Wednesday, July 13, 2005

CHARTS TO MAKE YOU PONDER

Study these charts.

Approaching 2001/2002 highs RSI WEEKLY oversold, but strong uptrend intact. 2 long term avg's rising on top of each other.

TRAN MACD and RSI looking weak on the weekly chart, if 52 week closes below 90 week, I think we would have some trouble, the 52 week has provided the support so far. AN exponential 52 week, taking into account the go nowhere 2005 has begun to flatten.

DOW is sickly and offers a different view. from 2003 we see decending tops of RSI and MACD, not a healthy picture. INSTEAD of looking like the rise from 1995, it looks more like 1999 !!!! AM I wrong?

A NEW HIGH surpassing its rise into 2000 !!

NDX MACD has near flat lined since 2002 lows and first crest. ARE WE putting in WEAK right should of MASSIVE head and shoulders formation?

We are there! the downward trendline formed from 2000 high to 2005 high. Unlike FTSE, the merge of the 52 week into 90 week not a welcome sight! BOTH are flattening, unlike RISING FTSE averagess.

It helps to STEP AWAY from daily grind and see what is really happening.......IMHO

A low in VXO (VIX old formula) not seen since 2005?!!

HOWEVER, this is NOT BEARISH, we MUST keep open mind. I am talking about "trend
of put call ratio, it was trending DOWN into 1999/2000 tops, WHO thought it would EVER end? It is now trending up! This is at odds with VXO/VIX and SPX/VIX ratio's which ALSO are used to depict complacency or pessimism and are at extremes.

Only thing I can say is possibly after CRASH of markets from the bubble highs, to the lows, there IS pesimism about current rally. BUT, PUTS are DIRT CHEAP as shown by VIX readings...a CONUNDRUM?

And rallies on lower volume than declines.

OK last look, have you REALLY looked at every chart? CPC has moved lower since 2005 top, what me worry? We are looking at shorter moving averages. STILL, LOOK where 10 week avg was at 2000 top BELOW .50 !!! YIKES!!! This keeps bulls warm at night I think.

I don't know if this ONE THING, the rising put call ratio will be an issue or not....but it is there to consider along with HIGH VALUATIONS and LOW DIVIDEND YIELDS> how will it all get rectified?

Duratek

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