Saturday, December 31, 2011


Most will probably feel, not a bad year overall, the market volatility was very high, but then what was the harm, stocks basically FLAT! So maybe you will just sit tight and figure you've been through the worst? Where else is your money going to go?

The PROS own the market, the HFT's and large Hedge Funds, but the volume has been LIGHT and there is no room for a crowd to HIT THE EXITS.

By MOST measures, we are in a new Bear Market, but you won't hear single utterance of that reality on the boobus tubus. And certainly not on the "hair cafe' "

There is life in the economy, interest rates are historically low, but the current gov and FED policies are not doing a good job clearing out the prior imbalances, it is more just holding the ship upright and from sinking.

At what cost? There is no real effort to cut costs, or to raise new revenues. We can't continue with what we got in office, yet the wannabe's look sick too.

Dirty minded Chris Rock has a routine where he says he hates all politicians, he says why can't they just wait and read the bill being voted on or not to have already come to a conclusions because of one's party or leaning right or left, why not just think about the issue, let it bounce around inside your brain and come to the BEST DECISION.....good luck with that.

60 TIMES we raise the gov't debt ceiling, this is a joke.....just blow the stupid thing up, stop playing games. Does Europe right the ship? Right now, even our currency has rallied because we look less worse? We DO have the Reserve currency....imagine if we didn't.

Wars fought we didn't want and can't win against an inivisible foe not a country, 1,000's of lives lost, $Trillions spent.....when do we return to the Constitutional principals, and lose the Roman Empire ones?

Savers continue to get the shaft, with little else offered except the RISK MARKETS.....I don't like Musical Chairs with too many people playing and only a few chairs.

Have great New years, be safe, and happy for what we DO have.....and hope for some light ahead. Me personally....100% cash , maybe short some...I'm thinkng rocky 2012



"There is no doubt that de-risking/de-leveraging is taking its toll. It is an inhospitable environment for leverage. The MF Global fiasco proves that too little has changed here at home. And I take the drubbing unleashed upon the major U.S. financial stocks as confirmation of festering problems throughout U.S. and global finance. While the market ended little changed for the year, the extraordinary volatility connotes inherent instability. Yet even on this the final trading day of the year, much is left unclear, uncertain, unresolved and open to interpretation. Has impressive U.S. market and economic resiliency been signaling inherent strength and a stage set for a banner 2012? Or have complacency and the market’s inability to discount troubled waters ahead once again set the marketplace up for disappointment? Next week: “Issues 2012”

Friday, December 30, 2011


Spain revises up deficit and raises taxes

Spain's new government warned Friday that the country's budget deficit will be much higher than anticipated this year, as it unveiled a first batch of austerity measures that include surprise income and

Wednesday, December 28, 2011


Most analysts still looking for a SPX 10% rise in 2012.....


Tuesday, December 27, 2011


There have been 38 90% volume days since this summer, no week seems to go by without having a 90% up or down volume day go by. This is not typical of bull market action, bull markets are set up by exhausting the supply of sellers and the majority are very anxious to bid stocks up so they can induce holders to sell to them, not TOO much worry about a decline in price.

But we're here in the 1250 SPX range, you might say, what's to worry, all this up and down action hasn't cost me a dime....YET!

If you read Doug Noland's DEC 23rd piece at, from link I provided or on your own, you will have a better idea historically where we stand and what the current mechanics are providing to the economy.

In a nutshell, the way I see it, the voting mechanism and predictability of the stock market have eroded. The small share buyer has been replaced by the HFT and the many hedge funds that incorporate a sophisticated analogue to derive pennies of profits from 1,000's of trades a day based on spreads between 2 groups of stocks or any nuance they can find that when fed into a super computer, does all the rest. It is my belief this is all sanctioned and given rubber stamp approval by all overseeing agencies.

This is not beneficial to the individual investor nor the economy at large, HFT and those who have set up trading algorithms make up the BULK of the trading volume on any given day.

38 MANIC volume days in last 6 months is not a sign of an efficient market, and it is chasing away, and keeping away the small investor in droves. They in turn have NO reasonable vehicle to gain returns with near 0% interest rates and a 2% 10 year yield.

This policy, fostered by the Fedeeral Reserve to support economic growth is doing anything but that. YET they cling to this policy come hell or high water. STUBBORN men have gotten us into this mess, a few who think they are smarter than the combined wisdom of history and common sense.


Saturday, December 24, 2011


" However, and especially over the past year, financial power has subtly yet markedly shifted from traditional institutional fund managers, the crowded venture capitalist arena, and the scores of IPO dealmakers to "sophisticated" Wall Street financial players incorporating various forms of financial engineering (typically, variations of "spread trades"). While assets have shrunk and scores of equity mutual funds have been closed, 1,000 new hedge funds are said to have joined the fray as industry assets continue their historic Bubble ascent.”

There is NO room for John and Janet C Q Public. The game is RIGGED with VIOLENT ABNORMAL HISTORIC volatility with over 30 90% volume days since the summer!!! There probably were not 12 of these during the entire 1980-2000 greatest bull market!

Stocks reflecting the "VOTES" of millions of shares traded, bought and sold are now HFT trading schemes and large institutions using stocks as their Las Vegas Casino.

These new trends, all fostered by the SEC and anyone in charge, thinking this is all good, brings liquidity?....nothing has been done. ANy laws passed prove ineffective and aren't even enforced...BrainDEAD OXLEY is one...a joke.

Banks could actually make profits if they charged enough for loans and paid more to induce deposits, none of this is happening. SAVERS the sacrificial lambs, get near NOTHING FOR SAVINGS. AND one sure as hell....anyone holding long term bonds yielding below 2% are going to get an Historic HOSING! Bonds may be in the longest running bull market in history which began during Volkers rates shot up to rediculous levels like 16% and have been falling ever since that INFLATION was PURGED.

Now the FED and CB'ers have been able to pile on debt, keep rates LOW, and do ALL KINDS of things to keep economies humming all these years................few talk of the TRILLIONS around in Derivitives......but the last 10 years plus of fighting the corrective forces of the BEAR MARKETS and the WILL TO REVRT TO THE NORM AND CORRECT THE PREVIOUS EXCESSES....have been fought tooth and nail with everything they could bring......

And it brings us to today......this is not 1990, or 2000, or would seem to me we are reaching a backs to the wall, running out of financial gadgets, a DAY OF RECKONING is much closer than anytime over the last decade. 1.8% GDP 3 years into a "RECOVERY" in certainly anything but normal.

8.5% unemployment is anything but normal 3 years into "recovery". Bank Of America our largest bank has sunk under $5......penny stock territory.

Those over 50 thrown to curb, can't even get interview for a job......and many ask the question "has the American Dream been busted?"

Here we approach XMAS, and the New Years, and I'm just getting this out of my system......I can remain positive about what we can accomplish as individuals, but I have seen the faces of the REAL PEOPLE effected and there is a pain like never seen or felt before, a desperation of many of our fellow Americans.....and it feels helpless, like there is nothing we can do?

I say put a 3rd party in power or someone like RON PAUL. WE NEED REAL CHANGE, WE NEED ALMOST ANYONE but the jerks status QUO we've been getting.

BUSH a jerk and liar, abused his Conservative constituency, OBAMA a fraud and has done nothing. WASH is so crossed up and bloated with career politicians, lobbyists and special interests......they can't even pass a BILL to make it ILLEGAL for CONGRESS to TRADE STOCKS BASED ON INSIDER INFORMATION???!!^%&&$*#$(($((($##!!!

NOT one individual has had charges pressed against them for ANY CRIME committed during the WORST FINANCAIL CRISIS in history??? NOT ONE!!?????

The interent is important no doubt, but inmost cases products bought no taxes collected....has put countless retailers OUT OF BUSINESS!!

ON a personal note, I was kicked to the curb and am one of those baby boomers at 56 had no job and wondered what was next. SO I crerated my own company doing what I knew how to do for the past 30 years plus.

I have had some success, I have found people expanding, renovating.....needing office these difficult times! There is HOPE....we need real change...justice.....JOBS based on LOW TAXES on SMALL TO MEDIUM BUSINESS.....LOW TAXES FOR THOSE MAKING under $1M. Republicans who won't allow ANY rise in taxes to those making GOBS of funny is rediculous.

DO AWAY with the 15% DIVIDEND tax rate and double that, this MOSTLY only helps the INSIDERS who get paid with paper stocks, keep the rate at 15% for those NORMAL people not making more than $1M.

USE FLAT TAX maybe for those making under $250K. GOV'T option for health care.....the cost of health care is choking most workers....sapping their BUYING STRENGTH.

LET RATES RISE SOME....give investors a more balanced choice, SUPPORT THE US $!

GD bless, and may all my friends, family and readers enjoy health and happiness into the New Years.


Friday, December 23, 2011


Spending and incomes show weak November gains

American consumers spent at a lackluster rate in November as their incomes barely grew, suggesting that U.S. households may struggle to sustain their spending into 2012.Consumer spending rose just 0.1 ...

Thursday, December 22, 2011


"But a third estimate of gross domestic product showed that the economy is growing at a slower clip than many expected. Gross domestic product grew at an annualized pace of just 1.8% last quarter, slower than the 2% measured in the previous reading."

Jobs are being produced when the GDP isn't even above 2%?


Sunday, December 18, 2011


This time it's different? In what lifetime was a declining 200 day avergae bullish? FORGET what the boob tube is telling, forget what "experts" come on and tell you "how the US is NOT like Europe and our economy will continue to grow" tell that to the 4 MILLION baby boomers tossed to the curb.

Stats are for liars? Unemployment rate dropping is good new? what if it dropped because people dropped off the 99 week claims list and gave up looking?

Wages are not growing, they are stagnant, at the same time, the wealthier have gotten richer, OH I mean the Politicians...their wealth has grown by 26% during this time of financial part due to they play by different rules than the CITIZENS who eleected them! BASTARDS can trade on INSIDE INFO, MAKE BIG CASH and it is LEGAL???? WTF? yeah.....they are finding it hard to pass a bill to repeal this, funny how Mr FAIR can't find time to mention this repugnant piece of info.

When will the SAFE trade of fiding YIELD blow up in our faces.....people chasing 10 year yields near 1.8% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Does that sound like INFLATION FEAR MY FRIENDS?

Where else you gonne hear about this but here? It's just my humble opinion



Should you ignore a holding you own when the price falls out of a range? CAN you just trade on ideas?


Wednesday, December 14, 2011


Some would have you believe "it's different here", it's not as bad here, we have growth, slower than we want but our economy is growing. FED leaves policy stand pat....since 2009 0% rates...on and on.

If you are a small business you can't get to those LOW rates, refi, home perhaps....but prices in most areas still falling.

Chart above shows Chinese market has been falling since it topped in breaking to new multi year lows.....yet they have plenty of us $'s and so far haven't heard the words financial crisis one is bailing OUT the Chinese, but their market has been VERY WEAK.

Consumer spending has hit a 5 month low, after the Black friday bargains, shoppers pulled back and stores like BEST BUY have lowered their projections....folks, it's a tough environment.

Noone has answers, I don't expect any. There has been a smoke screen thrown over the smoke screen so even those who know a lot, can even get confused.

Growth will not accelerate into 2012, most think the market will rise maybe 5% into 2012, there is NO worry about a freefall.

ERUOPE stinks, so the $ is rallying killing commondities. GOLD may be in new Bear mkt, OIL seems pricey considering $ rally. IT FEELS LIKE DEFLATION TO ME.


Monday, December 12, 2011


Stocks: More European worries   EACH and EVERY RALLY was based on EURO PROGRESS? but then every following day we get headline like this?

There isn't enough paper they can print to cover over this mess. WE in a HEAP in trouble.


Wednesday, December 07, 2011


"Stocks Slip, Hope Dims for Europe Deal

U.S. stocks fell early Wednesday as differences between officials in Europe dimmed the prospects of a deal to save the euro at this week's summit of European leaders. "

a 4% gain comes from (but not exclusive) "DEAL for EUROPE".....when is a DEAL not a DEAL? only in our MUCH is made of nada!

Not a trading comment, cept longer term, we ARE in confirmed Bear mkt, accidents to DOWN early jan IMHO

Tuesday, December 06, 2011

"The Bloomberg article said the Fed had committed $7.77 trillion as of March 2009 to rescuing the financial system when all guarantees and lending limits were added up."

"While Bernanke did not mention Bloomberg or any other news organization by name, he said in a letter to lawmakers that the figure and other estimates of larger total amounts of lending, were "wildly inaccurate." On any given day, Fed credit from its emergency liquidity programs was never more than about $1.5 trillion, he said."

Monday, December 05, 2011


Does anyone realize we have had 30 90% volume days since just AUGUST? This is unprecedented market volatility and never seen in ANY BULL MKT!

4% MOVE DAY???? most of these also occur within a BEAR MARKET.  NIMBLE traders can navigate this and make money, the average investor cannot.

This all tells me the EVIDENCE as I see it are for LOWER, MUCH LOWER prices in the months ahead.

Fixes announced on a weekly basis from govt's and CB'ers, so were they in 2008.


Friday, December 02, 2011

Fiscal deficits hurt Fed's efforts on economy: Fisher

DALLAS (Reuters) - Federal deficits are complicating efforts by the Federal Reserve to help the economy, but using the central bank as a printing press to solve the problem "is not an option," a top Fed official said on Friday.



"Perpetual QE Without the Billboard "   by Jim Willie.

If you have any desire to understand the TRUTH of what is currently going on and BLOT OUT THE LIES AND DECEPTION, reaqd the entire article, try to digest what it is saying.


Yes that's you!

Take a spring, hold it down indefinately, winding it tighter and tighter....have an elephant sit on the spring, then another one on its lap.....then finally get up and let it go.....what happens?

IS THERE NO CONSEQUENCE FOR PRINTING FIAT CURRENCY to the heavens to try and cover up the debt crisis?

WHAT THEY, the FED RESERVE and our GIV and world CB'ers are doing is taking the debt caused by others, and hoisting it onto the nOT ONE ARREST AND PROSECUTION has been made, not ONE PERSON held responsible for the worst financial crisis in history...not ONE.

WHY? because they, the Insiders are protected. They the INSIDERS, like gov't officials don't play by the avg man rules, and can trade on INSIDE INFO, where the avg man would be jailed!

Great gig if you can get it.....surely the drop in unemployment from 9% to 8.6% is from a VIBRANT ECONOMY built on investment? not fluff and more debt piled onto heap? And not from a HUGE DROP OFF from those who NO LONGER receive benefits....ah the pesky truth...

The world is awash in fiat currency trying to paper over the crisis...10 year yields around the world are ALL way above the meager 2% seen here in the US even as the FED RESERVE has to print and buy the very bonds meant to float our debt US stocks.....? or


Thursday, December 01, 2011


FORTUNE -- European leaders are watching the Band-Aids they stuck on the eurozone's gushing wound of debt start to peel off. The largest attempted fix, the 440 billion euro European Financial Stability Facility, finally fell off last night, after the fund announced that it would not be able to lever up to a level that could actually bring stability to the eurozone.

Stocks soared yesterday on CB/FED policy statemements. DONT BUY STOCKS based on one day moves or make money in this market you need a crystal ball!

MM's want to LOOK good, so they dump their losers and pile into gainers to look better to shareholders, the end of year reshuffling usually brings gains in DEC.