http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/winterwatch/WW_March22_05_A.htm Ian Gordon
The lessons of the past are going ignored by most. There is NO evidence of a resumption of a NEW CYCLICAL BULL MKT, only the waning days of one....the corection to initial wave down of a SECULAR BEAR MKT.
20 PLUS year bull mkt, in general, the bear market that follows a bull mkt is usually equal to what previous extremes and intensity was experienced.....a BEAR MKT which took stocks down to PE of 30 DIV YIELD OF 1.7% was indicative of previous market tops! And instead of previous bear markets where bearish plurality exceeded 40 weeks running, we have had maybe 3 weeks during entire bear market where that was true!
ONLY MASSIVE FED intervention turned the course.
Here we are today, BOOMING REAL ESTATE MKT! now at same % of household wealth as was the holding of equities at 2000 top! a bubble? 140% of GDP.
WHat did the FED actions and BUSH policies get us?
:New tax policies favoring the RICH.
New BAnkruptcy laws making it harder to disgorge debt.
A WAR PResidency.
POLICIES aimed at increasing CONSUMPTION......we cannot keep up with demand so we IMPORT MOST of what we need.....hence....loss of over 2.5 Million manufacturing jobs, and the building of CHina as SUper Power, in many cases companies have become marketing arms of these companies not even associated with design phase or any phase except marketing.
Total CREDIT MARKET DEBT exceeds any past EXTEME now near 315% of GDP! if we keep current pace we will end 2005 near 350%! UNHEARD OF IN MODERN TIMES.
GOV LIES and manipulates data to show LOW INFLATION, especially by NOT INCLUDING HOUSING PRICES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! instead using a RENTERS INDEX and THAT makes up nearly 25% of CPI !!!
(I have just raised MOST of my prices 10%) !!
FED action caused CHinese demand to grow for raw materials sending CRB to 20 plus yr highs along with OIL STEEL etc prices skyrocketing....WHERE do these price increases show?
OVER 30% of housing sold in 2004 for 2nd home or speculation!
Warning signs.......
GM's $300 BBBAAABILLION in debt near JUNK STATUS...
FANNIE MAE stock COLLAPSED.
WMT right at 52 week low....as is JPM !! The leaders of tech MSFT CSCO INTC have gone nowhere.
200 WK moving avg's are converging on 400 WK...not seen in 10 maybe over 20 years.
We are in RISING INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT.....this is NOT STOCK FRIENDLY! 3 steps and stumble rule are now 7 steps.
KUDLOW has OWN SHOW.
CRAMER has OWN SHOW, and is allowed to hype his own positions......he is shown as investment GURU.
Commercials abound for learning how to trade stocks and sell real estate for a living....anyone can do it!
LONG TERM TRIN ABOVE 1.0 55day and longer.
Now MOST of AMERICA OWN their HOME....has a NEW CAR.....we have excessively borrowed from FUTURE DEMAND, only gov spending left to spur economy?
With a SAVINGS RATE NEAR ZERO, and DEBT Up to their eyeballs....AMERICA is ILL PREPARED for a less than perfect landing.
all imho DURATEK
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