Monday, May 09, 2005

It's DIFFERENT THIS TIME VXO REDUX

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$vxo,uu[w,a]wallyiay[pb50!b10!f][vc60][iut!La12,26,9!Lh14,3]&pref=G

It has been OVER 2 years since the 50 crossed up thru the 200 SMA of the VIX, that was increased volatility seen as markets were getting washed out for a bottom

It spiked up once in 1998 (crisis) and then several times leading to mkt top in 1999- 2000.

In conclusion, even during GREATEST bull mkt we never saw a period where the volatility stayed so SUBDUED below the moving averages, in contrast, they spent MOST of their ABOVE.

Further leading me to see this rally a cyclical in nature in process of topping.

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