Selling exhaustion? 4 90% DOWNERS followed by 90% UPPER THURSDAY
That is certainly possible, these downers interupted bby throw in the kitchen sink bailout backstop attempt.
My studies tell me good chance of multi month rally coming (not STRAIGHT UP of course) and it is possible given Pres cycle this bounce could last until next MArch (remember 2000 top here?)
WE have Transports CLOSE to all time high not confirming recent DOW LOWS.
WE HAVE SHORT RULE
Will they extend thru OCT? that decision could be important
NO certainty to anything but I think at least 2 more downer stabs of LARGE MAGNATUDE AWAIT US into 2009 which SHOULD lead to BEAR BOTTOM.
I am considering several actions, but know this, rallies of LONG DURATION exist in Bear market some even 4-6 months long
Just using MA'S study and divergences say ultimate bottom may be somewhere in the distance.
None of this may help you, in what to do, but I hope we get MORE clarity in future months as to just WHERE WE ARE IN THE CYCLE OF THE BEAR
MY BEAR reading of 31.93 was within .06 from 2001 MARCH low reading of 31.87 at first I figured this was same as 911 selling climax....but it wsn't !!!
OMG what else other than what we know could be lurking???? OR AM I STONE COLD DEAD WRONG AND WE SHOULD PUT OUR PARTY HATS ON?
WHAT came after 911 which caused us to draft past old lows? WHAT happened in 1930 which caused a TREMEDOUS DECLINE BLOWING PAST THE CRASH LEVEL of 1929?
WHAT WOULD SHOW WORLD efforts have failed and deflation wins over INFLATION ATTEMPTS?
FED and WORLD GOV'S are buying up ASSETS like never before, a KITCHEN SINK ALL IN EFFORT that doesn't hold us at least at these levels....well could lead to the ALL OUT PANIC where "get me out at any level" bear bottoms are made of....this last low was TOO SELECTIVE in its selling.....IMHO
Duratek
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7 comments:
A good blog, this guy speaks the truth regarding corporate governance.
http://www.icahnreport.com/
d -
Yes, I agree those are some of the key questions.
First they fired their revolver, then their rifle, then their bazooka, and now the detonated their nuke.
If it seems to work (perception is reality) then could the dynamic turn virtuous despite the massive deflationary forces?
If confidence falters for any reason, do they have anything left to up the ante (shock and awe)?
It seems too easy for this to be the end of our problems but we should remain open to that possibility. The consensus is it's over, so that makes me worry. Too much relief.
It's hard to believe they can prevent the housing fundamentals from finishing their right side of the bubble correction trajectory (ie, price to income etc). Will the banks be willing to sell at realistic prices or will the Treasury be willing to overpay? Regardless, how will this keep prices from falling as inventory remains high? The only thing this will really accomplish on the housing front is to make new loans available to qualified buyers. However I wonder how many qualified buyers there are anymore and if those buyers want to wait a bit linger for prices to fall? And will interest rates rise due to the massive deficit spending and offset the positives?
jbr
jbr
Well thought out as usual.
My biece and husband tried to get house on cheap outside of DC...didn't work out but they said they were waiting for lower prices.....
In OCT 3 of my MAIN suppiers are RAISING my prices (office furn) by a whopping 8% !!! I DO NOT EAT THIS BUT PASS ALONG (or fill in with cheaper Chinese imports who have NOT raised prices)
Many articles on CNN, and I suggest gettign weekend BAron's today and read ABleson etc. One such title "Going for Broke" "Pain of develedging will be DEEP and WIDE" and "Bailout or NOT, Credit will be CRUNCHED" !
Though I am "leaning" on a long position (only using etf's)I amlooking for a particular GAP to be filled then off we go.....
or
CAN the skepticism and narrowness (what was dead now alive) of rally be its undoing as not enough buyers keep stepping up.....I have some targets...and am expecting SOME retrace to fill gap...HOPE HOPE
If MORE stocks react well then maybe we get that multi month rise
I am DUBIOUS and SUSPICIOUS wheels back on cart.
I LOOK for some proof in INCREASED willingness of my customers to step up
What kind of business are YOU in jbr? what part of country do you live? Do your friends and family talk about these issues?
My LOWRY'S service will issue a "conditional BUY" program IF buying meets their levels of cautious entry....will keep you informed and good luck my friend!
Thanks for continued reading and comments
D
D -
Thanks for your comments and insights.
You asked about me - I am now retired but formerly founded a medical technology company and before that was a physician. Now a student of the markets, like you. I live in the Pacific Northwest near Seattle.
Thanks again for your your excellent work on this blog.
jbr
jbr
Thanks for sharing, I am honored such an intelligent person finds my blog of some worth....and knowing you are reading I will always do my best to make that worth the time.
As you know I am a VP of an Office Furn Co. here in B'more and been here for 30 years...rose up from nobody....manage 30 plus employees...sales at best were around $10M and growing, now less of course....I am trying to be ONE of the survivors...and save existing jobs.
I used to be swing for the fences, risky gambler last BUBBLE....in 2000 I took myself OUT of the markets...saw BEAR and started down the road of learning last 10 years that got me here, fiercely GUARDING, PROTECTING my assets.
One of hardest things I ever tried to do is shake RUST off and become more willing to take "some" and begin trading again but to some extent this is a NEW ME, and I use Scott Trade with a seperate level of funds AWAY from main capital which is ALL in a TREASURY MM.
I have invested in my companies warehouse 2 years ago so far a good move...I sold 1/2 of it to reduce overhead...have 30,000 sq ft left
ALL my management are meeting today to plan, discuss,open floor...look to 2009 also.
As I have said, and you see my few charts and comments, I LIKE Technical Analysis and have become pretty good with it.ALmost all my close market gals and guys use it.
I have GREAT subs like Lowry's for reliable data...and I have been on right side of mkt...
I cannot scream exactly what to do, I just share what I SEE and I find artciles I think worth reading.....to help anyone fiding me open their mind.
You are smart guy, understand the "landscape" it can be VERY confusing...and for most part I THINK now is not time to GAMBLE WILD, but to make sure you protect what you have for the future.
Trading is FUN, but I may have dif reason for doing it now,I want to be ready to accept risk LONG for NEXT BULL when time is right because as much as I seem BEARISH (for good reason) my HOPE is to one day ride the bull for all it's worth like so many....but NEVER to be LTBH when a BEAR is present.
Take care,
D
D -
Thanks for sharing more about yourself, you are doing wonderfully and have your head screwed on straight. Too bad more people aren't like you - we have FAR too many gamblers in our society today - but that will change by the time this is over.
I agree about TA but I prefer to use it as confirmation of an overall macro thesis at the market level and also think it's a requirement to time entries which are more fundamentally based (since it's too easy to be early or get out too late). For brief periods (weeks to months) the market can and often does get it wrong, only to be slapped back to reality by fundamentals.
Regarding Treasury MM funds, have you looked into Treasury Direct? It's the only way I know to easily hold individual Tbill IN YOUR NAME. If you Treasury MM fund is FIDC or SIPC then you are probably OK, but, for example, last week the Reserve Fund had problems and even their ALL TREASURY MM fund was FROZEN due to too many redemptions since one of their OTHER funds broke the buck due to some Lehman debt that went bad - they are saying it's frozen only for a week but we'll see...
jbr
jbr
I may have to check on that, also being held (so far) at M and T bank seems to be an OK situation.
For the piddly 1% plus Im getting, I Guess I could go to CASH CASH or buy a few SHORT TERM funds....I want to be LIQUID for THE MOMENT.
I am thinking given action of gold, we get a pullback but I am watching certain levels for STRONG entry, I see no way out for BUCK in the end.....so when all else fails, gold and probably gold miners will get enormous money flows...as we witnessed, that move threw it back above what could have been a monthly sell signal and perhaps killing the gold bull....I have wonderful chart of dollar showing its rise and repudiation will share.
Thanks again for kind comments, and glad you are here and some of my other financial buddies are spreading the word....saves them time trying to explain the almost unexplainable!
SSO is right at thatgap fill $54... not sure Im going to try to play.....
Paulson bailout plan? 3 PAGES!!!!!! glad he's a detailed oriented guy! haaa take care
D
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