Sunday, March 13, 2005

IMPORTANT UPDATE

I will share a few comments from FRIDAY Elliott Wave Theory Update, Elliott Wave is a PAID subscriber service I am a member.

ALmost all Market Indexes recorded recorded KEY REVERSAL WEEKS! This occurs when an INDEX makes a NEW weekly HIGH but closes DOWN for the week.

Remember end of FEB I posted we were entering a Bradley TURN WINDOW that ended MArch 4th. IMHO this time frame marked a HIGH for the market during this period.

Interest rates are on the rise and have broken ABOVE key resistance areas, a negative for the market. FED meets again later this month, a qtr point rise is expected. MM funds are approaching utility yields and have little risk.

CRB index broke to new 24 year highs, ANY suggestion no inflation is either lying or stupidity.

Weakness among most HOME BUILDERS and FINANCIALS. There is little or NO leadership in market now. Relative strength has waned during rally.

Both Korea and Japan have publically mentioned need for diversification into other currencies, which either means SELLING US ASSETS or BUYING LESS dollars/bonds, IMHO.

That, the deficits, and a TIRED 20 PLUS yr bull mkt in bonds lead me to believe we have seen the near term lows in rates and we should be leading us to test 4.90% in 10 yr.

A MORE defensive position is warranted IMHO. or KEEP rolling the die.

Duratek

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