Thursday, February 08, 2007

NEW LOW FOR COPPER

We have new lows for copper (in BEAR MKT IMHO) we have had inverted yield curve for an extended period of time, near collapse of housing mkt, near exhaustion of cash out refi's, all of which point to some kind of economic slowdown or Recession, but none in sight? strange very strange.

Dow and Transports now in synch with new highs (9 months after Trannies first made new high w/o Dow) the NAZ 50% below previous 2000 bubble highs is LAGGING badly, even after CSCO earnings hype.

Several of my trusted subs say NO NEW HIGH IN SIGHT, uptrend should continue for "at least 4 more months".hmmmmmm

As prices rise, we need to see buying demand diminish, selling pressure must rise, new highs vs new lows must fall.

I see even now a VERY SELECTIVE rally, it hs been called a "stock pickers market".

VIX (volatility index) extremely LOW, no one buying put protection.

I am looking for interest rates to rise (10 yr) above 5%, will be initial sign of trouble IMHO.

Weren't a slew of mortgages supposed to rise this year in payments?

Early year money pump is right on schedule propping things up.

Bullish is year after mid term elections historical bullsihness.

I would abandon WEAK performers in favor of strong stocks in the strong sectors, if you feel you must be IN. IMHO

When was the LAST serious correction?

D

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