WEEKEND COMMENTS AND CHART UPDATE

* See how price is controlled by the 200 Exponential Moving Average? (EMA) And now price is below 50 EMA. Much more of a rally and a cross of the 2 seemed imminent.

I drew out a well define Head and Shoulders Formation and you can see how price has fallen below the drawn support (neckline). This is bearish action.

Lowry's gap between buying and selling power has hit a 76 year high! They have been calling for defensive posture, I have been warning of such and shared I sold all remaining longs the week of the highs.

EWT some friends have suggested is calling for a new rally high coming BEFORE ultimate failure, anything is possible, I don't give too much credence to elliot wave calls, I was a subscriber long ago, couldn't trade often off the info nor was it accurate many times missing HUGE moves like in gold, and the 2003 bull.

Earnings week begins Monday, Friday action was muted, most traders probably near neutral stance. The Government is doing most the hiring, most the spending, where is the free markets and public sector? being crowded out also as the GOV needs TONS of $$'s to quench its debt thirst.

There is connection to US $ weakness and market strength, one friend P suggested there is a "$ carry trade action going on" similar to Japanese play during 2003 bull mkt.

With a Lowry's sell in place, market action now below both 50 and 200 EMA's, I cannot go against the prevailing trend which is BEARISH and DOWN.

During Bull markets, BOTH of these moving averages are rising and when SELLOFFS occur offer SUPPORT and GOOD buy the dip opportunities.

The OPPOSITE is true during BEAR MARKETS, you can see what happened to PRICE when it rallied back to the DECLINING 200 EMA.

We will see this change at some point, and there will be AMPLE time to ride the next BULL MKT, I look forward to it.

D

POLICE SEIZE FLAG

(Iraq war vet flag) No freedom of expression?

THAT'S A WRAP

SLow day, a little churning, digesting the slide toward oblvion? OR mustering up another run for the roses? EWT talk circulating has a call for new rally highs ahead BEFORE a plunge to new lows.

I am not fan of EWT, I rather rely on Lowry's stas, we know one thing, unless demand increases in a big way the path of elast resistance is down

D

YIKES!!!!!!!!!!!

FRIDAY AM MARKET TALK

The stock market is close to a TOTAL BREAKDOWN IMHO, the neckline I observed on the Dow was near 8200, even after 2 weeks of battering, the market could not even rise above that break, only points away.

Early AM talk is of "we don't know why futures are down this AM" this is why we use technical analysis, TALK IS CHEAP.....and not usually fruitful. Those buying the market and talking it up don't have a clue in the world.....that the ODDS are not with them in the least.

Here is some news: (broke yesterday) please note Alcoa's performance, but they BEAT estimates!

Alcoa (AA 9.72, +0.26) reported a fourth quarter loss that was above consensus, while revenue fell sharply.

The company reported a fourth loss of $0.26 per share, $0.12 better than the First Call consensus of a loss of $0.38. Revenue fell 41.4% year-over-year to $4.24 billion vs. the $3.93 billion consensus.

Alcoa said the economic downturn has affected most of its end markets - automotive, commercial transportation, building and construction, and aerospace.

from this am on yhoo finance:


The stock market headed toward a lower start Friday as investor anxiety about the economy increases. (it never went away!)

Markets around the world pulled back as traders decided to sell amid the uncertainty about upcoming earnings reports and what they'll say about the economy. News that Chevron Corp.'s refining margins fell in the second quarter added to the uncertainty early Friday; oil companies have been among the country's top performers.

My friends if Banks report stellar earnings would that make sense to you? As home prices KEEP declining how could their portfolios rise in value? Because the CHEATERS dropped MARK TO MARKET that's why.

Wise man once said " a market in decline that cannot rally from oversold conditions is a weak market" TGIF ! WHAT trader wants to hold into the weekend with uncertainty with company earnings which begin in earnest Monday? SO big question for me, is will any DECLINE come from a lack of buyers, or PICK UP in SELLING PRESSURE.....or both?

D

ADDT'L COMMENTS

Todays volume was a slack 27% LESS than yesterdays, where did all the buyers go? Have the insiders run out of free money? We can just print some more.

Folks, we are at the beginning of a new American Revolution. It sucked when Bush used 911 to pass laws taking away our COnstitutional rights, and further his war agenda in Iraq. Politicians will use FEAR to INCREASE their control and power.

Now, Obama is stacking the debt, trying to resurface America and take what's left for his Socialist agenda. There are no new faces running thnigs, some of the same old faces....and the Goldman cronies.

The Revolution begins when enough people get SICK ENOUGH with what our elected officials do, who in their right mind wants that stupid shit barney Frank in office? he's an idiot.

Look, you something is horribly wrong, we dont need left or right, we need what's right for all. Free markets, less government interevntion, smaller gov, LESS TAXES, LESS MILITARY BASES. Let the public sector out and provide for us, not gov.

STOP bailing out, live within the means. WHEN has the GOV known what is best for us??????? If you believe so, bend over and hand them the soap...

D

WAKE UP AMERICA

MARKET WRAP

A big yawner, even CNBC sheisters couldn't hawk it up, who is that trader dude with his apron on every day telling us how great it is, he's a joke.

Port traffic is drying up, dry docked, BDI rocked first quarter but is trailing off now, it rose on Chinese stimulus plans.

Market is in headwind, I am not sure if it even has one good rally left in it. Earnings full tilt next week. I'm not excepting as good LESS WORSE THAN EXPECTED....

D

AM RAMP JOB

Here come the green shooters again....retailers DOWN in sales but BEAT estimates, laughable. Unemployment report is not believable....use your eyes.

Obama plan was social engineering at expense of stimulus, so NO jobs....what a sham

D

"CATOSTROPHE" HOW OBAMA IS STEALING OUR COUNTRY

http://browseinside.harpercollins.com/index.aspx?isbn13=9780061771040&pg=1

WHO will stop this outrage... the markets sense something is wrong...g-d help us as we become Socialized and our rights taken away

D

WED PM MARKET Wrap

8200 MAY NOT BE BETTERED IF DECLINE is going to immediately resume, the market is getting oversold, a bump would be normal action. Todays reversal hid the fact that 2:1 stocks declined on the NYSE. Lowrys selling power actually increased today with buying power falling to a new low. This increases the chances we not only TEST MArch lows but we may break them.

I am fairly certain the economy is NOT on the right track, and maybe using Depression is too strong a word, but this will go down as one of the nastiest Recessions in this countries history.

The odds are now stacked on the Bears side, that tells me to defer longs until we buying interest revive, that may be awhile

D

MID DAY CHART

Note last REd candle on chart, think red line touching my neckline as drawn. IMHO this is valid chart, and maybe this is TEST of breakdown. NO decent bully response to the selling does not bode well. (can click on chart to enlarge)

Duratek

TUESDAY MARKET WRAP "Lights Out?"

Here are some headlines from YHOO FInance

Wall Street Wilts as New Stimulus Talk Stokes Fears- Reuters
U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as talk of a second government stimulus plan stirred fears that the economy is far from well, raising the specter of an anemic second quarter earnings season. A member of the Obama administration's economic advisory panel said the United States should plan to possibly provide a second round of stimulus funds to prop up the economy, implying that recovery is still far off.

Do we need comments like this to tell us the economy is not doing well? Did anyone really believe the GREEN SHOOTS BS?

Dow OFF 162 pts TRANS off 102 pts or 3.2% VIX rose 6.5% to 30.89 (FEAR RISING)

This gets harder to write about as I go along.

"Those who lose the least win" "we all lose" says Richard Russel famed Dow Theorist. For 85 I think he is, amazing intellect.

If I morph into a subscription service, I will keep it reasonable so avg person can afford, and build even more to the service, including my opinions as to where to invest and when. But my MAIN emphasis is and will remain to first educate, enlighten and do my best to keep you out of harms way.

Calls do not always manifest themsleves as good calls immediately, you eventually have to trust someone, and rightnow it is probably your financial advisor if you have one what have they been telling you?

"Hold on, green shoots...." "It's time IN the market, not timing the market" My friends there are TIMES you need to be OUT of the market. You may get a little scalped early on, but it takes time for a trend to develop, once it does my goodness you don't fight it up or down.

I have some learned TA people telling me my H and S formation is not a true formation and calls for 1000 or 1100 SPX by some Elliot Waver followers......others have sited the formation of possible Head and SHoulders in the index, anyhow the 930 SPX are I sited I think WAS relevant and it failed to hold and since then we have been declining.

There's not enough stimulus, the right stimulus and there isnt enough liquidity and what we do have still is deflating assets prices. There has been a HUGE loss of $$$$'s, many have lost 50% of what was to be their retirement nestegg, add in home price declines and you have a HORRIBLE loss of wealth that cannot be supplanted with FED IOU'S.

D

WALL STREET WHITEHOUSE

http://www.counterpunch.org/andrew07022009.html How GS and C run the show.

Markets are CRATERING and some important support is crumbling, below 880 SPX might seal deal.

D

AM POST "WHERE ARE THE POLICE?"

http://www.correntewire.com/great_american_bubble_machine_0 I'll keep posting this piece on GOLDMAN SACHS until I think people have woken up. Is the evidence in dispute that Taiibi presents? Not from where I'm sitting, you can't make stuff like this up.

Why after reading this it wouldn't enfuriate the populace I don't know, and DEMAND change. Dem's got their man in there and he is playing the same game! When you look around and see your neighbor out of a job, just think of all the mney GS is paying out and has with your tax dollars. NO ONE is held accountable.....and it doesn't appear they pay their FAIR share of taxes.

Maybe a bounce back, but I think the market is on a sell, 3 90% down volume days may have sealed the IT trend

D

HIGH ALERT

I want to remind everyone of the Head And Shoulders formation that I believe is very much in play in the major indexes, the Dow recently broke thru its support and the transports had already given us a non confirm of the rally highs.

We have had now 3 90% DOWN VOLUME DAYS in last few weeks, and very little rally in between, it is my belief that the ONGOING BEAR MARKET everyone on CNBC told us was over, and most of their guests told us "now is a great time to buy" is ready to get back to clawing again.

I hope I am wrong, but I think rally is over and next leg down has begun. When you CRIPPLE autos, housing, and financials all at once, the government cannot step in and replace demand. The Chinese market is up nearly 70% and I think may be poised to tumble, how is their economy going to do with world mired in its worst slump since 1929?

This is going to be a bumpy and sorry summer IMHO.

D in CASH 100% and in survival mode

D

PM MARKET WRAP "Misread Economy"

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of major metal manufacturers traded sharply lower Monday, a day after Vice President Joe Biden said the White House "misread" the economy, prompting concerns that an economic recovery could be slower than expected.

In an interview with ABC's "This Week" broadcast Sunday, Biden said the administration "misread how bad the economy was," but stood by its stimulus efforts.

Those comments will likely dampen investor confidence, said David Silver, an analyst with Wall Street Strategies.

During the second quarter, commodity prices "went through the roof," and investors snapped up metal makers stocks on word that the economy was "less bad" than before, he said.

*An economy that's LESS BAD is not a sign we're off to moon again. Job losses that are slowing down are job losses. Prices for homes falling not so fast are still falling.

The Administration has NOT done enough, has the same GOONS from Goldman and friends in places to influence what is good for them.

We have NO ONE in high places who will do what is best for us. Enough hasn;t been done, TOO Much has been done. MANY are near the breaking point.

Lackluster trading day, weak response to 90% down days, when this is over down we go IMHO

D

THE GREAT AMERICAN BUBBLE MACHINE

MATT TAIIBI'S well documented story about GS and its many tentacles.

California is handing out IOU'S to hundreds of companies who have already provided services and product, they can't pay for.

Most State Gov's do not have thetax revenues to balance their budgets, GOV can't bail out one, then all must get bailed out.

BUT OK to BAIL OUT AIG and then have them pass along $12 Billion to Goldman Sachs.....how sick is that?

D

CALLING A BEAR MARKET

http://contrarianadvisor.blogspot.com/2007/11/is-bear-market-approaching.html Here is my post in 2007. To my new readers, my record has been pretty good in seeing trouble coming and getting defensive, out of harms way. 2nd trick is coming BACK after worst is over. To COME BACK you gotta have some cash to buy.

I trust my TA, I trust my Lowry's sub, I trust my support system.......trust what you understand, educate yourself.....today you MUST.

Retirement savings, housing value clobbered......folks we are in SURVIVAL MODE. Hope your 4th was pleasant. Spent mine at MoonDancer winery....blues fest.

D