Friday, October 18, 2013



The crowded risky asset trade Titanic is near fully loaded, when it hits the iceberg! and it will, you know it will. I DO NOT know when as the game continues it would seem to NO end. ADJ Money base has already grown by $1 T this yr alone....these are all historical records!

IMHO, valuations are far beyond the fundamentals, and other things like Int rates are DRAMATICALLY lower and away from their mean.....manipulation by the FED is at historical levels and is the MAIN driver of asset prices.....all this while our economy is running aground and cannot even produce a 2% GDP.....
Things will eventually SNAP my friends, no one knows at what point, when........we have a critically maladjusted economy, cannot function without MASSIVE FED interference and is addicted to FED QE, now at $85B a month. ANY normalization of longer term rates would cripple the US ability to pay the interest on the debt.
Obama says in a recent BS speech " I have cut the deficit by more than any time in the last 50 years"
IS this true? Only if you realize under him it grew to $1.5T and is now back to $750B.....still higher than at anytime while Bush was President, and the 2 faced chided him over this debt pile up.
Now with "affordable care act" we have grown the gov't intrusion and size to new bounds. We have an over bloated system as it know it takes 2 Federal employess to do the job of one private sector....we keep paying and paying......
Cheap money allows this game to continue, the day of reckoning pushed farther back. But at some point the rubber band is going to break.
Money put in a safe place returns you NOTHING, forcing the FLOW into one space, the stock market looks good now....but history tells me its just another bubble. Just another in a series of boom/busts we have seen before....
WHEN the music stops, that will be one don't want to be holding these same moon shooting risky assets.....they are NOT moving of their own accord, IMHO


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