Saturday, November 16, 2013

"HEARING JANET YELLEN" Doug Noland's latest.

Neither Ben, nor Yellen saw the housing bubble forming, and now she does not see an equity bubble forming either. So the market and the leveraged privaledge class are ALL IN and THEN SOME.

FED balance sheet rose 35% this year alone ($1T), so have stocks....certainly NO correlation here.

Though I cannot argue I rather have an economy limping along then one in a death spiral, but when does it go along on its own 2 feet? The LONGER everything is supported by the QE and ZERO interest rates, the harder it will be to function without it. And the higher we go, the harder the fall will be.

Is the market "meltup" being supported durectly by FED policy?

"Investors aren’t worrying much about the stock market, and that worries Edward Yardeni. "

I think this current bull market has further to go, and THE END I don't think can occur without one violent zap hgiher in a blowoff top sort of action, where we might get an intraday top and reversal.

And it must go along that the masses, will not see danger, and will continue to sit tight as this mess unravels.

Even Yardini, in the above piece see SPX 2000 plus in 2014. Other measures of this bull mkt show a healthy one, without many of the normal signals it might give that a top is in the near future (up to 6 months out).
It may be long in the tooth, but that doesn't rule out much higher prices, or even a nasty correction is around the corner.

We arrive in November a normal bullish period thru Xmas, with markets already enjoying a helluva year.

I dont care what the FED says or anyone else, the action since 2009 is ALL but supported by the FED balance sheet.

Is it any wonder the FED can create a $1T a year out of thin air, and same time BITCOIN appears, a "VIRTUAL" currency, and it (digitally) is tearing through the roof in value....

I say, and repeat buyer beware, but calling tops a tricky business and at this point, and its backed up by the fear guages....not a lot of worry out there....not at all.

PROBLEM is, sooner or later there will be and we are not talking 1 for 1, players are playing with OPM...and it will unwind and feed on itself, a lot faster on the way down, then it did on the way up.

We ARE in the process of forming a top, but the level that occurs may even surprise me.

How we got here, ignorance to bubble formation, will insure a painful retreat



Anonymous said...

EVERYTHING is just fine. Fed is doing their job. A lot of happy people out there with a lot of money. This are getting much, much better and the market is telling you that.

Anonymous said...

Come on! Please admit you have been wrong for years!! Market keeps going up as you were calling for the market to head lower.

Admit you were wrong!!

Market is going to keep climbing, just like I have said for years.

Anonymous said...

Boy oh boy, have you been wrong!!!

QE is working!!!!!!!!!!!!!!