http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/oprevecn.htmlIt doesn't take a genius to see the relationship, now how with near $60 oil for better part of year does US GDP hold up? When EVERY time in the past gas soared to such levels a Recession followed? everytime.
Things are different now?
Yes, they are! Historic endebted consumer and zero to negative savings rate.Consumer spending is near 75% of our economy, how sad. If consumers keep up their track record and expand XMAS spending, is there little doubt where that money is going to come from?
ANALYSIS of secular bear and bull markets from 1900 *(live link)
"The big question is now are we in the beginning stages of a 4th Secular Bear Market which started in 2000. The average length of the previous 3 Secular Bear Markets was 18 years with a minimum of 16 years and a maximum of 21 years. Thus if you add 18 years to the year 2000 and take + or - 3 years on either side then the next Secular Bull Market may not begin until sometime in the 2015 to 2021"
CYCLICAL BULLS "also had four cyclical bull markets that ranged from 21 to 38 months in length and the Dow"
Current bull began OCT 2002, so it has run for about 37 months! MY FRIENDS is that long in the tooth or what?
Secular Bears tend to follow Secular Bulls, last bull was SECULAR, longest running in history, what should follow??? a 3 yr correction that only took stocks to trailing 30X SPX?? 2% Dividend yields? NO!! Bottoms are made with single digit SPX and 6% yields.
Trade, be happy, be aware what kind of market conditions you are in, IMHO
Duratek
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