A CHANGE IN THE WIND?

Are we OUT of the woods? IS IT TIME TO BUY THE STOCK MARKET?

It is true the mkt can see 9 months ahead. It is my humble opinion we are in a DEPRESSION of some type, the word RECESSION just doesn't seem to cut it to describe what we are witnessing and the MAdoff style destruction of capital.

Eact time a Recession appears, a Bubble BUrsts, the men in white do not want to feel the pain, do not want to heal the prior excesses, so a bigger and badder bubble MUST be inflated.....and I think THIS TIME they really did it. 3 of the top 5 investment banks went POOF. C and BAC have been reduced to penny stocks and the lie has been exported all around the globe, bankrupting some countries like Iceland.

"We must STIMULATE the world economy" G20 meeting coming up, will the rest of the world follow the US lead?

Household debt levels in 3rd qtr were 96% of GDP and 130% of disposable income. A more historic level would be 60%.

WHAT inning are we in for deleveraging? Return to the norm?

Rally predicated on 2 things....C profitable? Retail sales "better than expected?"

from 2002
S
&P Says February Retail Sales Shortfall Not a Set Back for Economy

NEW YORK, NY -- (March 14, 2002) -- Standard & Poor's, a global leader in financial information and investment analysis, today said that the Government's Retail Sales figures for February do not indicate a setback for economic recovery. According to data released by the US Government this morning, retail sales figures fell short of market expectations in February. Finding the official numbers still quite respectable despite failing to meet lofty expectations, Standard & Poor's concludes that consumer spending remains robust. Additional commentary from Standard & Poor's can be found at the subscriber website, http://www2.standardandpoors.com
"Our GDP forecast for the first quarter of 2002 remains at 4.5%, with a solid 2.8% growth rate in real consumption,

**CONSUMER NEVER HEALED LAST RECESSION!!

Fallen Angels

NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) March 10, 2009--Globally, 82 entities, with rated debt totaling US$209.13 (€166.43) billion, are listed as potential fallen angels, a new 18-year high, said an article published today by Standard & Poor's. This surpasses the previous record reached last month of 75 potential fallen angels, defined as entities rated 'BBB-' with either a negative outlook or ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications, according to the article, titled "Global Potential Fallen Angels (Premium)." By comparison, 2008 averaged 47 potential fallen angels each month, increasing steadily since the second quarter of 2007.

Sectors poised to lead fallen-angel incidence include nonwater utilities with 10 entities, followed by consumer products and banks with nine entities each, and media and entertainment and homebuilders/real estate companies with six entities each. By debt volume, the line-up among potential fallen angels is led by finance companies, followed by the automotive and retail and restaurants sectors.

CREDIT CRUNCH IN EARLY STAGES
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/media/Evidence_Crunch_Time_02_19_09.pdf

KING report for WED
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/is-this-really-the-bottom/

RETAIL SALES A SURPRISE?
Like the January report, the February retail sales report provided some positive surprises. In particular, total retail sales declined just 0.1% versus a consensus estimate that called for a 0.5% decline. Excluding autos, retail sales increased 0.7% versus an expected decline of 0.1%.

Once again, increases were evident in February across most sectors. Gasoline station sales led the way with a 3.4% jump, which was tied to the 8.0% month-to-month increase in average gas prices. Clothing & clothing accessories followed with a 2.8% jump as bargain hunting continued in the post-holiday period.
The areas of weakness won't surprise too many. Motor vehicle and parts dealers led there, with a 4.3% decline in February, followed by food and beverage stores (-0.7%), food service and drinking places (-0.2%), and building materials (-0.2%).

*WHY are GAS SALES IN THIS FIGURE????????????????

Markets are rallying because it is NOW seen as economic downturn may IMPROVE sooner than expected based on the last few tidbits......sure

SHOULD I decided to speculate long I would consider etf's like SSO 2X SPX......I could focus on ONE THING and not multiple companies...and set STOP LOSS to CONTROL RISK....I may wait for 2nd mouse....

D