http://www.independencejournal.com/today.htm
lots to read but as most want to sweep under rug or ignore real issues, the reality is problems still exist, and are not being addressed and won't just go away.
*posting from my iPhone , copy and paste link for web article
Fed has made sure, returns don't exist for savers.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Thursday, December 24, 2009
TIL NEXT YEAR
last post of the year for me, (really) another wave count proposed to me that does seem to fit.
Remember, the volume is next to nothing, JAN 2010 will be very telling, best to all and happy holidays and New Years.
I will be open to any outcome, I am hopeful, even pray for better days for all in the New Years. I will present the economy andmarket as I see it, to the best of my ability and as always will warn hopefully again when the time comes to hunker down and get out of Dodge....or you may believe we have embarked on a new age of growth and prosperity......you would also then believe this begins with the world its most indebted and consumers most underwater, banks least wanting to lend, businesses to invest....well gee nowhere to go but up?
Duratek
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
IS THIS what you'd think you'd see for GS while the S and P is hitting FRESH NEW RALLY HIGHS???
VIX near 19.....as long as VIX is declining stocks will rally.
D
2010 PREDICTIONS
WHAT WILL 2010 BRING INVESTORS? ONE OPINION HERE
One thng for sure, it's been one helluva 2009, but one which saw the avg investor withdraw from equities and pile maybe historically into bonds. The institutional investor is on avg back into stocks.
The bulk of gov stimulus lies ahead, companies have shred vast amounts of overhead and costs and stripped down naked to grow profits with slowing or lower revenues. Financials have been able to raise money and repay a big chunk of money used for bailouts, gee what is not to like?
When I've made decent returns in the past, it has always been from STOCK PICKING, it's probably what I do best. 2 bubbles and 2 pops turned me conservative in that regard, pile on personal business stress, and I pulled in my horns. I accept that, and did what I felt best at the time, which was to protect any asset I had from losses.
When adding in the stock market has gone nowhere in 10 years, I am way ahead of the game, but now what?
Won't businesses need to begin adding workers, for us to really begin the next leg of optimism? With 65% gains from bottom, is it good idea to predict full speed ahead? with only one small retrace of 10%.
We may switch to stock pickers market. We could experience a market like 2004-2005 which mostly went sideways. Consolidating here around 1120 the 50% FIV from highs to lows MAY just have been gathering steam and basing foundation to break out above......hmmm and Precther said short with leverage???
The MARKET TEALEAVES show weakening selling, and growing investor appetite for stocks. Even as other divergences exist, so far have not led to declines.
Many think GOLD may begin to shine again, this AM back above 1100.
FED action threw market into reverse and has defeated 2 Bear markets in a row. Money suppoly to do this has more than doubled in short period of time, banks hold RECORD excess reserves and should this money get lent out in any volume would lead to catostrophic inflation.
This has nothappened as yet and I do not beleive the FED can control it, certainly not w/o raising rates aggresively, which would kill economy.
We are again floating on a sea of debt, and deficits w/o major revival of economy......so for my point of view we have achieved for now a resurrection of bullish stock action but when it ends IMHO no new era has been induced, but more than likely an even worse MONSTER has been forming and when it goes.....will bring down the FED and many of these policies which lead to boom bust cycles.
But game is still on until selling pressure begins to build enough to derail current environment where stocks have risen mostly from withdrawl of selling.
DO you believe the netry by little guy still is in wings? because there is a shitpile of cah there...OR has SO MUCH DAMAGE been down last 2 BEARS that BOND FUND action is no short term phenomenom?
PLEASE, be careful, find an advisor who will swing with the times and not afraid to take you OUT of harms way when that time comes.
SPX dividend yield is currently down to 1.91% !!!!!!!!! Historical SECULAR BEAR MARKET bottoms are born from single digit PE ratios and 6% yields......we weren't even close last 2 bears...and breaking to NEW 10 year lows surpassing 2002 lows suggests.....somewhere folks down the road..... we will need to revisit those lows and either say here we come again or later dude....never again in our lifetimes.....
i DONT like look of a V bottom....w/o a V economy. This is my last post friends of 2009. I WILL return JAN 1 or 2, please feel free to look back at my postings and hopefully you will be back with me as I do my best in 2010 and beyond to tell it like it is.
Duratek
One thng for sure, it's been one helluva 2009, but one which saw the avg investor withdraw from equities and pile maybe historically into bonds. The institutional investor is on avg back into stocks.
The bulk of gov stimulus lies ahead, companies have shred vast amounts of overhead and costs and stripped down naked to grow profits with slowing or lower revenues. Financials have been able to raise money and repay a big chunk of money used for bailouts, gee what is not to like?
When I've made decent returns in the past, it has always been from STOCK PICKING, it's probably what I do best. 2 bubbles and 2 pops turned me conservative in that regard, pile on personal business stress, and I pulled in my horns. I accept that, and did what I felt best at the time, which was to protect any asset I had from losses.
When adding in the stock market has gone nowhere in 10 years, I am way ahead of the game, but now what?
Won't businesses need to begin adding workers, for us to really begin the next leg of optimism? With 65% gains from bottom, is it good idea to predict full speed ahead? with only one small retrace of 10%.
We may switch to stock pickers market. We could experience a market like 2004-2005 which mostly went sideways. Consolidating here around 1120 the 50% FIV from highs to lows MAY just have been gathering steam and basing foundation to break out above......hmmm and Precther said short with leverage???
The MARKET TEALEAVES show weakening selling, and growing investor appetite for stocks. Even as other divergences exist, so far have not led to declines.
Many think GOLD may begin to shine again, this AM back above 1100.
FED action threw market into reverse and has defeated 2 Bear markets in a row. Money suppoly to do this has more than doubled in short period of time, banks hold RECORD excess reserves and should this money get lent out in any volume would lead to catostrophic inflation.
This has nothappened as yet and I do not beleive the FED can control it, certainly not w/o raising rates aggresively, which would kill economy.
We are again floating on a sea of debt, and deficits w/o major revival of economy......so for my point of view we have achieved for now a resurrection of bullish stock action but when it ends IMHO no new era has been induced, but more than likely an even worse MONSTER has been forming and when it goes.....will bring down the FED and many of these policies which lead to boom bust cycles.
But game is still on until selling pressure begins to build enough to derail current environment where stocks have risen mostly from withdrawl of selling.
DO you believe the netry by little guy still is in wings? because there is a shitpile of cah there...OR has SO MUCH DAMAGE been down last 2 BEARS that BOND FUND action is no short term phenomenom?
PLEASE, be careful, find an advisor who will swing with the times and not afraid to take you OUT of harms way when that time comes.
SPX dividend yield is currently down to 1.91% !!!!!!!!! Historical SECULAR BEAR MARKET bottoms are born from single digit PE ratios and 6% yields......we weren't even close last 2 bears...and breaking to NEW 10 year lows surpassing 2002 lows suggests.....somewhere folks down the road..... we will need to revisit those lows and either say here we come again or later dude....never again in our lifetimes.....
i DONT like look of a V bottom....w/o a V economy. This is my last post friends of 2009. I WILL return JAN 1 or 2, please feel free to look back at my postings and hopefully you will be back with me as I do my best in 2010 and beyond to tell it like it is.
Duratek
Wednesday, December 23, 2009
BAGHOLDERS
NEW YORK – Citigroup Inc. said Wednesday it has repaid the $20 billion in bailout money it received from the government.
Citi said it funded the previously announced repayment with a recent stock offering that raised $20.5 billion. The offering included $17 billion in common shares and $3.5 billion in what are called tangible equity units, which can be converted into common stock at a later date.
GEE, that won't cause any DILUTION to current shareholders? SO did CITIGROUP repay the $20B because it is in stronger financial condition? Long live the bull mkt
D
Citi said it funded the previously announced repayment with a recent stock offering that raised $20.5 billion. The offering included $17 billion in common shares and $3.5 billion in what are called tangible equity units, which can be converted into common stock at a later date.
GEE, that won't cause any DILUTION to current shareholders? SO did CITIGROUP repay the $20B because it is in stronger financial condition? Long live the bull mkt
D
SANTA CLAWS RALLY
If asking is this action a "breakout" I would answer it's highly suspect considering the waning volume.Since we have not achieved ANY fundamental improvement in our economy, formed NO basis for job creation, and are creating even more maladjustments with feckless FED policy.....NO I can't say today when this folly ends I just know the ending will look a lot like 2002 or 2009 trip to the lows,
D
MORE BROWN SHOOTS
NEW YORK (AP) -- An unexpected drop in sales of new homes last month stalled a three-day rally on the stock market, leaving indexes narrowly mixed.
Stocks started out modestly higher early Wednesday after a report showing growth in consumer spending last month, but went into retreat at midmorning after the Commerce Department said sales of new homes plunged 11.3 percent in November to their lowest level since March.
The slump in new home sales was disappointing for two reasons -- economists had forecast an increase, and the news came a day after stocks snapped higher on a separate report showing a better-than-expected gain in sales of existing homes last month.
GEE what a surprise, and the 3.5 GDP that was barely 2.2 if that....so what is the March rally built upon???
"castels made of and slip into the sea.....eventually" jimi hendrix
Duratek
Stocks started out modestly higher early Wednesday after a report showing growth in consumer spending last month, but went into retreat at midmorning after the Commerce Department said sales of new homes plunged 11.3 percent in November to their lowest level since March.
The slump in new home sales was disappointing for two reasons -- economists had forecast an increase, and the news came a day after stocks snapped higher on a separate report showing a better-than-expected gain in sales of existing homes last month.
GEE what a surprise, and the 3.5 GDP that was barely 2.2 if that....so what is the March rally built upon???
"castels made of and slip into the sea.....eventually" jimi hendrix
Duratek
YOU CAN BANK ON IT
A SMALL BANK WILL CLOSE NEAR YOU
Some measures of buying momentum peaked 7 months ago! But the market trudges higher. WHat we are witnessing is a VERY narrow focussed market, selective buying that is rising in the absence of selling interest. (note VIX is near lows for the rally)
We have had ONE 10% corrective decline from the March lows. Financials are stuck in trading range that topped in AUG. Measures of volume have been decreasing for months with the rally.
From Lowry's I think I can share one observation, a measure they use for buying power has not made a new high since APril/May. SO as you can see for yourself, prices can rise with JUST the absence of sellers.
When you think of what made prices fall to their lows in MArch, one could make good argument we have seen a potential generational low. WHAT MORE FEAR than a total financial collapse could cause prices to visit that area again?
IMHO, the potential is not great for that to happen, I don't know the limits of gov and fed intervention. What I do know is EVERY time this has happened it ends badly and the back drop of debt overhang and excess consumption, ability of consumer to borrow and gear up consumption have been mortally damaged.
Small Banks do large portion of lending to small business, they no longer are competitive to the BIGGER TO FAIL BANKS, do not have access to the free money as they do, do not make most of their money trading the stock market.
Home Owners drained their home equity like Dracula a victim, left is an empty husk of a corpse.
AT the same time, the taxpayer has gotten more conservative, trying to heal doesn't mean taking risks in the stock market. IN RETURN for this new hunker down behavior, he is rewarded for savings with a NEAR ZERO RETURN ON HIS MONEY. MY BIG ARGUEMENT is the FED need to RAISE interest rates, this is rediculous, there is NO proof this plan is working, and just imagine what SAVERS might do with DECENT RETURNS on SAVINGS?
We can find growth, but the fuel has been spent, bills piling SKY HIGH and IMHO the NEW GROWTH, the NEW REALITY doesn't justify stock prices at these levels.
Duratek
Some measures of buying momentum peaked 7 months ago! But the market trudges higher. WHat we are witnessing is a VERY narrow focussed market, selective buying that is rising in the absence of selling interest. (note VIX is near lows for the rally)
We have had ONE 10% corrective decline from the March lows. Financials are stuck in trading range that topped in AUG. Measures of volume have been decreasing for months with the rally.
From Lowry's I think I can share one observation, a measure they use for buying power has not made a new high since APril/May. SO as you can see for yourself, prices can rise with JUST the absence of sellers.
When you think of what made prices fall to their lows in MArch, one could make good argument we have seen a potential generational low. WHAT MORE FEAR than a total financial collapse could cause prices to visit that area again?
IMHO, the potential is not great for that to happen, I don't know the limits of gov and fed intervention. What I do know is EVERY time this has happened it ends badly and the back drop of debt overhang and excess consumption, ability of consumer to borrow and gear up consumption have been mortally damaged.
Small Banks do large portion of lending to small business, they no longer are competitive to the BIGGER TO FAIL BANKS, do not have access to the free money as they do, do not make most of their money trading the stock market.
Home Owners drained their home equity like Dracula a victim, left is an empty husk of a corpse.
AT the same time, the taxpayer has gotten more conservative, trying to heal doesn't mean taking risks in the stock market. IN RETURN for this new hunker down behavior, he is rewarded for savings with a NEAR ZERO RETURN ON HIS MONEY. MY BIG ARGUEMENT is the FED need to RAISE interest rates, this is rediculous, there is NO proof this plan is working, and just imagine what SAVERS might do with DECENT RETURNS on SAVINGS?
We can find growth, but the fuel has been spent, bills piling SKY HIGH and IMHO the NEW GROWTH, the NEW REALITY doesn't justify stock prices at these levels.
Duratek
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
SOSDD
Pre holiday action, limp volume, 1120 still stands. There isn't much to add to what I have already have been saying.
Action in the stock market does not reflect main street.
D
Action in the stock market does not reflect main street.
D
OSAMA REVISITED FOR THOSE INTERESTED
The Battle for Tora Bora
How Osama bin Laden slipped from our grasp: The definitive account.
Peter Bergen
http://www.tnr.com/print/article/the-battle-tora-bora
How Osama bin Laden slipped from our grasp: The definitive account.
Peter Bergen
http://www.tnr.com/print/article/the-battle-tora-bora
AM DATA "THE BIG LIE CONTINUES"
Briefing.com AM DATA LINK GDP REVISED DOWNARD firts from 3.5% (which helped spur shouts of "RECOVERY IS HERE LONG LIVE US STOCKS" and 2nd revision was down to 2.8% and again "NOT SO BAD SHIT HAPPENS, UP UP AND AWAY" and todays final 3rd revision was
AGAIN GDP REVISED now DOWNWARD TO A MERE 2.2% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! wtf???!!!!!
This repulses me friends, why can't the BLS get an honest asessment of the REAL DATA? I mean we have gone from a ROBUST? 3.5% GDP down to 2.2%???? and the stock market is trying to convince us we have a V-SHAPED RECOVERY?????????? IN WHAT, US STOCK GAMING?
Business investment has shown little or NO recovery in these reports, shoved down to the bottom of importance, if we see a V SHAPED recovery, shouldn't we see business investment EXPLODE? NO it has IMPLODED! and bodes ILL for REAL JOBS.....which would lead to a REAL RECOVERY
Stocks gets bid higher and higher with no support, a withdrawl of selling, 80% of GS profits from their trading gaming desks, so program trading becoming THE MARKET, no meaningful pullback since March, largest rise from Recessionary lows in history of market, $TRILLIONS of $$$$$$"SSSSSS of gov stimulus, CDS market support, housing and mortgage support, TARP BANK bailouts, loan mods, cash for klunkers, bridges and roads to nowhere.......and all we got is 2.2% GDP (even is that real???)
I suspect the old saying, at some point as it takes more NEW MONEY to creat even ONE $ of GDP, we have reached the point where we are "PUSHING ON A STRING"
We have more than doubled the adj money base, of all known monies in less than a year, it is said we have record EXCESS BANK RESERVES, the world has thrown TRILLIONS upon TRILLIONS at this mess, entire countries get bailouts (ICELAND) or default.......and lastly if CHINA is just a fricken humming along while their biggest customer the US whithers away................why isn't JAPAN humming too who should figure to get trickle down from Chinese growth? WHY would Japan need more stimulus? how has stimulus worked for Japan the last 20 years?
I'm going to ask again, tax receipts help fund governments State, local, and DC.........these are DOWN the shitter....yet WASH expands their budgets beyond what already cannot be funded by incoming so that creates even more PRESSURE TO FUND DEBT AND DEFICITS.
WHAT happens to long term interest rates? in the face of historic demand for debt....WHat IS KEEPING RATES SO LOW?
My goodness, is this ever going to end badly..... I REALLY question ability of the market to take out SPX 1120......if so....come the New Year, with BS turn from perfume to an outhouse?
Duratek
AGAIN GDP REVISED now DOWNWARD TO A MERE 2.2% !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! wtf???!!!!!
This repulses me friends, why can't the BLS get an honest asessment of the REAL DATA? I mean we have gone from a ROBUST? 3.5% GDP down to 2.2%???? and the stock market is trying to convince us we have a V-SHAPED RECOVERY?????????? IN WHAT, US STOCK GAMING?
Business investment has shown little or NO recovery in these reports, shoved down to the bottom of importance, if we see a V SHAPED recovery, shouldn't we see business investment EXPLODE? NO it has IMPLODED! and bodes ILL for REAL JOBS.....which would lead to a REAL RECOVERY
Stocks gets bid higher and higher with no support, a withdrawl of selling, 80% of GS profits from their trading gaming desks, so program trading becoming THE MARKET, no meaningful pullback since March, largest rise from Recessionary lows in history of market, $TRILLIONS of $$$$$$"SSSSSS of gov stimulus, CDS market support, housing and mortgage support, TARP BANK bailouts, loan mods, cash for klunkers, bridges and roads to nowhere.......and all we got is 2.2% GDP (even is that real???)
I suspect the old saying, at some point as it takes more NEW MONEY to creat even ONE $ of GDP, we have reached the point where we are "PUSHING ON A STRING"
We have more than doubled the adj money base, of all known monies in less than a year, it is said we have record EXCESS BANK RESERVES, the world has thrown TRILLIONS upon TRILLIONS at this mess, entire countries get bailouts (ICELAND) or default.......and lastly if CHINA is just a fricken humming along while their biggest customer the US whithers away................why isn't JAPAN humming too who should figure to get trickle down from Chinese growth? WHY would Japan need more stimulus? how has stimulus worked for Japan the last 20 years?
I'm going to ask again, tax receipts help fund governments State, local, and DC.........these are DOWN the shitter....yet WASH expands their budgets beyond what already cannot be funded by incoming so that creates even more PRESSURE TO FUND DEBT AND DEFICITS.
WHAT happens to long term interest rates? in the face of historic demand for debt....WHat IS KEEPING RATES SO LOW?
My goodness, is this ever going to end badly..... I REALLY question ability of the market to take out SPX 1120......if so....come the New Year, with BS turn from perfume to an outhouse?
Duratek
GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS ON MORTGAGE MODS
LOAN MODS AND DEFAULT RATES FROM CNN
Also: BDI still in downtrend. 10yr rate at 3.68% seems to have broken out.
Home sales report this AM is expected to show improvement, but it is on life support from the government, how much longer can this last?
Key level on SPX to be challenged this AM 1120, a close above could signal another leg up in process.....even with US $ rally GAME ON from the GAMING CROWD still in vogue,
D
Also: BDI still in downtrend. 10yr rate at 3.68% seems to have broken out.
Home sales report this AM is expected to show improvement, but it is on life support from the government, how much longer can this last?
Key level on SPX to be challenged this AM 1120, a close above could signal another leg up in process.....even with US $ rally GAME ON from the GAMING CROWD still in vogue,
D
Monday, December 21, 2009
TIDBIT
The Architecture Billings Index declined in November to 42.8 from 46.1 showing decreasing demand for design services. Like the ISM index a score under 50 shows contraction in demand, the index was last above 50 in January of 2008.
SO uncertainty in the construction industry is good for who?
D
SO uncertainty in the construction industry is good for who?
D
MISH "MYTH OF EXCESS BANK RESERVES"
"DEATH, TAXES, AND MR MARKET CALLING THE BLUFF"
THIS ARTICLE FROM WEBSITE THE AUTOMATIC EARTH IS A MUST READ. Now it doesn't have to turn out this way, but I have hard time refuting much of what is put forth.
At some point, if indeed the HERD has been bamboozled again, led to the edge, and asked to jump off, with threats of inflation and the deafening lies shouted about recovery and how the FED saved the day.....there is A TRUTH out there, and if you believe the creation of a flood of paper currrency and 0% interest rates can save the day......you may have been fooled yet again.
It is TRUE that is takes an ever increasing amount of NEW DEBT to deliver $1 of GDP, and IMHO we have reached the point of no return, nomore games can forstall the Day Of Reckoning!
The PULL, the SUCKING, the BLACK HOLE of DEFLATION is growing stronger and there is no force in nature strong enough to avoid its grasp and attraction.
The 70 (drawn out by FED manipulations) year cycle of Kondratief, the WINTER CYCLE is HERE, $500 TRIILION or MORE of DERIVITIVE products exists in a most complicated speculative world, many many times greater than the worlds GDP, and this chicken is coming home to roost.
I pray you are in a situation to SURVIVE the coming DEPRESSION, have we not reached a point where no matter the size of external influence, what will be must what will be?
In a world governed by financials, the banking system is IMHO is broke, why do you think, and this is irrefutable, there are RECORD EXCESS RESERVES in the banking system, and banks are not lending?
Duratek
At some point, if indeed the HERD has been bamboozled again, led to the edge, and asked to jump off, with threats of inflation and the deafening lies shouted about recovery and how the FED saved the day.....there is A TRUTH out there, and if you believe the creation of a flood of paper currrency and 0% interest rates can save the day......you may have been fooled yet again.
It is TRUE that is takes an ever increasing amount of NEW DEBT to deliver $1 of GDP, and IMHO we have reached the point of no return, nomore games can forstall the Day Of Reckoning!
The PULL, the SUCKING, the BLACK HOLE of DEFLATION is growing stronger and there is no force in nature strong enough to avoid its grasp and attraction.
The 70 (drawn out by FED manipulations) year cycle of Kondratief, the WINTER CYCLE is HERE, $500 TRIILION or MORE of DERIVITIVE products exists in a most complicated speculative world, many many times greater than the worlds GDP, and this chicken is coming home to roost.
I pray you are in a situation to SURVIVE the coming DEPRESSION, have we not reached a point where no matter the size of external influence, what will be must what will be?
In a world governed by financials, the banking system is IMHO is broke, why do you think, and this is irrefutable, there are RECORD EXCESS RESERVES in the banking system, and banks are not lending?
Duratek
Sunday, December 20, 2009
THE BIG LIE
40% of all people looking for work have been out of a job for more than 6 months, some kind of record.
The BIG LIE is that we have recovery, that jobs are being created, that banks are not insolvent, that the gov and FED plans are working. They are only working for WALL STREET FAT CATS.
A job gives someone purpose and dignity, that has been stripped away from millions. Suffering from a decade of overspending, not saving and rampant speculation and debt creation the time to repair is now, but plans in motion want to deny the past and slow the healing of tomorrow.
Millions have been wasted, or not accounted for, and time ticks away as the core of the American economy rots from the inside.
It was OK for all those manufacturing jobs to be shipped away to China, all those $'s fleeing the US to ASIA but in return we help CHina pollute their country, enslave millions to $'s a day factory work making the shoes and furniture and soccer balls we buy here at such bargain prices....and the price was a buying binge of the decade at cost of lost jobs today.
The problem is friends, when a town like Willimgton Ohio which was featured on 60 minutes loses 10,000 jobs as a factory shuts down, it can't rebuild them and peoples lives are destroyed.
But we do get a health care plan? being sold as a saviour for millions, will not add to deficits and has done what 7 Presidents couldn;t do, reform healthcare...and I guess that is why HEALTH CARE STOCKS are at 52 WEEK HIGHS> and this occurring when the sellout Democrats too public option off table and we will be told this is a victory.
Like the victory over credit card companies? who were given 9 months before any changes and that was time enough to DROP many, and raise rates on the rest......making any changes to legislation meaningless.
Most items at Kohl's to pay were 50% off and we got another 30% off when using the Kohl's card.
later I went to a Sears store and found it near empty of customers at 2 PM the Sunday before Xmas.
2010-2011 will bring us more pain IMHO as a HUGE wave of ALT A and interest rate adjustable mortgages hit the fan....maybe not what SUB PRIME was but bad enough, we are not counting the Commercial Real Estate situation.
My OWN business at risk, I cannot get a small business loan, you can only get a loan when your business is doing well, not when you're not, what retail is kicking ass here? I am not alone.
The home buyer has disappeared, and everyone else is holding back unsure of future afraid to expand.
I have seen little or NO improvement in current situation and have NO visibility.....I wish I was a Wall Street insider getting record bonuses for TRADING STOCKS and not lending.
I wish I could hide losses by not marking my values to current market values.
And all of a sudden the Asian dynamos do not depend on the US market? sure they don't...why the country is exploding with growth because?????
They have been busy using our $'s we threw away, at expense of jobs here and buying the worlds natural resources and building their military, all that must be good?
What is the avg Americans opinion of our politicians? tar and feather them?
We lost our way somehow, the founding fathers wisdom long gone, and we surge our troops into Afghanistan an unwinnable situation as it has been for centuries, showing you we have learned absolutely nothing.
We have learned how to blow bubbles, put irresponsable people in positions of power, turn our heads when trouble is staring elected officials in the face and allow the fleecing of America by the big banks who have transferred their mistakes and losses onto the American people's balance sheet.
We are headed for $100 Trillion of unfunded liabilities and 10% of GDP deficits...and growing.....how sad it all is....and you wonder why we are in a SECULAR BEAR MKT?
D
The BIG LIE is that we have recovery, that jobs are being created, that banks are not insolvent, that the gov and FED plans are working. They are only working for WALL STREET FAT CATS.
A job gives someone purpose and dignity, that has been stripped away from millions. Suffering from a decade of overspending, not saving and rampant speculation and debt creation the time to repair is now, but plans in motion want to deny the past and slow the healing of tomorrow.
Millions have been wasted, or not accounted for, and time ticks away as the core of the American economy rots from the inside.
It was OK for all those manufacturing jobs to be shipped away to China, all those $'s fleeing the US to ASIA but in return we help CHina pollute their country, enslave millions to $'s a day factory work making the shoes and furniture and soccer balls we buy here at such bargain prices....and the price was a buying binge of the decade at cost of lost jobs today.
The problem is friends, when a town like Willimgton Ohio which was featured on 60 minutes loses 10,000 jobs as a factory shuts down, it can't rebuild them and peoples lives are destroyed.
But we do get a health care plan? being sold as a saviour for millions, will not add to deficits and has done what 7 Presidents couldn;t do, reform healthcare...and I guess that is why HEALTH CARE STOCKS are at 52 WEEK HIGHS> and this occurring when the sellout Democrats too public option off table and we will be told this is a victory.
Like the victory over credit card companies? who were given 9 months before any changes and that was time enough to DROP many, and raise rates on the rest......making any changes to legislation meaningless.
Most items at Kohl's to pay were 50% off and we got another 30% off when using the Kohl's card.
later I went to a Sears store and found it near empty of customers at 2 PM the Sunday before Xmas.
2010-2011 will bring us more pain IMHO as a HUGE wave of ALT A and interest rate adjustable mortgages hit the fan....maybe not what SUB PRIME was but bad enough, we are not counting the Commercial Real Estate situation.
My OWN business at risk, I cannot get a small business loan, you can only get a loan when your business is doing well, not when you're not, what retail is kicking ass here? I am not alone.
The home buyer has disappeared, and everyone else is holding back unsure of future afraid to expand.
I have seen little or NO improvement in current situation and have NO visibility.....I wish I was a Wall Street insider getting record bonuses for TRADING STOCKS and not lending.
I wish I could hide losses by not marking my values to current market values.
And all of a sudden the Asian dynamos do not depend on the US market? sure they don't...why the country is exploding with growth because?????
They have been busy using our $'s we threw away, at expense of jobs here and buying the worlds natural resources and building their military, all that must be good?
What is the avg Americans opinion of our politicians? tar and feather them?
We lost our way somehow, the founding fathers wisdom long gone, and we surge our troops into Afghanistan an unwinnable situation as it has been for centuries, showing you we have learned absolutely nothing.
We have learned how to blow bubbles, put irresponsable people in positions of power, turn our heads when trouble is staring elected officials in the face and allow the fleecing of America by the big banks who have transferred their mistakes and losses onto the American people's balance sheet.
We are headed for $100 Trillion of unfunded liabilities and 10% of GDP deficits...and growing.....how sad it all is....and you wonder why we are in a SECULAR BEAR MKT?
D
TOP IS IN?
*click to enlarge as always. Note EAST CAOST BLIZZARD came on bussiest shopping day of year, another BLOW to already reeling Retailers.
Note red arrows and explanation. This is not a prediction, this is a chart of what is.....is.
There is enough here when adding REPEATED attempts of market to cross these bounderies in the last month or so have been defeated, there isn't enough buying enthusiasm, at same time the withdrawl of selling pressure has kept market levitated.
I wonder the players won't LOCK IN record 2009 profits? Maybe waiting for 2010 JAN so having another 12 months to pay taxes?
Argument for BIG "correction" as market rose unabated with one minor 10% correction. AAII polls show a HORDE of bulls and a dirth of bears.
EWT is looking for a WAVE 2 (up) to complete where a WAVE 3 of 5 would begin, wave 3's can be especially ugly. The rally from MArch lows IMHO counts best as an ABC 3 wave correction to primary BEAR MARKET.
I can say my primary sub thinks we are in primary UP move and there is argument growing for correction of more than few days, but that would not defeat uptrend move......I wont rule that out!
But I'll go on record saying I don't think NOW is the time to bebuying or remain complacent in the face of a manipulated market rally supported by FED and GOV intervention.
Happy holidays and NY to everyone, I will be GONE from 25th of DEC til JAN 1st on vacation.
Duratek
Saturday, December 19, 2009
SONG REMAINS THE SAME Weekend post
Until we make a break one way or another it's biz as usual and CHOP for traders.
I tell it like it is but the rest of this post I am going to list
THE THINGS I AM MOST THANKFUL FOR (and you may want to do the same as we have enterred a dark period in history)
My basic good health
My friendships
My wife and son
My parents in heaven may they rest in peace
Our fighting troops for risking their lives for us and their families
For having a meaningful life
My love of music
My good nature (???)
My wonderful home
What I wish for most, for our troops to come home in peace and all those suffering from this horrible economic crisis see hope
Duratek
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