WHERE'D THE CONSUMER GO?

OIl's Top
Hard to call a top when in a bull, and oil and nat gas certainly are, is $120 THE blow off top? oil holding well with recent surge in $$ too....unwinding of hedge here maybe not so yet.
Declining economies use LESS OIL, in past RECESSIONS (we are?? haaa)Oil use and price has declined...so if the current oil highs are supported by demand then what holds it up? bubble...
When trading you "go with flow" right? I agree a top price is near...refiners not sharing in glee....pick a botton there?
I AM in retail, there IS a marked slowdown, only the guy in foreclosures is jiggy.....TIMES "The New Austerity" http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1720049_1720050_1721656,00.html
Let's recap where we are?
STIGLITZhttp://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2008/04/stiglitz-us-facing-long-recession-that.html
We have lost MASSIVE VELOCITY of MONEY and investment....and consumption..=liquidity and credit expansion
WHAT'S DRIED UP?
HELOC'SCDO'SM&A'SIPO'SVENTURE CAPITALLending standards tightened, banks stingyGrowth of adj monetary base stagnantsavings at zeroDeclining home valuesDeclining asset valuesRising inflationStagnant wage growthJob lossesBanks being (investors) sold out to Sovereign FundsConsumer confidence lowers in decades
SO during the long bull mkt we had? CREDIT EXPANSION, and now? WE HAVE CREDIT CONTRACTION
You say.."but stock market not doing so bad considering" many might agree, but we DO get some VERY NICE rallies during BEAR MKTS even some lasting months....
WE DO seem to rally into FED MEETINGS
1400 area is designated TOUGH RESISTANCE, and my friends a SOLID close ON STRONG DEMAND above 1400 are would be convincing...that it got legs.
Recent rally has been decieving, IMHO more lows than highs on falling volume and breadth......we need to see ANY UPCOMING RALLIES COME WITH STRONG DEMAND (upside volume) because w/o it, it cannot last, withdraw of selling alone aint gonna cut it.
Duratek