How's it going lurkers?
This could negate the importance of the 90% upside day after the first 2 90% downside days which began in Feb 27th with 99% downside volume day, one of if not worst on historic market data.
That was taken lightly as the VIX melted back away but SHOT up again today. Of note the VIX stayed about its now rising 20 EMA and a rising trend in the VIX is VERY BEARISH if it continues.
Tomorrow I think is a CRITICAL day for the markets. Many think if 12,000 is broken
(it should be) and that break holds, then we will work our way back to 11,000, any 20% correction is considered a Bear Market. (somewhere near 10,200) 11,475 ish is the 10% NORMAL correction many were "hoping" for.
There is MORE at stake here, we have RECORD MARGIN DEBT BEYOND EVEN 2000 BUBBLE TOP!!! WTF???? and some never learn?
We have subprime lender crisis. Long in tooth bull market. Interest rate inversion (Recession indiactor) WE have DOA housing market and trickle down effects on busineses. Many housing stocks hitting new 52 week lows.
25 year uptrend line from 1982 bull lows is near 11,000, this must NOT be broken o maybe back to 4,000-5,000 on Dow IMHO.
Home Equity loans supporting spending done! Housing NOT affordable to most.
Inventories are building, consumer demand not strong. Price pressure to salaries, prfoit miracle done IMHO, most likely string of double digit SPX earnings growth OVER.
NO leadership in market. Defensive stocks stronger, appetite for risk on decline?
Avg Joe has done NOTHING, sold NOTHING, while he watches and begins to ask what is going on, gets a little nervous, but hasnt sold anything. ALL those gains in jepeordy IMHO
BULL MKT IS INTACT however according to my TA on moving averages, but if we get a cross from 20 week through 50 week, to me that is bear cross, and LOTS of damage would already be done.
As I said before I am IN CASH 100%, I am in effect shorting stocks by being able to buy them MUCH cheaper then they were, when time is right. QID fund is on upswing (inverse naz 2X)
WHAT of potential MARGIN CALLS? FORCED LIQUIDATION, selling of securities.....is possible, and makes matters worse, as bears tag on.
rally off lows was weak, on weaker volume, todays selloff on HUGE VOLUME. NYSE near DOUBLE the NAZ!!! that is a sign also I think.
Hey, I do my thing, I try to reach out, I try to keep open mind to any outcome, but I was ONE LONELY BEAR!
I may write in vaccum, not sure how many read, I have heard from a few readers from around the globe, but I'll keep my blog going, no matter what.
When I think of it I will post my 25 yr Dow chart
Duratek
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