Wednesday, November 30, 2011


Almost a 500 point Dow advance, well that should convince everyone to get on board, the worst is over?
Price bounced and recaptured 1215, so this could springboard us back to 1292-1300.

When the day is done, the FED and CB'S may have goosed themarket and scorched the shorts once again, but atthe end of the day, words and CB action will not cannot do anymore than delay the painful correction.


Monday, November 28, 2011


4:54PM: EU officials are moving forward on a plan to increase fiscal discipline in the eurozone.

Can they get from the same old story? A WORLD OF DEBT FLOATING AROUND that needs to be financed somehow or defaulted, printing is only method currently used. ANY new story about "A DEAL" is met with "enthusiastic" stock purchases?

Consumers went on buying binge? Best Black friday ever? SHopping is great way to avoid reality. TA says we're in Bear MKT folks.....I am wary still.


Saturday, November 26, 2011

"Global Contagion" by DOUG NOLAND

"Increasingly, the marketplace is moving more in the direction of the bearish view of things, a viewpoint not long ago disregarded as misplaced and alarmist. I have worried that the market’s expectation for German and ECB capitulation has been poised for disappointment."

Friday, November 25, 2011


"MILAN (Reuters) - Italy paid a record 6.5 percent to borrow money over six months on Friday and its longer-term funding costs soared far above levels seen as sustainable for public finances, raising the pressure on Rome's new emergency government.
The auction yield on the six-month paper almost doubled compared to a month earlier, capping a week in which a German bond auction came close to failing and the leaders of Germany, France and Italy failed to make progress on crisis resolution measures.
Though Italy managed to raise the full planned amount of 10 billion euros, weakening demand and the highest borrowing costs since it joined the euro frightened investors, pushing Italian stocks lower and bond yields to record highs on the secondary market.
Yields on two-year BTP bonds soared to more than 8 percent in response, a euro lifetime high, despite reported purchases by the European Central Bank."


"This Summer's first U.S. debt downgrade came after Washington failed to fix the debt ceiling one way or the other. Three months later, and Washington just failed again.
Yet that first downgrade also saw 10-year Treasury yields fall to 3.0% as US debt prices rose. And today, with a second downgrade nailed on, that yield is already down below 2.0%.
What gives? Why is the financial world piling into US debt - driving its price higher - even as the security of that very debt risks being de-rated further below the magic risk-free AAA mark?"

Let it be NO secret that as our markets fell this week, our paper tiger currency rallied! EURO ZONE ugliness leads to that "safe haven" romp-a-room charge.

Now, has our credit worthiness improved? Didn't S&P warn that progress MUST be made or further downgrades loom? ISn't that why SUPER C was formed? SO they couldn't even agree and come up with ONE SINGLE IDEA? NOT ONE? Yes our yields continue to fall to Depression like levels and it appears anyway that there are tons of buyers for a SUB 2% 10 year yield??? and this doesn't worry anybody? THIS IS A DEFLATIONARY DEPRESSION LIKE SIGNAL

SO what to do? For now, just sitting in US $'s is making you money, on top of that US EQUITY prices are falling so if you sold and sit in cash you are effectively SHORTING the market with NO RISK, with HOPES to buy back shares of good companies or SP funds oe ETF'S at bargain prices....yeah just like the insiders do.....ONE have to HAVE CASH to be able to do that and not sit idly buy as a bagholder patsy to do so.

CALL YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR, call ANY advisor and ask them what to do....please post anyone telling you to run for the hills, raise cash. THEY WILL SAY SIT TIGHT....they always say STAY PUT.

It is in the nature of the investor to finally PANIC after mounting losses and flood the exit gates...usually near THE LOWS, like in 2009. Not TOO many wanted to touch stocks at height of crisis with bank failures warned of looming.

In a BULL MKT one must indeed RIDE THE EBB and FLOW TO EACH NEW HIGH or you WILL miss it, because often the greatest gains come in a single day or 2 of trading...NO ONE is that good to catch those. YES you have to stomach shake down draw downs as the markets in BULL MKTS WILL correct, but Technical Analysis can keep us IN, and WARN us if the trend is no longer our friend.

I have signalled BEAR MKT IS NOW UPON US, that is of course just my opinion, and I am just telling you what I am doing, you must get expert advice and in the end make your own mind up.....'do I ride this out, make portfolio changes, run for the hills...whatever"

My main point is, everyone must think for themselves, and you must have some way you can figure out your best options. CAN YOU find a Financial Advisor who can help you weather these storms? WHAT is YOUR time horizon, everybody's is different.


because they have single handedly ruined our currency and are responsible for the current LOW INTEREST RATE POLICY that SCREWS the saver and tries to BAIL OUT the investor....I mean INSIDER.

It feels like it to me, that these same policies, and world crisis is the culmination move of a multi decade move into Treasuries driving the yield down to Historical Depression Like lows......and that feels like the TITANIC to me.....quite a LARGE PORTION running in the same direction at a time where our need to finance great is the greatest...USUALLY that would mean HIGHER RATES (like eslewhere in world) to ATTRACT capital to buy the yields with it's inherrant below 2% it LOOKS like there is very little risk in holding them.

IF INDEED for now that is correct, does a below 2% yield warn of inflatoin? HARDLY

Be careful my friends, open your minds, seek the truth.



Thursday, November 24, 2011


I DO not agree with everything in above article, but thefacts are accurate and there is NO doubt in my mind, the unregulated FEDERAL RESERVE has done more harm then good. And those who have SAVED, are NOT GIVING THANKS to a FED POLICY that gives them SQUAT RETURNS...those who choose NOT to FEED THE COMPANY INSIDERS by buying their $0 based shares just for privledge of holding a piece of paper....have NOWHERE to go for a return on their savings...a CRIME! If you had $1 MILLION in savings you could barely pay your electric bill each month with your returns, SOMETHING is wrong!

Our political process where we end up with CAREER Politicians, instead of citizens serving the citizens best interests leads to abuse. During the last term Congress became 26% richer while Americans loss wealth and became more indebted! The fact that Congress is allowed to trade in INSIDE INFORMATION is a slap in theface to EVERY AMERICAN who would be slapped in jail like Martha Stewart was. Had a POLITICO heard what Martha had and sold, or even sold SHORT that drug company, they would be rolling in dough, not rolling dough in prison......WHERE IN ANY COMMON SENSE WORLD does that make any sense? YOU WILL NOT see any bill to change this come forward, why screw a good deal? BUT WHY do these blow hards who suck on the teet of special interest groups and sell us out in a minute get these perks?

SIT-INS and protests should not be at Wall Street, it should be at "CON"gress....which has LOWER ratings then our sad president.

The US $ has staged a sort of near death rally recently, mainly because Europe is also so screwed up that for at least the short time being, makes the flimsy $ look good.....still a "SAFE" haven?

$70 TRILLION in DEBT, and a years of GDP current funded debt, expect more years of $TRILLION PLUS debt to be added to it.
IN AFGHANISTAN and parts unknown for what purpose, fighting for OUR freedom may be costing us our financial freedom.

TAXES MUST RISE, OR GOVT SPENDING MUST BE CUT OR BOTH as we approach the ZENITH OF IGNORING OUR PROBLEMS.  "SUPER" Committee was formed to deal with this issue onbly to have, surprise surprise come up with ZERO SOLUTIONS OR RECCOMENDATIONS!!!

Each rally in stocks precedes with some story about how money will be pumpd into systems or another arranged bailout to bailout the bailout in Europe, only to be followed with another story of "Euro Zone still in trouble?......YOU CANNOT PRINT NOR SPEND YOUR WAY TO PROSPERITY

GOLD and SILVER should continue to shine in a world of synchronized printing, not withstanding periodic whipsaws and retraces.

But it seems clear to me, the BEAR MARKET IN STOCKS IS BACK, and that tells me to be OUT OF ALL STOCKS, and wait for a period like 2009 to nibble back in at MUCH LOWER PRICES, JMHO

What makes it possible for the US to continue with its policies? wreckless spending and propups? LOW LOW INTEREST RATES a 10 year below 3% !!!!....IMHO this sounds more like PANIC, CRISIS and DEFLATION than Expanding economy, inflation.

if you just listen to CNBS, you get a one sided sided views leave you open to be BLIND SIDED.

As we slid into OCT lows I warned of a BEAR MKT, then we saw a spirited rally, but I saw an eerie similarity to 2008 action. I don't know if I will be right again, I just know what I see....

And with all the historic VOLATILITY as registered by so many 90% volume days, this is more characteristic of bear market action, not bull markets.

YES IMHO it's time to pare back, or get out and be ready to buy at much lower prices. Could stocks rally in spite of everything? Investing is NEVER a certainty, you do your best to playthe odds and minimize risk. Many of the major markets have already broken to new lows like Japan, none of that is a good sign.


Wednesday, November 23, 2011

The American Dream

Post coming this weekend, why SPOIL it now? I've been trying my best to post a few things, and charts since beginning my new venture, running my own office furniture company.

I appreciate the loyal followers who still come to read what I have to say and peruse the charts.

I am VERY concerened going forward about being exposed to equities, there isn't much choice elsewise, I think we are back to return of principal not return ON principal.

Happy shitty as things can be, still take time to give thanks and appreciate what we DO have






Love the technology, love the forecasts, read all the opinions you want, THIS one ends up the only one that matters. I had warned months ago this stock had topped and don't get near it.


Monday, November 21, 2011


Moody's issued a warning on France's creditworthiness Monday, saying that rising interest rates on French government debt caused the difference in yield between French and German 10-year bonds to widen more than 200 basis points last week -- a record for the eurozone.

"Elevated borrowing costs persisting for an extended period would amplify the fiscal challenges the French government faces amid a deteriorating growth outlook, with negative credit implications," Moody's said in a statement.

And didn't Cramer say BUY? SPX Losing thwe 1215 support zone isn't a good sign, has the Santa rally come and gone? FUTURES DOWN -18


Friday, November 18, 2011



  • Consumer Sentiment sits at near lowest levels, 3 years into recovery. If you hacve a job , great, if you don't it is difficult.
    Around the world Governments are cutting spending in an austerity move to trim budgets, but not here? Gov't spending is keeping the economy at least running on 4 cylinders.

    LOW LOW interest rates are goosing certain segments of the economy, but taking toll on others, to be a mortgage banker now must feel good.

    WE NEED BALANCE, and tons of commercial space lays vacant....a truely jobless recovery


    Friday, November 11, 2011


    Read what you want, see what you can see. Another triple digit GAIN on EURO fears subsiding.....the market has become a JOKE.


    Thursday, November 10, 2011


    It seems now very common place that the markets move triple digit with 80 and 90% volumes up or down of total volume, this used to be a RARE occurrence.

    But we can say that this type of market behavior is more commonly found in BEAR MARKETS, know for their volatility.

    One day all is lost the GREEK TRAGEDY. Next day the debt gets "RING FENCED" and the bailout mania continues. The next day a referendum spoils th emood and markets sell off, only to come rightback with a triple digit gain when that same referendum is called off. All this DRAMA!!

    Yesterday the Dow lost almost 400 points! NO big deal right? It was just MORE DRAMA, coming this time from Italy....10 year yields SOARING to 7% !!!  (here we pay 2% !!)

    Today I see pre market futures plus 12 on the SPX, so I am guessing......just another day in the stock market, set your worries aside.

    9% unemployment here almost 3 years after the BOTTOM CAME, and recovery was hailed, but don't tell that to the many who have been lost from the unemployment roles and benefits.

    Mortgage companies are doing well, lots of ACTION buying and refi's with a 30 year mortgage UNDER 4% !! and maybe 1/2 point. This is great for anyone in the market for a home, maybe not so for those trying to make the payments.

    LOW LOW HISTORIC LOWS in Consumer Confidence, a boatload of indicators NOT resembling any kind of recovery based on historical data.

    A WORLDWIDE crisis is obviously STILL IN PLAY.....act accordingly.


    Sunday, November 06, 2011


    WASHINGTON (AP) -- The jobs crisis has left so many people out of work for so long that most of America's unemployed are no longer receiving unemployment benefits.
    Early last year, 75 percent were receiving checks. The figure is now 48 percent -- a shift that points to a growing crisis of long-term unemployment. Nearly one-third of America's 14 million unemployed have had no job for a year or more.

    RECOVERY "A return to a normal condition. " REALLY?


    Thursday, November 03, 2011


    "Already, Italy's borrowing rates have jumped to record levels at the mere thought of a Greek default. If Greece does default, investors would be prone to think that other countries might, too — and they know full well that Italy's economy is too big for Europe to bail out.
    French President Nicolas Sarkozy claimed it would never come to that.
    "We cannot accept the explosion of the euro, which would mean the explosion of Europe," he said in Cannes at a summit of leaders from the Group of 20 most powerful economies.
    But Europe's defenses are still weak. If it were aggressive in buying national bonds, the European Central Bank might be able for a time to keep a lid on those borrowing costs before they rose to the point that Italy's government would no longer be able to finance itself on capital markets.
    On the other hand, if the ECB were to shy away from such an approach then the risk of contagion would grow. The ECB made clear Thursday it is uncomfortable playing such a role.
    Greece appeared to step back from the brink on Thursday and canceled plans for a referendum. If its feuding politicians can agree to the plan launched in Brussels last week, they'll get the next batch of euro8 billion ($11 billion) in bailout money.
    But even then, the problems are far from over.
    True, the agreement would reduce Greece's debt — but not by much. In 2020, in the best scenario, Greece would have the same level of debt that it did three years ago."
    When the crisis began.


    "The FOMC issued its most recent statement today. To little surprise, the FOMC kept its target interest rate at 0.00% to 0.25%. It also stated that the Fed remains prepared to employ its tools to promote a stronger economic recovery and that it will continue to extend the average maturity of its securities holdings. In a question and answer session, Fed Chairman Bernanke indicated that under the right conditions the Fed's purchase of mortgage-backed securities would be considered.
    Just before Bernanke's press conference began the Fed's revised growth forecast was released. For fiscal 2011 the Fed expects economic growth to range from 1.6% to 1.7%, down from the range of 2.7% to 2.9%. For 2012, growth is expected the range from 2.5% to 2.9%, down from a range of 3.3% to 3.7%. Additionally, the Fed raised its long-run umemployment rate forecast to 5.6% from 5.4%."

    Wednesday, November 02, 2011

    Tuesday, November 01, 2011


    WE broke the lower range and it was NO big deal.....when we broke out above they all said "this is proof a big deal" but was it? One good throw over deserves another?

    You can read the headlines.......does it matter, one day we got a EURO deal, next day GREECE pops its ugly head again....can;t wait to see headline, "Greece was just messing with us.....we got DEAL!"