I SMELL BLOOD IN THE WATER

We have a FED gone wild, we have bullishness gone wild (HUGE gap in RYdex bear and bull funds!!), we have margin debt gone wild, little cash to cover (4% Mutual funds cash levels).
**DEC CROSSCURRENTS.

If economy is on SOUND FOOTING, why is the FED pumping in $40 B a week?

Every time (with NO exception) oil/gas prices such as we have (been near $60 for a yr) led to Recession.

Inverted yield curve....led to recession, yet at same time Fed says "it's different this time" they plan to in March STOP reporting M3. Same time Iran opens Euro's for oil. Near weaker 6 months of market. near ANniversary of 2000 top. Every day adds to OLD 40 month cyclical bull.

Rally NOT being disputed with LOW VIX LOW TRIN LOW CPC/CPCE

Cramer getting face time, has legion of groupies.

ALL moves (like FED int rates) assumed telegraphed.

Margin debt near records set during 2000 bull run, is the action JUST hedgies running after same which is hot (GOOG SNDK GOLD) with little LEMMINGS piling on.....with "free" money the LONG side of trades is like a one-sided Titanic.As MUCH of trading is programmed (up to 70% !!!!) and on MARGIN!!!! imagine the move in REVERSE? forget any stops.

Consumer now has credit card doubled minimum payments, higher adj mortgages, weak wage increases, and an explosion coming in AMT taxes. Real world energy prices and real world inflation on things we must have also crimping cash flow. With slow or end to property value rise, much harder to pull cash out of home.

It seems to me, too many Hedge Funds, hardly regulated, buying on leverage, most on SAME SIDE of trade.....set up similar to 2000 top is in place NOW.

11K almost a sure thing to be broken, then what? A BLOW OFF TOP? rise to NEW HIGHS IN DOW? BUT my friends, when a market exhibits behaviour more like 2000 than 1982, what do you do?

The downside protection being given away, and most bears gone and shorts covered, and all eyes on Dow 11K, eyes have been removed from the dangers, the underlying falsity of the move, of the fundamentals.

An accident is waiting to happen, and I won't be on the roads when it happens. As Newman professes "all he lessons of the mania offere have been ignored"

Duratek (I have turned EXTREMELY bearish because most are not)