Saturday, March 31, 2012


 Avg length of bull mkt 39 months. Aapl.skews earnings for naz and spx. Uphill battle to expand profits with rising costs to do biz. Have we already reached peak profits? Many lured into "hot stocks" as more and more breakdown .....trap being set, just not sure if new spx high reachable. For me that's near top of long term channel near 1550 I think.....if Obama elected because of putrid republican candidates and hot stock mkt, Bush cuts will die, divie stocks will lose luster....rates should rise..... My thinking for those who just hold, or have been waiting for the dip, if new new Bull, by all means grab horns and ride. If latter stages of 2009 Bull, think exit strat


Wednesday, March 28, 2012


SInce the "RECOVERY" began in 2009 the GDP has averaged 2-2.5% per qtr. That is the weakest economic recover from any recession on record....and maybe only one where the job participation rate has continued to decline.

Recent durable goods orders were weakest in 20 months. VIX stands near 15...numb to it all.

CHINA is coming down hard....exports are down 10% YR/YR....commodities took a hit today....China has stockpiled all kinds of stuff.......overbuilt manufacturing, gov't trying to stimulate consumer demand.

If there is job growth, employment costs are rising, productivity falling...with a WEAK ASS I the only one that thinks earnings may have PEAKED this cycle?


Tuesday, March 27, 2012

NEW YORK (AP) -- Consumers' confidence in the U.S. economy dropped in March amid higher gas prices, says a private research group. The decline comes after confidence rose to the highest level in a year during the previous month.
The Conference Board said Tuesday that its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 70.2, down from a revised 71.6 in February. Economists surveyed by FactSet expected a reading of 70.
Consumer confidence has made a recovery since it fell to an all-time low of 25.3 in February 2009. But the March reading is below the 90 reading that indicates a healthy economy. The index hasn't been near 90 since December 2007.
Economists watch consumer confidence closely because Americans' spending on things from clothing to health care accounts for about 70 percent of the nation's economic activity.


And for stock prices maybe no top yet, but it could be closer than most think. We have worldwide Central Bank intervention, still home prices fall BUT gas prices rise along with anything associated with energy use.



Home Prices Hit a 10-Year Low
The housing market started off the new year with a thud. Home prices dropped for the fifth consecutive month in January, reaching their lowest point since the end of 2002.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012



"General Mills has said commodity costs have increased in the 10 percent to 11 percent range in fiscal 2012 due to higher prices for ingredients like grain."

Monday, March 19, 2012


Worth watching, could be temporary



Warning of pending short term top, has been closely related to price for some time.

I feel the speculative fever among AVG investors is perking up, fear index is being buried and many of the players feel momo is easy to find and ride.

Even as a more challenging earnings season approaches.


"SURPRISE" JUMP IN YIELDS?  Credit where credit is due it must be from "signs of economic recovery"

"Investors will be closely watching for another rise in interest rates when trading resumes on Monday, after the bond market’s sharpest move in nearly six months caught some traders by surprise last week.

Despite the sudden swing higher, most Wall Street strategists are playing down the danger of a surge in interest rates, which have been historically low because of demand for bonds from both the Federal Reserve and private investors wary of all but the safest assets.

The sell-off last week was caused by increasing signs that the economy might finally be gaining steam, lifting the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds to 2.31 percent on Friday, from 2.04 percent a week earlier. That was the biggest move in bond yields, which move inversely to bond prices, since October, when rates briefly topped 2.4 percent.

“It clearly caught everyone’s attention,” said Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist for Northern Trust in Chicago. “When something moves like this, by definition it’s a surprise.”

More data confirming that the economy is gaining momentum could come later this week. In addition to data expected on Tuesday and Wednesday on housing starts and existing home sales, the Commerce Department will disclose the latest figures for sales of new homes on Friday. And on Thursday, the Conference Board will announce its index of leading economic indicators for February. "

Saturday, March 17, 2012


LOOK at my beautiful 2009 bottom signal. *click to enlarge



click to enlarge


The Fed is "turning the faucet, and nothing's coming out," says William Ford, a former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. "I don't see any pluses on the plus side of the ledger ... But they're ignoring the strong negative effect that they're having. They're killing savers. Retirees are earning nothing on their life savings."

Read more:

POINT IS, we don't know where that point of no return is...for stocks. WHY would they quit this insane BS now..."in for penny, in for pound"....."in for a ton".....there is no turning back....even if its not working....because they have no other plan.....

Friday, March 16, 2012


Bill Gross:

"..Under this plan, the Fed sold short-term debt and purchased long-term bonds in an effort to keep longer-term interest rates lower. At its meeting earlier this week, the Fed indicated that it didn't plan to extend the operation. "Yields have risen based upon the possibility that the Fed simply stops buying long-term bonds," he said. "If they do that, the question becomes, who is left?"


There has been a steady decline since its recovery from 2009 bottom.This is only one measure of activity but it doesn't paint a picture of recovery in demand for raw materials



Wednesday, March 14, 2012


IMHO, we have extensive "broadening top" pattern here and there is good chance we top in the zone I circled as we enter the 4th year of this bull market.

I also do not think we are in a new LONG TERM BULL, a secular move as we have only printed our way out, piled new debt on the old and with 0% rates there is little to compete with stocks.

A falling VIX pattern leaves a big selloff off the table for now. In the past we have ended bull markets with a single digit monthly VIX print, so below 15 is not unusual.

As a trader if you let four fundamental views cloud the market action and FED back drop, you will let opportunities pass you by. However, NOW is not the time to get aggressive long exposure IMHO, even if more upside is coming, because it will be the last 10% to the the top that you don't want to chase.

I think the FED and Central Banks can change market direction, but if all you do is hide the problems, try to PRINT YOUR WAY TO PROSPERITY, that will not unltimately work.


Saturday, March 10, 2012


“By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.” Do the Keynesians ever deeply, seriously contemplate perhaps Keynes’ greatest - and certainly most pertinent - monetary insight?

Wednesday, March 07, 2012


Worth considering what he has to say.....have we been building up to the MOTHER OF ALL BUBBLES? the gov't finance bubble.....thar she will blow as they all do with dire results.

Record amounts of money printing to avoid deflation and the consequences of malinvestments are harmful policies....and still now, they fight the correction tooth and claw, to preserve their supremecy and control


Tuesday, March 06, 2012


The vix has broken above 20 and a multi month downtrend, this correction more than likely has a bit more to run reaching highlighted minor support area. Today was the furst 90% (down) volume day of the year....this tells me the decline is going to muster some strength...a likely rebound attempt should follow for a few days before the sellers reload

Next potential targets are the rising 50 and flat line 200 below that, all would be normal targets and not upset the bullish apple cart.

But I continue to hear the same chants from my TV, "the avg US investors is under invested in US equities, this decline offers a grat chance to get in".....a few spx points from recent top looks like great entry?

Greece finds its way back into the weakens, US $ strenghtens, OIL falls, gold falls....a pattern here.

Forced to play risk for returns, dividend plays are touted daily......that's alal well and good unless the DIVIDEND tax cut gets the heave ho like it might.


Saturday, March 03, 2012


"The president and CEO of the world-renowned Broadmoor resort said Thursday he’s moving forward with a plan to assemble a group of local executives to help the city deal with its financial problems now that the City Council has formally accepted his offer."

Read more:


ECB launched another round $800B now reaching $1.3 TRILLION in it's version of the FED QE. IMHO there is good chance this along with continued rising balance sheets of the FED and continued 0% rate policy, that markets have a back stop, emboldening risk takers. There have been NO 90% volume days in 2012 as yet, after an historic period of oodles of them.

Since 2005 ECB and FED balance sheets have ballooned to over $6 TRILLION! This money has to go somewhere, the somewhere is into risk markets, commodities, $ carry trades, Bond purchases. The current environment errs on the side of the BULLS, but down the road (I know you're sick of hearing it) there will be HELL TO PAY for all this historic intervention which is causing awesome imbalances of its own. Be on the WRONG song of the trade and get buried.....the BEARS have been obliterated....too early and right equals wrong.

Calls for $1,000 AAPL stock with coming intro of APPLE TV and dominance of other products bring back the halcyon days of the tech bubble. YELP! stock with no earnings is instantly valued at $1B. Internet companies with no or little earnings doesn't seem to bother speculators one bit.

CHINKS in the armor would be LOW VOLUME, rates creeping above 2% on the US 10 year and gaining a foothold above that target. My contacts told me comments from Bernanke last week cause mortgage rates to tick up by almost 1/2%.

A flood out of Risk ON trade would flow money to? Stocks and out of ? Bonds where record amounts continued to reside and flow, even after a double in stock market!

OIL surged to $110 and now gas prices are HIGHEST EVER this time of year with Spring and Summer driving season ahead of us. GOLD got pounded $90 in just one trading day....volatility may have evaporated in the stock market but it is appearing in other areas.

My guess is the recent surge of intervention by ECB with $800 B in its LTRO scheme may do same there as what QE did here....why wouldn't it?

Upside surprise here in the US with a revised 3% GDP number shows our economy has recovered to some extent, it appears that jobs ARE being created, maybe not fast enough, maybe transitory, but jobs are being created.

But higher energy costs are hurting Consumers, and do filter down into economy as everything either uses petroleum or is shipped to market.

That worry down the line happens to be a big one, a piercing of the long running BOND BULL and Government Finance gambit, does the INFLATION GENIE get out of thebottle, and how many RISK PLAYERS would be flattened should certian trends they are long or short reverse while they inject record levels of LEVERAGE into system?


Friday, March 02, 2012


YELP! makes it's market debut today, offered $12-$14. Pops to $26 and settles at $24.75.

ONLY 13% of the company was offered, so todays price values YELP at near $1 Billion. $97 Million in sales, no profit but lots of promises.


Thursday, March 01, 2012


33% of Home "owners" are UNDER WATER in their mortgage. 22% of all sales were foreclosures, down from 26% last year....1% is NORMAL! 11 MILLION homes are worth LESS than they owe.

0% FED rate is KILLING savers, retired, fixed in come. 0% rate is hurting the value of the US $, a LOWER US $ DIRECTLY effects the price of OIL, and other commodities.

When Obama was asked why OIL and GAS prices were so high he said the tensions in Middle East and "recovering economy" were to blame.....NO mention of inflationary FED and ECB rate policies...yeah let's just tax the rich.....that means you!