SATURDAY MORNING POST

So here we are, my haven't we come a long way? Who among you thought you would see Dow above 12,000? How about that bursted housing bubble? Iraq war, deficits, stock option scandal, etc etc.

Selling pressure has melted away, giving way to a renewed bullish zeal maybe never seen, by some measures one wonders if 1982 Bull market ever ended?

Years after mid term elections are usually VERY BULLISH seldom blue. I wont take too much trying to explain it, wondering where did that 4 yr cycle low go, or how the market can gain almost every day or ignore monumental divergences and inbalances and record debt.

What we have is record earnings expansion, fueled by easy money, financials from trading and IPO'S M and A activity, a virtual frenzy.

The FED stands pat, idley by, as the market spirals up out of control and no anchor to reality. They are and have been fostering every kind of bubble and form of asset inflation, and are mainly responsable for every crisis.

I do not know where this rally goes or where it ends. AS long as traders/investors fear not (VIX 10) and money flows in not out, maybe longer than anyone predicts....or it could suddenly end without notice.

As a new high is in DOW, CRASH potential is now back on the table, the 2 CRASHES have only occurred very shortly after new highs, not well into any bear market, no near the top....this is a rare phenom.

So, maybe no news matters, it isnt all jiggy news we see, 1.6 GDP (could be lowered when revised) we have a reliable indicator, the yield curve telling us Recession is coming or here, but it is excused away.

WHat matters is enough want this market, have to be IN this market and the flow of cash is blowing away any sellers.

Is FRIDAY the top of this rally VERY short term? I think it is possible, we have VERY overbought condition daily and weekly, and I see momo divergences all over the place, but Fri was not VERY aggresive selloff, and may be over or last just a few days.

Lots of retraces back track 30% of rise, so we need to be watchful here to see what develops.

The rise VERY sharp parabolic like, when or if parabolic rise is done, it usually gets 100% retraced.

Goldilocks landing/economy? ALL I see is one asset inflation being traded for another, so this musical chairs Ponzi scheme marches on, but at some point the music will stop, no greater fool will arrive, and no one to tell those to get out that may have gotten back most or all of their bear losses, 2nd time no charm and will be horribly painful. IMHO

Duratek