. Traders seems to have jumped
on the other side, and haven't let up. Stocks are rebounding but APPL isn't,
not good sign.
The chart only shows you a
possible set up...it COULD go down and test that price level and hold...but if
it breaks that line....$420 minimum..closer to $380. Stock could be $1500 in 5
years, this is just current setup.
There is bearish death cross in
play, trend has turned bearish on APPL, $350-420 here we come.
NOTICE how the blue line (50
SMA) hasn't crossed the red line (200 SMA) since 2009!!
"The typical new vehicle is now more expensive than ever, averaging $30,500 in 2012, according to TrueCar.com data, and heading up again as makers curb the incentives that helped make their products more affordable during the recession when they were desperate for sales. According to the 2013 Car Affordability Study by Interest.com, only in Washington could the typical household swing the payments, the median income there running $86,680 a year. At the other extreme, Tampa, Fla., was at the bottom of the 25 large cities included in the study, with a median household income of $43,832. The study looked at a variety of household expenses, such as food and housing, and when it comes to purchasing a new vehicle, it considered more than just the basic purchase price, down payment and monthly note, factoring in such essentials as taxes and insurance."
"I am somewhat concerned that our economy, for better or for worse, may be heading down the path where it relies on artificially low rates," Zuchhi says, adding that he thinks it's going to be "very very difficult for the Fed to work its way out of it balance sheet without causing some serious problems."
As he sees it, the front line in this battle is not the bond market or interest rates, it's currency."The dollar is, in fact, the whole thing," Zucchi says, adding that he "thinks Bernanke probably goes to sleep every night thinking about if he is going to wake up with the same dollar that he had today, and that's his big worry."
As much as Bernanke has commented that the problem is manageable, Zucchi is unconvinced.
"Debt bubbles ultimately end, in fiat currencies, when the trust that outside investors have evaporates." It is not only something that has happened before, it is also the kind of crisis that tends to happen rather quickly when it does.
The saved us in 2009 from a 1930's style Depression, saved the banking system and jolted the stock market off the canvas and perhaps to NEW ALL TIME HIGHS.
It put a bottom in the housing market and has allowed many to refinance at MUCH LOWER RATES, slowing down the dominoes of foreclosures. STILL, as many as 25% of all homeowners are still under water, owing more than they paid. Taking out home equity loans was one of the underpinnings of consumer spending and fueling our economy until the bubble burst.
Before 2009, there were options for investors, especially those near or in retirement to get a safe return on their money through Bonds, money market funds, savings in general. The landscape has changed dramatically, and if you didn't play the REFLATION GAME, you were left at best running in place at near 0% returns on anything lock solid safe.
The FED targeted stocks for price appreciation, can one really blame them faced with financial annihilation?
Now it's 2013, still 5 years later Fed Funds rate is at effectively 0%, savings return.....the principal, not much else. The Fed has been buying up MBS and Treasuries at a monthly $85B clip, take this away and the cookies crumble. There is a HUGE GULF disconnect in stocks and the fundamentals.
Yes, it could have been worse so it seems. but have we just kicked the can down the road, and if we come to that financial fork in road again, what more can the FED DO? It's more of the same QE strategy has been returning less and less. if you hadn't noticed, last years GDP was barely 1.5%,
and last qtr was just barely, but was negative. Unemployemnt is still near 8%, and gas prices are at record high this time of year, avg price $4 a gallon. Wages are stagnant, Americans are just keeping up wth rising costs, not getting ahead, not saving....not spending like they used to. COnsumer Sentiment is NOWHERE near its normal levels, and that along with most of the data are at historical lows for a recovery.
Now the Gov't is forced to some level of austerity, at same time trying to raise more revenue. Businesses are reluctant to add employees, health care costs rising.
I don't know how this will turn out, but I feel like the Bear market has been fought tooth and claw, and maybe the piper in the end will be paid in a lesser amount due to CB'er actions.
OR, on top of failing policies that won't reignite a BULL MKT ECONOMY vs just a BULL MKT in stocks, the gas will have to come off the pedal, and where will the eventual correction take us? i think a lot lower, somewhere below SPX 800, though I am not sure if any NEW low will be seen in our lifetime.
There is one powerful formation still IN PLAY, the bearish megaphone pattern that began in 2000, top is near SPX 1600.....that is an area, should we muddle up there will be exciting to see how that plays out.
I've always felt, you cannot print yourself to prosperity, you can forstall certain events....but maybe not avoid them altogether
"We cannot grow the nation's economy until consumers consume," said NRF chief executive officer Matthew Shay in a statement."still not consuming like there is no tomorrow?????
Stock rally makes the already wealthy feel more so, but the avg American is not so influenced by that overt manipulation.
FORTUNE – U.S. stocks have reached new highs, but most Americans probably don't feel any wealthier. That's because the prices of our homes have a bigger influence over how rich we feel and, therefore, how much we're willing to spend, suggests a recent study by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Today was a 90% down volume day, this coming just 1 day after the 1525 HURDLE was clipped. Coming so soon after that "monumental" achievment, that was looking like a LOW VOLUME throw over a that move is now in question and rebuked.
That doesn't mean higher prices wont come later after some sort of correction. Remember IMHO stock prices are now far removed from any fundamental value, so when you buy I think you buy with HOPE prices go higher....for no good reason
Ponder this. Are the moves made by Draghi in Europe going to create similar market performance that we have seen here in the US from FED actions that began late in 2008? Will 2013 be another sharp UP year for stocks in general? Are we enterring an era of another great long term BULL?
Japanese authorities were able to create a 20% 4 month decline in their currency, Soros said he made about $1B on this bet, which may have included a long Japanese stocks trade.
The EURO made a similar move but with a 20% increase in value.
Historic LOW interest rates in this country allow the US to continue floating $Trillion deficits year after year and do not put ANY pressure on our Gov't to live within its means.
0% savings accounts leave the small investor with NO PLACE LEF TO HIDE or gain returns, so they must, and have been flocking BACK TO EQUITIES.
In a world of supply and demand, this pretty much rules all markets......so as we go forward, we will do our best to keep that in mind and front and center. The days of fundamentals effecting the markets are destroyed with historic intervention and manipulation.
In a world that was finanacially nearly destroyed by the banking crisis, real estate bubble popping........NOT ONE SINGLE PERSON has been brought to justice....
Same moon shot last year this time.....not a coincidence. Remember when $20,000 a year was considered pretty good pay? Now it's barely above poverty....thank the FED Reserve for destroying our currency.
"Insiders have been pulling out of stocks just as small investors are
Selling by corporate executives has surged recently as the Dow Jones
Industrial Average (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI) hit 14,000 and retail
investors flooded into stocks. The amount of insider selling has usually
preceded market selloffs.
"In almost perfect coordination with an equity market that was rushing
toward new all-time highs, insider sentiment has weakened sharply - falling to
its lowest level since late March 2012," wrote David Coleman of the
Vickers Weekly Insider report, one of the longest researchers of executive
buying and selling on Wall Street. "Insiders are waving the cautionary
flag in an increasingly aggressive manner."
There have been more than nine insider sales for every one buy over the past
week among NYSE stocks, according to Vickers. The last time executives sold
their company's stock this aggressively was in early 2012, just before the
S&P 500 (^GSPC) went on
to correct by 10 percent to its low for the year.
"Insiders know more than the vast majority of market
participants," said Enis Taner, global macro editor for RiskReversal.com.
"And they're usually right over a long period of time."
President Barack Obama, having missed the
statutory deadline for submitting his budget to Congress, is proposing instead
that Congress pass a short-term plan
to delay across-the-board spending cuts due to take effect March
I would like
toread something that richardfavre wrote about a month ago.payroll's lag population growthfor all but one more in 2012.including the january censusadjustment, jobs trailpopulation growth by 1.9million.and that's in 2012.welcome risk
RECORD STOCK BUYING BINGE
Investors didn't just put aside their aversion to stocks in January: They
tossed it out the window.
Investors flooded traditional stock funds and exchange-traded stock funds
with a record $77.4 billion in January, according to TrimTabs.com, which tracks
flows in and out of the stock market. January's inflow was $23.7 billion higher than
the previous record, set in February 2000.
"That's the lens through which I'm looking at some
fascinating statistics from TrimTabs Investment Research. Last month, TrimTabs
says, retail investors put a record $39.3
billion into U.S. mutual funds and exchange traded funds.
The previous one-month record, you'll be glad to know,
was $34.6 billion, set in February of 2000. That was at the height of the tech-telecom stock bubble,
which began to burst the following month"
Here's ONE SIMPLE question that cannot have an answer from OBAMA ADM or FEDERAL RESERVE enslaving MILLIONS of middle class Americans, and bringing the GULF between POOR and the 1% to Historic levels.
WAIT, wasn't this Administration supposed to help those MOST in need? WTF????
HOW CAN people getting FOOD STAMPS be at an ALL TIME HIGH as the unemployment rate comes down? AS the labor participation rate as I have shown is at near historic lows?
There is but ONE aim to current policies, and be damned or hell and high water, as the very FEW who sit on the board of Federal Resrerve vote to keep interest rates at historic lows....benefiting the growth of gov't spending, and the top 1%.
No, let Obama sit on his thrown, rubbing his septor, and declaring he is the President of the people, and at the same time allows more and more freedoms to be stolen from the people?
And now, without another vehicle to get returns, the masses are back in a big way. A market with shorts decimated who won't need to cover to slow decline down, a market with a all in mentality, a market with TRILLIONS of NEWLY PRINTED FED FIAT being funneled into the assets to make things look like new again.
WHat we see is PROOF that each bull mkt ends with a bear, and fighting it we get money priniting and historic low rates and we get? A resucitation of stocks, but where are the jobs? SInce topping in 2000, the labor participation rate continmues to fall, explain that? (people give up!)
You see, no one will ask until a crisis comes again, how did we get here? WHAT will be the end byline for a market that misprices risk? 5 years at 0%, TRILLIONS of new dollars to take the place of the old ones that got fucked over...it's a miracle hon.
Oh almost forgot to add, when the MUSIC stops, there have been FEW pullbacks to act as support along the way.....when she blows, the roof will come off and it will get very dark and ugly as people try to cash out. You have to know when to BUY, and you also have to know when enough is enough and take your chips off the able.....they will NOT RING A BELL.
Now more than ever I feel the need to offer caution and warning, I am in a tiny minority amid all the loud voices screaming its all a buy man buy....this is not a 100% science...I just call it like I see it, right or wrong...
I'm all for manipulation if it leads us to
the end game, growth. ALL we mostly have is growth of stock prices. Fed has
stated they targeted stocks. Rates say no other options.
From lows of 666 we are at 1500 plus? Nice ride! BUT I think we have seen PEAK in earnings cycle, int rates seem to have bottomed
(though with stock collapse that could change again), there are many signs that
suggest bull mkt of 5 years is in latter stages.
When does it make sense to buy into a bull
in last stages, fundamentals not supporting it, complacency of holders and now
late comers piling on......
Most near retirement have VERY little
saved, going forward what a drag it could be, falling stocks mkt, aging
population needing even more govt assistance, workers taxed out the ass along
with business to help pay for the gap...that only gets wider with the HUGE
unfunded liabilities.....pass the plastic bag and twisty ties.... You CAN delay the inevitable, you cannot avoid it.
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