Friday, August 21, 2015

HAS THE BEAR MARKET RETURNED?

I know I had many loyal readers, and I am sorry I have not been able to keep up with this blog, I enjoyed writing regularly for many years. But my business I started 4 years ago is thriving and needs most of my attention.

There are many troubling technical reasons to be concerned with the current state of the stock market.
I won't bore you with exact details, but there is so much underlying weakness in stocks BEHIND the large cap leaders to be alarming. More and more stocks are falling into their own bear markets as the major indexes were reaching new highs, that pattern has only gotten much more pervasive and worse.

They like to say you have just a few generals leading, but your army has run off leaving you to fend for yourself. Sector after sector has fallen into their own bear market....and its reaching a point on no return for the major indexes.

There is no way stock valuations make any sense with the profit expectations going forward. QE and all the tricks like ZIRP has helped only the stock market, but not the real economy maybe limping along at a 1.5- 2.0 GDP

The Transport index made its highs last November, that was 8 months ago!

Commodities are in a bear market, what's with OIL at $40???? When economies are HUMMING, so are commodities...if indeed we are consuming them to make things, build things....we need energy...something is wrong.

China.....as reported this AM on the financial channel a respected analyst Chanos stated " it's much worse than you think".....its major FUBB over their....major....and its just beginning as the govt attempts to buy stocks , whatever it takes has hastened the loss of faith.....there is NO such thing as free markets, the more THEY manipulate, the worse the repercussions

APPLE  has fallen down...actually began 2 weeks ago.

Oil in a free fall  USO

VIX, fear index has spiked, worth watching to see if it has broken out of long downtrend. Higher VIX means LOWER stocks.

ZIRP policy has to end sometime, now with stock weakness will the FED even raise .25% this year?
The current policy is already 5 years into CRISIS LEVELS......did we never leave the crisis?

Markets in BULL mode DO correct, so we don't have to jump to conclusions.....that said, the majority of stocks already in downtrends is not what you see in a healthy bull market.






13 comments:

Anonymous said...

And now that you have posted this, the market is done correcting and will continue to new highs.

Look back at your record about stock market predictions! Not good!!

Anonymous said...

Previous post sent a few months ago. And look where the market it now!!!

You should probably close this site.

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Anonymous said...

Though aging, the bull mkt is still alive. It survived 2 plus years of Transport divergence, so much for Dow Theory. In fact, so much for most forms of technical analysis.
What has " Trumped " all this? Zero FED target inter st rates, leaving investors NO alternative. A mattress returned almost as much since 2009 as savings or money market.
You can decide to keep rolling with what you are doing, and like a broken record, this aging bull will eventually die. What will we see after that? I am hopeful of no more than 20-35% Bear correction. It is possible the whole thing gets unwound. Why?
Because the recovery has been based almost entirely on Fed leaving rates at zero. Now, rates are moving up again, bond yields are following. For now, there has not been a severe reaction, Trump promises 4-5% growth. And SPX profits are EXPECTED to grow again.
The market has been going up, during period of falling SPX profits. Should hope turn to no....mats will begin to reverse.

D

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