*click to enlarge
and from wikio.com subject search addt'l David Rosenberg
"Is the reason that this doesn't feel like a recovery because so many things have not recovered? Sure looks like it.
One factor that is followed to track recoveries from recessions is GDP. The weakest GDP recoveries in the past 60+ years are shown in the next graphic"
and check out gluskin sheff website
With some effort I was pleased to hunt down the chart above from gluskin sheff's David Rosenberg, one of the few truth seekers out there and he backs up every word with gobs of data and charts....and I'm bringing it to you!
OK OK, relax.....YES the stock market has broken out of ONE of the trading ranges listed, however, on the weekly chart I posted yesterday I consider 2 addt'l levels of RESISTANCE most likely to get market to pause. (transports did not close to new high)
I want you to THINK about what "THEY" are presenting to you as BULLISH FODDER and PROOF of recovery, reasons to draw you into the market and grow optimism.
They do this by having NBER (more smart dudes with dipolma's) tell you that 15 months ago the Recession ended??? how does that do anyone any good? WHen did they tell you we were IN that same Recession? this NBER ain't worth SQUAT...lay it down in your cat box.
And when the DATA PEOPLE give you positive data, lots of times they come right back month later and revise it DOWNWARD.....
As above chart PROVES (no opinion, fluff, or BS needed) this is like the exact OPPOSITE of what RECOVERY looks like when comparing to previous ones...period.
We have stock rally based on yesterdays news, while the REAL ECONOMY looks, feels, smells like a dead duck...quacking.
If the recovery is so sound...why do FED rates lay at 0% almost 2 years after getting there? WHY is the GOV talking about another round of STIMULUS? why are car sales close to 11 mil yr vs 16 million? Why is there NO STATISTICAL HOUSING RECOVERY? Why aren't DEMAND for loans jumping off the charts? BANKS will not loan to those in need the most.
Bond yields near 2.7% on the 10 year surely don't represent a strong economic recovery, how do yields limp along at historic lows while they tell you all is jiggy? and governments worldwide are issuing record amounts of debt?
How do you price a S&P 500 when 30% of the earnings come from Financials who do not account for the bad mortgage paper they hold?
How do you square the preaching of recovery while the FED goes about QE2 and does their best reliquifying markets?
How does the bullish calls square with 2 yr notes at or below .5%? a record low.
How do we have a lasting healthy recovery when the GOV becomes the main BORROWER and SPENDER? WITH TAXES SET TO RISE? WITH GOV REGULATION INCREASING? WITH BUSINESSES RELUCTANT TO SPEND THEIR CASH AND INVEST? WITH 10% UNEMPLOYMENT? WITH 1 MILLION out of 99 weeks of handouts?
With record amounts strategically defaulting on loans to maintain spending? WIth housing still DOA? WIth $7 TRILLION loss of home equity. the main source of wealth and borrowing power in this country?
Running $TRILLION deficits each and every year, how does the US get back to fiscal responsability and sound money policies? Has Social agenda taken prominence over pro business actions?
WHY are bond yields back down near levels seen at worst of crisis?
You can lead a prospective borrower to water but you can't make him borrow....or the bank lend.
You can't print your way out of debt nor spend your way to prosperity or something like that.
follow this link to huffington post.com, does this look like recovery to you?
The American people have been had, the largest wealth transfer in history has taken place, we sit here with negative net worth (owe more housing debt than equity), lost $7 TRILLION in home equity, and the cheers, for me at least are fading from the announcement the Recession "officially" ended 15 months ago.....
Duratek
No comments:
Post a Comment