Sunday, February 07, 2010

NOTHING IS AS IT SEEMS

OK, we are firmly OVERSOLD, had reversal FRI, back above 10K DOW....and here comes normal MONDAY jiggyness....let's review where we stand.


OK we had VIX hit 80.....so we ran to the extreme.....and we ended with historical rise to rebound from near historical drop and rise in volatility.

We have had record intervention, GS and friends using free money thru their trading desks and hedge funds....BUYING the mkt....pushing it up on declining volume.....primary uptrend with MANY MORE 90% downers than uppers. A resilient VIX. Now a solid $ rally.

Supposed FED QE folly ending in a matter of weeks. Bank lending is still declining (not supporting any theory of sustainable economy) nor rebound in income or cessation of home value declines.

Commercial real estate and 2nd wave mortgage reset crisis in front of us....find out addt'l 1.2 million jobs vanished bringing total to over 8 million since 2007 top.

State budgets 100's millions in red....taxes may be on rise.....harsh words towards wall street, friction with largest debtor China over arms sales and more. A gov that in face of budget shortfalls keeps spending more we don't have.

NO PROOF anything they have done so far has worked more than either slow the decline or help a very narrow sector....IMHO $trillions wasted leaving little ammo left in quiver in a ZERO INT RATE environment. A market SPX dividend yield of just 1.9%

In a climate where majority are seeking safety and yield....and want to pay down debt.....that is exactly the one area not being stimulated. If you want to have economic recovery....give the majority some YIELD...and who knows they MIGHT SPEND IT!!

Maladjusted, manipulated...castrated......in a world where nothing is as it seems, and no DECENT PLAN to get us out of it.......with all these market anomalies......nothing is at it seems....is nothing to be trusted?

If we see the US $ and its relationship since March lows of 2009 is now perhaps reversing, the US $ is the one thing IMHO that should be charted and given some good weight as to where we MIGHT be headed.

And how about all those MONDAY RALLIES? I read where 80% of ALL POINT GAINS SINCE MARCH LOWS occurred on Mondays.

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