Wednesday, November 12, 2008

HOLD THE LINE......NOT!

Arrows point to logical next visit and chances are those OCT lows will not hold!

The area of sideways trading now appears to have been basing for next move down NOT accumulation as had hoped (bulls)

Controversial piece "Who are the architechts of the collapse"
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10860

DEFLATION? (thanks to JD)
http://tinyurl.com/4fq2fu

Deflation great enough to bring the nominal interest rate close to zero poses special problems for the economy and for policy. First, when the nominal interest rate has been reduced to zero, the real interest rate paid by borrowers equals the expected rate of deflation, however large that may be.3 To take what might seem like an extreme example (though in fact it occurred in the United States in the early 1930s), suppose that deflation is proceeding at a clip of 10 percent per year. Then someone who borrows for a year at a nominal interest rate of zero actually faces a 10 percent real cost of funds, as the loan must be repaid in dollars whose purchasing power is 10 percent greater than that of the dollars borrowed originally. In a period of sufficiently severe deflation, the real cost of borrowing becomes prohibitive. Capital investment, purchases of new homes, and other types of spending decline accordingly, worsening the economic downturn.
Although deflation and the zero bound on nominal interest rates create a significant problem for those seeking to borrow, they impose an even greater burden on households and firms that had accumulated substantial debt before the onset of the deflation. This burden arises because, even if debtors are able to refinance their existing obligations at low nominal interest rates, with prices falling they must still repay the principal in dollars of increasing (perhaps rapidly increasing) real value. When William Jennings Bryan made his famous "cross of gold" speech in his 1896 presidential campaign, he was speaking on behalf of heavily mortgaged farmers whose debt burdens were growing ever larger in real terms, the result of a sustained deflation that followed America's post-Civil-War return to the gold standard.4 The financial distress of debtors can, in turn, increase the fragility of the nation's financial system--for example, by leading to a rapid increase in the share of bank loans that are delinquent or in default. Japan in recent years has certainly faced the problem of "debt-deflation"--the deflation-induced, ever-increasing real value of debts. Closer to home, massive financial problems, including defaults, bankruptcies, and bank failures, were endemic in America's worst encounter with deflation, in the years 1930-33--a period in which (as I mentioned) the U.S. price level fell about 10 percent per year.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Be careful comparing deflation in the 20th century and deleveraging in the 21st century. We had a true gold standard in the 30's and the US dollar was not backed by debt. When dollars were hoarded in the 30's they had value.

It would be a shame if our "trustworthy" folks at Treasury and the Fed were to discover one day that their very hard efforts of trying to save the the Global Financial System just wasn't working out. They might decide (while you sleep) that your best interests would be served by re(de)-valuing the US dollar to a much lower value since we might end up bankrupt (it's all the fault of those idiots who lent us $10 trillion++!). Of course they are much too smart and trustworthy for anyone to think that of them.

Today there just may be a temporary mis-pricing of physical gold, physical silver and oil in US fiat dollar terms. These could be the new currencies of the 21st century since they can't be created out of thin air (like federal reserve notes (FRN's)).

It all comes down to trust, would you rather be holding physical gold and silver today or a fiat currency backed by nothing, tinkered with by a college professor at the Fed, the former CEO of Goldman Sacs at Treasury, and the (Democrat) controlled US Congress with NO transparency and accountability?

Trade as many FRN's as you can for these physical assets, while you still can....