Thursday, August 04, 2011

BLOOD BATH AND A TICK AND IS BEAR MARKET BACK?

My tick chart suggests we are near a rebound, today might have been ST washout, VIX spiked above 30. Looks like most got thrown out with bath water.

Difference is I've been warning that we have ALREADY be in the grasp of the BEAR.Several of my indicators have already flipped over. We look headed for sure for a 50/200 bear cross, when and IF that 200 has similar trajectory as 50 there won't be anymore guesswork.

You can only live in a wonderland for so long and this is a perfect example of how fast the market can move down, 10% in 9 trading days.

We have now had 2 corrections better than 10%, last summer we had one of 16%. I am pretty sure Lowry's stats once ago said there has been no bull with 2 corrections greater than 10%....so what is this?

90% days are conviction and fearful buying and selling days, since 2009 the majority if them have been declines.

The worlds economies are slowing, and to say corporate profits HAVE been good, OK.....but maybe market is saying they have been as good as they can be.

The backdrop does not seem conducive to a sustainable recovery, have felt so all the time.....and I am so very sorry to say, IMHO...the BEAR IS BACK.

AFTER ALL the technical damage, we would have to have one helluva turnaround in sentiment.

Duratek

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