THE BULL ROMPS

Until the BEars stop trying to call the TOP, and IMHO until the CPC (put call ratio) takes a hard dive this rally can feed off the newbie dopes who might keep getting in front of it as it has feasted on the ones already run over.

When ALL have given into its hypnotic cry of riches and any stock can rise, obviously this is not the Titanic yet, it seems topsy, it seems unreal, it seems like it needs a breather, it keeps going up. The animal is loose when the techs lead the way, we might be in that phase now.

PPI shows almost deflationary drop, maybe market loved that, FED will soon cut? Can they? The YIELD CURVE says they MUST! 10 yr near 4.5% but 90 day money is near 5% ??!!! woweeee the shits upside down and being ignored.

ENERGY TRUSTS have been GORED by tax fears, even if not taking effect until 2011 !!!!

I am licking my chops to nibble, but it is always toughest when something is getting blown up, right ow maybe too hot to handle, I am charting the secrot now, but if OIL does not hold this area and falls below recent low range, they could be whollapped again.

Consumer spending falls for second straight month.

Housing stocks rumbled today? what happened to the bubble?? saying low rates here we come!

Well if bonds are soaring money not coming out of there, money also in stocks, liquidity floats all boats.

I could say when this party is over, the market of 2001-2003 will look tame, but I wont.

I am NOT short any more, even though my charts tell me a comeupins is NEAR, I mean what I see has held true last 5 years on my indidcators......but only once did the market NOT bottom in OCT, in last 10 years!!! well make that 2 now in over 10 years...it tricked us and bottomed in JUly.

I see where the NAZ has declined most years in Jan quarter, but these days, I dont know if I want to bet on it.

One lesson all must learn for sure, you can find ALL the fundamental reasons, and charts that say this ish ow IT SHOULD BE, but shoulda coulda dont make you money, not fighting the trend does.

Specialist short position just SKYROCKETED, I thought I'd throw that in.
http://tal.marketgauge.com/dvMGPro/Charts/Charts.asp?chart=SPCSRT It doesnt have to lead to a huge retrace, but it normally is good NOT to bet against these guys while they are at an extreme.

Money managers MUST run after performance, evryone is running to and running from.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page3.pdf I am concerned with this chart.

So have fun while the fun lasts, I have a sip, but I sure as hell am not staying long enough to get drunk. For I am at least of memory of 2001-2003 and know that NO BEAR MARKET has ended with the SPX PE ratio and DIVIDEND yields where they were in 2003 bottom.

We are in the stratosphere of performance historically, and sooner or later you revert to the mean.

I get the feeling at some point next year this might be visable, but then no year after MIdterms has evern been a disaster, and most quite good, more history for you....not a guarantee.

If Dem's go after BUsh, all bets are off and tax cuts, but we dont know just yet what 2007 holds, for all of us I hope promise, and no worse than muddle thru.

Trillions in mortages are set to go much higher in 2007, and could greatly effect consumer spending. Savings rate still negative.