Friday, January 14, 2005

4th and GOAL

As we approach this Friday, and long 3 day weekend (markets closed Monday) I want to look at the backdrop of market action.

Behind yesterdays late 100 point droop, was the previous days last 15 minute reversal and 60 point jaunt! And you think you're confused? WHO didn't think a rally follow thru was do today? And especially after AAPL tore the cover off, behind the amazing Kreskan..I mean INTC....remember I noted that even a BBBAAABILION $$$ increase in INCT Capex spending mentioned did not revive this pivotal group and who is asking why?

Oil is above $48 again! Tanker group going to catch a bid?

Bond yields slid again near a new low for the move, 30 year near 4.7% !! the bonds have been compressing for months, the weight is for a huge move up in yields but not yesterday and maybe not tomorrow if the flight to safety is seen as bonds.......and isn't that trade getting crowded? isn't that trade and carry trade action compressing the yield curve?

McClellan Oscillator barely budged even with yesterdays large move down, but the move down came with new highs outpacing new lows. SMALL moves in OSCILLATOR are usually followed with large moves within a few days. Not sure which direction, but a negative day going into long weekend I would take as very bearish. WILL traders want to hold onto longs into weekend?

ALL kinds of excuses for selloff given, mostly "traders locking in gains from last year"

Let's let market tell us with action, today IMHO is rather pivotal.

D

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