Sunday, November 09, 2014

CONSEQUENCES DELAYED BUT INEVITABLE



I'm all for a bull market like the next guy. But can we just have one that is born, and lives on its own 2 feet? Or is the stock market just doomed to rinse and repeat.....

Organic natural growth would be a lasting one, where there is a natural balance to things and resources.

Instead we get an abomination of reality and manipulation. EACH END (2000, 2007) to the back room guys behind the curtain economy boom mania is an equally or more so bust and panic.

The most recent addition (2009- current) of a false dawn, carries with it historic measures to keep the man behind the curtain hidden, and so will follow with even greater consequences.

D

Sunday, November 02, 2014

DO whatever it takes


http://www.prudentbear.com/2014/10/kuroda-bubbles-and-king-dollar.html#.VFYsamK9KSM

"Importantly, the risks were deeply systemic. Policy responses were systemic. Draghi moved forward with “Do Whatever it Takes,” followed soon by open-ended QE from Bernanke and Kuroda. I never bought into the notion that Fed “money” printing was about U.S. jobs. I don’t believe Kuroda’s move Friday was about Japanese inflation. Policy responses have been akin to Benjamin Strong’s 1927 “coup de Whiskey,” but on a multi-shot global basis (with chaser). And over the past two years we’ve witnessed a 1927 to 1929-like market response, again on a globalized basis. 

Predictably, throwing Trillions of “money” at a global Bubble has only exacerbated instability. Throwing Trillions of “money” at dangerously maladjusted global financial and economic “systems” will surely only worsen the addiction. I see Kuroda’s move as further evidence of global central bank desperation. Global risks have inflated profoundly since 2012."

There are no sound money policies being followed by any world Central Bank, just print away so to speak and all our troubles will go away. Since 1980 with Greenspan, then Bernanke, now  Yellen LOW interest rates and the new QE gambit have given us 35 years of falling interest rates, rising bond prices, worlds longest running bull market , the bond bull. Nothing lasts forever.

What eventually follows EVERY bull market is a bear market. A bear market in bonds would mean rising interest rates. For 5 years now, savers have been punished with near 0 returns on savings. Savings are discouraged, speculating is encouraged. Asset appreciation, looks and feels good has been the aim of the FED since they began easing, then injecting trillions with QE into the speculating pool.

Looks good, feels good, but a false high.

You don't get prosperity  by printing money or every corner of the globe would be rocking. It would be that easy. These policies have made the inequalities around the globe even more pronounced between the upper crust and the stale bread.

Nothing comes for free and no cost, many do not care when or if the piper gets paid. But paid he will get, with more than a pound of flesh when the spring gets uncoiled. It is reaching that zenith in the law of diminishing returns. Just mention QE, throw money out of thin air, and watch the markets soar.

Nope, what me worry?

D

Saturday, October 25, 2014

How far will they go?

From Doug Noland @ prudent bear .com CBR
http://www.prudentbear.com/2014/10/more-wackoism.html#.VEuUFWK9KSM

"Seems an opportune time to revisit Fed governor Bernanke’s speech from almost 12 years ago, “Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn't Happen Here.” Since Bernanke’s 2002 “U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press” dissertation, the Fed’s balance sheet has inflated from $800 billion to $4.5 TN. Treasury debt has inflated from about $4.5 TN to $12.6 TN. Total system marketable debt has jumped from about $30 TN to almost $60 TN. On the rate side, despite booming mortgage Credit growth, the Fed waited until June 2004 to nudge rates up 25 bps (to 1.25%). Rates didn’t make it to 4% until late 2005, just as mortgage Credit was wrapping up its fourth consecutive year of double-digit expansion. 

Bernanke: “But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation. Of course, the U.S. government is not going to print money and distribute it willy-nilly (although as we will see later, there are practical policies that approximate this behavior). Normally, money is injected into the economy through asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. To stimulate aggregate spending when short-term interest rates have reached zero, the Fed must expand the scale of its asset purchases or, possibly, expand the menu of assets that it buys… Thus, as I have stressed already, prevention of deflation remains preferable to having to cure it. If we do fall into deflation, however, we can take comfort that the logic of the printing press example must assert itself, and sufficient injections of money will ultimately always reverse a deflation.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Rally Continues

Futures are positive this morning, the snap back rally has only taken a few days to recover most of its losses from the decline. This type of fierce rally is more reminiscent of a Bear Market rally.

However, my index has reversed its long term signal, so it's either everyone in the pool again, or wait.
Long term interest rates on savings and safe money markets make it near impossible to get a return from sideline money. That's the full intent of the Federal,Reserve strategy, to get everyone in the pool.

D

Monday, October 20, 2014

Does Bull still have a pulse?

My trusted indicator from an index point signal has gathered itself and is above the Bear line. This is a SLOW moving indicator , and as monthly chart needs time to settle itself.
With the recent rally, the initial RED signal with a breach of 90.00 was reversed. I do still believe we are in the latter phases of building THE TOP, if new highs occur, I do not expect them to greatly exceed what is in place now.

A big miss from IBM today didn't paint a great picture for corporate spending, IBM is a better economic indicator than Aaple. IPAD sales are disappointing , but iPhone sales were OFF THE HOOK!
Consumer spending is 70% of the US economy, with wages stagnant that also does not bode well for the economy.
Interest rates are still being held at 0% by the Federal Reserve, even after 5 years of recovery they cannot even say when they will begin to rise.

Is this recent uptick in volatility just a short term phenom? Did we get enough correction to resume bull march upward to infinity?

We are quickly correcting oversold condition, and approaching the 200 day moving average. Let's see if it continues business as usual and what me worry.

D

ECONOMY IS WEAKER THAN IT APPEARS

Bloomberg

Underemployment worse than U.S. data suggest

Federal Reserve policy makers are missing a key element as they assess the health of the labor market: data that includes whether those who are employed are overqualified for their job or would like to work more hours.
In  the midst of weakening global backdrop, investors STAY complacent and feel the Federal Reserve will continue to inflate the stock market, even after 5 years of doing so.

What may be lost on many, is this has been great for the top 1%, who own lost of stock and who also may get stock options, which they convert and sell to you and then pay 15% tax on all the dividends.

A GULF is being created between the haves and the nots. How do you keep a credit bubble going? By expanding the bubble by ever greater quantities, and that is becoming harder to levitate.

I don't see people taking this seriously....to perhaps their own detriment at some point.

D

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Are new highs in the S&P 500 still possible?

I consider my indicator pretty reliable, but we still have the let the month play out , even as it has dipped into Bear territory, it is possible it doesn't end up there but back above the danger line when all is said and done.

It certainly looks like some kind of bottom is in place, and especially traders see the opportunity to catch Bears on the wrong side of trade and squeeze more pain. Friday was options expiration and always the MOST pain that can be afflicted, so be it will be. That coincided nicely with the recent decline into oversold territory.

So now we have the support that was broken and the 200 moving average above, near 1900 and that would be good area to be watching to see if it holds or if when broken the Bears freak and cover into a melt up rally.

Change is in the wind, a TOP is here or being formed with weakness underneath the overall market not seen by many. Could be buying opportunity here, could last into Xmas rally.
October did a good job living up to its reputation as the worst month of of the year.

With drop In 10 year yields, refi's perked up again. And don't forget the extra jingle lower gas prices have put into consumers pockets.
All that said, some retailers are warning of weaker Holiday spending, for some reason...

D

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Rally time?

2 stabs at the lower price range today, good chance short term the selling could be washed out.
On any rally we will pay close attention to how far it can go and where we broke strong support, should now be resistance.

If price can rise above certain levels I am watching I would have to reconsider my Bear Call. Always be open to anything, but I do have my signal. But in TA what has worked before is NO guarantee it will work again. But I a pretty confident a change has occurred.

D