Thursday, March 31, 2011


HARRY DENT "HOUSING IS DEAD" Does anyone ask.....with the greatest efforts by the FED and the lowest rates in history, and all the gov't stimulus......housing is recording its worst statistics in the 50 years of keeping data.... And as Dent describes, there are many places including CHina that have housing bubbles which have not yet burst.....Chinese stock market has NOT made a new high since 2009 SMOKE AND MIRRORS HERE MY FRIENDS

.. D


ADJ MONETARY BASE LINK $500 BILLION in 3 months "unemployment claims FELL....." what they don't tell you is they FELL because the worthless data you got last week of 382,000 was REVISED UP to 394,000 !!!!!!!!!!!!!! so now it fell to 388,000 instead of RISING 6,000...this shit turns my stomach. The 4 week avg is over 390,000 claims a week...this is NOT consistant with a JOB GENERATING atmosphere. OIL at $105, no relief to consumer at the pumps or for heat.....sure let's switch to NAT GAS....WHAT do you think happens to the price of NAT GAS THEN? YES it will skyrocket and its a no win win ...NAT GAS is cheap because its not in the forefront...funny thing is, this winter PROPANE prices were THRU THE ROOF!....its a game of FUEL EFFICIENCY.....NOT SOURCE....a push for more clean deisel would solve most problems, it already gets 40-50 MPG ! better than any hybrid.....see VW Rabbit Diesel. WInd? Solar? ethanol?....let ANY of them stand on their own 2 feet without SUBSIDIES.... ITS ALL BS.....we're dumb but we're not stupid Look for 1332-1337 to turn this rally into dust.....IMHO it's on fumes D

Wednesday, March 30, 2011


Most are aware of the dwindling size of portions sold in the same size containers? like OJ and tuna, chips etc.....don't expect fanfare of anyone telling you your bag is half full not half empty? and don't expect this to find its way into inflation data.

Consumer Sentiment flagged in March and one of the main concerns is inflation of food and energy.....this could of course influence future purchases.

End of quarter gaming reaches a fever pitch today...1332 still stands as previous level to best.....I guess we don't need ROBUST employment and a healthy housing market to experience a vibrant economy....



I applied for EXXON gas card, just to keep my gasoline purchases on one card to track them better.......but I might not activate it (even though I dont run balances) 24.99% RATE......the CONSUMER who is using their CC's to maintain a lifestyle.....will end in tears.....NO advantage to little Joe in the FED ZIRP policies.... It is POPULAR belief that as long as the FED continues to EXPAND their balance sheet, stocks markets will rally


BEIJING (Reuters) – Dollar dominance is sowing the seeds of financial turmoil, and the solution is to promote new reserve currencies, a Chinese government economist said in a paper published on the eve of a G20 meeting about how to reform the global monetary system. Although not an official policy statement, the paper by Xu Hongcai, a department deputy director at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, offered a window onto the domestic pressures bearing on Beijing to move away from a dollar-centric global economy. The China Center, a top government think tank, has represented the Chinese government in organizing a forum on Thursday in Nanjing that will bring together finance ministers, central bankers and academics from the Group of 20 wealthy and developing economies.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011


I showed you how the FED balance sheet is the rally....there is NO refuting confidence has dropped SHARPLY....but this is already from a historically DEPRESSED level.....current perceptions registered a big fat 40? by now it should 100 reading came in under 64......this is MUCH lower than the worst reading after 911.

Housing came in at the worst reading in the history of the data going back over 50 years.....the ONE CONSTANT during this time is FED rates at 0%.....A JAW DROPPING surge in ADJ monetary base and FED balance sheet and the GAO forced to drop its mark to market accounting rule.......voila we have a recovery.

And there is one my friends, there is one......but not the kind justified by a 100% move in the stock's a bought and not paid for recovery and it can't stand on its own 2 feet or there would be a move to normalize operations here......wouldnt there be?


Monday, March 28, 2011


Employment and housing data MUST improve……..inflation preferred over deflation. Problems with getting parts overseas, makes companies rethink off shoring, manufacturing gets revived HERE! TAX LAWS MUST CHANGE. US CORPORATIONS (60 minute piece) ship jobs and profits overseas to avoid US taxes which are highest in the world….35% vs 12-20% elsewhere….costing 10’s of BILLIONS of tax revenue and countless 100’s of 1,000’s of jobs. TAX Policies are ALWAYS short sighted….higher taxes make demand go limp. Since this WONT happen, the recovery will remain NARROW in focus, even more so than 2003-2007. Market is inflated directly by growth in money supply, FED action…..not sure how they get us to more normal….I DO think it matters…. is there any possible smoothr real exit strategy? INFLATION MODERATES.......BANKS LOOSEN LENDING RESTRAINTS I take NO JOY in reading nor writing about a less than happy ending...I won't jump off any bridge....but I also will not see something that isn't is what it is and deal with it D


60 minutes


I'm not so sure about that....yields popping out above wedge......mountains of debt issued and yet to be...


Saturday, March 26, 2011


3rd lower high being made, forming could break above, but we have parameters for trade.

The stock market has had a nice run the Dow is up 5.2% and 600 points in just the last 7 trading days! but the avg up volume has ONLY been 63% over this time and by other measures this is a very suspect rally from a technical standpoint....SO FAR there has been good point gains but the up volume has yet to crack 90% and only once 80% during this had been preceded by 2 90% down volume days and expansion of volume during the selloff.

SLuggish demand seems to be meeting distribution.....and IMHO we are RIPE to resume downtrend in the ST UNLESS we get significant surge in buying demand.


Sorry, GOP: Tax revenue needs to go up

Sorry, GOP: Tax revenue needs to go up

" Here's one way to conceive of just how big the problem is.

If lawmakers wanted to permanently freeze the debt held by the public at the today's level -- 62% of GDP -- they would need to immediately cut spending by 35% or about $1.2 trillion, according to the Government Accountability Office. And those cuts would need to be permanent from hereon out.

How hard would that be?

Consider that in 2010, all of discretionary spending -- including defense -- totaled $1.35 trillion. In other words, to do deficit reduction all on the spending side means "you have to cut into the real meat," said Roberton Williams, senior fellow at the Tax Policy Center.

Consider, too, how much fun lawmakers are having right now trying to negotiate spending cuts for this year alone. Their working range: Between $10 billion and $61 billion."


Is there any question in your mind that in early 2009, QE1 and end to mark to market accounting was about only thing between the market and all out collapse?
Then with nasty 16% summer correction in 2010 QE2 was born and lookey what happened.
DO I wish for the alternative outcome? NO, but you can forstall comeupins for so long, and at some point MUST reconcile your books.
Added to otherwise misery is now inflation of our food an the housing market lays did other excursions into FED rate fixing and manipulations end?


ARDBEG WHISKEY 1990 Limited Edition (this is UK site) FIND SOME....PUT IT IN FREEZER, SERVE CHILLED...forget your troubles!! unbleepin amazing....lit my mouth and my ass up!!!


Friday, March 25, 2011


Using 25 point moves to keep NOISE DOWN..all have great weekend....maybe back Sat for post
Duratek...keep the your brother


Always someone else (saying goes) who is worse off (but true)….here is a HEROES attitude

"I never expected to have to live through anything like this," he said mournfully. Suzuki is one of Soma's luckier residents, but the tsunami washed away the shop where he sold fish and seaweed.

"My business is gone. I don't think I will ever be able to recover," said Suzuki, 59.

Still, he managed to find a bright side. "The one good thing is the way everyone is pulling together and helping each other. No one is stealing or looting," he said.

"It makes me feel proud to be Japanese."

I can attest, I was in japan (when we got 255 yen for $1) 25 years ago……..even the cab drivers wore white gloves….could go out at night almost anywhere, NEVER FEAR CRIME!!! Always polite….couteous, friendly (got as far as Kyota)…..this country…..cant always say same


Here's my worthless 2 cents worth.

Government would be FORCED to get smaller, tax less....spend less. NO LOBBY GROUPS allowed to create special interests.....or people who can be bought off.

NO DIVIDEND TAX BREAKS which let the UBER RICH (who have millions of shares) keep more money and the AVG dude could care less, they don't own enough stocks for this to matter...

LOWER TAXES AND DUES TOO ALL WORKING PEOPLE.....not the already disgusting filthy insiders who like a GE pay no taxes........FREE HEALTH CARE TO ALL US CITIZENS paid for by increased taxes on the UBER WEALTHY and LESS GOVT spending on WARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The current sysetms in place in our world in particular will not last many years down the a majority of citizens get tried of being hosed and sold out and SADDLED WITH THE INSIDERS BAD DEBTS for generations to come as they WAX RICH at OUR EXPENSE!

UBER WEALTHY PEOPLE (yes I am Republican) should be taxed out the maybe they only have 2 10,000 sq ft mansions.......MORE GOES BACK TO THE WORKING STIFF the form of LOWER TAXES for ALL making under $500,000 a year......but for those making 10's of can afford to and should pay much more than current, that can ONLY be done with a FLAT TAX....period.......the REAL consumers of the world paying less in taxes and getting FREE HEALTH CARE (as do Canadians) will be freed up to buy all the unsold homes, buy durable goods......revitalize the economy...let the PEOPLE CHOOSE WHERE THE MONEY GOES.....and do away with all the STUPID SUBSIDIES....if something can't stand on it's own then it shouldn't ETHANOL for stupid is that?

When you have a system that outsizes returns for a VERY FEW (dont lecture me on the 1% pay 90%.....) and the life they lead so doesn't look like the avg persons........the system needs an overhaul.

COMPANIES taxes should not be raised EXCEPT companies like GE who are allowed to shelter profits OVERSEAS....and nothing is done...wonder why Obama is so buddy up with Immelt?

FED RESERVE SYSTEM ABOLISHED....let rates be born of a FREE MARKET SYSTEM...the FED'S manipulating has gotten us booms, but they always are followed by bigger and BIGGER BUSTS!!!! and has cost the US $ 40% of its value since 2000.


BANKSTERS BAD DEBTS GET FOISTED ON THE PUBLIC (BANK BAILOUTS, FREDDIE MAC ETC) ??? nobody asked us........ or maybe they did, we said no, they did it anyways.

LAST time I looked, the worst financial crimes in history, the worst crisis is followed by ZERO PROSECUTIONS???

Last time I looked the housing market is at worst levels ever, savers get 0%, few jobs, food and energy are through the roof (but fed will say "inflation contained") but the stock market soars.....and that's where the 1% are saying THANK YOU!!

STOCK MARKET GAINS VS real policy and in the meantime the HOUSING MARKET HAS RECORDED ITS WORST DATA in the 50 years since it began there's progress.....well this is just a beginning point for discussion...last time I looked our govt was supposed to be FOR THE PEOPLE, BY THE PEOPLE......and we don't wage wars without Congressional debate and consent........we need change and we need it now..... FAILED POLICIES should not go rewarded...



The current rally off the recent lows has lacked typical sustainable rally moves and IMHO unless its characteristics change showing more buyer enthusiasm and destined to fail.

WHAT after all the "good" news recently will provide buyers more a reason to STEP IT UP? or WHAT would give reason for buyers to come in strong enough to break out above the 1325 and above levels?

Pray for QE3 like QE1 and QE2 have proven effective for the economy...for stocks....we know answer it's been the saviour from going back to the bear market....even I can appreciate that wisdom...



UP UP AND AWAY this measure of money supply has NEVER BEFORE in HISTORY seen this kind of move.....BEYOND INSANITY.....this was FIAT that never existed before this....where will it end? THE REAL insanity is the horse is not drinking.....

Read what you want, believe what you want, the stock market IS NOT the economy nor does it reflect the economy, if it did, it would be half its current price level, IMHO.

In the 50 years it has kept track of housing data, new home sales NEVER released data poorer than this weeks report and this is after 2 PLUS years of 0% ZIRP....all the incentives......2 PLUS years of supposed would expect SLOW CONSTANT rise in this data not a FALL TO NEW LOWS!!!

What then interests the stock market? there are ALL kinds of companies in it, so we know commodity based and energy based companies are flying. We know most banks mistate earnings because of suspension of mark to market accounting, because home values continue to drop....we know we have RECORD amount of Americans on gov't assistance.....there are many troubling CORE INFLATION really heats up.....

We know the unemployment data is cooked and does not reflect the actual situation....there is little real hiring going on...without HOUSING contributing to economy....we already see DURABLE GOODS peaking and now declining and there are a lot less people buying homes and and all that conncected action of things you would purchase, people you would hire is just not YOU tell me....what IS driving this economy?

IN A WORD IT IS THE FED and CB policy around the world....except some have begun to tighten.....some talk of cutting back.....that leaves the US CB'ers, our FED to goose the world economy...and in some SICK deveiant reaction the world is counting on QE3 and beyind like it will never end and this is a good thing, that theses FED policies lead to recovery and prosperity.

"Spend Our Way To Prosperity"

" In his State of the Union Address, President Obama spoke briefly about cutting the deficit but gave far more attention to ambitious new spending programs to revive the economy. He still hasn’t accepted a common sense notion most Americans understand: you can’t borrow and spend your way to prosperity. Even if deficits were reduced, every new dollar of government expenditure takes money for the public sector out of the private, for-profit economy. Spending for roads, bridges and other useful infrastructure--let alone "investment" in scams like high speed rail and solar power-- still means increased burdens on taxpayers and less money for business to expand and to create long-term jobs. The key question before the country is whether to continue growing government and imposing new burdens on the private economy, or reducing the cost of government and giving business the chance to breathe and grow."

This morning we get another GDP revision, but it really doesn't matter.....blowing BUBBLES is our main policy and until we demand different that's what it will be be....we will go from BOOM to BUST.....this time the BOOM is only felt by those involved in stocks......mainly the insiders.........majority of people have their lives invested in their HOMES, not in stocks......and I have proven how little effectiveness current policies have proven to improve that the meantime current policies are proving VERY DESTRUCTIVE and especially to those looking for interest income....NEVER A GOOD IDEA to have a unbalanced economy....

Investment in gold and energy has proven a wise strategy for now.....


Thursday, March 24, 2011


looking at this chart WHAT HAPPENS after durables PEAK and begin to decline? (especially after touching the 20% line) THEY GOURGED THE RECOVERY into a compact time frame...and it looks like its over. A drop below 0% would seal it for sure IMHO....but then we have the mkt TA as well...add in housing chart of worst data in the FIFTY YEARS since they began tabulating it......the banks want to pay dividends????? with what??????

Home values keep dropping, what does that do to underlying value of all those mortgages held???????????????????????? but they don't have to mark them to market value do they???

That is why I say SPX earnings is a doggone SHAM, BS...make believe, a lie....misleading....a do you change how some companies report profit and loss in midstream? you can mislead people.

We don't even have a wall of worry here, we're trying to climb over a TSUNAMI..... DO YOU believe companies are now hiring? DO YOU believe we have inflation under control?

The rally has gotten so narrow, so few participating, that on a major UP day like yesterday 53% of the volume was selling!

*foreclosure vote could rock thebanks**
"The big banks face fresh scrutiny of their handling of the mortgage mess – from their own boards, no less.

Shareholders at Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) could vote this spring to compel their audit committees to investigate the banks' mortgage and foreclosure practices, and report back by fall.

The votes will come despite much eye-rolling from the banks, which have tended to be less than forthcoming on the subject. Bank of America and Citi petitioned regulators to keep shareholders from voting on the proposal, which is sponsored by the New York City pension funds led by city comptroller John C. Liu. But the Securities and Exchange Commission ruled this month that the votes must go on."



But yesterdays gains came with down volume 53% of total up and down volume...........more signs of continued manipualtion so everythng appears OK when it really isn't.

WHY should the market care or react to news that Housing data fell to its lowest level EVER in the 50 YEARS since data was compiled...yeah BULLY!


Wednesday, March 23, 2011


IS it ever a good idea to hold a big position in ONE COMPANY? Lost half it's value.....this is a BIG SEMI PLAYER....I find this troubling.......for me LTBH has LONG since gone out the window....
DO you have OIL and metals in your protfolio? any physical gold and silver?


Is THIS a back test of broken dashed trend line? GOLDS BUSTING to new highs, OIL is above $105....the insanity of it all.....FED members saying "end of line to QE come June....." QE has been ONLY prop for this prop job bull market....

IS COPPER ROLLING OVER? *(see below updated housing data)

Also of interest to me is factthat NEMONT mining, one of most widely held miners is chart wise in BEAR MARKET and the HUI made its high MONTHS ago in 2010........with gold near all time highs and FEARS of inflation.....


"shares of LED maker Cree (CREE) are down $2.96, or 6%, at $46.04 in early trading after the company cut its fiscal Q3 revenue forecast on weaker-than-expected demand and weaker-than-expected pricing.

The warning comes two months after Cree reported Q2 results that missed its own projections because of an inventory correction in Asia. "
**watch $45.48 reaction lows
Duratek (semi's rolling over)




Secular changes towards DEBT? SECULAR changes towards STOCKS? SECULAR changes towards savings? FED? GOVT? ENERGY?



**UPDATED AM DATA New-Home Sales Plunged in February to Record Low- AP
Sales of new U.S. homes plunged in February to the fewest on records dating back nearly half a century, a dismal sign for an already-weak housing market.

LET me preview the 10 AM data due out today, after peakng in 2005
(stocks in 2007..YES a warning then!) we went from 1.4 MILLION per year to UDER 240,000 PLEASE let that sink in and the effect that IS having on our economy......we are having such a raucus recovery that we have RECORD unmbers on govt assistance...IMHO stocks are NOT done correcting

More uplifting news:

"The problem stems from the massive increase in jobless claims during the Great Recession. The surge drained state unemployment trust funds, forcing states to borrow from a federal fund to cover their 26 weeks of unemployment benefits.

Some 32 states now owe $45.7 billion to the fund, and could have to pay about $1.4 billion in interest this year. The burden will fall mainly on businesses, which will have to pay more in unemployment taxes." (



NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- A year after the passing of health reform, a new industry report revealed that consumers may be paying billions of dollars more in out-of-pocket health care expenses than was previously thought.

These "hidden" costs of health care -- like taking time off to care for elderly parents -- add up to $363 billion, according to a report from the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions, a research group.

6Email Print That amounts to $1,355 per consumer, on top of the $8,000 the government says people spend on doctor fees and hospital care.

"We're surprised that this number came in so high. It's significant," said Paul Keckley, executive director with the group.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011


AKRON, Ohio/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - The U.S. recovery is gaining traction, two top Federal Reserve officials said on Tuesday, though they differed on the risks of inflation in the U.S. economy.

Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto said she expects the U.S. recovery to continue at a moderate pace, with rising commodity and energy prices only temporarily putting pressure on broader consumer prices.

"The recovery seems to have established a firmer footing. I am seeing clearer signs of a virtuous cycle of growth," Pianalto said in a speech at the University of Akron.

Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, speaking in Frankfurt, Germany, said the U.S. recovery was gathering momentum and needs no further Fed support.

"The Fed has done enough, if not too much, and we should do no more. In my opinion no further accommodation is necessary after June," Fisher said.

If we were doing so bleeping good why are rates at ZERO STILL? DO THEY EVER MENTION THE DATA IN THE HOUSING MARKET?



ACtion is below 50 EMA


LAST made a high in April 2010 ! this is rolling over.


This will resolve shortly


CBO: Obama understates deficits by $2.3 trillion

Saudi's know how to buy off their people, offer jobs and money......

Currency intervention by the G-7 in order to "HELP JAPAN".....let's get this straight, the G-7 nations, together will attempt to manipulate currency market so the YEN DECLINES IN VALUE!

This will help the Japanese people and economy? how? by making everything they need for reconstruction MORE expensive by bringing down value of currency? they need MORE OF IT? Japan is already one of the MOST INDEBTED NATIONS ON EARTH.

From what I understand.......the real issue is the ZIRP Japanese CB policy and carry trade games that have attracted quite a sepculative crowd.....these would include BIG BANKS and FUNDS who have borrowed YEN (at 0%) or SOLD SHORT YEN...and bought other stuff with it...a NO BRAINER...only one thing can harm these "SPECULATORS"......if for some reason the YEN rises in value...when you are short betting on its demise and fall. here. If you are the IN get bailed out at expense of all others........when will the little guy investor wake up and figure out "ITS A RIGGED GAME".

Savers here get GORED by 0% on savings (they need to suppliment retirement) and at same time the value of the currency $ is slip sliding away.......stable currency policy? haa

SECTOR supposed to be SAVED and BENEFIT from ZIRP and other assinine FED policies?'s that doing?


Monday, March 21, 2011




"Therefore, when a U.S. president wages what might otherwise be considered a just war, if he has failed to secure a congressional declaration of war, he is waging an illegal war — illegal from the standpoint of our own legal and governmental system. And when the American people support any such war, no matter how just and right they believe it is, they are standing not only against their own principles and heritage, not only against their own system of government and laws, but also against the only barrier standing between them and the tyranny of their own government — the Constitution."

3 wars now? All 3 without FORMAL declaration of war and Congressional approval to wage is so sad to me, that the avg American lays asleep to the raping of the constitution and would otherwise just roll over and show the other cheek to be defiled? or even realize something unsavery is taking place?

It's all about the Benjamins...not the Franklins......or the founding fathers....or about the average American......look how we always get SOLD OUT....where is the GOV'T option in health care?

There is NONE! and we got an 11% 2011 increase and it just keeps going UP....the health care bill was a joke!



Japanese market closed overnight. OIL back to $104....weak $ ATT trying to takeover T Mobile....and it's Monday...what more do you need?

We will head right to 1290-1294 Resistance area.....


Saturday, March 19, 2011


Counter rally may now be in progress......retest of low could come after....



Depends on WHAT time frame. for me this mkt keeps boogey woogey if holds above 1200....dashed uptrend line. 1209 is 10% from highs....1200 would also violate an L rule with 2nd 10% plus correction during bull mkt...already had one of 16% that was only halted by QE2...would not have on own....but that's OK.




FUKUSHIMA, Japan – "Japan said radiation levels in spinach and milk from farms near its tsunami-crippled nuclear complex exceeded government safety limits, as emergency teams scrambled Saturday to restore power to the plant so it could cool dangerously overheated fuel.
The food was taken from farms as far as 65 miles (100 kilometers) from the stricken plants, suggesting a wide area of nuclear contamination.

While the radiation levels exceeded the limits allowed by the government, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano insisted the products "pose no immediate health risk."

SO which one is it? are they SAFE.....or does it exceed gov't saftey standards? They will lose CRED as fast as our FED !


Friday, March 18, 2011


Spotting patterns is a MUST to trade, observation is so important. Here the trend is down. We have the cross of MA'S, but more importantly I believe a CORRECTION is still in I'm lookg for short entry.
At 1288 I spoteed a double top (dashed line), also see the 50 EMA was at 1285 and trending down...that's where price stopped.
Price peaked out of the gate, these bastards ramped it up in pre mkt...and by 10 AM that was best price of ME...and by 2 PM that smelled like more distribution....and a rally was not going to ensure much.
I also had a low risk entry with a defined break there was 8 SPX points....if using E MINI @$50 a point, even 2 contracts yields $800.....real excercise here is can you define the trend, can you find the areas where pivotal action will occur be it support or resistance.
Those buying the night before, or holding the weekend are, IMHO crazy and out and out you see the days action at least at open is determined in the pits while you are sleeping....and the futures give those who wish to manipulate all the leverage they need.
Anyone that thinks CNBC is the place to get their info from.....probably never agrees with me....they turn my stomach.


"Hyperinflation Special Report (2011) March 15th, 2011

United States Nears Hyperinflationary Great Depression • Federal Reserve and Government Have Exploded the U.S. Fiscal Crisis, Shattered Global Confidence in the U.S. Dollar but Not Resolved Ongoing Economic and Systemic-Solvency Crises • High Risk of Ultimate Dollar Disaster Beginning to Unfold in Months Ahead, 2014 Remains the Outside Timing for Same • Contracting Money Supply Can Be Inflationary When Real Economy Contracts Even Faster • Major Economic Series Suggest Formal Depression in Place"

Lots of good stuff here, must be subscriber to get more details.



According to a more reliable Gallup poll...UNDEREMPLOYED closer to 20%


View of destruction of a currency. By devaluing the US $ the powers feel they can FOOL you into thinking there is prosperity....more NEW $'s issued (lesser value) to pay the debts of the OLDER $'s (you can see much higher value)....gains in stocks and other paper assets a joke.


ADJUSTED MONETARY BASE An almost $400 BILLION increase since January.....the most since 2009 crisis began.....and we're 2 years into recovery??????????? still at 0% interest rates? STILL playing games with currencies? STILL claiming there is no inflation?

From ZERO HEDGE "adjusted M base goes vertical"
*(from Feb 24th) now even MORE SO!!

"A succinct reminder from Mises Institute: "The Adjusted Monetary Base is the one monetary component completely under the control of the Federal Reserve." As we expected a month ago when predicting the end of the SLP program, look for this chart to surge to about $2.7 trillion as the combination of SLP unwind and another $500 billion in UST purchases adds another $600 billion to the BASE. The increase of $142 billion in the last two weeks is the 5th largest Adjusted Monetary Base expansion in history. The ongoing verticalization of this chart may result in some further acuteness of inflationary expectations."

Explanation for the YEN rising is the prospect of rebuilding the tsunami area will attract YEN...rising currencies are BAD for exports as prices rise with appreciation....funny how a US $ in the TOILET isn't making much difference for us.....except stoke cost of OIL imports and inflated economies raise prices of goods sent to US will get passed on to consumers at some point....if companies eating any of this, it should hurt their profits big time.

Yesterdays rally was strong enough on surface but volume fell significantly vs decline day....buying was more selective into big caps as small and mid cap stocks underperformed.

IMHO this is a SNAP BACK rally


Thursday, March 17, 2011

ALL IS SAVED "Japan stocks jump on G7 Pledge"

Only 1,600 points to get back to where it was...but they're JUMPING...hoorah for a cheaper Yen.....
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) --" Stocks in disaster-stricken Japan opened higher Friday after finance ministers from the Group of Seven nations announced a coordinated intervention in the currency market to prevent the yen from rising further.

The Nikkei 225 index, the most prominent measure of stocks traded in Tokyo, climbed 260 points, or 2.9%, shortly after the market opened. The Hang Seng gained 0.5%, while the Shanghai Composite was flat."

Hey nothing like some good old intervention to fix would this plan light a US $ rally?



You buy into rare earth crazy at $62? or REE at $17? don't be a BAG HOLDER!

I see all kinds of sectors with charts that are rolling over including RTH (retail holders) and SMH (semi's)




Every YING has its YANG, nothing goes up or down in straight line....but goes down faster.
"Emporer has no clothes" the FED POLICY of ZIRP at any cost has been debunked. HUGE inflation at PPI level is going to filter through everything we buy. Only a liar and a fool say we have no inflation....and yet we have DEFLATION''s where the majority of Americans store their wealth.....and it has not responded at all to all the stimulus and games.
Were it not a forced change from mark to market accounting, this turd would smell like one instead of a few day old rose....SPX earnings are a sham.
Sure the indexes canpull out of the nose dive, but why guess? the MA'S I use are beginning to bend down and merge....on a ST basis I use 20 and 50 periods on the daily......then 50 and 200. This can also be used on weekly....and you can see the action without commentary or opinion.
When the proper MA'S are rising or falling together after a cross up or down....THAT'S YOUR TREND...fighting it is want to pick a top or bottom go ahead.
YEN delevraging carry trade and oddly rising yen value put some giddy up in stocks and they work off oversold.....that is basically stocks 101....we go from one extreme to the other and back and forth.
If down trend continues to gain steam vs uptrend, once or before oversold gets worked off prices fall to next level seeking a price most will pay.....deem attractive.
I think after recent events in Middle East and Japan.....complacent behavior is suicidal


Revised last report from 397,000 to 401,000. 385,000 this report, NOT indicative of an economy gearing up to create jobs.

We had a 90% down volume day Wed, and now the expected bounce off oversold begins.......

CPI came in HOT at .5%, but you know the game, strip out the important stuff and no worries...

THE US $ is off 1% to 75.94 this about that FLIGHT TO QUALITY? now at lowest level of 2011..rally is based on U S $ in the crapper....


Wednesday, March 16, 2011

S&P takes out the LOWS for the year

Market is now oversold and DUE a bounce, there are rumors a new eletrical feed is being run into the NUKE plants in Japan to get water coolers working and maybe avoid total meltdown.
That the market would use to feed a counter trend rebound.
Beaking prior 2011 lows and on a close is BEARISH IMHO, but it will take time for this to show on the longer term MA' at MINIMUM short term bearish technical damage has been done......we leave it open for any possible outcome, but the ST has turned bearish.
The 20 and 50 EMA'S are turning over, rolling over.....if they both begin to will act as Resistance to any ensuing rally.
WE KNOW mostly the 2009 rally was built on.....FED actions....and FED actions are about all that has kept it going....feeding speculation instead of being a true FREE MKT system that reflects reality.
The hosuing data today was so specious, that only a fool could find something good in it. WE HAVE MADE LITTLE OR NO HEADWAY since 2009......but stocks don't reflect that REALITY because of the manipulation which is being used to help us feel better....trickle down economics.....sure hasn't sold many homes.....meanwhile savers getting raped....I am expecting rally soon.....I don;t think lows are in....I wish CNBC would have that asshole on that told everyone yesterday the "LOWS FOR THE YEAR ARE IN"....well he was proved wrong today.
Things are going on, OK, I get that......but they wouldn't at all without the secret kisses from the FED and they cannot inflation will always be downplayed like it doesn't exist....and any data they want can sound wonderful....cept maybe the housing data....housing is right where it was at 2009 LOWS, the worst it ever was.....STOCKS surely are not!


SPIKE to VIX 28 is highest on this move, fear is should be. Test of stab to 1261 but I am more interested in the price as a closing basis.....


575,000 expected only 479,000 was actual....huge miss and number is 2nd worst in history. LOW interest rates doing more HARM than obvious good....but they won't stop until gassed


Tuesday, March 15, 2011



Rally from lows of 2008 is at jeopardy.


IT came with market already ST oversold and FED MEETING DAY.....not the stuff of selloffs that hold.
Some on the HAIR CHANNEL were already talking it up as "the low for the year" and "BUY THE DIP" chorus was sang from room to room.....but it was Barry Manilow


IMHO we may have enterred the SELL THE RALLY MODE, even if just for the ST....bulls don't worry FED will save the day


Transports intra day made a new low for 2011, FED meets and that may hold the market where it is right it closes could be VERY important in thenear term at the least IMHO
Target LINE IN SAND after 1260 is 1200 (using my renko charting)


You can never grow too complacent in the stock mkt, some times you may not know what lies around the corner...a TSUNAMI and now NUKE CRISIS??? you are now witnessing the other side of investing...FEAR


Monday, March 14, 2011


Bloomberg stock futures show trouble brewing if accurate SPX-19 would be new low for move reinforcing current ST downtrend which I had been warning against.

Japans NIKK is off another 6.5% at 8,999 that's 13% in 2 trading may think our markets are just shrugging this off mostly, but consider the rally for the last 2 years has been supported by FED liquidity games and has no real underpinning in economics or common sense.

There's a place where the rubber meets the road, where NEW DEBT added to the old debt in hopes of reinflating a bubble or blowing a new one in hopes of not paying the price of the prior mal investments and can run but you cant hide forever....we must prepare for what is inevitable....and the law of nature and gravity...this is NOT the time to remain complacent, IMHO



CHICAGO (Reuters) - Pity America's poor millionaires.

"Almost half of them, it turns out, do not feel rich enough despite their out-sized savings and nearly two-thirds fret over the chance that rising taxes might further erode their enviable nest eggs, according to a new survey.

Fidelity Investments, the Boston-based financial services company, polled U.S. households with assets to invest -- excluding workplace retirement accounts and real estate -- of at least $1 million.

Of the more than 1,000 millionaires who responded, 42 percent said they just do not feel all that well off.

Fidelity then asked the unsatisfied cohort of millionaires what it would take to make them feel better about their net worth. The answer: assets to invest of at least $7.5 million.

For comparison sake, the average U.S. household has a net worth -- including retirement assets and real estate holdings -- of just $86,000, according to the Federal Reserve.

Sixty-four percent of the millionaires who participated in the Fidelity survey said they were "extremely or very concerned" about the impact of potential tax changes on their investments -- and were talking with investment advisers to minimize the impact."

**FED meets tomorrow, no MIRACLE DIP BUYING today, pre FED bias IMHO.....this decline is not over IMHO as well


Saturday, March 12, 2011

"All I Got was This Lousy T-Shirt"

I'm not all lathered up enough to peel off a one for the ages posting, so I'll give you what I got.

Earthquakes, Tsunamis, nuke reactor meltdowns, Asian inflation, and Middle East clashes, unrest and potential oil delivery disruptions.....Euro Zone downgrades.....hey but Martin Armstrong just got released from prison.

ECRI still growth improving. Many aspects of growth in economy here are not visable, and the "experts" keep telling us don't worry until gas is $4.50 a gallon for signs of slowing consumer demand.

Not too many GAS SIPPERS on the road here in the U.S.........$65 FILL UPS are NOT making consumers feel flush in the pocket.

We haven't even started the summer drive explosion where prices peak out.

We have a recovery of sorts, even if it doesn't seem like it, but that recovery of sorts has NEVER been on sound footing....$4 gas is not going to help.

There are signs of weakness in the bull wall, but it is FAR from ready to crumble......IMHO the decline is not quite over based on the broad weakness and slack demand on the rebounds......there will probably come a price that will attract more buyers, that will also show in multiple 80% up volume days or 90% days.....that hasn't occured yet.

Let's face it, housing is not going to be part of this recovery, not for some time.....that does beg the question what is driving the recovery and is it sustainable......I have my doubts there.



Primary uptrend not uprooted, but this weakness is porbably not over, unless we see ROBUST buying return. 3 90% down volume days in last 3 weeks w/o a 90% up day


Could BUST to upside if OIL continues rising. NATGAS seems to be in plentiful supply

Friday, March 11, 2011


todays action should it not recover on a close could give us important info on near term action. The narrow rally was ready to roll over.
After a 220 point route on the Dow Thursday....a weak Friday does not bode well for the ST and maybe the IT trend....we won't jump ahead, but we HAVE been on guard.
ALSO YESTERDAYS ACTION qualified as a 90% plus down volume day.....I showed on closing basis prices broke below previous range......maybe signalling traders sell signal. (who else showed action that way?)


Thursday, March 10, 2011

Back to 1294-1295


Initial claims jumped back to 397,000, concensus was for 380,000.$ strength based on Euro zone weakness. Trade deficit soared to $46B, $40B expected will cause a downward revivision to GDP.

Higher pump prices will cause a pullback in some consumer spending. TXN, NFLX, FNSR, JDSU and several other high tech names dissapointing and being taken down, FNSR fell over 30%yesterday.

Chinese exports dissapointed
"Chinese February Trade Surplus Drops So Much It Becomes Deficit, Largest In 7 Years"

Wednesday, March 09, 2011



"WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of Americans who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth rose at the end of last year, preventing many people from selling their homes in an already weak housing market.

About 11.1 million households, or 23.1 percent of all mortgaged homes, were underwater in the October-December quarter, according to report released Tuesday by housing data firm CoreLogic. That's up from 22.5 percent, or 10.8 million households, in the July-September quarter.

The number of underwater mortgages had fallen in the previous three quarters. But that was mostly because more homes had fallen into foreclosure.

Underwater mortgages typically rise when home prices fall. Home prices in December hit their lowest point since the housing bust in 11 of 20 major U.S. metro areas. In a healthy housing market, about 5 percent of homeowners are underwater."

Tuesday, March 08, 2011


NFLX, JDSU, CIEN and FNSR (30% !) all getting haricuts


1330 near upper corner of wedge, in trading range for now, hard to call this a correction with only 1344 as nearby continue to show reluctance to sell off even though recently buying as cooled.


Monday, March 07, 2011


WE do keep getting these miracle late day recoveries but the truth is there was serious selling today.....I don't think the current currection is over, and then we can determine if we have another buying opportunity.

Institutional selling has surpassed buying, this has not happened in awhile......keep an open mind.....trend is currently in correction mode......any EASING of current problem areas like OIL and MIDDLe East tensions might help turn attention back onto stocks.

AGAIN, I think EASY MONEY has been made, but there is NO proof of a bear sighting....if and when I do I will post that.....other than risk assets, FED has made sure no other game in town cept sidelines.

How we got HERE? TOO MUCH DEBT.....inflated mortgages.....when bubbles burst it takes time for the deleveraging process.......which is now taking place.

BUT there is the rest of economy that did not inflate in a bubble, and my hope is there is hOPE!

OVER STAYING your welcome is what has hurt the FED policy in the past......OK, we have so far avoided total DISASTER.....we may not want a tightening and that coming just as we're trying to grow....but we also can't allow OIL to rise to $150....

If foreignors sell bonds to BUY STOCKS.....won't that put more pressure on interest rates and add to the stress? Because our GOVT is going to need to float a LOT more debt going forward
....low interest rates have help ease some of that pain....that may be changing


*DO NOT MISS THAT VIDEO I POSTED, he is sharp guy, who else would get that much time on CNBC, he made the hapless hosts look even more pays to listen to a guy THAT sucecssful making money in the markets.

For now we have a bull cycle, and it pays to follow the trend. We should get a trend change signal when its time, and at least we may be close to a ST one.....but the flow of funds is strong equities with CB'S keeping the gas flowing.

WILL $105 plus OIL and inflationary signals cause CB'S to TIGHTEN? I had nice chat with buddy today and this tidbit came out....."the FED did what they needed to do to avert a Depression...which would you prefer INFLATION or DEFLATION?" that should be easy answer...inflation, but both can be destructive....can the FED and CB'S keep this fragile recovery from stalling and keep inflation from escallating?

Maybe sweet spot has gone, but my prayers are that we will SLOWLY continue to heal, and help those who need it......hey man I'm doing my best to keep open mind....and also try to present both sides.



The MACD appears to be rolling over, and with OIL at $105 and no QUICK settling of war and tensions in middle east, PLUS $100 OIL may be here for awhile and its going to take its toll on consumer spending and transportation costs.
The S&P 500 fell back to the lows of a few trading days ago and recovered from there, the closing price was right under breakdown from the wedge I posted few days ago at 1310.
We should know a lot more in the coming days.


Has the rise in stocks from 2009 been anticipating this flow of funds into the USA, and continued CB easing, which devalues currency and stokes speculation?

Interesting interview


Sunday, March 06, 2011


JULY 28 2006 !!
"Oil at $100-a-barrel may frighten anybody with a car or a fuel-intensive business, but analysts from Standard & Poors said Thursday that a price spike of this magnitude wouldn't send the U.S. economy into a recession.

S&P chief economist David Wyss said if crude-oil, now trading above $74 a barrel, were to climb an additional 33 percent it would slice about 1.5 percent off annualized economic growth. That would still leave the American financial engine moving forward."

I guess we shouldn;t worry about a slowdown at $104 either....




Considering the recent Middle East turmoil, it may be saying a lot about the HEALTH of the US $ as Reserve currency to witness it losing value and more money flowed into the EURO and gold/silver as safe havens.
There are a MOUNTAIN of Treasuries to be sold going forward.


1294 at bottom, 1332 double top ahead are key areas.....wedgie forming


12 year wedge pattern, you can see price is right there. Does it haveneough JUICE left to throw itself over and man it could run after that.

CCI is warning of potential topping. I was incorrect on initial break out about the gap left, you can see on a daily chart....for now it was left behind.

Let's see how this plays out