FAT FARM

Is the Consumer ready to join the "BIGGEST LOSER" show??? http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051105/wall_main.html?.v=4

Brudda's, WOOOOOOFFFFF Colonial WMSburg.....lets just say I've seen it, dont need to go back, PLUS ONE HOUR JAM to go 2 miles...eighhhhhh.

SO I pull off, I GOTTA PEE!!!!!!!!! McDonald's......hungry,,,,,dinner? HAndicapped person behind counter...OK..UNTIL she came out and said "MAY I HELP YOUUUUUUUUUU??? AFTER SHE licked something off her arm!! LOL NO....THANK YOUUUUUUUUU!!!!

Market....i think she got a short term pulback comin', then 200-300 point spurt could take 2-3 weeks, maybe hold up into DEC not sure. Somewhere in here I intend to double up on RYNVNX, and go LONG BONDS.

During this period, the market has rallied, in the face of rising bond yields, falling VIX, but we wont see a new low in VIX. And I am not sure we see a new high in yields, but the market isant going to sell off IMHO if money isnt being diverted into bonds at 23% bullish opinion.

EWT thinks the current rise in rates ENDS with a SPIKE, that should bring bullishness down to near recent lows of 10% previous high in yields. That would certainly be SUPER sign to enter with reduced RISK.....could falling rates accompany a rally in stocks? I dont think so because up til now, the mkt is reflecting economic strength (3.8 GDP) not expected weakness....."LOOK how good we're doing even after all this other shit?!"

This FASCADE will be shattered by either WEAK CONSUMER SPENDING for XMAS, or some other event I cant know.

EVERY TIME GAS has reached current levels of price a RECESSION has FOLLOWED (thurs King), they are fricked LOADED TO THE GILLS with inventory for a big xmas......the have's are doing great, but the have nots run the economy.

Housing has topped. Dont know if consumer has cried uncle on credit yet.

WHY THE WORST IS AHEAD?

We want to think the bear mkt is over, but when you look at historic charts we know this is just wishful thinking. TOTAL CREDIT MARKET DEBT carries itself each day to higher historic levels. GAs has fallen but reg is stil near $2.30 and most cars take Premium near $2.50, reg was near $1.69.

Trucking may be going crazy as all this XMAS crap is being shipped out of warehouses to stores. WHAT IF GRINCH SHOWS UP INSTEAD?

SO, maybe XMAS will be unexpected HIT? VOLUME in market argues for continuation of rally. Slowing here will be initial sign. Fall in retailer another one. Falling stocks accompanies by falling commodities oil etc another one still.

Recession dont occur with rising commodities, reduced demand causes them to fall. XLE< oil ,COPPER arguably may have topped. SO has the Cyclical BULL expansion.

Hasnt it been fueld by the housing bull? IS there another leg up there? JUST LIKE that consumers quickly lose interest in fuel efficient cars, as gas drops, only worry was of getting it? Shortages? (PER FRI USA TODAY)

4.6% 10 yr is NOT luring investors away from stocks? hmmmmmmmm. but it has sadly outperformed stocks in general.

Bond prices usually rally when economic data looks weak, when BEAR MKT roars again, what better place to reside then there?

CONSUMER is in worst shape then ever before, no savings, nothing to fall back on, loaded with houses cars and stuff, past Recession and Bear mkt was highlighted by expanded debt, not a righting of ship and getting "house" in order. There are a lot of first going on here.

Future have 3 more rate increases priced in, so unless we get HUGE spike in yields will be difficult to time an entry into bonds. IF for any reason yields approach 5%, it will be considered a done deal they wil keep rising and we will get our 10% or lower sentiment reading.

Then I would say who is left to sell? OUR FOREIGN FRIENDS? Like I said, we will probably be among those negative, buying right is never easy.

GOOG near $110 B mkt cap, what a love afair. What FEAR? is that not a poster child for buying to sell higher?

EVERY similar spike in energy costs has yielded a Recession, the one we are going through the worst of bunch, so far 70 degree NOV has made us forget winter energy prices. But Winter IS coming. And so is K-Winter, I am sorry to say, and you guys know this cycle is LONG LONG overdue.

The FED has made a mockery of FREE MARKET rules, HELL TO PAY>

D