Thursday, September 30, 2004

Suspend your reality and enter mine

http://tinyurl.com/4at6r
Suspend your reality and enter mine for a moment.When I consider the relative value of an indicator,I need to be ableto test it over time, like 10 years maybe as shown.I want to know under what circumstances I am viewing the data.....I am neither trying to understand it, or dispell it....I just want tosee if the comparisons, the inferences have held up over a period oftime so I can fairly judge what to expect going forward,We now have a reading, that is beyond ANYTHING seen during the entirebull mkt? as far back as we can go, but for argument sake, as far asmy chart goes back includes the majority of the bull mkt gains....andsubsequent losses.2002-2003 MArch lows are show nicely here...as this ratio....showed alarge amount of negativity vs SPX...I could have bought the SPX as itheaded higher there with some confidence....bottoming under20,anything under 35 a good place to begin looking.I'd say things for peachy bully back when 1999 into 2000 market wasmaking its bull highs...and so was this ratio....it's relationshipshowed a peak...as we can begin looking for one, over 68reading....NONE of which was there before then.

BUT now we have out HIGHEST recorded reading....after 3 brutal yearsof bear...of which never occurred for 20 years of bull!...it onlytook barely 2 years now.I cannot concieve a MEANINGFUL rally coming from OEVR 20 yr bull mktreadings....THIS..where we are now...is the end of something....andthe beginning of something else....not continuation of theformer...IMHO..I cannot concieve of how it will be so.But will try NOT to deny it fight it...or hate it if history isshredded and all we know to use to judge....is found totally useless.

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