http://tinyurl.com/3l6or If and when the 20 WK SMA turns down, it would be more evidence that a trend change is in place....as I Interpret the chart....even now, it has come down sharply, giving more resemblence to pattern that formed 2000 top and thereafter.
Bearish as I could be, even I will not expose myself any more at this time....I have tried to keep my contrarian positions managable....Should this be the start of something, I VOW not to get carried away and spend MORE time looking for VALUE to appear....and it will.VOLUME on decline is not to be ignored IMHO, highest volume or one of in more than a year? LIGHT volume decline would be ammo for bulls...in a decline...volume picking up is not.New highs almost dissapeared today, don;t look for help from the interest rate sensitive stuff going forward, IMHO.
ANother guy in Mortgage business as in my store this afternoon, and his impression was things were NOT good! imphatically so.He talked about how if even a 5% decline in housing values occurred many would be under water on their loans. How credit card debt was so high, so so many (and he sees it) stretched so far to get into a house. How so many used 2nd mortgages and house equity loans which if rates go up would be hurt.
When you fuel growth by consumption and debt....insead of investment and savings....you get the US.....you get trouble, misallocations.
ALso the 8 and 12 year cycles are topping and now turning down into 2005-2006 range, I again feel great caution is warranted.
Duratek
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