WEEKEND REPORT "HOW DRY I AM"

http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm cost of shipping RAW MATERIALS keeps dropping and as you can see, has broken several uptrend lines.

My BMI (bear mkt index or indicator) has fallen from 60.55 to 55.84 nowhere near showing me a bottom IMHO. Understanding bear rallies can be swift and violent and fun to ride, is what is occuring now one developing of lasting nature?

One of my hesitations thinking so (even as mkt held up OK after dreaful news and data IMHO)
is that we haven't seen the FEAR INDEXES register a washout has occurred and that being said leaves door open for rally to die without much warning.....we have not seen PANIC BUYING (90% up days) and better yet it should occur SOON after a series of 90% DOWN volume days....understanding how the market goes from greed to fear and back again is one of the main basis for staying on right side....and we use past history as a "GUIDE" to alerting us when the greater possibility of this has occured.

If one has never used or is not familiar with technical analysis it is understanding that one might be sleptical or outright dismiss it, that would be bad and tragic mistake.....all those BLACK BOXES out there run off some kinda proprietary algorythm.

For now my BMI is showing lower highs.....but most recent low of 42.57 in JUly is higher than MArch's 39.66, I am not sure what it means yet, but will be looking to see A) if lower high is violated or B) if we can make a lower low....than Bear is back big time and I am waiting to see this indicator bottom along with other helpful details.

Economies slow, and this is happening worldwide. ...note China mkt has been cut in hALF and is DEEP in Bear mkt....unraveling from spiraling inflation and a US slowdown.

Tax coffers are DECLINING at Federal (sales tax income tax etc) and local levels.....think of ALL the revenue buying and selling a house had been bringing State coffers.

Briefing.com headlines
Headline Hits
July Payrolls a Bit Better than Expected
GM Posts Massive $15.5 Billion Loss
Biogen, Elan Tumble on Drug Setback
Chevron Misses Earnings Mark
Spots on Sun's Latest Report

For SEVEN Months in a row we have had JOB LOSSES, has anyone heard any official say "we're in a Recession?"

Maybe I AM missing something (does the BLS use voodoo or add some special sausce to change the actual simple math one can use?) but after I add the jobs (gov and education) to the job losses (real economy sectors) I come up with 113,000 jobs lost.....check it out, let me know what you think. headline number was ONLY mins 51K

LASTLY you owe it to yourselves to read (at least in summation near bottom) DOUG NOLAND'S CREDIT BUBBLE REPORT, it is so well written and documented to make it hard to be refuted.

He starts out in summary: http://prudentbear.com/index.php/CreditBubbleBulletinHome

The Uppers:

The U.S. Bubble Economy has burst. I sympathize with those who would argue this is old news. But the probabilities are now high that GDP turns decisively negative during the second half – if it hasn’t already. Instead of the year-long Credit crisis showing signs of improvement or even stabilization, a further tightening of Credit Availability is taking hold broadly throughout the economy.

That's all I got for this week, here is on a sad note I will end wishing g-d speed and healing to all those hurting or feeling the pain of losing someone dear to them...in the last 2 weeks I have know of the loss 3 people, the deceased are my step mother Pat R, my bass teachers mother, and my most productive sales person's mom (last 2 both past Wed)

IN a lot of ways, you don;t know what you GOT til it's gone.....contact someone you haven't spoken to in awhile......

Duratek