Thursday, September 22, 2005

THURSDAY IS HERE

Sony lays off 10,000, lowers estimates. Gold reaches new highs as Concensus Bullishness makes a near 9 yr high, moves looks parabolic.

Markets near 200 SMA support, so I would suspect a little bounce here as McClellan OSC is very oversold and 3 large down days in row bring large negative momentum on large volume.

Bonds continue to trade in a range, and is hard to determine where to next, economic weakness would seem to give lower yields the nod, but a guess in here with higher oil and such exerting inflationary pressures.

WMT makes a 6 yr low, is this reflective of the state of our most vulnerable consumers?

Unemloyment numbers will be discounted and blamed on Katrina, impossible to tell what else is going on.

I wonder to myself, look what has had its run, where is THE NEXT hot undiscovered thing?

WHat has run: financials, housing and related building materials etc, commodities (gold copper paper etc) retail, energy (oil, rigs, exploration etc tankers), small cap stocks, transportation (hit new high in 2005) and foreign stocks.

The thing most unloved and down in the mouth? SHORT FUNDS like URSA and RYVNX and the volatility index.

FACTOID of the DAY: WE JUST hit a record of bullishness 152 WKS straight of IIAA plurality of bulls (bulls - bears) orig set in 1998-2001 at 151 wks! AMAZING! LAST bear mkt which set up glorious 80's bull? followed a period in prior bear mkt of 40 plus weeks of BEARISH plurality, started at under 10 SPX PE, 6% DIV yield, 12% CASH in mutual funds and HIGH interest rates that could only come down. Americans HAD savings for nvestment.

Is why I say we have witnessed a strong cyclical bull that I feel is out of gas

Duratek

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