Appreciate your commetns jbr,
I am happy we are finally getting a decent rally, but I think it's being sold my friends. Everybody feeling good looking at China during the Olympics......their buying our dollars, I mean who else is? The US $$ is flying like a eagle...into the blue skies.
i tried to show the correlation between oil price and S&P 500 price movement, I know what we have seen as far as btotoms in previous bear markets, like PE ratio and SPX dividend yield and we haven't seen it.......left link to cycles for thought as to what might come.
I see as I try to post this, and started 30 minutes ago, Dow has faded.......That BIll MIller has had $2Billion withdrawn from his Legg Value TRust by Mass State Trust Fund......given over to hedgies....sighted bad performance....and hes a stock pickers GURU....old ideads stop working?....well maybe yes, his time may come again.....this BEAR has LOTS of work to do
Toyota dealership, been doing well in past...laying off 3 mechanics...unusual for them...hard to sell cars right now...
D
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d
My current thoughts...
The world suddenly recognizes global weakness and global recession risks (even though signs of no decoupling were there all along).
So dollar rallies as a result.
It's a race to the bottom, now more people recognize that everyone is in the race, the US was just leading. Doesn't sound like a reason to celebrate to me.
People finally woke up to demand destruction so the commodity bubble bursts - so more strength for the dollar.
Global players see dollar strength and their currencies weakening so they figure it's time to shift assets to US equities, hence our equities bounce.
However, real estate assets are still declining, credit is still tightening, commercial real estate is weakening, consumers continue to cut back and are moving into saving mode, the Fed's balance sheet continues to shrink...
Falling asset prices, continued de-leveraging and credit contraction, and rising dollar... sounds like deflation to me.
Everyone is currently so happy that commodities are finally falling and the dollar is rising. They don't understand why. Once they do, they won't be so happy anymore. Things won't even be close to improving until the bottom callers go away for good.
jbr
jbr,
I think you have a clear picture of our situation, I hope as this may come up in conversation with people you know and meet they will listen to you. Richard Russel once said in a Bear mkt, the one's who LOSE THE LEAST WIN...as we all lose.
My gut and TA were looking for $110 OIL to halt ST decline....today feels like ST bottom as last I looked oil reversed from RED to around $115....so maybe we get more sideways movement here.
When CREDIT CONTRACTS I dont see how that can signal bullishness for equities in general, there is one thing for sure, by most measures I watch, by my Lowry's service,I think it way premature to be bottom calling here.
RR also talked about how the US $ would rally if deflation took hold, most debts paid in dollars....we probably have the Chinese as major dollar prop...I just dont see them as sellers of US treasuries....kill the golden goose.
Once a trend gets going tough to turn it around...
D
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