own....but that's OK.
The food was taken from farms as far as 65 miles (100 kilometers) from the stricken plants, suggesting a wide area of nuclear contamination.
While the radiation levels exceeded the limits allowed by the government, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano insisted the products "pose no immediate health risk."
SO which one is it? are they SAFE.....or does it exceed gov't saftey standards? They will lose CRED as fast as our FED !
Friday, March 18, 2011
• United States Nears Hyperinflationary Great Depression • Federal Reserve and Government Have Exploded the U.S. Fiscal Crisis, Shattered Global Confidence in the U.S. Dollar but Not Resolved Ongoing Economic and Systemic-Solvency Crises • High Risk of Ultimate Dollar Disaster Beginning to Unfold in Months Ahead, 2014 Remains the Outside Timing for Same • Contracting Money Supply Can Be Inflationary When Real Economy Contracts Even Faster • Major Economic Series Suggest Formal Depression in Place"
Lots of good stuff here, must be subscriber to get more details.
From ZERO HEDGE "adjusted M base goes vertical"
*(from Feb 24th) now even MORE SO!!
"A succinct reminder from Mises Institute: "The Adjusted Monetary Base is the one monetary component completely under the control of the Federal Reserve." As we expected a month ago when predicting the end of the SLP program, look for this chart to surge to about $2.7 trillion as the combination of SLP unwind and another $500 billion in UST purchases adds another $600 billion to the BASE. The increase of $142 billion in the last two weeks is the 5th largest Adjusted Monetary Base expansion in history. The ongoing verticalization of this chart may result in some further acuteness of inflationary expectations."
Explanation for the YEN rising is the prospect of rebuilding the tsunami area will attract YEN...rising currencies are BAD for exports as prices rise with appreciation....funny how a US $ in the TOILET isn't making much difference for us.....except stoke inflation......as cost of OIL imports and inflated economies raise prices of goods sent to US will get passed on to consumers at some point....if companies eating any of this, it should hurt their profits big time.
Yesterdays rally was strong enough on surface but volume fell significantly vs decline day....buying was more selective into big caps as small and mid cap stocks underperformed.
IMHO this is a SNAP BACK rally
Thursday, March 17, 2011
The Nikkei 225 index, the most prominent measure of stocks traded in Tokyo, climbed 260 points, or 2.9%, shortly after the market opened. The Hang Seng gained 0.5%, while the Shanghai Composite was flat."
Revised last report from 397,000 to 401,000. 385,000 this report, NOT indicative of an economy gearing up to create jobs.
We had a 90% down volume day Wed, and now the expected bounce off oversold begins.......
CPI came in HOT at .5%, but you know the game, strip out the important stuff and no worries...
THE US $ is off 1% to 75.94 this morning.....how about that FLIGHT TO QUALITY? now at lowest level of 2011..rally is based on U S $ in the crapper....
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Monday, March 14, 2011
Japans NIKK is off another 6.5% at 8,999 that's 13% in 2 trading days....you may think our markets are just shrugging this off mostly, but consider the rally for the last 2 years has been supported by FED liquidity games and has no real underpinning in economics or common sense.
There's a place where the rubber meets the road, where NEW DEBT added to the old debt in hopes of reinflating a bubble or blowing a new one in hopes of not paying the price of the prior mal investments and greed......you can run but you cant hide forever....we must prepare for what is inevitable....and the law of nature and gravity...this is NOT the time to remain complacent, IMHO
"Almost half of them, it turns out, do not feel rich enough despite their out-sized savings and nearly two-thirds fret over the chance that rising taxes might further erode their enviable nest eggs, according to a new survey.
Fidelity Investments, the Boston-based financial services company, polled U.S. households with assets to invest -- excluding workplace retirement accounts and real estate -- of at least $1 million.
Of the more than 1,000 millionaires who responded, 42 percent said they just do not feel all that well off.
Fidelity then asked the unsatisfied cohort of millionaires what it would take to make them feel better about their net worth. The answer: assets to invest of at least $7.5 million.
For comparison sake, the average U.S. household has a net worth -- including retirement assets and real estate holdings -- of just $86,000, according to the Federal Reserve.
Sixty-four percent of the millionaires who participated in the Fidelity survey said they were "extremely or very concerned" about the impact of potential tax changes on their investments -- and were talking with investment advisers to minimize the impact."
**FED meets tomorrow, no MIRACLE DIP BUYING today, pre FED bias IMHO.....this decline is not over IMHO as well
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Earthquakes, Tsunamis, nuke reactor meltdowns, Asian inflation, and Middle East clashes, unrest and potential oil delivery disruptions.....Euro Zone downgrades.....hey but Martin Armstrong just got released from prison.
ECRI still growth improving. Many aspects of growth in economy here are not visable, and the "experts" keep telling us don't worry until gas is $4.50 a gallon for signs of slowing consumer demand.
Not too many GAS SIPPERS on the road here in the U.S.........$65 FILL UPS are NOT making consumers feel flush in the pocket.
We haven't even started the summer drive explosion where prices peak out.
We have a recovery of sorts, even if it doesn't seem like it, but that recovery of sorts has NEVER been on sound footing....$4 gas is not going to help.
There are signs of weakness in the bull wall, but it is FAR from ready to crumble......IMHO the decline is not quite over based on the broad weakness and slack demand on the rebounds......there will probably come a price that will attract more buyers, that will also show in multiple 80% up volume days or 90% days.....that hasn't occured yet.
Let's face it, housing is not going to be part of this recovery, not for some time.....that does beg the question what is driving the recovery and is it sustainable......I have my doubts there.
Friday, March 11, 2011
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Higher pump prices will cause a pullback in some consumer spending. TXN, NFLX, FNSR, JDSU and several other high tech names dissapointing and being taken down, FNSR fell over 30%yesterday.
Chinese exports dissapointed
"Chinese February Trade Surplus Drops So Much It Becomes Deficit, Largest In 7 Years"
Wednesday, March 09, 2011
About 11.1 million households, or 23.1 percent of all mortgaged homes, were underwater in the October-December quarter, according to report released Tuesday by housing data firm CoreLogic. That's up from 22.5 percent, or 10.8 million households, in the July-September quarter.
The number of underwater mortgages had fallen in the previous three quarters. But that was mostly because more homes had fallen into foreclosure.
Underwater mortgages typically rise when home prices fall. Home prices in December hit their lowest point since the housing bust in 11 of 20 major U.S. metro areas. In a healthy housing market, about 5 percent of homeowners are underwater."
Tuesday, March 08, 2011
Monday, March 07, 2011
Institutional selling has surpassed buying, this has not happened in awhile......keep an open mind.....trend is currently in correction mode......any EASING of current problem areas like OIL and MIDDLe East tensions might help turn attention back onto stocks.
AGAIN, I think EASY MONEY has been made, but there is NO proof of a bear sighting....if and when I do I will post that.....other than risk assets, FED has made sure no other game in town cept sidelines.
How we got HERE? TOO MUCH DEBT.....inflated mortgages.....when bubbles burst it takes time for the deleveraging process.......which is now taking place.
BUT there is the rest of economy that did not inflate in a bubble, and my hope is there is hOPE!
OVER STAYING your welcome is what has hurt the FED policy in the past......OK, we have so far avoided total DISASTER.....we may not want a tightening and that coming just as we're trying to grow....but we also can't allow OIL to rise to $150....
If foreignors sell bonds to BUY STOCKS.....won't that put more pressure on interest rates and add to the stress? Because our GOVT is going to need to float a LOT more debt going forward
....low interest rates have help ease some of that pain....that may be changing
For now we have a bull cycle, and it pays to follow the trend. We should get a trend change signal when its time, and at least we may be close to a ST one.....but the flow of funds is strong equities with CB'S keeping the gas flowing.
WILL $105 plus OIL and inflationary signals cause CB'S to TIGHTEN? I had nice chat with buddy today and this tidbit came out....."the FED did what they needed to do to avert a Depression...which would you prefer INFLATION or DEFLATION?" that should be easy answer...inflation, but both can be destructive....can the FED and CB'S keep this fragile recovery from stalling and keep inflation from escallating?
Maybe sweet spot has gone, but my prayers are that we will SLOWLY continue to heal, and help those who need it......hey man I'm doing my best to keep open mind....and also try to present both sides.
Sunday, March 06, 2011
JULY 28 2006 !!
"Oil at $100-a-barrel may frighten anybody with a car or a fuel-intensive business, but analysts from Standard & Poors said Thursday that a price spike of this magnitude wouldn't send the U.S. economy into a recession.
S&P chief economist David Wyss said if crude-oil, now trading above $74 a barrel, were to climb an additional 33 percent it would slice about 1.5 percent off annualized economic growth. That would still leave the American financial engine moving forward."
I guess we shouldn;t worry about a slowdown at $104 either....
CCI is warning of potential topping. I was incorrect on initial break out about the gap left, you can see on a daily chart....for now it was left behind.
Let's see how this plays out