Saturday, September 28, 2013


"Those of a bullish persuasion would argue these dynamics confirm the underlying strength and stability of the U.S. economy. I’ll counter with the view – one supported by Fed data - that massive federal deficits and Federal Reserve monetization have created unprecedented and deeply systemic financial and economic distortions.

An economy on firm footing would be one demonstrating at least a reasonable balance within the real and financial sectors. One would hope to see sound money and productive Credit financing capital investments throughout the economy - liquidity/spending power entering the system primarily in the process of financing economic wealth creation in the real economy (as opposed to financing consumption and asset speculation). "
The mere mention of a SLOWING of FED asset purchases down from the current $85B a month would have risk markets convulsing, interest rates shooting higher. SO at the last FED meeting we had a STATUS QUO instead of any even mild change in FED actions and policy.
The predictions now for GDP and the REAL economy are weaker for the 2nd half than just earlier this summer? How can this be? New highs in the stock markets, near or record lows in junk bonds and yields in general?
Federal spending and FED asset purchases have replaced SOUND money and investment, which lead to REAL economic growth and solid job RISK assets vs home owners equity are where the avg citizens wealth resides.......I don't like the sound of that....
I think the FED has now painted itself in a corner, the crack addict economy needs to know there will be NO change in the dose, or withdrawl symptons will surely be manifested.
We have the ILLUSION of a real economy and sound policy....imagine that.


Anonymous said...

Same old song and dance for 10 years. Just re post old posts.

All you got is running out the clock on the beautiful bull market you missed for years. It's going to happen , because it always does, then you are going to try and take credit for warning people. Come on man.

And I was wrong too. The most dangerous thing was to be not invested in this market, no the most dangerous thing was listening to people like you. Jack B

Marc R said...

JB, this is a game of the tortoise, not the hare. In 1980 you needed to sit still for 20 years...and should have as that was the last great bull mkt...real growth.
Now it takes a false infusion to keep it going, any mention of easing the heroin causes withdrawl's my thing to point out the gray clouds, its yours to see blue skies....thats just how it is.
I HAVE made a lot of money in the stock mkt, I DO have funds still invested in my 401K.

You have fun chided me, that's cool, but you miss the entire posts are from a fundamental view....I don't offer investment advice....others do that.

You are correct, I have called the prior 2 bear mkts, not many have....I will accuartely see the next one before most do...I'm pretty sure of that....I have a system of charting that has been very accurate.

I don't just go yahoo like you, I ask why.....what stocks are doing does not equal what my EYES are seeing......

EACH boom since 2000 has been followed by a worse BUST....will the next one as well? NOW THAT...if one COULD...would be worthy of trying to sidestep.

I will go on far, it is true, that old cliche' "it's time IN the mkt, not timing the mkt". this will work for most people....unfortunately it doesn't work for me.

Most of what people see is in rear view mirror, so I dont second guess myself...

Marc R said...

ALSO, I started my own company over 2 years ago, and have been doing well. And the majority of my time has been spent growing, taking care of that.

During the time frame of 2009, when I DID get a BUY was not a amtter of finding a pair to go in near the was me leaving a failing family business.....and going it alone for the first time in my life...after pouring 6 figures back into the biz, I said NO MORE in 2011.....maybe this helps you understand WHY I did not even follow my own advice...MY OWN TA that said a LOW may be the reality of my situation...could NOT allow any risk i did not.
THEN, all my efforts went into growing my new business....that left little time for me to make other know the hardest thing to do is come back once you are out....and is why MOST of the time one shouldn't.

It's a time horizon thing, the next bust can only do one of 2 things...set a new SPX low...and show a divergence in MOMO....or...set a higher LOW and bottom and give solid evidence the next great bull is basing and maybe the worst is over.

Anonymous said...

You say that now. Over a year ago while the market was correcting, you said this is it. NEW LOWS ARE COMING!! HA HA. An absolute tear to the upside ever since.

Just admit you read everything wrong and what the fed is doing is working.