Saturday, January 29, 2011

WHAT KIND OF MARKET ARE WE IN?

Power of this move doubles the avg phase 1 bull , (I may use 3x bull etf's at appropriate moment buying opp appears) No chart using any combo of ma's will show anything but solid uptrend.

Until Fed is forced away from manipulation, or rates skyrocket....
Bull continues.

Phase one avg length less than one year, we are 23 months in and counting! That's what $4 trillion will buy you.

Stupid to keep guessing for a top when trend is solid up.
MA's tell the story, that is the voting mech. Like it or agree not.

I still think this all occurs inside Secular Bear.....but too early to consider its return.

3rd yr presidential cycle avg bullish.....might be oddly until 2012...though all words about 2012 are bearish with gloom and doom....that is contrarian in nature.

China in bear mkt. Arabs restless. Euro zone tightening, Brazil tightening, China tightening, Others fear inflation......not here!!!

At the end of this bull flow...will come unimaginable hardship....until then the laws of supply and demand trump all.....will it be an end to bond bull and SHARP rise in yields that blow up edifice of debt and make it near impossible to fund unending deficits?

At the end of the day, continued misuse of printing will finish off the US $, for now Euro Zone and other world issues defray attention away and make US seem more appealing....very possibly attracting money flow.

IF US profits do not keep up with wild speculation, we know how that will end up.....

I do myself and others a diservice if I don't explore all sides of the story, if I don't consider all options and potential.

At its most dismal in 2009 was the VERY time to buy maybe in your lifetime....many bears regret this and continue to hold onto and maybe even continued to position SHORT against the OBVIOUS TREND!!! this is financial suicide!!!! SO was long at the 2007 top....FED has made most whole again.....2nd time in 10 years......

MY feeling is at SOME POINT, this financial engineering will BACKFIRE as the previous 2 X of historic LOW rates held FAR TOO LONG have.....odds say when bull is done, maybe even to new highs (yes I said it) we could again see a 50% drop in prices.....YES there is going to be a time ahead of us you will want to be in CASH AGAIN!!

I'm going to do my best to see that day as I have in the past....there is no guarantee....I already know the DANGER in buying just because of momentum.....most of 1980-2000 bull gains came from 1998-2000 in its FINAL BLOWOFF STAGE.....may happen again like that.

Monkey wrench for me is how fast the BULLISH MANTRA and sentiment has come back to the prior extremes.....that in of itself cannot pinpoint THE TOP......

Currently we could see long awaited correction and we will monitor its intensity....I do not have data for Friday as to whether it was another 90% day....it may have fallen short at 89%....though NAZ was above 90%......at least Friday did show, it isn't always in a straight line..

D

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