Thursday, November 04, 2004

SPX/VIX RATIO

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SPX:$VIX,uu[w,a]wallyiay[pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

This is ONE tool I like to use to guage sentiment. AFter declining th si ratio is right back into area of the highest readings I have seen recorded, even during 20 year Bull Market. And I choose to find that significant!

WHat I Observe during the preceding Bull market is that this ratio was showing a FAIR amount of "PESSIMISM" (the lower the number the higher the relative VIX is as compared to price of stocks).....and stocks TOPPED, MAJOR top in 2000 with a LOWER reading than we have seen here recently.

I don't see how another MAJOR advance in stocks can occur if this relationship persists.

Today the VIX droped like a stone back to a reading of around 13 !! NO FEAR, clear sailing ahead?

NO ONE expects a serious decline anywhere in our immediate to near term future, IMHO

D

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